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Bye Bye Buy List!

Oh, I have tried!

I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I'm OUT!  Oh, I'll be back, we'll set up a new, aggressive $100K Virtual Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it's going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines. 

We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I'm not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it's a very good time to take a break.  We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:

  • Step 1) Take Money
  • Step 2) Run

There – isn't that simple?  Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we'll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don't and the market looks stronger through April earnings.  Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays.  Not much else to talk about – let's just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):

AET (12/21 – $34.04, 1/9 – $32.70, 1/31 – $29.97, 3/18 – $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that's too wild for us to stick with.  Our last batch is right on target:

  • Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 – up 83%
  • Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
  • 2012 $25/35 bull call spread at $5, now $5.40 – Keeper if we sell July $34 calls to cover at $2.35
  • 2011 $22.50s at $9.10 – now $11.60 – up 27%
  • Apr $27 puts sold for $1.75, now .01 – up 99%

AGNC (11/24 – $26.20, 12/21 – $27.91, 1/9 – $26.50, 1/31 – $26.69, 3/17 – $28.01) is (gasp!) a REIT.  But it’s a strange one that (according to them) "Invests in agency pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a U.S. Government agency or a U.S. Government sponsored entity.  The company funds its investments primarily through short-term borrowings structured as repurchase agreements."  They pay a QUARTERLY $1.40 DIVIDEND (21%)!  Last time we waited for the pullback and got them for under $25 and we're in this for the dividend and they remain a great balance to short IYR or SRS positions.      

ATVI (11/24 – $11.40, 12/21 – $10.91, 1/9 – $10.90, 1/31 – $10.16, 3/17 – $11.96) I love these guys but I'll love them more on a pullback or over $13.

  • Buy/write with 2011 $10 puts and calls for $2.70 were net $7.46/8.73, now net $8.66 – up 16% with another 15% over 9 more months – we can do better! 

AYE (12/22 – $24.04, 1/9 $22.99, 1/31 – 20.95, 3/17 – $23.36):

  • Buy/write with July $22.50 puts (calls were bought back at  .80) netted $20.29/21.40 now net $23.06 – up 14%

CEPH (12/21 – $59.75, 1/9 – $63.01, 1/31 – $63.84, 3/17 – $71.02)

  • 2012 $50/70 bull call spread was $9.50,  and is now $12.70 – up 33%. 
  • 2012 $50 puts at $6, now $2.30 – up 62% (pair trade)  The puts can be kept open because we'd be thrilled to own CEPH at net $44 but the low VIX says take the money and run!    

CPLP (11/24 – $7.54, 12/21 – $8.80, 1/9 – $9.82, 1/31 – $8.93, 3/17 – $8.76) is an all double-hull tanker company that pays a nice dividend (21%).  They are up 17% from our November entry and last time I said we’ll have to hope for a pulback from $10 and we got it but if you didn’t get in on the dip down to $8.18 last month, they are less sexy here. 

June $10 puts sold for $2.60, now $2 – up 23% Worth keeping since we'd love an entry at net $7.40.

CUZ (11/24 – 7.06, 12/21 – $7.77, 1/9 – $8.15, 1/31 – $7.66, 3/17 – $8.09)  They are a REIT that took some write downs and is raised some capital, now steady(er).

  • Buy/write with July $7.50 puts and calls netted $5.76/6.63, now net $6.49 – up 13%.

DF (12/21 – $17.68, 1/9 – $18.23, 1/31 – $17.63, 3/17 – $15.74) 

  • Buy/write with 2011 $17.50 puts and calls netted $13.43/15.42, now  $11.74 – down 12.5%  If we roll the $17.50 caller down to the Jan $12.50 caller we pick up $2.70 and that changes the basis to $10.73/14.12 which is not terrible enough to take a 12% loss since we do still like them down here.   
  • 2011 $12.50s/$17.50 bull call spread at $2.50, now $2.90 – up 16%

2011 $17.50 puts sold for $2, now $2.90 – down 45% (pair trade)  I think kill the bull call spread and that brings net to $2.50 here which means net $15 if put back to us in Jan and that's not a bad entry to ride out with the naked puts.  Stop if we fail $14.

ENP (11/24 – $18.02, 12/21 – $19.70, 1/9 – $20.76, 1/31- $20.22, 3/17 – 20)

  • Sept $17.50/20 bull call spread for $1.40, now $1.80 – up 28%
  • Sept $17.50 puts sold for $1.30, now .90 - up 30% (pair trade)  The puts seem to be in no danger and be left as we'd love owning them for net $16.20.

ERTS (12/21 – $16.96, 1/9 – $18.40, 1/31 – $16.28, 3/17 – $18.50) 

  • 2011 $12.50/17.50 bull call spread at $3.20, now $3.55 – up 11%
  • March $18 puts sold for $2.35, now .05 – up 98% (pair trade)
  • Buy/write selling June $16 calls and June $15 puts for net $13.53/14.27, now $14.53 – up 7.4% Fine to stick with

EXC (12/22 – $49.10, Jan 9 – $48.30, 1/31 – $45.62, now $44.67)

  • July $45 puts sold for $3.10, now 2.40 – up 25%
  • 2011 $40/50 bull call spread at net $4.90, now $4.70 – down 4% 
  • 2011 $40 puts sold for $2.70, now $2.15 - up  20% (pair trade)  

FLY (11/24 – $9.10, 12/21 – $9.17, 1/9 – $10.58, 1/31 – $9.61, 3/17 – $10.02) Sticking with the instructions from last time:  They’re back!  I was upset last time that they got away so quickly as they have a great business leasing aircraft and their competitors have a lot of troubles, which should help them long-term.  No options on these guys and we’d like to get them for $8.50 but I doubt it so entries (20% scales) of 1x at $9.50, 1x at $9 and 2x at $9.50 averages $8.87, which is close enough for a long-term play and, of course, $10.50 is around where we look for the exits again.      

FTR (11/24 – $7.83, 12/21 $7.56, 1/9 – $7.68, 1/31 – $7.61, 3/17 – $7.51) We are in this one for the dividend (13.4%) and they are a fine long-term hold. 

  • Buy/write with Aug $7.50 puts and calls netted $6.36/6.93, now $6.50 – up 2% (but they just gave us .25 on 3/5!) 

GENZ (12/21 – $47.95, 1/9 – $53.81, 1/31 – $54.26, 3/18 – $57.41)  Went to high and was a no-trade.

GLW (11/24 – $16.53, 12/21 – $18.98, 1/9 – $19.89, 1/31 $18.08, 3/17 – $19.24)  

  • 2011 $17.50 at $2.75, now $3.15 – up  14%
  • March $18 puts sold for $1, now .02 – up 98%  

GME (12/21 – $22.62, 1/9 – $20.29, 1/31 – $19.77, 3/17 – $21.16) 

  • 2011 $17.50/25 bull call spread for $3, now $3.70 – up 23% Keepable
  • 2011 $15 puts sold for $1.20, now .80 – up 33% (pair trade) 

 

GOOG (11/24 – $583, 12/21 – $598, 1/9 – $602, 1/31 – $529)  

We played the 4 June $570 calls for $63.50 ($25,400), selling 5 June $600 calls for $46.70 ($23,350) – net $2,050, which was meant to be profitable from about $575 to $700.  The June $570s are now $26 ($10,400) and the June $600s are $14 ($7,000) for net $3,400 – up 65%.  That’s the power of doing these conservative ratio spreads – they are very tricky to figure out the best math but, as you can see from the ride we've had on this one, they give you TONS of room for error!     

  • 2012 $700/Jan $660 spread at $13.50, now $19 – up 40%

GPW (11/24 – $25, 12/21 – $25.16. 1/9 – 25.03, 1/31 – $25.02, 3/18 – 25.35) is a nice little (and I emphasize little) power company that pays a 5.75% dividend on $25 shares (no options).  The kicker for them is they MAY qualify for state aid in building their new plants as they continue to expand and that could give them a boost as would an acquirer paying just a fraction over the $250M market cap.

Notice that many of our virtual portfolio trades are REITs and energy companies.  While I feel that REITs are in big trouble and commodities are overpriced, they make good offsets to our more speculative downside plays on SRS, OIH or ERY.  This is a very important part of virtual portfolio balancing, selecting a mix of stocks to offset your bearish ETF betting or vs. vs. so you are not likely to be ALL wrong when the sector moves one way or the other.  In general, since I am pretty bearish on the economy, I like stocks that benefit from me being wrong on my macro view.  These are, of course, also stocks I don’t mind being "stuck with" long-term, just in case my macro view turns out to be right. 

INTC (11/24 – $19.39, 12/21 $20.09, 1/9 – $20.40, 1/31 – $19.40, 3/18 – $22.20) 

  • Buy/write with Apr $19 puts and calls netting $17.10/18.05, now $18.87 – up 10%   As I said last month: It’s a nice 11%, 3-month profit if called away and a 7% dicount if put to you.  That may not sound sexy but this is Intel – not some rinky-dink company that you’d be ashamed to own in 2020!
  • 2012 $17.50/25 bull call spread for $2.75, now $3.80 – up 38% 

KEY (12/21 – $5.72, 1/9 – $6.50, 1/31 – $7.18, 3/17 – $7.56)

  • 2011 $7.50 calls at .85, now $1.30 – up 53%
  • 2011 $7.50 puts sold for $1.60, now $1.25 – up 22% (pair trade) 

LMT (12/21 – $76.27, 2/2 – $74.89, 3/18 – $85.94) 

  • Buy/write with Jan $75 calls and $65 puts for net $64.46/64.73, now $71.24 – up 10% $7.22 out of $10.54 possible 10 months ahead of schedule is not worth keeping.
  • 2012 $60/80 bull call spread for $10.40, now $14.20 – up 36%
  • 2012 $60 puts sold for $5.60, now $3.10 – up  45% 

MBI (12/21 – $3.64, 1/9 – $5.32, 2/2 – $5.19, 3/18 – $6.04)

  • Buy/write with Aug $5 calls and Aug $4 puts netting $3.39/3.70, now $3.64 – up 7% Seems safe enough to ride out
  • 2012 $2.50/7.50 bull call spread at $1.75, now $2.10 – up 20%
  • $5 puts sold for $1.95, now $1.50 – up 23% (pair trade)

MON (12/21 – $80.97, 1/9 – $86.65, 2/2 – $77.31, 3/18 – $72.03)  They were wisely a no play last time when I said: "I’m close to dropping them but I would buy them back in the mid $60s so they’ll stay on here.  Very wise last time to say out of them but, long-term, this is a nice company to own."

NDAQ (12/21 – $20.03, 1/9 – $20.23, 2/2 – $18.42, 3/17 – $20.73)

  • The Jan $15s at $4.60, now $7.40 – up 60%
  • June $18 puts sold for $1.35, now .30 – up  77% (pair trade) 

NLY (1/9 – $17.53, 2/2 – $17.45, 3/17 – $18.50) 

  • Buy/write with the Jan $17.50 puts and calls for net $13.45/15.48, now $14.80 – up 10%  This one is a keeper as there's a lot left to gain.

NRF (11/24 – $3.42, 12/21 – $3.27, 1/9 – $4.19, 2/2 – $4.55)

  • June $2.50 calls for $1.70, now $2 – up 17%
  • June $5 puts sold for $1.25, now $.85 – up 32%
  • June $5 calls sold for $.75, now .20 – up 73% (legged in buy/write)

NSM (12/21 – $15.26, 1/9 – $15.26, 2/2 – $13.68, 3/18 – $14.88)

  • 2011 $12.50 calls at $2.50, now $3.85 – up 54%
  • May $14 puts sold for $1.30, now .40 – up 69%

ORCL (11/24 – $22.14, 12/21 – $24.43, 1/9 – $24.68, 2/5 – $23.11, 3/18 – $25.38)

  • Jan $20s at $4.40, now $6 – up 36%
  • March $23 calls sold for $1.05, now $2.40 – down 128%
  • March $22 puts sold for .55, now .01 – up 98% (legged spread)  The Calls can be rolled to June $24 puts and calls at $2.80 (+.40) and there's no reason to abandon this spread as it should continue to do well.   Boring, but well!

PCS (12/21 -  $7.55, 1/9 – $7.10, 2/5 – $5.81, 3/18 – $6.94) 

  • Buy/write with Jan $5 puts and calls netted $3.41/4.21, now $4.14, up 21% No sense in killing this one early with .86 coming (another 20%).

PDS (11/24 – $6.80, 12/21 – $7.18, 1/9 – $8.72, 2/5 – $7.79, 3/18 – $7.80)

Buy/write with Sept $7.50 puts and calls netted $5.29/6.40, now $5.80 – up 10% Worth keeping with 32% more upside.

PGH (11/24 – $9.70, 12/21 – $9.64, 1/9 – $10.38, 2/5 – $10.42, 3/18 – $11.25)  They are a Canadian trust that pays a MONTHLY .07 dividend.

Buy/write with July $10 puts and calls netted $8.77/9.39, now $9.85 – up 12% Worth keeping with the monthly dividends.

PRM (11/24 – $3.20, 12/21 – $3.93, 1/9 – $3.60, 2/5 – $3.15, 3/18 – $3.92) No options, just a stock.

S (12/21 – $3.77, 1/9 – $3.95, 2/5 – $3.41, 3/18 – $3.80) 

  • Aug $3/4  bull call spread for .40, now .55 - up 37%
  • Aug $3 puts sold for .40, now .20 – up 50% (pair trade) Fine to leave this one.

SB (11/24 – $8.93, 12/21 – $8.27, 1/9 – $8.86, 2/5 – $7.90, 3/18 – $7.36) Another no play last time but we'll keep our eye on them.

TNK (11/24 – $8.18, 12/21 – $8.87, 1/9 – $9.37, 2/5 – $9.15, 3/18 – $11.50)

  • Aug $7.50/10 bull call spread at $1.20, now $2.20 – up 83%
  • Aug $7.50 puts sold for .50, now .25 – up 50%

Keep in mind that with the artificial buy/writes – we don’t care if we get assigned.  TNK above is put to us at net $8.20 and we WANT to own TNK long-term for $8.20.  If it keeps going up and we don’t get it, then we will sadly take our 157% profit and move on to something else so don’t let the fact that you "miss out" on the dividend bother you on these plays.  If I want to buy 1,000 shares of TNK at $9,370 and I hope to make a $400 in dividends through August.  There is no good protection with the Aug $10s at .40 and the Aug $7.50s at $1.60 (no premium) so you risk $9,370 to make $400.  My proposal is you just buy 10 of the above spread for net $700 and you make a profit of $950 if TNK just holds $9.15!  Do NOT be afraid of these plays – they are fantastic ways to leverage your virtual portfolio WITHOUT taking on additional risks (on a per-position basis, if you take 5 times more positions, rather than keep the cash handy, then don’t fool yourself – you are taking on more risk!).

WFR (12/21 – $13.05, 1/9 – $15.02, 2/5 – $11.60, 3/18 – $14.48)  

  • Buy/write with July $12 calls and July $11 puts netted $8.90/9.45, now $11.13 - up 25%
  • 2012 $10 puts sold for $2.15, now $1.30 – up 40%
  • 2012 $10/17.50 bull call spread at $2.60, now $3.45 – up 32%

WHX (11/24 – $16.25, 12/21 – $16.26, 1/9 – $16.93, 2/5 – $16.89, 3/18 – $18.80) is an interesting little REIT.  They are a subsidiary of WLL that seems to be nothing more than a vehicle to funnel profits off land leases out of the parent company to be distributed out as dividends through WHX.  That makes the income fairly uncertain as it seems tied to oil revenues but they have no debt at all and the dividends work out to over 15%.  Sadly – no options but up 15% on the stock since we entered as a nice bonus to the dividend! 

Wow, it's really hard to let go of some of these.  So many good stocks and such good entires.  Still, we don't grow if we don't learn to let go and move on and 4 months is a long time in the stock world.  We have a huge benefit from a declining VIX, which we anticipated correctly in setting up these plays but it's time to recognize that we're at an inflection point and what worked really well on the way up, may not work as well on the way down or, even, on the way up higher.  

There were 66 different positions in this virtual portfolio on 37 stocks and, in that whole batch, there are just two (2) that are down with average gains in the high 20s.  I would urge members, especially impatient members, to go back through the Virtual Portfolio section and read back on the list and read the original reasoning for taking these trades and think about the strategies that work and give you 64 winners out of 66 picks.  We are not taking chances, we are not gambling – we go for solid stocks AFTER they pull back and (as we are doing right now) we make non-greedy exits and get back to cash so, when the next opportunity comes along – we can do it again!

 


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  1. March 18th, 2010 at 7:39 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

     Phil,
    So, I  Didnt see this anywhere in previous comments or the new member section or in the educational section posts so here you go:
    1.  When you do this every week, do the colors mean anything?  I know that in this post green are the ones you want to hold (says so right at the top) but some of the other ones you bold, and some you do not.  Does the bold indicate anything specific or just your style of writing?  
    2. Also, how do you suggest newer members "jump in."  I know you suggest paper trading for one month as well as reading all the posts (I think I have 2 weeks to go) but after that exile (j/k) how do most pick and choose which of your ideas to take?  Delta weighting?  Other greeks?  Flip o the coin?  Clarification on this would be helpful.
    3.  Finally, I am assuming the dates after each symbol in the parentheses are the purchase dates that you did?  Fair enough, BUT, looking at LMT as an example, certainly the 2012 60/80 call spread is over 4 bucks more than when you posted originally – so i am assuming that LMT would NOT be a candidate at this time.  So, what are – I know, i know, a continuation of question 2 above but i thought an example would be wise.
    Thanks


  2. March 18th, 2010 at 10:59 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

     Phil when you say the ones in green are "worth keeping" do you mean you’d sell non-green positions? Or just not initiate new ones? In that case you would recommend bailing on GLW and WFR? Thanks!


  3. March 18th, 2010 at 11:26 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Hanna
    I think Phil went night nighty


  4. March 18th, 2010 at 11:34 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

    Colors/Salvum – The bold was below the "IN PROGRESS" line.  None of these are really for new trades now, we’re pretty much off from having a Buy List until next earnings season is under way. 

    In general, it’s just like chat though, bold items are things I think make a good trade for anyone right now.  Things that are not bold are follow-ups, in other words, trades we are rolling or shifting or whatever but not nec. great new entries.  In chat, of course, non-bold means I’m probably answering a question for a specific person as opposed to making a pick that I consider a generally good idea. 

    As to jumping in – Just be patient.  Study these trades and trace them back.  On the Buy Lists and the Portfolios I tend to get into detail explaining why I like a company and why I’m making a trade and what my goals are for making the trade – stuff we don’t have time for in chat.

    Also, note that we hardly EVER discuss these trades but these nice, well-hedged, CONSERVATIVE plays should be the bulk of your portflio.  If you can keep 75% of your portfolio in trades that make 20% twice a year – then you make 30% and as long as you don’t manage to lose 30% with the other 25% of your money – you will have a nice year AND you can have fun playing a smaller, aggressive portfolio.  Balance, diversification and cash management are all very important things to have a handle on before you begin messing around.

    You need to pick the trades you believe in.  We did great on GME but only the people who stuck out the dips.  Same with DF and GOOG and several others.  It’s very hard to stay in a trade if the only reason you’re in it is because "Phil picked it."   You need to find sectors you like (diversified ones) and then look for stocks that fit your premise in that sector and you need to SCALE into the positions PATIENTLY and build a portfolio over time. 

    Also, the stocks I like at different times depend on my long, medium and short-range outlook for the market.  Back when we started this list I was worried we’d have a sell-off in Jan (we were picking around XMas) so I went for stocks that had solid foundations and a lot that paid dividends and shippers and energy stocks that were beaten down because I thought we’d get a commodity rally in the first half of the year. 

    Once we have an established portfolio that also affects how I play my short game.  I short a lot of energy stocks because we have a lot of long-term energy plays so it doesn’t make sense for me to double my danger and take short-term long posiitons on energy does it?  So when I think things are getting toppy, I go short with a small part of the 25% allocation in the short-term portfolio knowing that, if I lose that, then I must be doing well on my 75% portfolio.  It’s all about balance and hedging…

    The dates in the parentheses were updates, each month we ran a new Buy List, some picks were bold and some weren’t – it makes a lot more sense if you take the time to go back to the beginning and read it than for me to reconstruct 4 months of work for you here. 

    Green/Hanna – Pretty much the green trades are "still good," as in there’s no reason to close them.  I’m not advocating ANY new positions at all.  I am advocating cash and we will be doing some backspreads and other fun plays while we wait for the market to give us a clear signal.

    For perspective – Last year we had a Buy List in Feb that ran through May.  We did a new one on the early July pullback and killed that in September and we started this last one in December and now it too is dead so it may be a while before I decide there are 20 or more stocks I want to set up for 3+ months of trading.  It was very annoying for us to sit in cash through October and November and most of December and the market went up and up but I just didn’t see a clear path to victory for a Buy List (we did lots of other fun stuff, though). 

    The trick is to be ready – to be in the right place (and the right frame of mind, with cash – ie, prepared!) every day and, eventually, it will be the right time.  People who are in the right place at the right time often aren’t lucky at all – just persistent but the people who aren’t prepared and aren’t patient and aren’t persistent look at those people and call them lucky.  Warren Buffett isn’t lucky and you don’t need to be either…


  5. March 18th, 2010 at 11:42 pm | Permalink Ignore this user

     thanks Phil
    your answers are concise as always – i have no idea how you watch the market and type as much as you do and do your research – you are a mad scientist (a compliment).
    I totally get what you are saying about being patient.  I have been on the market for going on two decades (its my profession) and have waited more than I have acted.
    thanks again!


  6. March 19th, 2010 at 8:22 am | Permalink Ignore this user

     Morning Phil;
     
    I have been with you for quite a while and this is the phase i always mess up on :) so this time i’ll try to do right. 
    one of the positions i hold is a 2011 C $2.5 call that has cost me 0.85. do i sell that too ? or sell a $3 call or sell $5 long call ? i just want to know if this is included in thhe get money and run catagory. i know at some point you sugested turning it into a 5-7.5 2012 spread so i can take out cash.
    let me know and thanks
     
    thanks


  7. March 19th, 2010 at 9:39 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Phil
    I sld the April dia 107 and bot the dia 105. the 105 has .53  premium and the 107 has 1.15 premium. Time to adjust?
    thanks,phlit


  8. March 23rd, 2010 at 9:36 am | Permalink Ignore this user

    Top stocks/Ac – Well, as a value investor my top stocks change depending on whether they are up or down at the moment.  BA was a tough call last week but, after much consideration, I decided I still like them near $70 as I think high oil is a long-term plus for them and low oil is a long-term plus for the airlines so they almost can’t lose.  To me a general top 20 is a bunch of companies I would be proud to leaving for my kids when I die so:  AAPL, IBM, GE, PG, KO, WMT, BA, MCD, DIS, VZ, KFT, CL, ABX, JNJ, MDT, INTC, MSFT (hopefully I will outlive Ballmer!), WHR, ZMH, UN, NKE, XLF (no individual bank makes me feel safe but banking will survive) and DBA.  Those are all stocks that, when they falter, like a cheap pair of my favorite jeans I’m happy to buy some more while they’re on sale. 

    It used to be that on sale meant 10% off but, as I’m very skeptical about the market in general and as the MSM has gotten investors to enter some fantasy world where 2008 never happened, I have a hard time picking any of these guys back near highs until we solidify a higher base.  Of course, if you have 100 posiions, cutting back 75% and keeping any 10 of these (diversified) as long-term core positions and doggedly selling calls to wear down the basis over time is a prudent strategy. 

    Remember I’m talking lifetime holds here and this is not an exhaustive list – just off the top of my head at the moment and notice it doesn’t include oil companies (will we be using it in 30 years?) or other commodites (crazy fluctuations) or even computer makers like HPQ, who lose out to AAPL and IBM because I have to decide which management team I’d trust to show up with my retirement money fully grown with inflation plus a nice return and they lose.  I love ISRG now and for the next 10 years but, after that, they could be made obsolete by nanotech…  So that kind of thinking…