Posts Tagged ‘FSLR’

Thankful Thursday – Janet Does it Again!

INDU WEEKLYThank you Madam Chairwoman!  

Not that Yellen said anything of substance but that won't stop her from saying it again this morning (9:30) so let the rally continue – for another day, at least.  

Yellen made an congressional appearance yesterday, where she argued the economy “needed more help”. She didn’t articulate how the Fed might help given the ongoing taper, although ZIRP would continue for a considerable time which bulls took to mean “indefinitely”.

Oddly she also suggested small cap stocks were near bubble conditions but then said she couldn’t see any bubbles.  All in all, it was the kind of obfuscating testimony that would have made Alan Greenspan proud.

RUT WEEKLYAs Dave Fry notes on his Dow chart, that index is just window dressing for the tourists, with 7 stocks (AXP, CVX, JNJ, MCD, MMM, UTX and V) accounting for ALL of the Dow's gains yesterday in this stupidly price-weighted index.   

The Russell is clearly in trouble and tested that bottom bar at 1,080 again (1,088 was the low) early in the morning and we caught the turn on the nose in our Live Member Chat room, when my 10:25 comment to our Members was:  

Wow, what a ride!  Gotta take some profits off the table on the Futures shorts – people don't like Janet's testimony but she can still pull it out with the Q&A.   /NQ at 3,500 – that shouldn't go down easy.  Actually it's a good bullish bounce play, as is 1,090 on /TF (with very tight stops).  /YM 16,300 is also a good line – go long on the laggard.  

SPY 5 MINUTE

As you can see from the intra-day SPY chart – the timing of that call could not have been better!  The Dow finished the day back at 16,500 and, at $5 per point per Futures contract, that made a $1,000 per contract on that call.  We took $1,000 and ran when the Russell hit 1,100 but then got a chance to reload for a ride to 1,110 later that day (+$2,000 per contract).  


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Weakening Wednesday – Can Yellen Save the Day?

SPY 5 MINUTEI told you so!  

All of last week, I kept saying the market was only hitting highs because it was being manipulated that way and, by Friday we'd had enough and took our ill-gotten gains off the table once again.  This week, it's obvious we're in trouble – but it's a lot harder to sell your stocks when they're already in trouble, isn't it?

It's a very hard discipline to take winners off the table but you should scale out of posiitons on the way up the same way you should scale into them on the way down (and the Strategy Section at Philstockworld has a great article about scaling – also lots of additional commentary in chat below the article).  

There's nothing wrong with being in cash.  Yesterday, from 1pm until 2:30, we had on of our Live Futures Trading Workshops (replay available here) and our 4 trades made $360 by the close (4pm) for a very nice $100+ per hour salary for just trading a few contracts.  Our trade idea from yesterday's morning post (which you can get delivered to you pre-market, every day by SUBSCRIBING HERE) was to short the Nikkei (/NKD) at 14,350 and this morning we hit 14,050 – good for a $1,500 PER CONTRACT profit!  

SPX WEEKLYThat's one of the things you can do with cash.  We also have fun making earnings plays, like the FSLR trade we added to our Short-Term Portfolio yesterday.  That trade idea was:

I think it's worth a try at selling 5 July $75 calls for $3 ($1,500) and buying, to cover, 4 Jan $77.50/85 bull call spreads at $2 ($800) for a net credit of $700 – let's do a set of those in the STP

If FSLR is under $75 (it's about $69 after earnings), we pocket $700 PLUS whatever value remains on the January bull call spread (probably about half).  That's against zero cash outlay ($700 credit, in fact) and possibly we'll just take quick money off the table…
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Options Light Up At First Solar As Shares Zip Higher

FSLR – First Solar, Inc. – Shares in the largest builder of solar power plants in the U.S. are up sharply on Friday, rallying for a third-consecutive session to the highest level since August. The stock is currently at session highs, up 8.4% at $49.82 as of 11:45 a.m. ET.

Traders positioning for shares in First Solar to extend gains ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report appear to be buying the Nov 22 ‘13 $50 strike calls today, with 3,100 contracts traded thus far in the session against open interest of 60 contracts. Time and sales data indicates most of the volume was purchased at a premium of $3.30 each, with the single-largest print being a block of 2,000 calls that traded just after 10:00 a.m. this morning. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month in the event that FSLR shares rally another 7.0% over today’s high of $49.82 to exceed the average breakeven price of $53.30. Shares in First Solar last traded above $53.30 back on June 11th.  

GOOG – Google, Inc. – Better than expected top and bottom line third-quarter results reported by Google after the close on Thursday launched the price of GOOG shares up above the $1,000 level for the first time on Friday, with shares trading up 13.3% to $1,007.09 by a.m. 10:10 ET.

The sharp move in the price of the underlying sparked heavy action in Google options straight out of the gate this morning, driving overall volume to more than twice the stock’s average daily options volume of around 61,000 contracts during the first hour of the session. Trading in…
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Whipsaw Wednesday – Apple Today Keeps the Fed at Bay

QQQ WEEKLY Yay AAPL!

A meteoric 10% rise pre-market is being celebrated by the Global markets even though it's really only part of the way back to the $644 high that was, very recently, supposed to be a stepping stone on the way to $1,000.  Are we really going to get all excited just because AAPL's earnings didn't suck?  That seems kind of silly as I'm pretty sure they were never going to get to $1,000 by just earning $10 a share per quarter, were they?  

I have nothing bad to say about AAPL.  We were bearish on them at $640 but $550 was our buy target and we didn't take direct action on AAPL yesterday as we were worried they might disappoint so our 1:31 bullish trade idea for Members was the QQQ June $60/63 bull call spread at $2.35 and those should be well on their way to $3 this morning as the Qs are up 2% to $66 pre-market already.  

I mentioned in yesterday's post that we had already played TQQQ (ultra-long Nasdaq) the day before and that one was the more aggressive May $103/110 bull call spread at $4, selling ISRG Jan $350 puts for $4.40 for a net .40 credit on the $10 spread.  Any offset would do, of course but we REALLY wouldn't mind owning ISRG for $350 if it goes on sale (now $560) but, if not, we'll take the free money.  As a 3x ultra, TQQQ will be up 6% this morning, already at our $110 goal and, if they can hold it, we're looking at a very nice 150% gain on just the bull spread with a 2,600% gain on the full spread – either way, not a bad way to play!  

We had also taken the QQQ MAY $63/66 bull call spread at $1.90 on Monday and that deal was so good we didn't feel we needed an offset.  That's the difference between catching the bottom, like we did on Monday and chasing a run, as we did with the Qs on Tuesday – the rewards of being contrarian investors!

One trade that may not be going well for us was the AAPL weekly $575 calls, which we bought for $20.75 against the sale of the May $590s for $22 for a net $1.25 credit.  We didn't think AAPL would pop $600 so fast, so we're a…
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Fixed Markets Friday – Greece All Better – Next!

The Greek debt crisis is over!

Again.  Well, for now.  Despite the "voluntary" participation of 85% of the debt-holders, collective action clauses (CAC) will be triggered to force other bondholders and a similar action in Argentina led to 10 years of lawsuits – so we have that to look forward to.  "The rule of law has been treated with contempt," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. "This will lead to litigation for the next ten years. It has become a massive impediment for long-term investors, and people will now be very wary about Spain and Portugal." 

“Even if we band aid this Greek situation right now, they’re going to default down the road or write down 100 percent of the debt,” said Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors. 

Now the European Commission has sent a team of experts to Spain to check its budget deficit data, according to Spanish website Expansion, and they will be greeted by a National Strike, scheduled for March 29th, to protest the austerity measures the EU is trying to enforce.  Greek bonds are already passing the 20% mark again so this "fix" has lasted all of a few hours and already we're seeing rates creep up in Italy, Spain and Portugal (Ireland can't even borrow money – at any price) and part of the reason is they just blatantly screwed over the last batch of bondholders and Credit Default Swaps have now been revealed as completely useless tools to protect bond investments – and part of the reason is Uncle Sam needs to borrow a record $227Bn to pay the bills for February alone:

While the above chart may look like a catastrophe to a casual observer, especially considering February is the shortest month of the year – others may be cheered by the thought that the US will never actually have to pay this money back, as Greece has now shown us all that the path to default is celebrated by global markets climbing to record highs.  So, if Greece's $450Bn default can get us to Dow 13,000 – imagine what the US's $16Tn default will do – I can't wait!  

We are waiting for the jobs report this morning but according to the Gallup poll, there aren't any.  Gallup sees 9.1% unemployment in February, up
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Bull-Run Continues On United Technologies Corp. Call Options

 

Today’s tickers: UTX, FSLR & CCL

UTX - United Technologies Corp. – A burst of call activity on United Technologies may mean traders are expecting shares in the operator of Otis, Pratt & Whitney, Sikorsky and others to rise substantially ahead of March expiration. The stock is roughly flat on the session, down 0.10% at $83.89 as of 1:10 p.m. on the East Coast. Roughly one hour into the trading session, traffic in out-of-the-money call options with three weeks remaining to expiration spiked – this following Friday’s bullish action in the $85 weekly options. One or more traders appear to have purchased some 1,700 calls at the Mar. $85 strike at a premium of $0.76 each and at least 2,500 calls at the Mar. $87.5 strike for an average premium of $0.22 apiece. Call volume is heaviest up at the Mar. $90 strike, where more than 9,100 contracts changed hands against open interest of just 201 contracts. A block of 6,415 of the $90 strike calls, the largest single trade in UTX options today, was purchased by one investor for $0.09 each. The sizable block of call options appears to be a low-cost, low probability bet that shares in UTX may be rally sharply ahead of March expiration. Profits may be available on the position in the event that shares in UTX jump 7.4% to top the effective breakeven price of $90.09 by expiration next month. Shares in UTX last traded above $90.09 back in July 2011. The stock has rallied nearly 13.0% since the start of the New Year.

FSLR - First Solar, Inc. – Big prints in First Solar put options appear to be the work of an investor taking profits on one sizable put spread and simultaneously initiating a fresh bearish stance on the stock.…
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Bearish Play In Avon Products Options Suggests Rally Short Lived

Today’s tickers: AVP, FSLR & GLD

AVP - Avon Products, Inc. – Investors cheered news that the beauty products seller will seek a replacement for its current CEO next year, sending shares in Avon Products up as much as 11.1% to $17.93 at the start of the trading session. The purchase of 10,000 calls at the July 2012 $20 strike on a 33 delta may at first glance appear to be the work of a bullish investor gearing up for shares in the cosmetics seller to extend gains. However, the long calls were tied to short stock, indicating the trader responsible is bearish on Avon and hoping to profit from a pullback in the price of the underlying. The investor sold 330,000 shares of AVP stock at $17.40 this morning and bought the calls, thereby synthetically buying long puts to benefit from share price erosion.

FSLR - First Solar, Inc. – Options activity suggests the end of this week may be even uglier for First Solar shareholders who saw the price of the stock tank today after the company again cut its earnings and revenue forecasts for 2011. Shares in the largest U.S. solar company are currently trading at their lowest since 2007, down 20.0% on the day at $33.98 as of 12:15 PM in New York. The stock has dropped more than 80.0% off the February 18, 2011, two-year high of $175.45. December expiry call and put trading on First Solar indicates investors are expecting the sell-off to continue through the end of the trading week and expiration. Bears purchased in- and out-of-the-money puts to prepare for further share price erosion in the next few days. Strategists positioning for the stock to sink to fresh lows picked up 1,600 puts at the Dec. $33 strike this morning for an average premium of $0.78 each.…
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Put Plays Suggest Dim View Of First Solar Through Year End

Today’s tickers: FSLR, DBC, CDE & SNDK

FSLR - First Solar, Inc. – Put options are active on the world’s largest maker of thin-film solar modules this morning, with shares in the Tempe, Arizona-based company falling as much as 8.35% to touch an intraday low of $66.23. Shares fell after analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their 2011 EPS estimates for First Solar, cut their target share price to $55.00 from $88.00, and reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock. A debit put spread initiated in the December contract may yield maximum potential profits to one bearish trader if shares in FSLR drop to $55.00 at expiration. It looks like the trader purchased 2,000 in-the-money puts at the Dec. $70 strike for an average premium of $11.50 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower Dec. $55 strike at an average premium of $4.83 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $6.67 per contract. The investor profits at expiration in December if shares in First Solar fall 4.4% off today’s low of $66.23 to breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $63.33. Maximum potential profits of $8.33 per contract are available to the trader should shares plunge 16.95% to trade below $55.00 at December expiration. Options implied volatility on the stock is up 10.05% at 85.13% as of 12:30 pm EDT.

DBC - PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund – Shares in the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, an ETF that tracks the performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Index Excess Return, are down slightly by 0.20% to stand at $27.05 this morning. The price of the underlying has fallen 10.5% since the start of September, but options activity on the fund today suggests at least one strategist may benefit from…
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Bull Call Spreads Pop Up on Peet’s Coffee & Tea

Today’s tickers: TIF, EWJ, FSLR, HD, PEET, EWJ, ENDP & CVC

TIF - Tiffany & Co. – The retailer of fine jewelry and other high-end luxury goods has not lost its sparkle according to some contrarian traders establishing bullish bets on the stock this morning. Shares in Tiffany & Co. fell as much as 8.8% to an intraday low of $54.58 today, but pared some of the earlier losses to stand 3.9% lower on the session at $57.52 as of 11:35am in New York. One investor betting on a recovery in the price of Tiffany & Co. shares initiated a three-legged spread to prepare for the rebound. The trader sold 2,500 puts at the January 2012 $50 strike for an average premium of $4.62 each, purchased the same number of in-the-money calls at the January 2012 $55 strike at an average premium of $8.46 per contract, and sold 2,500 calls up at the January 2012 $70 strike for an average premium of $2.77 a-pop. Net premium paid to establish the bullish position amounts to $1.07 per contract. Thus, the options player is prepared to make money in the event that Tiffany’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $56.07 through expiration day in January. Maximum potential profits of $13.93 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that shares surge 21.7% over the current price of $57.52 to trade above $70.00 by expiration next year. The jewelry retailer’s shares currently tout an all-time high of $65.76, attained back on December 21, 2010. Finally, it looks another trader pocketed profits today on a long-term bearish bet established last month on Valentine’s Day. It appears the investor originally purchased 500 puts at the January 2012 $60 strike for a premium of $5.65 each on February 14, when shares in TIF traded as high as $65.59. Today, it looks like the trader sold the now in-the-money puts for a hefty premium of $9.40 apiece. Net profits on the put sale amount to $3.75 per contract. The overall reading of options implied volatility on Tiffany & Co. is up 11.1% at 45.23% just before 11:55am. The luxury goods retailer is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens next Monday.…
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13% Thursday – When Will You Capitulate?

 It's starting!

 

The last of the bears are now capitulating.  We're hearing it in Member Chat and we're reading it in analyst reports and we're seeing the fund managers on TV – it is very out vogue to be a bear.  

Just a few weeks ago, I pointed out to Members how few bears remained by saying "Look to your left, look to your right, look in front of you and look behind you – you would be the only bear."  That was way back when "only" 20% of investors were bearish – as of yesterday, we lost 1/3 of those poor creatures and now only 13% of the market is bearish.  Now you can look diagonally as well and you'll STILL be the only bear!   

Certainly the market seems to be proving the primary axiom of "You can't fight the Fed."  Pretty much no matter what happens, the market goes up.  Bryan Leighton from Traddr! Makes a good point saying: "It's a neutral to positive market and the only thing that can change that is some sort of surprise event out of Europe or out of Asia or something major out of the US that the Fed is not ready for or prepared for.  If they are prepared for it – it will not happen – it will not have a major effect on the markets."

That's the reality we're dealing with out there.  As long as the Fed and their pet IBanks are running the markets and as long as volume is at 3-year lows, allowing the TradeBots to control each move – then it is wrong to be a bear.  But, is it 87% wrong?  87% bullish sentiment isn't just "very" bullish – it's a new, historic high.  It's like going to a fight where the entire crowd only cheers for one guy which, like professional wrestling, would be an automatic indication that the game must be fake, Fake, FAKE!  

As you can see from this longer-term chart, we are as extremely bullish now as we were extremely bearish in the two worst market events of the past quarter-century.  Much the way that Black Monday of 1987 and the Crashes of 2008/9 were unique buying opportunities at 15% bullish,
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Zero Hedge

Can Trumponomics Fix What's Broken?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In this past weekend’s missive, I stated:

Following the election, the market has surged around the theme of ‘Trumponomics’ as a ‘New Hope’ as tax cuts and infrastructure spending (read massive deficit increase) will fuel earnings growth for companies, stronger economic growth, and higher asset prices. It is a tall order give...



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Phil's Favorites

Half Trump Empty, or Half Trump Full?

 

Half Trump Empty, or Half Trump Full?

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

It was a bitter U.S. presidential election, but fortunately, the nastiest election mudslinging has come to an end…at least until the next political contest. Unfortunately, like most elections, even after the president-elect has been selected, almost half the country remains divided and the challenges facing the president-elect have not disappeared.

While some non-Trump voters have looked at the glass as half empty, since the national elections, the stock market glass has been overflowing to new record highs. Similar to the unforeseen British Brexit outcome in which virtually all pollsters and pundits got the results wrong, U.S. experts and ...



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ValueWalk

REAR VIEW MIRROR INVESTING

By Investment Master Class. Originally published at ValueWalk.

By Investment Master Class

“There is a danger of expecting the results of the future to be predicted from the past.”  John Maynard Keynes

“It is a cruel joke that the most popular asset of each era will impoverish it’s owners?  Every 20 years or so in the twentieth century, the most rewarding investment of the day reached the top of its rise and started a long decline, and the least rewarding investment hit bottom and began a long ascent.  These turning points enriched a small group of nonconformists who caught the turn, but the majority continued to put their money on...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil tops $55 for first time in 16 months as OPEC deal fuels buying (Reuters)

Brent crude oil prices rose above $55 a barrel on Monday, trading at a fresh 16-month high, on rising prospects of a tightening market after OPEC members agreed on a landmark deal to cut production last week.

European Investors Brush Off Italy Referendum Result (The Wall Street Journal)

Stocks pushed higher Monday while the euro recovered from early losses as investors largely brushed off Italian voters’ rejection of constitutional reform.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Inflation indicator testing multi-year breakout cluster!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Some tools are used to measure inflation or lack of. Some look at the price of Crude Oil, Doc Copper or the Commodities Index (CRB) to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. Since 2011, most commodities have created a series of lower highs and lower lows and for many, it has been easier to make the case of deflation than inflation, is in play.

Below looks at another tool, that is often used to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. This tool we are referring too is the TIPS/TLT ratio-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 4, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market needed a pause after the frenetic post election rally, and it finally arrived this week.  The pullback was mild as bulls would like.  This week’s “fear of the week” was Italy’s political referendum which happened today… and was rejected.

Italian voters were asked in a referendum to approve changes to the country’s constitution, which have been called the most sweeping since the end of World War II. The proposed reforms would cut the Senate’s size by two-thirds and reduce powers held by the country’s 20 regional governments. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes the changes will aid efficiency in parliament.

The reforms could also “make it easier to implement important legislation (such as measure...



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Members' Corner

Catch 22?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Summary
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
  • Dec 4th Italian Constitutional Referendum
  • Current State; No Change; Proposed Changes
  • Procedural Changes; Other Infrastructure Changes
Last Time Out
While spreads widen and market rates continue to rise vs "unnatural additive" rates (NIRP, ZIRP artificial central bank), the massive global bond bubble should continue its blood letting. - A Miracle On 34th Street?Meanwhi...

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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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