Bye Bye Buy List!
by Phil - March 18th, 2010 6:15 pm
Oh, I have tried!
I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I’m OUT! Oh, I’ll be back, we’ll set up a new, aggressive $100K Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it’s going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines.
We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I’m not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it’s a very good time to take a break. We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:
- Step 1) Take Money
- Step 2) Run
There - isn’t that simple? Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we’ll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don’t and the market looks stronger through April earnings. Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays. Not much else to talk about - let’s just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):
AET (12/21 - $34.04, 1/9 - $32.70, 1/31 - $29.97, 3/18 - $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that’s too wild for us to stick with. Our last batch is right on target:
- Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 - up 83%
- Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
- 2012 $25/35 bull call spread at $5, now $5.40 - Keeper if we sell July $34 calls to cover at $2.35
- 2011 $22.50s at $9.10 - now $11.60 - up 27%
- Apr $27 puts sold for $1.75, now .01 - up…
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Citi-Bull Sheds Just Under a Quarter Million Put Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 18th, 2010 4:21 pm
Today’s tickers: C, ERTS, ATVI, DNDN, HIG, DD, RCL, SFD & AMR
C - Citigroup, Inc. – One investor established a mammoth bullish stance on Citigroup in the first 20 minutes of the current trading session. Citigroup’s shares at the time of the transaction were trading at approximately $4.05, but have since slipped lower and are down 0.50% to $4.03 as of 2:45 pm (ET). It looks like the Citi-bull sold 240,000 put options outright at the April $4.0 strike to take in a premium of $0.16 per contract. Premium received on the sale, which represents maximum potential profits, amounts to $3.840 million to the investor if Citigroup’s shares trade above $4.00 through expiration day. The short stance in put options implies the investor is willing to have 24 million shares of the underlying stock put to him at an effective price of $3.84 each should the puts land in-the-money at expiration.
ERTS - Electronic Arts, Inc. – An enormous bullish debit call spread purchased on video game software publishing company, Electronic Arts, Inc., indicates one big options investor is expecting shares of the underlying stock to rally sharply ahead of expiration in January 2011. Electronic Arts’ shares are up 2.40% this afternoon to $18.57. The options player purchased approximately 61,000 call options at the January 2011 $25 strike for an average premium of $0.60 apiece, and sold roughly the same number of contracts at the higher January 2011 $30 strike for $0.14 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to $0.46 per contract, thus yielding maximum potential profits of $4.54 apiece if shares surge through $30.00 by expiration day next year. ERTS shares must increase at least 37% from the current price in order for the investor to break even on the trade at $25.46. Maximum profit acquisition of $4.54 per contract, or total gains of $27.694 million, requires a 61.55% rally in shares to $30.00 by January expiration. The 122,000 call options utilized in the transaction represent a staggering 44.58% of total existing open interest on the stock of 273,639 contracts.
ATVI - Activision Blizzard, Inc. – The producer of online, console and hand-held games received a vote of confidence by one large options player anticipating bullish movement in the price of its shares through expiration in January 2011. Activision’s shares rallied 2.12% to $12.05 in the first half of the trading session. The optimistic investor established a massive bullish risk reversal on…
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Investor Removes Comcast Strangle to Bank Profits
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 19th, 2010 4:33 pm
Today’s tickers: CMCSA, HSY, GLD, ORCL, XRT, ERTS, FXI, PFE, SII & JCP
CMCSA - Comcast Corp. – A large-volume short strangle established at the beginning of the month on the entertainment and communications services firm was unraveled today, yielding one investor a nice chunk of change heading into the weekend. Comcast’s shares are up 1% to $15.89 in afternoon trading. It appears the trader originally sold roughly 35,000 calls at the July $17 strike for a volume-weighted average premium of $0.74 apiece in combination with the sale of 35,000 puts at the July $14 strike for a premium of $0.74 each. The original transaction likely occurred on February 4, 2010, and yielded a gross premium of $1.48 per contract to the trader. Today the investor purchased-to-close the short strangle, buying back the calls at a reduced premium of $0.60 each, and buying the put options for $0.56 apiece. The trader paid a gross premium of $1.16 to close out the short stance. Therefore, the investor walks away with net profits of $0.32 per contract for a grand total of $1.120 million. It is important to note, however, that the trader left a great deal of money sitting on the table. Comcast’s shares are still trading within the boundaries of the $14/$17 strike prices required for maximum profit potential. The investor would have accumulated profits of $1.48 per contract – a total of $5.180 million – if CMCSA shares remained range-bound and if the trader held the position through expiration. Perhaps this individual unraveled the strangle in anticipation of greater volatility in the price of the underlying stock going forward.
HSY - The Hershey Company – Bullish investors satisfied sugar cravings this afternoon by devouring Hershey call options. Shares of the chocolatier rallied 2.70% to $39.88 today. Option traders picked up 1,600 calls at the March $41 strike for a premium of $0.47 apiece. The higher March $42.5 strike attracted greater volume with more than 5,300 calls purchased for a premium of $0.23 per contract. Higher-strike call buyers are positioned to accumulate profits if Hershey’s share price exceeds its current 52-week high of $42.25, attained back on July 23, 2009, by expiration next month. These optimistic individuals profit if shares increase 7.15% from the current price to surpass the effective breakeven point on the calls at $42.73.
GLD - SPDR Gold Trust ETF – Shares of the gold exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the price of gold…
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Wild Weekly Wrap Up - Only Halfway Through January!
by Phil - January 16th, 2010 8:29 am
Wheee, what a ride!
The week can be neatly summed up by my 1:35 comment to Members in yesterday’s chat, summed the week up quite nicely as I said: "So funny, a whole week of gains I thought were ridiculous wiped out in 4 hours." Of course it’s easy to laugh when you play the market correctly - as I had said in the morning post, we had cashed out into Thursday’s run up and planned on going bearish through the weekend but it turned out we got our sell-off early, jumping the $100K Portfolio, for example, up 12% in one day - enough to send us back to cash rather than risk a weekend reversal.
We laid the groundwork for this little sell-off in last weekend’s posts as we put up an aggressive Buy List for Members but in my regular weekend post we emphasized the need to cover our buys with "Disaster Hedges" as we were heading to the tops I had predicted when I published the "Last Charts of the Decade," where I set resistance target of Dow 10,457, S&P 1,135, Nasdaq 2,314, NYSE 7,389 and Russell 638. As you can see, I pretty much hit them on the head, other than the Dow but that’s because our year-old 5% rule calculations did not account for the change in the Dow that replaced C and GM with TRV and CVX, who added about 100 Dow points since their inclusion so we started using 10,549 this month and we’ll make it 10,557 for today’s chart, which makes perfect sense looking at this group (I added the Transports as they are fell right off our 2,000 target, giving us the early warning that things were not right):
As you can see, the 5% Rule rules! I will apologize for being such a grump this week but the rally was really starting to annoy me as it was so blatantly forced up through our levels without a proper test that is was really getting me down about the markets. I don’t mind that the markets are manipulated, that’s been going on since markets were invented - it’s stupid and destructive manipulation that bothers me, the kind that, long term, destroys more investor confidence than it builds and squanders capital resources on the "wrong" companies (and now, ETFs!).
In this case, very precious investor capital is being steered into commodities, which is a very poor use of recessionary capital as is inflating the money supply to…
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IYR-Investor Constructs Three-Legged Bullish Combination Play Despite Declining Market
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 12th, 2010 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: IYR, PFE, FXI, WFT, UUP, JPM, GLD, ERTS, STJ & PVH
IYR – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF – Bullish options activity on the IYR flies in the face of bearish momentum across equities in the broader market today. The investor responsible for the optimistic positioning in the February contract appears little concerned with the current 2% decline in the value per IYR share today to $45.31. It looks like the trader sold a put credit spread in order to offset the cost of buying out-of-the-money call options. The three-legged combination involved the sale of 10,000 puts at the February $45 strike for a premium of $1.56 each, spread against the purchase of 10,000 puts at the lower February $42 strike for $0.65 apiece. The net credit of $0.91 per contract received on the credit spread is more than enough to cover the cost of the 10,000 calls purchased at the February $48 strike for $0.55 each. After establishing all three legs of the spread, the trader pockets $0.36 per contract. The investor keeps the full $0.36 only if IYR’s shares trade above $45.00 through expiration next month. Additional profits amass only if shares of the fund rally 6% from the current price to surpass $48.00. We note that the investor responsible for the trade may suffer maximum potential losses of $2.64 per contract if the price of the underlying slips to $42.00 by expiration day.
PFE – Pfizer, Inc. – A bullish risk reversal on the global pharmaceutical company today suggests shares may rally to $20.00 by expiration in June. Pfizer’s shares withstood downward market pressure for the majority of the trading session, and even climbed slightly higher in earlier trading, but edged 0.75% lower to $18.70 by 2:15 pm (EDT). The reversal play involved the sale of 10,000 in-the-money put options at the June $20 strike for a premium of $2.07 apiece, spread against the purchase of 10,000 out-of-the-money call options at the same strike for $0.70 in premium. The investor receives a net credit of $1.37 per contract, which he keeps if PFE’s shares rally up to $20.00 by expiration. The short sale of put options implies the trader is willing to have shares put to him at an effective price of $18.63 each. However, the investor would optimally like to see shares rally at least 7% over the current price to surpass the breakeven price…
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 10th, 2009 5:08 pm
Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS
GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.
CF - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock rebounded due to news that Clearwire…
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Railroad Bulls Expect CSX Recovery on Track
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 5th, 2009 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: CSX, VALE, ERTS, JNPR, BRCD & ORCL
CSX - The supplier of rail-based transportation services attracted option optimists to the November contract today amid a 2.5% rally in shares to $42.68. Bullishness was expressed through put selling as investors appear to expect CSX to continue to thrive through expiration in November. Approximately 7,300 puts were sold short at the November 40 strike for an average premium of 2.03 apiece. Traders selling these contracts retain the full credit as long as shares of CSX remain higher than $40.00 through expiration next month. Investors shorting the puts pocket the 2.03 credit in exchange for bearing the risk that shares decline beneath $40.00. If the puts land in-the-money by expiration, traders short the puts will have shares of the underlying stock put to them at price of $40.00 apiece. Therefore, losses begin to accumulate if shares fall 11% from the current price and breach the breakeven point to the downside at $37.97. – CSX Corp. –
VALE - Investors in the Brazilian metals and mining company enjoyed a more than 3% rally in shares to $23.63. The current share price represents a new 52-week high for the stock, which is one nickel greater than the previous 52-week high of $23.58, attained back on September 23, 2009. We observed bullish sentiment in the November contract where one investor established a risk reversal by shorting puts to finance the purchase of calls. The optimistic play involved the sale of 8,000 puts at the November 21 strike for a premium of 60 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of 8,000 calls at the higher November 25 strike for an average premium of 71 cents per contract. The net cost of assuming a long call position amounts to 11 pennies apiece. Shares of Vale must rise another 6% by expiration for the investor to begin to accumulate profits above the breakeven point at $25.11. – Vale SA –
ERTS - Shares at the game-maker are higher by 3% at $18.89 today making the options action a little curious. An investor appears to be writing nearby in-the-money puts in exchange for buying those at out-of-the-money strikes at later expiries. An investor sold 13,700 November puts at the 19 strike for a 1.50 premium, meaning he’d have shares put to him if they remain below the strike in seven weeks time. In the meantime he insures worried ERTS traders and takes in…
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Transportation ETF Sees Bearish Options Combo
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 23rd, 2009 5:05 pm
Today’s tickers: IYT, WYN, BBBY, XLU, ERTS, MSFT, ALTH & MT
IYT - Shares of the IYT are currently down 0.5% to $71.43. One option trader appears to have exchanged 19,500 contracts on the ETF to take a bearish stance through expiration in December. The three-legged trade executed on the IYT today exceeds the existing open interest of 13,323 lots by more than 6,000 contracts. The trader likely holds a long position in the underlying shares of the fund because of the placement of the options play. It appears the investor funded a put spread by selling out-of-the-money calls short. He sold 6,500 calls at the December 76 strike for 2.45 apiece. The put spread involved the purchase of 6,500 puts at the December 73 strike for 5.10 each against the sale of 6,500 puts at the lower December 67 strike for 2.70 per contract. The investor is left with a net credit of 5 pennies, which he will ultimately retain in full as long as shares of the IYT remain beneath $76.00 through expiration. Additional gains – or downside protection on a long stock position – have already kicked in for the trader given the breakeven price of $73.00 on the trade. The put spread provides maximum protection if shares decline 6% from the current price to $67.00 by expiration in December. – iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index –
WYN - The hospitality company appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon due to greater than normal call activity. Bullish option traders made moves on the stock despite the slight 0.25% dip in shares to $16.01. Traders looked to the November 20 strike where approximately 1,000 calls look to have been bought for an average premium of 45 cents each. The higher November 22.5 strike had about 8,000 calls coveted by investors who paid an average of 19 cents per contract. Call-buyers at the higher strike may garner profits if shares surge 42% from the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $22.69 by expiration in November. Wyndham has traded beneath the breakeven price described since May 20, 2008. We note that option traders exchanged 21,290 contracts on WYN today, which represents 36% of the existing open interest on the stock of 59,774 lots. – Wyndham Worldwide Corp. –
BBBY - The home-furnishings retailer received an upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’ at FTN Equity today ahead of its second-quarter…
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All Fine on Friday - Drop, What Drop?
by Phil - September 4th, 2009 8:23 am
We are starting to love our stick!
From our first Alert of the day, at 9:47 we went bullish into the drop, selling the naked DIA $94 puts and covering our longer put plays fully. After picking TZA hedged ($11.15/14.32) and a short on COST (who had jumped 10%) it was all mooing with longs on MCO, ERTS, BSX and VZ but then a bearish play on GLD at $97.50 as, again, we didn’t think gold will hold $1,000. The market started a sell-off at 1:25 but took a bounce but, as you can see from David Fry’s chart, the S&P held 995 at 2:45 and at 3:07 I said to Members:
Volume right at 100M at 3pm. 140M is "stickable." Mr Stick stopped coming after he got hosed on Monday with someone(s) selling like crazy into the attempted closing pump but "they" jacked it up pre-market on Tuesday and got their money back Tues am at which point they les the market slide to (hopefully) get rid of the jokers who had the nerve to sell into the stick. After an almost 72 hour rest period, I think Mr. Stick is tanned and rested and ready to put a positive spin on this week into the holiday weekend. That’s my market story at the moment. I’ll be right if we get a move either into this close or possibly a pre-market pump into a Free Money Day tomorrow that jams us back to 9,500 on very low pre-holiday volume. Those DIA $94 puts are still $2.15 and I still like them as a way to play for a move up (short sale). The $95 calls came down to .69 as the bulls have lost faith and that makes them a fun play to get back into as well.
So far, my market story is looking pretty good and it’s a quick 150–point ride back to 9,500, which will be a tall order if Non-Farm Payrolls disappoint but looking at then Hang Seng this morning, which got the Grand Mother of all stick saves into their close (500 points in 45 minutes), I’d have to say pretty much anything is possible. This morning’s "rally" in the Hang Seng came off an announcement by authorities that China will raise the ceiling on foreign investments AND shorten the "lock-up" period on certain types of investments considerably. This came on the heels of another announcement that a plan to stop…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(