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Thankful Thursday – Janet Does it Again!

INDU WEEKLYThank you Madam Chairwoman!  

Not that Yellen said anything of substance but that won't stop her from saying it again this morning (9:30) so let the rally continue – for another day, at least.  

Yellen made an congressional appearance yesterday, where she argued the economy “needed more help”. She didn’t articulate how the Fed might help given the ongoing taper, although ZIRP would continue for a considerable time which bulls took to mean “indefinitely”.

Oddly she also suggested small cap stocks were near bubble conditions but then said she couldn’t see any bubbles.  All in all, it was the kind of obfuscating testimony that would have made Alan Greenspan proud.

RUT WEEKLYAs Dave Fry notes on his Dow chart, that index is just window dressing for the tourists, with 7 stocks (AXP, CVX, JNJ, MCD, MMM, UTX and V) accounting for ALL of the Dow's gains yesterday in this stupidly price-weighted index.   

The Russell is clearly in trouble and tested that bottom bar at 1,080 again (1,088 was the low) early in the morning and we caught the turn on the nose in our Live Member Chat room, when my 10:25 comment to our Members was:  

Wow, what a ride!  Gotta take some profits off the table on the Futures shorts – people don't like Janet's testimony but she can still pull it out with the Q&A.   /NQ at 3,500 – that shouldn't go down easy.  Actually it's a good bullish bounce play, as is 1,090 on /TF (with very tight stops).  /YM 16,300 is also a good line – go long on the laggard.  

SPY 5 MINUTE

As you can see from the intra-day SPY chart – the timing of that call could not have been better!  The Dow finished the day back at 16,500 and, at $5 per point per Futures contract, that made a $1,000 per contract on that call.  We took $1,000 and ran when the Russell hit 1,100 but then got a chance to reload for a ride to 1,110 later that day (+$2,000 per contract).  

The Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) went all the way back to 3,550 – also good for $1,000 per contract gains.  In case you missed it, we did a whole Futures Trading Webinar on Tuesday.  

Of course, it's not all Futures trading at PSW – that's just how we amuse ourselves while we wait for longer-term trade ideas to play out.  RIG, for example, who I've been pounding the table on all year, just had great earnings and should be back over $45 shorts (we were buying below $40).  Those are the kinds of trades we commit big money to in our Long-Term Portfolio – the short-tem stuff just gives us something to do, though it also serves as a quick hedge should the market turn on us.  

Yesterday, for example, in the morning post (which you would get pre-market if you SUBSCRIBED HERE) we had a $700 credit on an earnins spread on FSLR, selling 5 July $75 calls for $3 ($1,500) and buying 4 Jan $77.50/85 bull call spreads for $800 to cover.  Anything under $75 is at least a $700 per unit winner for us and, oddly enough, the stock spiked UP at the open, so you could have still gotten that trade in the morning for a huge daily profit.  

Yesterday, our earnings play was on TSLA, and I sent out an Alert to our Members to add it to our Short-Term Portfolio, saying the following at 2:35 in Live Chat:

TSLA may go up on talk about Norway (where there are massive incentives for EVs) and CHINA!!! (which is CHINA!!!) but I don't see them popping $220 (up 10%) or failing $180 (down 10%) too easily as those are the 50 and 200 dmas.

I'm generally bearish on TSLA and you can sell 3 Sept $200 calls for $26.50 ($7,950) and buy 2 2016 $220/300 bull call spreads for $20 ($4,000) and sell 2 2016 $140 puts for $22 ($4,400) for a net credit of $8,350, which means you have $80 x 2 = $160 upside protection on the long spreads plus $83.50 in cash = $243.50 divided by 3 short calls = $81 of upside protection without even taking rolling into account.  

Let's do a set of these in the STP and see how it plays out.  THIS IS A HIGH MARGIN, HIGH-RISK TRADE – NOT FOR EVERYONE!

As expected, TSLA disappointed and dropped to about $180 after hours, which is perfect for us though we'll have to wait a while to realize our full potential on this one.  We didn't want too short a time-frame, just in case we were wrong and, after all, isn't $8,350 in profits worth waiting for?  

Overall, we're still short at the same index lines we were shorting yesterday and this morning I reiterated my conviction short on oil at $100.50 and we are still expecting a nice drop to $98.50, which would be $2,000 per contract in profits so, when you read a post later and we talk about making $2,000 trading oil contracts and you say "why don't I ever see trade ideas like that" – this would be one of those times…  wink

Peace is in danger of breaking out in the Ukraine and sloppy NYMEX traders have loaded themselves up with 300M barrels scheduled for June delivery when there is NO INDICATION WHATSOEVER that demand is picking up.  More to the point, yesterday's oil inventory report shows what a scam it all is, with imports dropping by 6.5Mb per week from last year (which was already down 7Mb/week from the year before).   Also, note that refineries are running at 90% capacity yet no additional product is making it to the supply chain.  That indicates it's piling up in private storage – that's oil that will flood the market if prices start dropping.  

Of course we know it's a scam – but it's a scam we understand well enough to trade against, like a roulette wheel you know comes up red 75% of the time.  What do you do?  Bet red, of course!   Even as I'm wrting this, oil is dropping off to $100 again and – PRESTO! – another $500 per contract on those puts and the Egg McMuffins are paid for this morning.  

This is why we're doing our monthy futures trading workships.   Of course we can also play options on USO and SCO (and we do regularly in our Member Chat), but you can't make $500 before breakfast trading options, can you?  Don't fear futures trading, we teach it to hundreds of people every year – it's just another tool you can put in your box once you learn how to manage your trading.  

Dow 16,500 (/YM), S&P 1,870 (/ES), Nasdaq 3,550 (/NQ) and Russell 1,110 (/TF) are our shorting lines in this morning's futures.  We'll trade very cautiously (waiting for 3 to cross and shorting the 4th with tight stops) ahead of Yellen's 9:30 testimony but I think she's out of ammo at this point and we're likely to see new lows into the weekend.  That's another good reason for us to favor downwardly biased earnings plays.

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 102.49
    R2 – 101.74
    R1 – 101.29
    PP – 100.54
    S1 – 100.09
    S2 – 99.34
    S3 – 98.89


  2. Dividends seem to support prices in a correction:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/7/no-dividends-big-problems.html


  3. These analysts really know their stuff…

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/6/not-a-good-year-for-analysts-either.html

    I wonder if Cramer is in that study!


  4. Good Morning!


  5. Oil battles around $100…


  6. Good morning!  

    From one of our Republican front-runners: 

    Ted Cruz: Christians shouldn’t be required to do business with gay people.

    It would be funny if gay people refused to do business with Christians – then you'd be able to identify Christians by their bad haircuts!  cheeky

    This is a great list:

    21 Amazing Hotels You Need To Visit Before You Die

    I love cool hotels…  

    Oil testing $100 at the open, indexes a little weak but not too much.  RUT back at 1,100 already but Dow continues to press 16,500.  

    Dollar rising as Draghi says they won't stand for Euro over $1.40.  Gold at $1,290, silver $19.25 and a good long on /SI from here.  Weakening Euro not good for Japan but /NKD already below 14,150 – won't be pretty if they fail 14,000.  


  7. THESE PEOPLE! FFS! Does he think it would be okay for gay Firefighters and Police officers to refuse to do business with Christians or do you think that peoples' prejudices vanish when their house is on fire and their children are trapped?  Ironically his last name is Cruz which may be the name of a well known specialist magazine … hint do not google this at work.

    I wonder how online Christian businesses would vet the Gays?  Maybe there could be a special sensor fitted to computers … [staying Europe ... ]


  8. /CL – After my mistake yesterday of waiting too long to pull the trigger, I finally may be making progress since I more than paid for my McMuffins this morning, after shorting yesterday afternoon, by patiently waiting as the futures moved lower. Tried to fool me with a few head fakes higher during the move, but finally made close to $1000 between two accounts I manage as I made my buy to close at $99.94 which was very close to the bottom for now.I can definitely see where this can be both addictive and fun, but also very dangerous since I also now see how it can move up or down in seconds or reverse course at the blink of an eye. Pretty sure I just got lucky, but hopefully over time I will build skills and luck will play a smaller and smaller role (though in this arena it is always needed, no matter how skilled you are). 


  9. Cruz and others like him are the reason religion in the US is fading. Doubt even god is on his side.


  10. Dividends/StJ – Flight to quality.  That's why we jumped on dividend payers in the big crash.  Turned some 2% payers into 10% payers.   LOL on that analyst chart!  

    Reload opportunity on oil at $100.45 (short /CL).  

    LOL Malsg!  As to vetting gays – that's simple, they could make them wear pink triangles on their shirts.  It's a tried and true system that's been used by right-wing parties before.  

    Here's Cruz at a fundraiser:

    I'm sorry but if people in the Republican party don't speak out against this guy then they have no right to complain when people generalize the party as prejudiced.  

    Nice job Craigs.  You will lose as well as win, the trick is to control the losses as best you can and try to win a bit more often than you lose.  Learning to trade a channel without prejudice one way or the other is a big learning step – congrats.  


  11. phil,

    i sold the tsla sept 200calls without the other long plays.  they are up handsomely, but still $15 of premium.  your advice--take the money and run? wait for the downgrade police? buy a bull call spread now as protection?

    thanks.


  12. Wow, nice pop back up in the Futures – what the Hell did Janet say?   I see they have Cramer in a suit this morning, that's a bullish sign anyway.  

    Keep in mind Europe is up with the banking sector as BCS shows it can still save money by cutting 19,000 more jobs – is this really the kind of thing we should be celebrating?  

    Nonetheless, 1,880 on /ES again.  

    Finally a chance to buy SUNE again:

    • SunEdison (SUNE) recognized revenue on 76MW of solar system sales, below guidance of 85MW-105MW. But it also retained 74MW on its balance sheet, above guidance of 50MW-60MW. The company expects to recognize revenue on 60MW-80MW of systems in Q2, and to retain 100MW-120MW on its balance sheet.
    • For the whole of 2014, SunEdison still expects to complete 900MW-1150MW of systems (+90% at the midpoint). But it now expects to recognize revenue on 640MW-580MW (down from 500MW-650MW), and to retain 440MW-570MW on its balance sheet (up from 400MW-500MW).
    • In spite of Q1 pricing weakness, 2014 average project pricing is now expected to be in a range of $2.40-$2.75 vs. a prior $2.25-$2.75.
    • Solar energy revenue rose 87% Y/Y in Q1 to $371.5M. The chip wafer division (still set for an IPO) remains weak, with sales falling 11% Y/Y to $206.1M. SunEdison's gross margin fell to 3.8% from 4.9% in Q4 and 9.7% a year ago.
    • The company's solar project pipeline rose by 173MW Q/Q to 3.6GW. Backlog fell by 73MW to 1GW. 463MW of the pipeline is under construction, down from 503MW at the end of Q4.
    • SunEdison's (SUNEnet loss widened to $613.6M from $89.4M a year earlier, hurt by a charge on the company's convertible notes following a large rise in its share price.
    • Soft prices for solar panels and semiconductors, as well as higher costs associated with a strategy to retain rather than sell solar power plants, also harmed earnings.
    • Q1 resultsPR

    PCLN with $100 swing so far.  CMG popping back up again.  TSLA $182, AAPL holding $590, GMCR back over $100.  WYNN back at $200, LQMT 0.19!!  

    Overview of Chain Store Sales seems to be driving us up, XRT up 2% – glad we got out – now all out as stops were triggered (this is all I can find so far):

    Chain Store Sales

    Released On 5/8/2014 For Apr, 2014

    Highlights
    The onset of warm weather beginning in March and extending through April appears to have given a major lift to sales at chain stores which are reporting exceptionally strong results for April. But the gains for April were skewed higher by this year's later Easter which pushed sales into the month at the expense of March. Still, when taking March and April together, results are very strong and show a definite lift from depressed levels in the unusually heavy weather of February and January. Today's results point to a gain for the ex-auto ex-gas reading of the government's April retail sales report, a gain on top of March's 1.0 percent surge for this reading.

    Definition
    Monthly sales volumes from individual department, discount, apparel, and drugstore chains are usually reported on the first Thursday of each month. Chain store sales correspond with roughly 10 percent of retail sales. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending trends. There is no official composite number for each month's sales, merely sales figures for individual chains. Also, which chains release monthly numbers varies over time as corporate policies sometimes change in regard to providing monthly numbers to the public in addition to quarterly data. 

  13. Oh, by the way, Chain stores heavily discounted this year, so sales may not equal profits and non-chain sales may have suffered proportionally – so let's not read too much into this data.  

    TSLA/STP, Lunar – Well, if you did the short puts, it's a well-hedged long position as it stands and certainly, today, the Sept $200 calls (now $16), still have a lot of premium in them that will wash out a bit if TSLA flatlines for a few days.  Probably $11 is the best you can expect without waiting another few months – unless TSLA crashes, in which case the longs will suffer and then you are in for the long haul and a bit bullish on TSLA.  

    At the moment, I see the 2016 $220s at $35, the short $300s at $16.50 for net $18.50 and the short $140 puts at $24 so -$5.50 x 200 to close that set ($1,100) and another $300 x $16 = $4,800 to buy back the short calls is giving back $3,700 of the $8,350 we collected for a very quick $4,650 profit.

    So we have to weigh that against letting it play out and we should assume our longs will lose 1/2 their value by Sept (200 x $9.25 – $1,850) but, of course the short puts will offset that a bit but the short calls will lose $4,800 in premium over the next 6 months FOR A FACT, so this trade makes $800 a month if we leave it alone.   Depending on your margin – there's no particular reason to hold it but TSLA is very likely to move up or down 10-20% more than once between now and then, so you also have to be willing to ride it all out. 

    For the purposes of the STP, we'll learn more by keeping it open – so we will.  


  14. Look at GMCR… Up 6.4% for the day. I played that with a double-diag last minute yesterday (sorry, didn't post) but that tried my patience this morning… I ended up closing the short calls just in time before they took off and made over 100% on the trade mostly with the long ones (puts cancelled out), but I was surprised by how much they took off…

    These double-diags look good on TOS with the risk profile, but the IV crush on both the long and the shorts always makes it interesting the day after since it never turns out the way it shows because it assumes that IV will go down equally which is not the case.


  15. /NG is diving. The Natural gas report must be bad.


  16. Phil – Opinions on add's

    I did 1/2 positions of the following, and it might be time to add?

    CCJ Jan16 20P, sold for 2.30, now 3.35 down 45%.  Add a few?

    TASR Jan16 15P, sold for 2.99, now 4.50 down 33%. Add a few?

    I have a standing order to increase the Jan15 LNKD 100P at -50% 


  17. Diags/StJ – Yes, very good way to play if you have time to deal with it.  

    Wheeeee! on oil yet again.  That's what we expected in-line small build in nat gas – don't know what they thought it would be but they didn't get it:

     

    Adding/Burr – As long as you have decided to add to the position, then you plan to stick with it for another 600+ days, so why rush?  Let them form a proper bottom first – at least for a few days.  Worst thing that happens is the stock spikes back up and you never needed to DD – flat or down, you're no worse off and get a better sale so game theory says 66% favors waiting.  


  18. Putin tells separatists to cut the crap – that's what's killing oil.   Failing $100 now! 


  19. Putin / Phil – I would not trust the guy but at the same time, economic problems at home might make it more difficult to get involved in a war. Crimea is turning out to be a lot more expensive than they thought and some people there are now having buyer's remorse. They probably called Cheney and Co. to get an estimation on the cost of the war!


  20. Phil- Is /CL playable at its current level of right around $100 or do you wait for it to move back up to 100.45 or so?


  21. The run up was very low volume, TLT is rising, never actually fell, and today's top seems to be history.


  22. Rig/Phil- What's up with RIG? Moved up 4-5 % early after a good earnings report, but has given up all gains and retreated a percent or two. Has there been some negative news in the last hour or is this just a sell the news event?


  23. Should have stuck to my guns on swapping my TZA call to a TNA call at 109.5 on IWM.  That has been a very dependable spot to make that flip for a few weeks now.


  24. JPH

    Now that you have posted that 109.5 will never do it again, likely will signal the big correction.


  25. Phil / TSLA
    With mutiny of the shareholders on a beat, plus we KNOW that 2Q is going to be a disaster without any credits, NA saturation, and China surprise. Even the dip buyers looks like their not biting at $193.
    What you do you think about DD on the TSLA play while their is still good premium to be had ? 


  26. p.s.
    one of the reasons I bring it up – very low margin with PM


  27. ~~Producing 455     428     27     27       761     -40.2     844     -46.1  Now it seem energy has cut natural gas production.

    Ther you go Phil, why does it do that, current is 761, last year 844, totals the same, now 1852, year ago 2037.

    After the banks these energy guys are next in line, forgot, same people!


  28. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-could-lose-3-billion-170221468.html~~Testifying before a congressional panel, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen said the IRS will audit 100,000 fewer individuals this year as part of congressionally mandated cuts to the tax agency's budget. Audits of high-wealth individuals, businesses and partnerships will also decline, he said.

    But they will audit me as they always do! In an act of FU IRS I didn't file this year!


  29. Dow 16,500 (/YM) is my favorite shorting line at the moment – it's flat for the year and RUT is down 5% and Nas down 2.5%.  NYSE, oddly, is up 2.5% – very strange action.  

    Notice how we were nicely in sync until late April, when the Nas and RUT began dropping out and, so far, the others have ignored the problem.  As I often say, think of them as tugboats and the S&P (thick line) is the big ship.  If they all pull in the same direction, the S&P will follow but, when they diverge like this, then it's chaos for  a while but none of these little ships can get too far away from the S&P before the tow line snaps them back.

    So, we should, if the market is healthy, expect to see the RUT snap back up off the 1,100 line (-5%) but we also know, from the 5% rule, that a 1% move in the RUT (10 points) is only 1/2 the weak bounce we expect off the 100-point drop from 1,200 in March.  We already had a strong bounce off the April low so only getting a weak bounce now begins to form the dreaded shoulder side of a head and shoulders pattern.  So, either the Dow, NYSE and S&P will snap lower and join the RUT in oblivion or the RUT will get back in line and move up.

    That's why the RUT is so important at the moment, confirmed by the Nas, which seems very bouncy as well.  

      Individually, I'm seeing:

    • Dow 16,600 has been the top with pulbacks to 16,000 (and don't forget /YM is about -50), so we're dealing with 120-point levels and that works from the top too so over 16,480 is only a weak retrace but, in theory, over 16,600 shouldn't be possible if the RUT is below a weak bounce (we'll get to that next) – and that's back to the tug-boat example.   So, below 16,480 is 16,360 and failing that is bad for the Dow and we just saw that line hold yesterday, almost on the button, which confirms the 5% Rule is working (which confirms these are bot-driven moves).  

    Notice the math doesn't change, these are the same levels we always use and it's almost freaky how closely the indexes line up with our expectations.  

    • S&P 1,880 is the top with brief moves above but it's the 17.5% line over 16,000 so we'll respect that and 1,920 would be the 20% line – if we ever get there.  We pretty much touched it on 4/4 but plunged back to 1,865 the same day – not a favorable test result!  1,820 has held as a floor and that means the S&P is making a 60-point move the same way the Dow is making 600-point moves and that makes perfect sense because the Dow is 10x the S&P and the same computer program is manipulating them both – that's why, on the Big Chart, the S&P lines are exactly 1/10th the Dow lines.  The reason the indexes have moved away from each other is because of the last round of component changes but the Bots don't know or care about that – they run the same algos either way – it only LOOKS different because the units of measurement have changed.  

    That makes the S&P easy to figure from the top as well as we're working with 12-point blocs so a weak retrace from 1,880 is 1,862, which was yesterday's low at the exact same moment the Dow tested it's strong retrace line.  

    • Nasdaq is a pain in the ass because the Composite is 4,105 and the 100, which is what the Futures track, is 3,575 (87%).  Looking at the main index (the one that was 5,000 in 1999), we topped out at 4,375, which is 32.5% over our 3,300 Must Hold Line.  Logically, when we're that far over, we should be rolling the must hold up 20% to 3,960, which is what we will do if the Dow ever clears 16,800 for more than a couple of days.  

    So, from 3,960, I'd be inclined to round off to 4,000, which is a 20% retrace from 5,000 so that should be our working line and, if we're bullish, then we should see 4,400 topped in a proper breakout.  Meanwhile, if we assume 4,000 is the base and we made a 10% move that failed to 4,400, we have 80-point lines going up but the Nas is big on 25 lines so call them 75s and that means 4,075, 4,150 are the weak and strong indicators.  Right now, we're right in between at 4,105.  

    By the way, before we had pictures for the big chart, that was all that mattered – how many weaks and how many strongs and 3 of 5 would indicate direction.  

    • NYSE 10,000 was clearly the right line and 10,500 is the 5% line and 10,750 is 7.5% with the NYSE now at 10,667.  Another reason we don't move the Must Hold lines is the NYSE has given no indication at all that it will be able to go over 11,000 (10% line) and we're back the tugboat that holds the others back.  
    • RUT 1,100 is the 10% line and 1,200 is the 20% line and the RUT moves like the only thing trading it is a computer running on the 5% Rule.  Complete obedience of the lines makes it fantastic to trade – except the direction it moves is quick and seemingly random!  Still, 1,100 is a very good floor (so bullish above) and 1,200 has been too hard to hold (so short below) and, at the moment, it's fallen into the lowest quadrant of that range – not able to stay over 1,125.  That indicates a downward bias as it makes a triangle squeezy thingy down there (and it's below the 200 dma at 1,115 at the moment).  

    So, either the RUT comes out of the triangle squeezy thingy to the downside and drags the others with it or the Dow, NYSE and S&P pop over their resistance and bring the RUT along for the ride.  Interesting times indeed…


  30. Wombat TSLA as usual you are burning the barn already on the first day give it time they will hang themselves.


  31. RE: Ted Cruz  -  Oh $%*#, do I have to be linked with Ted Cruz again?!  Just for balance, not all Christians are lining up behind Ted Cruz and what should really be called The Religious Right.  The United Church of Christ is suing the State of North Carolina so we CAN officiate at gay weddings.  Story here: http://www.ucc.org/news/free-religion-suit-protect-all-faiths-04282014.html


  32. ~~revtodd64

    Never will I be confused, the truly faithful are mostly quiet, the RIGHT never practices what they preach.


  33. TSLA – it's been something like a year but finally unburdened my margin-consuming credit spread on this turkey and the put spread can (should!) erode to expiry next week..  FU TSLA, and I mean that in the most robust way.


  34. (and F-Me for ever trying to short a MoMo..!)


  35. Oil/Craigs – It's always playable – you just might not like it when you lose!  surprise  I'd say you could play oil either way at $100 but my bias, of course is to the downside – so I'm only playing below $100 or $100.50 with tight stops.  I rarely go the other way on myself as it makes me disinclined to ride out a move against me and I usually am playing conviction trades because I don't have time to watch it all day. The Dollar just got rejected at 79.50, back to 79.40 and that's stopping oil from going lower so far.  

    VIX 12.93 – Dow up 260 points since 10:30 yesterday - what volatility?  

    TLT/Shadow – Don't forget, they had to peddle 30-year notes today and they can't afford a bad auction.  That's why Yellen is yapping this week.  After 1pm, we might see what's real in the World.  

    RIG/Craigs – The CC must have sucked.  Of course, they did make a 10% move up in just over a month so a lot of bottom-fishers may be just taking profits off the table and people who were stuck in them on the way down may be happy to see the end of it as well.  I don't see anything that would make me sell.  

    Speaking of Conference Calls – NLY back to $11.50 after CC, as predicted by me at 7:49:

    May 8th, 2014 at 7:49 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    So, let's wait for the CC and see where they are – probably $11.50 end of day.

    TSLA/Wombat – No thanks.  I'm not into averaging a position into a lower return than I already have.  There will be other things to trade and other times to trade TSLA and, with a Sept/2016 spread, there will likely be times to adjust the spread we have.  If you want to increase the risk in the trade, sell one of the long $220 calls and leave 2 short 2016 $300s and 3 short Sept $200s – but it would really suck if they announce a partner and start building the Gigafactory.  Also, be careful with TSLA because the brokers have been known to change the margin requirements on them without notice.  

    And what Yodi said.  

    Burning Barn Burning House animated GIF

    Same people/Shadow – Oh they have definitely cut back nat gas production but I'll be bullish on nat gas next year as they move closer to LNG.  Imagine all the gas that will go into storage and on ships for the next few years – probably a year's supply will end up in storage and transit (like oil now) and it will take 3 years at +33% production to fill it – prices will skyrocket.  

    IRS/Shadow – I wouldn't go shouting about that!  

    Cruz/Rev – Yeah, it sucks to have guys like that go around "speaking for you" doesn't it?  

    Congrats Scott – It's nice to bury those things finally.  


  36. lol, Rev – no, would never link you with Cruz – just as nobody links me as a Quaker with the Old Order Amish (who are more admirable than Cruz, though)


  37. Yodi 
    I agree, thats why I though of DD on the current config. I think their 2Q is going to be a disaster. 

    ( Oh, and BTW, I never touched the CZR butterfly – just want to really understand the mechanics and strategy of the flies )

    Phill // nice tug boat pic, I was hoping for an Evil Kenevil pic ( for you oldies out there ) : > Regarding margins, good point, I know it well. Averaging in at a lower position makes sense. With Scottmi, I think I'm still in FU mode with TSLA.


  38. TSLA/Phil  Took you suggestion on doing another  TSLA trade….10 Jan 16 140 Puts Short at $24.00, BE=116. Stp= $34.15 Volitility 34.15 %. 


  39. Phil

    Penalty for not paying and interest is a per centage of owed. 1 million X 0 = ? Before W didn't need to file, now they attack the poorest people.


  40. Phil reason

    Lost money end of Dec. made it back Jan. 3 sow they make me pay on a loss. Not fair, do corps pay?


  41. I really like the commercial for the BMW i3, know it's not the same completely apples to apples with TSLA but with i8 also coming out, TSLA is going to start feeling the beginning of competition for it's space.  I definitely think within 2 years this stock can be 100 or lower.


  42. Hey Phil, this would be a great weekend to visit your alma mater.  The Progressive Democrats of America are having their annual meeting and fund raiser here at the church.  Sen. Bernie Sanders is speaking here Friday night, and again on Saturday with Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Jim McGovern.  Jim Hightower, Thom Hartmann, Tom Hayden, Medea Benjamin and a ton of other lefties are coming in for panels.  Should be a fun weekend.  I get to do the welcome Saturday morning right after Mimi Kennedy.


  43. Burrben

    Get read. The weight factor is a big one, shocking the all electric weighs under 3,000 lbs. They could put a much bigger battery pack and still be only normal for small cars. I also think it is the right amount of range, long range is not for all electric as the carging time, if done with any interest in safety is too long. Hybrid is the longer range way. If we just stopped all the short hops with cold engines carbon would be cut over 50% and that makes sense.


  44. Holly smoke Rev…. Did you invite Fox News to broadcast the panel discussions?


  45. Auto edit, so becomes sow great becomes get, and some think robots will solve everything. At what cost? Artificial intellegence is a bad joke.


  46. BMW / Burrben – That BMW makes a nice city car for the price but it's probably aimed at a slightly different demographic section than the Model S. And at $47K or so (current exchange), not cheap for a much smaller car. A better comparison might be when TSLA finally releases their smaller model – whatever it will be called then. That range extender is a motorcycle engine like the Volt does so not a gas free car.

    On the other hand, BMW could have a leg up on that market by the time TSLA gets there. I think that 5 years from now we could have some very nice options as far as EV cars are concerned and it's a good thing.


  47. Wombat CZR One the money 20$$$$$$  Hope it last an other week and we cashing in on both sides.

    The secret is PATIENCE


  48. stjean

    The target price in the US is $40K, the tax structure is different and the US car will weight a little more. Remember European delivery so you can vacation with your new car, that is all but gone because of what I am saying, it is apples and oranges.


  49. Phil….was this you?

    A trader bought 15,000 January 17 calls for $3.66 while selling the same number of January 27 calls for the bid price of $0.98 and January 12 puts for $1.09, according to optionMONSTER systems. Volume was more than triple the previous interest in all three strikes, so this is a new opening combination.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-draws-bullish-strategy-153218454.html


  50. I have no position at all in SCTY but the fact that it's up this much today is a joke.  That company is one big accounting scheme.  They will be bleeding money over the next two years and still might not see earnings.  I'm hoping it breaks 60 so I can go on the short side with options.


  51. Looks like RUT WANTS TO GO RED FOR THE DAY. Ten point drop in RUT RESULTED in .75 cent increase in TNA $67 put. Just playing the channel as it ping prongs in parallel with RUT.


  52. stj

    OK both apples, one green tart other red sweet.


  53. Hey all,

    What's up with bonds? just fell off a cliff


  54. rdn4evr

    http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=462275&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top~~Weak are the results of the monthly 30-year bond auction where coverage of 2.09 is the lowest since August 2011. Bidding was loose as the high yield of 3.440 percent is 3 full basis points above the when-issued bid at the bidding deadline. Buy-and-hold accounts showed little interest in the auction based on the heavy takedown by dealers who were awarded 51 percent of the $16 billion offering. The results contrast sharply with yesterday's very strong 10-year note auction and suggest that investors aren't interested in tying up their money for 30 years, at least not at 3.375 percent which is the coupon for today's issue. Demand for Treasuries is down in reaction to the results.


  55. thx shadow


  56. StJeanLuc –  I think all these electric cars are crazy, and don't make any sense from a "frugal buyer" perspective.  I can get a Passat TDI that get's amazing milage and range for around 30K.  Plus it's a really nice car.

    "Passat TDI getting up to 43 hwy mpg, you can travel up to 795 miles on one tank of fuel"

    Also, people forget that electricity isn't free.  It has to be generated and most of that generation isn't clean.  Also, if everyone in the city has a electric car that's going to require massive upgrades to infastructure, which someone will have to bear, and then they'll tax the sh*t out of something, and bring pricing back into line.  As my mom said, Nothing is free – someone always pays.


  57. is anyone else in END ? comments ?


  58. Burrben

    AGREED!!!!! Electric cars are not the answer, especially diesel could easily get 60 mpg or more in a small light car. Then we can burn hydrogen in either gas or diesel engines and forget range problems.


  59. TASR now selling cameras to the London police:

    http://mashable.com/2014/05/08/police-body-cameras-taser/

    London Metropolitan Police will be attaching small cameras to their uniforms as part of a year-long pilot to capture evidence in real time.

    About 500 police offers will be testing the concept of body-worn video cameras in nine London boroughs. The move aims to help police capture, manage, and share digital evidence while out on the streets, but also monitor how both officers and persons of suspects interact during arrests and crime scenes.

    The footage then automatically uploads to a website (Evidence.com), where authorities can review what's been captured.

    The Metropolitan Police are partnering with Arizona-based Taser International for its Axon Body cameras, which can log up to 12 hours of continuous video.


  60. Phil//  Is this a good time to initiate TWTR trade? If so what would be a new entry idea?  Thanks.


  61. Burrben – There are some drawbacks to diesel, for example pollution. No matter how clean they make them, particulates are really bad. In some areas in Europe, they are starting to take action against diesel.

    There are clean ways to produce electricity, the political will is not there (or not paid enough).


  62. stjeanluc/Fox News Broadcast – I don't think the Raging Grannies would let them in.  These are the "bouncers" that will be at the door.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwWuwW6ISE8


  63. i just had a TASR Jan16 15/25 BLCS fill for $1.75


  64. True, but here in FL with everyone 4th person driving a F250/350 or a cummins Dodge, my future Passat will be praised as a "green" car.  I'm not a Martyr trying to solve pollution, I'm just a boy….asking a car….to give me great mileage….


  65. Rev – Although it would be so much fun to see Sanders debate Hannity… 


  66. Speaking of CZRfly – $19.98 now – right on target!  

    TSLA/IHS – Just the puts?  That's going to be a fun ride.  

    Penalties/Shadow – Yes, I guess they gotta find you first.   Meanwhile, sounds like you need to talk to an account about either electing trading status for your returns or incorporating yourself.  

    /TF down to 1,103 again from 1,115 – that's a $1,200 move (and 1%) up and down this morning and the VIX says this is the least volatile market it's seen in a decade.  

    TSLA/Rustle – BMW has sandwiched them on top and bottom.  If BMW comes out with a mid-range – TSLA can have real trouble moving anything.  It's still a very nice car, but it should be $25,000 cheaper, which is essentially their margin.  Big car companies don't do their math and will be thrilled to sell cars at 5% margins – that's why TSLA will never be a mass-production car – not without drastic and painful changes in their whole operation.  Of course, I've been saying this for years now.  

    Sounds good Rev, I wish you would have given me more of a heads up.  Next time I will come and do a sermon on the economics of greed.

    Range/Shadow – 100 miles is plenty almost all of the time and having the hybrid option means you never have to fear running out of power – that's a winner.  On the other hand - 

      

    SUNE/Cdt – Might be someone I know, actually.  Too early for me to catch the knife but I like the spread.  I'm hoping to see $15 and we can jump in.  

    SCTY/Rustle – I can't believe they bounced back off that report.  Gotta be forced up.  We were shorting them from $75 to $85 and back to $55 before getting bored with them earlier in the year.  

    Submitted on 2013/10/11 at 10:46 am

    SCTY/Partha – Gotta stay away, they just bumped up their own estimates considerably:

    Can't tell if it's BS, just moving numbers around or if they just so happen to be doing great yet but this game seems somehow familiar to me:

    They also just bought Zep Solar for $158M so what they effectively did is raise $160M in cash, use it to buy a ton of additional installations that were in Zep's pipeline and then report the new projections as if they are natural growth to get investors all excited.  There's nothing wrong with acquisition growth but, like most things Musk does, he skirts the very edge of the law to paint the best possible picture for the stock market and the retail investors respond like Pavlov dogs whenever he rings a bell.  

    On $128M in sales last year, SCTY LOST $64M.  In the first two quarters of this year, SCTY boosted sales to $67M ($140M run rate) and lost $55M already, on their way to losing $5 per share for 2013.  As with TSLA, they project losing half as much next year on double the sales – sounds good if it all works but still, losing $1.70 per $47 share makes them seem a bit pricey because they'd have to double up again just to make $2 a share in 2015 and MAYBE that would give them a p/e of about 25, which is still way high for a solar company (even coo-coo FSLR has a p/e of 13).  

    Musk is a genius, that's for sure, but it has nothing to do with actually running companies and everything to do with manipulating market perception of those companies.  

     
    Submitted on 2014/01/16 at 9:44 am

    Good morning! 

    SCTY flying on upgrade – time to short again soon!  

    • SolarCity (SCTY) +3.8% premarket after Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $90 price target, as analyst Vishal Shah expects SCTY's install base to double through 2015 and 2016.
    • The firm believes SCTY is poised to benefit from accelerating growth of distributed generation as retail electricity customers switch to solar and an increasing number of U.S. states achieve grid parity by 2016.
    • Shah estimates SCTY's market penetration is ~0.2% in existing markets and thinks cumulative MW deployed can reach at least 3 GW by 2016, which would still imply only ~1% market penetration; he says his 2016 estimates are likely conservative as SCTY is targeting 1M customers, implying ~6 GW deployed by mid-2018.

    Typical Musk move, calls one of his bankers to squeeze the shorts ahead of expiration. 

    12 SCTY Feb $75 calls can be sold for $5.25 ($6,300), against 8 2016 $65/80 bull call spreads at $4.50 ($3,600) for a net $2,700 credit.  

    Submitted on 2014/02/10 at 12:41 pm

    SCTY $75 again – I like them short too (earnings 2/24).   5 March $85 calls can be sold for $4.40 ($2,200) and that pays for Jan $90/105 bull call spreads at $3.50 ($1,750) for a net $450 credit.  Also for the Income Portfolio – double short on Musk!  

    Bonds/Rdn – I told you, the whole week has been a farce in order to push bond sales.  The final auction was the 30-year today at 1pm and, the second it ended, all the fake support withdrew.  

    • Enjoying a session in the green, the bottom falls out of bond prices after buyers at the Treasury's $16B 30-year bond auction balk at the low yields.
    • The auction yielded a rate of 3.44%, causing existing paper to jump to 3.423% from 3.385% just moments earlier. Calling the auction a weak one, CRT Capital's Ian Lyngren notes direct bidders took down just 8.4% of the action vs. a 16% average over the last four sales. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.09% from a 2.45% average.
    • TLT -0.4%, TBT +0.8%

    TWTR/Rookie – Yes, I think $30 is a solid floor.  Actually, I think $40 will be a good floor and you can sell the 2016 $30 puts for $7.50, which is a 25% return even for IRA people with full margin.  TOS tells me we can sell 10, collect $7,500 and only have $4,276 in net margin, so the return on margin is going to be 175% in 600 days if TWTR holds 30 – that's a reason to put 5 more in the Income Portfolio and the LTP (we already sold 5 for $5.70 as part of a spread). 


  67. Phil // you playing the bounce off 1100 ?


  68. 1,100 again on /TF.  Everything selling off in a controlled descent, so far.  

    Bounce/Wombat – No, this one should fail.  


  69. 16,500 on the Dow, however, is a great short if it crosses (/YM).  /ES 1,875, /NQ 3.550 and /TF 1,100 are the confirms.   Dollar 79.41 at the moment and oil $100.11.


  70. Hi Phil – NAK is down to 0.64; were we going to DD on this at some point?


  71. Just my 2c, but I like the Jan15 TWTR 30P's more.  4.80mid vs 7.30 on the 16's.  They'll also decay faster.


  72. Burrben

    Don't fear car diesel is not a problem, first they are not that dirty and second the real polluters are trucks especially older ones with need of  a simple remedy, clean or change the air filter. Easy to spot a cheap scape, black soot when they accelerate not enough air to fuel.


  73. Mayo gives thumbs down on BofA annual meeting

    01:24 PM ET · BAC

    • One day after attending Bank of America’s (BAC +1.2%) annual meeting, CLSA’s Mike Mayo cuts his FY14 EPS estimate all the way to $0.55 per share from $1 previously, based on the lender having just $2.4B on reserve for what could end up being a far larger MBS settlement with the DOJ.
    • Other issues: “Poor governance, including missing a compensation committee head, different time frames in financial charts, and a meeting that ended before all questions were taken, not to mention a chairman who seems to us like a figurehead.” Mayo notes CEO Moynihan ran the entire meeting while Chairman Chad Holliday only gave a few “mostly nonresponsive answers.”
    • Positives: The U.S. consumer banking arm, the investment bank, and wealth management.
    • Mayo continues to rate the stock a Sell with $15 price target.
    • Previously: BofA fields questions on accounting foul-up at annual meeting


  74. That's perfect for news, Phil! Easy to spot. Thanks!


  75. Emerging markets lead big month of ETP inflows

    01:02 PM ET · BLK

    • Global ETP flows in April rose to a six-month high of $33.5B, according to BlackRock’s (BLK) latest ETP Landscape, with emerging market ETPs leading both equity and fixed income flows during the month.
    • Broad emerging market equity flow of $5.9B was the first positive month since October, and $1.3B into EM bond funds was the best month since October 2012.
    • U.S. equity flows of $11B were led by the energy sector, which added $1.9B of funds.
    • BlackRock’s iShares has $952.5B in ETP assets after adding $31.8B YTD. It’s the number one ETP player by assets, but has lost 20 basis point of market share this year to 38.2%. State Street (STT) is number two with $408.9B in assets, down $4.8B YTD, and losing 90 basis points of market share to 16.4%.


  76. Molycorp -16% as losses widen, rare earth metal prices drop

    12:59 PM ET · MCP

    • Molycorp (MCP -16.2%) after Q1 losses more than doubled as revenues were hurt by lower prices for rare earths and magnetic powders and lower sales volumes in its resources segment.
    • MCP’s Q1 volumetric sales totaled 3,518 metric tons, up from 3,274 metric tons in the year-ago period, but average selling price fell 24.6% to $33.69/kg.
    • MCP says it produced less material than expected at its Mountain Pass facility in California, citing interrupted production as it worked to optimize operations.
    • Cash and cash equivalents fell to $236M from $404M in the prior-year quarter; generated negative cash flows of $45.8M from its operational activities.


  77. Gabelli upgrades FireEye following post-earnings drubbing

    12:48 PM ET · FEYE

    • “We still see more investment risks than investment opportunities at the current share price, yet we believe current share price does not offer an attractive premium for selling the shares and the current share price is close to our 2015 [present market value] estimate,” says Gabelli’s Hendi Susanto, explaining his decision to upgrade FireEye (FEYE +0.1%) to Hold.
    • Shares initially traded higher following the upgrade, but have given back most of their gains. They were clobbered yesterday due to weak EPS guidance and organic growth concerns.
    • Gabelli’s move comes ahead of FireEye’s May 21 lockup expiration.


  78. Boeing expects number of companies leasing planes to airlines to grow

    12:42 PM ET · BA

    • Boeing (BA +0.3%) expects the number of companies leasing planes to airlines to grow as carriers increasingly turn to renting aircraft and investors seek to enter the lucrative market, according to Boeing Capital exec Kostya Zolotusky.
    • ~50% of the global airliner fleet eventually will be on operating leases from 41% now, so many airplanes that the current number of lessors will have difficultly addressing it.
    • Zolotusky says ~70% of financiers and investors working in the aviation sector are looking to increase investments, citing a recent company survey.
    • He also attempts to reassure worries that high aircraft production might lead to overcapacity, saying Boeing will adjust its production plans if demand doesn’t play out as expected.


  79. SanDisk rallies as Street praises investor day; Micron also gains

    12:40 PM ET · SNDK

    • “The 3D NAND industry cycle will be longer than historical patterns and SanDisk (SNDK +3.7%) has a longer-term mix shift toward higher value enterprise SSDs and 2D NAND cost advantages,” writes Raymond James while upgrading the NAND flash giant to Strong Buy.
    • Nomura has upped SanDisk to Neutral and hiked its 2014/2015 estimates. The firm is still worried about the NAND pricing/margin gap that exists between SanDisk and rivals, it thinks “the risks of an earnings miss in 2H14 have declined” amid seasonal improvements and slowing industry supply growth.
    • In its investor day slides (.pdf), SanDisk forecasts annual NAND flash industry bit growth will be in a modest 30%-40% range going forward. The company also noted its client SSD sales tripled in 2013 to $922M – SanDisk claims to be the market’s #2 vendor. Enterprise sales almost doubled in 2013 to $267M; SanDisk is aiming for over $1B in 2016 enterprise sales.
    • Of interest to Seagate (STX +1%) and Western Digital (WDC +1.7%) investors: SanDisk predicts the SSD attach rate for business notebooks will grow to 39% in 2017 from 16% in 2013, and that the rate for consumer notebooks will grow to 21% from 10%. The hard drive industry is already expected to see limited growth due to SSD pressure.
    • Both SanDisk and NAND rival Micron (MU +3.3%) have made fresh 52-week highs. Micron rallied last week following a report the company is set to hike DRAM prices.
    • Yesterday: SanDisk hiking dividend to $0.30/share


  80. Highlights from Ford’s annual meeting

    12:28 PM ET · F

    • Ford (F +2.8%) ran a clean sweep at its annual shareholder meeting with all 16 board members approved for another term.
    • Shareholders rejected a proposal to end the two-tier system of stock that gives the Ford family considerable power. The number of shareholders voting in favor of the proposal increased about a percentage point to 34.4% from a year ago.
    • Also shot down in flames was a proposal to make it easier for a group of shareholders to call a special meeting.
    • The growth of the Lincoln brand in China was topic during the Q&A session. Execs says to expect five new models by 2016.
    • Praise for departing CEO Alan Mulally came from all corners. Ford executive chairman called Mulally a “hall of fame” CEO.
    • Ford annual meeting webcast


  81. KB Home boosted by UBS upgrade

    12:18 PM ET · KBH

    • KB Home (KBH +2.1%) is the strongest performer in the homebuilder sector this session after UBS cashes in its chips on its Sell call on the name.
    • The stock has been sliding since the start of March (down about 20%), the move broken only for a couple of days after cruising past earnings estimates in mid-March.


  82. Analysis: Profit growth a concern at FedEx

    12:06 PM ET · FDX

    • Barclays downgrades FedEx (FDX -1%) to Equal Weight on concerns that the company’s profit growth could be held back as management focuses on other priorities.
    • The investment firm notes the FedEx culture and incentive structure seem to be aimed at driving near-term growth instead of driving capital return.


  83. Agrium -1.2% as Raymond James downgrades, citing downside guidance

    11:59 AM ET · AGU

    • Agrium (AGU -1.2%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with a $100 price target, down from $106, at Raymond James after the company’s lower Q1 earnings and revenue Y/Y, lackluster Q2 guidance and weaker H2 macro outlook.
    • AGU’s Q1 performance was restrained by an extended winter, widespread rail congestion and a significant nitrogen outage at its Carseland plant.
    • New Q2 EPS guidance of $3.85-$4.35 was well below the $4.98 analyst consensus estimate, and Raymond James sees additional macro headwinds surfacing including falling urea prices due to the return of sizable Chinese imports that likely will keep a lid on AGU shares.


  84. Cree gains on Gabelli upgrade, buyback expansion

    11:21 AM ET · CREE

    • Cree (CREE +3.2%) has increased the value of its existing buyback program to $300M. After accounting for $99.6M in recent purchases, the LED lighting/component maker is free to buy back $200.4M worth of shares (3.5% of shares at current levels) through June 2015.
    • Meanwhile, Gabelli has upgraded Cree to Buy, while citing an improved valuation. Shares made fresh 52-week lows yesterday after diving two weeks in response to a revenue miss and light guidance.


  85. Thai stocks slide following ouster of PM, possible criminal charges

    11:20 AM ET · THD

    • Adding to yesterday’s charges which forced the resignation of PM Yingluck Shinawatra, she now may face criminal proceedings as the National Anit-Corruption Commission finds her guilty of mishandling a multi-billion dollar rice subsidy program.
    • “The opposition will use other judicial challenges to peel off more cabinet members and seek to erode this caretaker government ability to govern in any capacity over the coming weeks,” says Eurasia Group.
    • Unsurprisingly, foreign investors exited, pulling $234M out of Thailand debt yesterday, the biggest withdrawal in nearly two months.
    • Thai stocks ended 1.7% lower at 1,379.02
    • ETFs: THD, TTF


  86. Suncor employee killed by a bear in company’s third fatality this year

    11:19 AM ET · SU

    • A Suncor Energy (SU -0.2%) employee was killed in a bear attack at its main oil sands operation near Fort McMurray in Alberta.
    • Alberta’s oil sands operations sit in prime bear and wildlife territory, although this area is defined by open pit mines rather than forest.
    • The death was SU’s third employee fatality this year, the first two in work-related incidents.


  87. Freddie joins Fannie in warning on future profits

    11:08 AM ET · FMCC


  88. Diesel bad?

    Ever consider who is puting out the bad and why? Why is diesel really more expensive? To discourage use as it is a sure way to cut oil consumption and the profits. Even easier to refine with less loses. Gas especially mixed with corn makes bad mileage.


  89. The Street still loves a good chainsaw; Barclays soars

    10:44 AM ET · BCS

    • Plans to gut its investment bank (7K job cuts), park £400B of assets in a “bad bank”, and cut another 12K positions from the rest of the company light a fire under Barclays (BCS +7.8%). The lender’s current workforce is 139.6K strong, and the 19K in cuts announced today stands against a plan of just 12K expected earlier this year.
    • Barclays’ reshaped investment bank will concentrate on the core markets of the U.S. and the U.K., and the top 1K clients who generated more than 75% of revenues last year. The investment bank will now account for 30% or less of risk-weighted assets, down from 50% now.
    • Talking a different line than JPMorgan’s (JPM +0.4%) Jamie Dimon, Barclays boss Antony Jenkins says the evaporation of trading revenue is indeed secular, not cyclical.
    • Previously: Cyclical or secular? JPMorgan warns again on trading business
    • Previously: Barclays plans to axe 19,000 jobs


  90. BMW ate an Apple and made a car.  The BMW just looks better.


  91. Ford China reports strong sales growth in April

    10:23 AM ET · F

    • Ford China (F) reports it sold 96,829 vehicles in April, a 29% rise from last year’s level.
    • Changan Ford Automobile +29% to 68,119 vehicles.
    • Jiangling Motors +23% to 25,549 vehicles.
    • By model, the Mondeo was a star performer with sales up 415% to 10,476.


  92. No clear lift from McDonald’s coffee promotion

    10:19 AM ET · MCD

    • A flat April comp number by McDonald’s (MCD -0.2%) in the U.S. is drawing the attention of retail analysts who were looking for a bit more.
    • The company ran a free coffee promotion during the month aimed at stealing the thunder away from Taco Bell’s breakfast launch.
    • Though a margin pinch was anticipated as a result of the promotion, increased traffic was expected to boost supplemental breakfast sales.


  93. More on BioCryst Q1 results

    10:17 AM ET · BCRX

    • Shares of BioCryst Phamaceuticals (BCRX -8.9%) are down in average volume in early trading after the company posted its quarterly results before the open.
    • Total revenues: $3.6M (flat); operating loss: ($7.4M) (-39.6%); loss/share: ($0.17) (-88.9%); cash burn: ($5M) (+43.8%); cash & equiv: $34.1M (-16%).
    • FY guidance: cash burn: $35M – 43M; operating expenses: $48M – 59M.
    • PDUFA date for IV peramivir is December 23, 2014.


  94. Raw milk prices hurt Dean Foods

    10:12 AM ET · DF

    • Dean Foods (DF -4.8%) trades weak after missing profit estimates with its Q1 report and updating guidance.
    • Higher raw milk prices cut into the company’s profitability during the period.


  95. 30-year fixed mortgage hits 2014 low, Freddie Mac says

    10:11 AM ET · XHB

    • The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops to 4.21%, the lowest rate since November and down from 4.29% a week ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly report.
    • The average rate for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 3.32% from 3.38% in the prior week.
    • A year ago, the respective 30- and 15-year rates were 3.42% and 2.61%.
    • “Mortgage rates continued moving down following the decline in 10-year Treasury yields after a dismal report on real GDP growth in the first quarter,” according to Freddie chief economist Frank Nothaft.
    • ETFs: XHB, ITB, PKB


  96. Yelp gets a lift from Morgan Stanley upgrade

    09:50 AM ET · YELP

    • Morgan Stanley has upgraded Yelp (YELP +3%) to Overweight, and set a $69 PT. The firm is a fan of Yelp’s “competitive positioning, consistent execution, and predictable subscription-based revenue stream which offers investors a high degree of visibility.”
    • Shares are still down 47% from a 52-week high of $101.75, and 7% from where they traded going into last week’s Q1 report. At the same time, they remain up 103% from a 52-week low of $26.75, and over 3.5x from a $15 2012 IPO price.
    • MS has also upgraded Twitter this morning.


  97. Euro slides as Draghi suggests June easing

    09:37 AM ET · FXE

    • The euro slides from its highest level in two years after ECB President Draghi – speaking at the post-policy meeting press conference – says board members are comfortable taking additional policy action in June if necessary.
    • Nearly touching $1.40 to the dollar following the ECB standing pat at this month’s meeting earlier today, the euro has tumbled back to $1.3890.
    • ETFs: FXE, EUO, ERO, DRR, EUFX, ULE, URR


  98. Analysis: New coffee player a giant headache for Nestle

    09:30 AM ET · NSRGY

    • Nestle (NSRGY, NSRGF) faces an even larger challenge in the coffee business with Mondelez International (MDLZ) jumping in with D.E. Master Blenders to form a new formidable rival to the Swiss giant.
    • The company was already struggling with decelerating sales growth and copycat sellers in Europe.
    • Analysts call the emergence of Jacobs Douwe Egberts a “tectonic” shift in the coffee business. At first glance it looks like Nestle might be sitting on the fault line.


  99. Twitter +3% on Morgan Stanley upgrade

    09:26 AM ET · TWTR

    • Morgan Stanley is going contrarian on Twitter (TWTR), upgrading shares to Equal Weight a day after they temporarily cracked $30 in the wake of a lockup expiration and a disappointing Q1 report.
    • Citing tough online ad competition, MS had downgraded Twitter to Underweight on Jan. 6, when shares were at $69.


  100. SunEdison -8.7% on Q1 miss, margin pressure; solar pipeline grows

    09:18 AM ET · SUNE

    • SunEdison (SUNE) recognized revenue on 76MW of solar system sales, below guidance of 85MW-105MW. But it also retained 74MW on its balance sheet, above guidance of 50MW-60MW. The company expects to recognize revenue on 60MW-80MW of systems in Q2, and to retain 100MW-120MW on its balance sheet.
    • For the whole of 2014, SunEdison still expects to complete 900MW-1150MW of systems (+90% at the midpoint). But it now expects to recognize revenue on 640MW-580MW (down from 500MW-650MW), and to retain 440MW-570MW on its balance sheet (up from 400MW-500MW).
    • In spite of Q1 pricing weakness, 2014 average project pricing is now expected to be in a range of $2.40-$2.75 vs. a prior $2.25-$2.75.
    • Solar energy revenue rose 87% Y/Y in Q1 to $371.5M. The chip wafer division (still set for an IPO) remains weak, with sales falling 11% Y/Y to $206.1M. SunEdison’s gross margin fell to 3.8% from 4.9% in Q4 and 9.7% a year ago.
    • The company’s solar project pipeline rose by 173MW Q/Q to 3.6GW. Backlog fell by 73MW to 1GW. 463MW of the pipeline is under construction, down from 503MW at the end of Q4.
    • Q1 results, PR


  101. 3 out of 4 confirmed. 


  102. Windstream -6.3%; higher costs/spending pressure EPS

    08:36 AM ET · WIN

    • Windstream’s (WIN) adjusted free cash flow rose 27% Y/Y in Q1 to $314M, thanks to lower fiber-to-the-tower investments and cash interest payments. But a 6% increase in SG&A spend to $252.2M, and a 1% increase in cost of services to $644.6M (compares with a 2% revenue drop), led net income to fall to $16M from $52.3M, and EPS to miss estimates.
    • Like other wireline carriers, local loop disconnections continue to pressure Windstream’s top line. Voice lines declined by 19.1K in Q1 to 1.703M, and business customer locations fell by 7.7K to 598K.
    • High-speed internet subs fell by 0.5K to 1.17M, carrier special access circuits by 6.7K to 93.4K, and digital TV subs by 3.4K to 398.9K.
    • Business service revenue was flat Y/Y at $748M, with higher data service revenue offsetting voice losses. Carrier revenue fell 3% to $162M, consumer revenue 4% to $313M, and wholesale revenue 7% to $142M.
    • Windstream is reiterating guidance for -2.5% to +1% 2014 revenue growth, as well as for full-year capex of $800M-$850M and adjusted free cash flow of $775M-$885M. The company’s 2014 dividend payout ratio is expected to be within a steep range of 68%-78%.
    • Q1 results, PR


  103. Three breakfast reads

    08:20 AM ET


  104. Shadow /diesel   I have used diesel during the last 10 years and my experience is that it last forever, you get tired of the car and it still have engine for another 100K miles.  cost of maintenance is lower also and is able to accept  almost anything  (diesel from mineral oil,  palm oil).

    The price difference is because you get a higher mileage ( 20%),


  105. SEC ends probe of former Chesapeake CEO McClendon

    08:15 AM ET · CHK

    • The SEC has ended an investigation of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and former CEO Aubrey McClendon and does not intend to recommend enforcement action, according to the company’s latest 10-Q filing.
    • The two-year probe concerned a perk that allowed McClendon to invest in oil and gas wells CHK drilled; McClendon pledged his stakes in the wells as collateral to borrow more than $1B, much of it from financial firms that also invested in CHK.
    • McClendon is now running American Energy Partners, a new private company that has hired CHK to drill wells in Ohio.


  106. Rio Tinto hints at possible end to austerity

    07:45 AM ET · RIO

    • Rio Tinto (RIO) CEO Sam Walsh indicates the mining company might soon be ready to call an end to austerity, with management planning to weigh future growth options in 2015 after two years of aggressive spending cuts.
    • Walsh says his team will prepare new investment proposals to be put to the board next year, a hint that the company might be preparing to change direction.
    • Walsh sees significant growth options for Rio’s copper business, including the Resolution project in Arizona, the La Granja project in Peru, and plans for a bauxite operation in Australia’s Queensland, and remains eager to proceed with the underground development of Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.


  107. China scrapping price controls on low-cost pharmaceuticals

    07:35 AM ET · SNY

    • China intends to end price limits on low-cost drugs after the controls caused quality problems and shortages.
    • China’s economic planning body, the National Development & Reform Commission, will lift price caps on 280 drugs provided by Western companies and 250 Chinese patent medicines.
    • Sanofi (SNY) and Pfizer (PFE) said it’s too early to ascertain the impact of the new policy. Other companies that could be affected include GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).
    • ETFs: IYH, IBB, XLV, XBI, VHT, BIB, PJP, BBH, FBT, PBE, XPH, CURE, FXH, IHE, RXL, IRY, IXJ, PPH, BIS, FHLC, PSCH, RYH, PTH, DRGS, RXD


  108. bouncing off of RUT 1100. Would like to see it fall.


  109. Phil – Your background color changed at 2:18.  I like the old light blue color, easier to read.


  110. I just read a saying that General Motors is having almost  90% of the credits  rated as subprime, so risk in case of economic problems could sent the company in a "deja vu" process.


  111. I agree with Grant about the color…


  112. News is different color from Phil per Burrben request.


  113. grant/advill – it's a color for news only … several members this morning requested a way to differentiate Phil's live posts from his news posts.


  114. Phils color hasn't changed – just the 'news'


  115. Phil – I'm impressed, and appreciative, with the immediate customer service response to the News change.


  116. Phil

    i think the color is fine.  The NEWS heading tells you it's news.  Problem solved-back to the markets!


  117. advil

    I bought a diesel truck in 1994. 20 years after the catalictic converter and no polution controls the crankcase breather is a tube running out under the engine, 200K and doesn't use a drop of oil, 20 mpg in town in a 7,000 lb truck. Now the oil giants are worried and they control the money and everything else. They have even cut natural gas production that they own. Black gold, Texas T!


  118. News- color is fine- a nice improvement. I find the Seeking Alpha bullet point format helpful vs. the Bloomberg set up. Harder to scan for subjects of interest.. No, I don't read it all- I flunked Evelyn Woods in high school. 


  119. I like the new News feature. Good improvement.


  120. News Heading and Color:  Great idea and incredible web site reaction.  Greg is worth his weight in Au.


  121. Holding all 30 DOW stocks for good NEWS at 6 but I think the RUT will win the tug boat war. It is a numbers game 2,000 little guys can take down 30 big guys because the bigger they are the harder they fall.


  122. Now if Greg could only make the PSW Search useable, we wouldnt have to keep on asking so many repeat questions.  Hint Hint Phil….  :)   Oh, and spell check (or stop capturing my right click in the comment box, so I could let google autocorrect for me)

    PS: Tks for taking care of the news issue.


  123. wow – /TF is a bronco. Takin my $500 and goin home.


  124. MCP – this smack down is overdone IMHO. It's not like they were priced high beforehand. ok place to sell some puts, and with low vix, perhaps better for buying some long-dated calls..or just the stock.  Starting with selling a couple June $5 puts, and plan to roll out when down to 30-ish days after burning off some premium.


  125. Wombat

     Ealier the 109.5 reversal got exposed and now I have support at 108.68 not looking god as the selling has not slowed for hours.


  126. DOW is playing very hard to hold that$165 line. Need to give all those little tug boats(RUT RUT) a little more gas.


  127. wombat – /tf Yep, I took my $500 too.


  128. 2000 digging a big RUT for the 30 to fall into! Pour on the diesel tug boats.


  129. Stick save engaged for the Nas?


  130. NAK/Jersey – It's a big legal mess at the moment.  I'd rather wait and see.  It either gets better or it gets cheaper. 

    TWTR/Burr – Those are very nice too.  

    Background/Den – Not my color, should be just the news.  We'll try to find a softer aqua.  

    News/Bukeye – Well, it was a very good suggestion that was easy to fix as we have certain colors assigned to certain people and, for the purpose of the news items, I Email my articles from my IPad, so it was easy to reassign them from my name to a new moderator called "News".   Now it just needs a little tweeking.  

    Nice dip by the way – back to 1,090 on /TF but bouncy there.  1,865 holding so far on /ES – different day, same levels…

    Diesel/Shadow – My old girlfriend's dad had a Volvo diesel with over 200K – he was very proud of it.  Had to be 15 years old and never gave him any trouble.  

    Formats/Pstas – I email those from my IPad if I'm in bed or having a bite in the kitchen.  It's actually faster than the cutting and pasting for me, so I like it but I don't control the format, other than deleting most of the pictures from Bloomberg, who have gone picture crazy in their articles.  

    Searches/Burr – That one, apparently, is a big job.  It's on the list.   My comments do autocorrect while I type but, unfortunately, my posts do not.  

    TF/Wombat – Very wise.  

    MCP/Scott – Just another symptom of the real global economy.  People aren't even buying cool magnets and stuff.  AGU et al as well, a bit too low but going lower.  CLF back to $17.25 – many 2nd chances out there. 


  131. TSLA making a classic "black swan" pattern


  132. Phil/TSLA – Dammit…I had it as a spitting cobra.  I need to do more homework.


  133. Phil

    20 years 1 diesel engine failure, fuel lift pump $69 part made in China, hint, Cummins.


  134. "Black Swan Pattern" and "triangle squeezy thing".

    Phil, I'm thinking you must be a closet technician. ;-)  

    Actually, that does look like a classic black swan pattern.


  135. I was thinking along the lines of a Tricera-top!


  136. From Doug Kass:

    Tesla Takes Shareholders for a Ride

    May 8, 2014 | 2:15 PM EDT

    Stock quotes in this article:

    Tesla's management received a multibillion-dollar transfer of wealth from the common shareholders.

    Yesterday as we all know, Tesla Motors (TSLA) released its first-quarter 2014 earnings report, and, based on my analysis, there was less than meets the eye.

    But even more egregious (by a factor of let's say 400x!) was a line item in the Tesla's 2013 annual report regarding the company's issuance of stock options.

    We all recall several months ago that my friend/buddy/pal David Winters began a public quarrel with Coca-Cola's (KO) management.

    David felt that there was an excessive transfer of wealth to management via a too-generous option program.

    Based on my analysis below, I suspect that Tesla's Elon Musk was not listening carefully to either David Winters or Warren Buffett.

    Buried deep within Tesla's 2013 Form 10-K, it was revealed that the difference between the value of the options issued and the market price (intrinsic value of the options) rose from $317 million to over $2.8 billion last year.

    In other words, Tesla's management has received a multibillion-dollar transfer of wealth from the common shareholders.

    The difference of nearly $2.5 billion (the benefit accrued by virtue of the price appreciation in Tesla's shares last year) obviously dwarfs Tesla's balance sheet and has entirely been ignored by the analyst community.

    I reshorted Tesla on the rally at midday.

    Position: Short TSLA


  137. Phil / Swan -

    It's moments like that drawing that keep me coming back here whether I'm in or out of the market. That TSLA diagram was @#$%ing fantastic!


  138. TSLA/Buck – It is like a spitting cobra, but with feathers.  Gotta know your wildlife to be a TA expert!  wink

    In case there as still people out there who don't trade Futures, DXD is our primary hedge in the STP with the July $28 call, now .60 with DXD at $26.68 with the Dow at 16,544, not too far off the ATH.  DXD is a 2x Ultra so a 5% pullback on the Dow is a 10% pop on DXD to $29.35 or $1.35+ on the July calls.  In other words, a 5% drop on the Dow gives you a 100% gain on DXD.

    Generally, for a hedge, we want to mitigate 1/2 of the downside damage.  So, if you have a $100,000 portfolio that will lose $10,000 on a 10% drop in the Dow, you would want to protect against half of that ($5K) with a $2,500 position on DXD (during the time in which you are worried, of course).  The nice thing about DXD is that, if the Dow drops 10%, DXD goes to $32 and your .60 calls are $2.65 in the money and you get back 441% – so the worse the Dow does, the more it protects you.

    So, figure you invest $2,400 in 40 DXD July $28s and now you have bought 3 months of protection at a cost of 2.4% of your portfolio.  If we were less sure the Dow was going to drop, we'd cut that cost in half by going with a bull call spread instead (the $32 calls can be sold for .25), but we're pretty sure these will pay off and also think the Dow will come back so the calls are more flexible. 

    What we can also do, is sell a bullish offset to help pay for the cost of the calls.  The trick to a bullish offset is to pick something you can sell puts against that you REALLY would want to own if the Dow drops 20%.  

    • CLF is one we like at $17.34.  We assume if the Dow stays strong (and our DXDs fail) that CLF will do better too and that means we can sell 10 2016 $13 puts for $2.20 ($2,200) to pay for almost all of the hedge.  Worst case is we end up owning 1,000 shares of DXD for $13.20, which would cost $6,500 in margin but the net margin on the puts is only $1,300 for now.  
    • FCX is also a long we like and also one that will do well if the Dow is strong (and also a nice inflation hedge).  The 2016 $28 puts can be sold for $2.66 with the stock at $33.78 – another $5.78 off is almost a 20% discount as your worst case.  
    • TWTR we just looked at above, you can sell just 3 or the 2016 $30 puts for $7.50 and your worst case is owning $9,000 worth of TWTR in exchange for $2,250 in your pocket today.  

    Closet Technician/Albo – Just don't tell Ted Cruz!  

    TSLA/Rustle – Musk is just a con man at heart.  

    Thanks Yo. 


  139. Phil At heart? Musk is a con man!


  140. Rustle – Hey it's gonna cost a lot to get to Mars. I can't wait. ;-)


  141. Not a very constructive day for the bulls.  Will be an interesting finish to the week.  


  142. LOL

    Phil, not that there's anything wrong with that.


  143. Of course not!  


  144. Phil, NLY finished at 11.51.  I hope you're not loosing your touch…

    BTW, when does the black swan become a spitting swan?


  145. That episode has my X daughter-in-law Paula Marshall playing the reporter. My son wasn't smart enough to hang on to her & she is married to Danny Nouchi now ( I think.) Been years since I've seen this & brings back memory's.


  146. Hi,

    I am trying to setup a new options account (Individual) with TOS. Do members get any special fee rate on options trading?

    What is the general feel on TOS vs IB?

    Thanks!


  147. Pat / IB

    I am  satisfied with IB the access to information is usually convenient with exception of  /TF  which is included in a commodities package that charges $85 / month….have to find the way to have it online.

    Transactions are mostly (futures) in the 2.40 in and 2.40 out.


  148. That doesn't look like the best use of money to me:

    http://gizmodo.com/report-apple-is-reportedly-getting-ready-to-buy-beats-1573710921

    Apple is closing in on its largest ever acquisition with the planned $3.2bn purchase of Beats Electronics, the headphone maker and music streaming operator founded by Jimmy Iovine and the hip-hop star Dr Dre.

    The deal could be announced as early as next week, people familiar with the negotiations said, but they cautioned that some details had yet to be agreed and talks could still fall apart, write Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles and Tim Bradshaw in San Francisco.

    Headphones and music streaming service! What about iTunes….


  149. Phil – How did I know you'd pick up on that ?  It's very difficult to get anything by you !


  150. pat-swap – I don't think we have a PSW rate anymore at TOS, but if you just mention the Tastytrade Rate it's a flat $1.50/contract – never pay a per ticket fee – it makes complex spreads too expensive – unless you're doing primarily cheap calendars in large lots – then you might want IBs $0.70c/contract rate.  You can get $1.25 or cheaper from TOS if you negotiate it up front before you transfer money in (and promise to do large lot deals, but they won't compete with IB on rate (natch, IBs is low).  I've been doing a lot more futures and futures options (lean hogs anyone?) so I wouldn't want to pay for a commodities feed.



  151. So many indicators…

    http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2014/05/bearish-dollar-weighted-volume-rises-while-prices-fall.html

    WV is variation of On-Balance Volume (OBV), which was developed by the late Joe Granville. DWV is calculated by multiplying the daily volume of each stock in a given market index by the closing price, then adding (or subtracting, if the stock closes down) the result to the cumulative total of DWV for the index. The resulting indicator is an expression of the trend of money rather than just volume. DWV is a short-term indicator. 

    We look for positive/negative divergences and for instances where volume doesn't confirm price, meaning that volume either leads or lags price. When this happens, look for a change in the short-term price trend.

    Right now we have reverse divergences appearing on many of our index charts. On all of these charts we compare the flat price tops to the DWV higher tops. This represents an internal blowoff as price did not respond to the higher volume pumped in at the successive price tops, basically price could not keep pace. With so many divergences across the board, the expectation should be lower prices in the short term.


  152. Russell still clearly the sick index!


  153. And speaking of the Russell:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/8/big-percentages-smaller-dollars.html

    Below is a table showing the market cap for several major indices.  The Russell 1000 index tracks large cap stocks similar to the S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 index is focused on smaller firms.  The Nasdaq Composite is also weighted to smaller firms, while the Nasdaq Internet Index is diverse in terms of the size of companies but weighted heavily towards the type of firm that has gotten smoked in the recent pain trading for momentum stocks.

    As shown below, the 1,000 stocks in the Russell 1,000 make up about $20 trillion in market cap, while the 2,000 stocks in the Russell 2,000 make up just $2 trillion in market cap.  From their peaks, the Russell 1,000 has lost $265 billion in market cap, while the Russell 2,000 has lost $155 billion in market cap.  While these drops in market cap are pretty similar, in percentage terms, they're very different.  The Russell 1,000's drop in market cap is just 1.3%, while the Russell 2,000's drop in market cap is 7.4%.  

    Basically, small caps are getting beaten down! There is clearly some rotation going on especially into big caps dividend payers it seems.


  154. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 11:09:47 PM

    Nickel ore is transported via a conveyor belt as it is unloaded at Queensland Nickel Pty’s port facility in Townsville, Queensland. Nickel traded at $20,098 a metric ton in London, the highest level since February 2012. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

    Japanese shares rose a second day,
    paring a weekly decline, as investors weighed earnings reports
    from the country’s biggest companies and Canon Inc. announced a
    share buyback. Nickel extended gains from a two-year high amid
    supply concerns and the Philippines peso jumped.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jmmhmv
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  155. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 10:18:13 PM


    May 9 (Bloomberg) — William Hess, a director at PRC Macro Advisors, talks about China’s economy and government policies.
    China’s consumer inflation decelerated to the slowest pace since October 2012 and the decline in factory-gate prices persisted, National Bureau of Statistics data released today in Beijing showed. Hess speaks from Singapore with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Consumer inflation in China moderated
    to an 18-month low and the decline in factory-gate prices
    persisted, giving the government more scope to loosen policies
    if a growth slowdown deepens.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ssDwVG
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  156. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 9:19:32 PM


    Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), leaves a news conference at the central bank’s headquarters in Tokyo. Kuroda doubled monthly bond purchases in April last year to end deflation, driving an 8.8 percent drop in the yen’s nominal value and helping bolster inflation to the highest since 2008 in December. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    The Bank of Japan’s failure to achieve
    its inflation target will see the yen rebound to the highest
    since 2012, reversing the results of its unprecedented stimulus,
    according to Tokai Tokyo Securities Co.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uI4nPt
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  157. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 8:38:47 PM

    Declining demand for ship fuel in
    Singapore, the merchant fleet’s biggest refueling hub, is
    signaling weakening prospects for a rebound in Chinese growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jGey2m
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  158. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 10:36:09 PM

    Outside the Galaxy Macau casino resort in China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Luck is running out for the high rollers of Hong Kong’s stock market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1l2HPnE
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  159. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 8:30:19 AM

    Macau is facing a capital-flight crackdown amid Chinese government concerns that tens of billions of yuan in illicit funds are being funneled out of the mainland and into casinos in contravention of national currency controls, the South China Morning Post reported today, citing unidentified gaming and security sources. Photographer: Lam Yik Fei/Bloomberg

    Wynn Macau Ltd. (1928) fell the most in more
    than two years in Hong Kong trading, leading declines among
    operators of China’s only legal casinos, amid concern that a
    crackdown on illegal money transfers will pare demand.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1orY52b
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  160. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 8:00:00 PM


    Newly USDA certified and processed organic beef grills on the BBQ at the Colorado River Ranch past Dotsero, Colorado, U.S. (AP Photo/Vail Daily, Dominique Taylor)

    Consumers in the U.S. will probably pay the most ever for meat this grilling season as costs for pork and beef surge, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1gdxtgj
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  161. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 10:58:56 PM


    April 10 (Bloomberg) — Andrew Forrest, chairman of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest iron ore producer, talks about China’s steel industry and growth outlook, and Fortescue’s business outlook.
    He speaks with Stephen Engle on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up” from the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia in China’s Hainan province. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Iron ore retreated to the lowest level
    since 2012, heading for a fourth weekly loss and nearing $100 a
    ton, as increased seaborne supplies of the steel-making raw
    material boosted a global glut.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qk1LrB
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  162. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 7:00:00 PM

    The bitter wrangling over rights to
    mine a West African mountain range may wind up keeping the
    world’s biggest untapped deposit of iron ore in the ground into
    the next decade.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jmkmhZ
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  163. Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1m2jr6K

    Robots: Which Human Jobs Are Most at Risk?
    May 8 (Bloomberg) — Rethink Robotics Chairman and CEO Rodney Brooks and New York University Marketing Professor Scott Galloway discuss the future of robots in our lives on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  164. Sent from Bloomberg for iPad

    Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1hAU86L

    Draghi’s Own Words on Inflation, Euro, ECB Policy
    May 9 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks about inflation, risks to European growth, the euro and monetary policy.
    He spoke yesterday in Brussels at his monthly news conference. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg/European Central Bank)

    Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  165. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 12:24:45 PM


    May 9 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks about inflation, risks to European growth, the euro and monetary policy.
    He spoke yesterday in Brussels at his monthly news conference. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg/European Central Bank)

    Mario Draghi has primed investors for action next month.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oacQt7
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  166. From Bloomberg, May 9, 2014, 3:32:28 AM

    European stocks dropped from their
    highest level in more than six years as companies from
    Telefonica SA to Belgacom SA (BELG) posted earnings that missed
    earnings estimates. U.S. index futures and Asian shares were
    little changed.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/RtHzUs
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  167. From Bloomberg, May 9, 2014, 5:14:19 AM

    Manufacturing rose 1.4 percent instead of 1.3 percent. That’s the biggest increase since 2010 and the largest for a calendar quarter since 1999. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    U.K. manufacturing production expanded
    more than economists forecast in March, adding to evidence that
    the economic recovery is gathering strength.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/SH1lNh
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  168. From Bloomberg, May 9, 2014, 12:00:04 AM


    A natural gas drilling rig stands on a Chesapeake Energy Corp. drill site in Bradford County, Pennsylvania, U.S. The rise in prices that accompanied stronger winter demand helped Chesapeake Energy Corp., a gas producer, boost profit to $425 million from $58 million a year ago. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    Wall Street’s idea of investing in
    climate change means investors are piling into natural gas, the
    least polluting fossil fuel.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/RwJdUZ
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  169. From Bloomberg, May 8, 2014, 4:50:34 PM

    How many journalists would have traded their free tablets for just a ride in this? Photographer: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Fiat Chrysler Automobile gave its latest Five Year Plan journalists and investors on Monday in a presentation that, according to the tweets of exhausted attendees, lasted more than 11 hours. Having attended the 2009 version of Chrysler’s quintennial Powerpoint deathmarch, emerging more dazed by the ordeal than enlightened, I was a little surprised to see another Ironman Marathon rolled out for analysts.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/Qjnb7a
    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  170. Phil. For tracking the Nasdaq Composite what ETF do you find that most closely mimics its movement?


  171. Is that a trick question?  QQQ.

    Good morning, by the way. 

    $11.51/Sibe – What???  Now I'm going to have to rethink all my targets….  surprise  And swans don't spit, they squawk.  Seriously, how can you expect to have a future in TA if you don't know your animal memes?  

    Paula/Pirate – That is way cool.  

    TOS/Pat – We used to have a special rep before TDA bought them, now I don't think we do anymore.  

    Speaking of TDA – They want me to come to Canada next month to do a TV show and a seminar down there.  I think it's for their in-house people (the seminar).  I'll let you know when I get more details.  

    Package/Advill – TOS doesn't charge for any of that. 

    Beats/StJ – This is why I'm gung-ho to work with start-ups.  Beats is about 3 years old and already they are getting $3Bn for what is essentially a fashion accessory.  

    RUT/StJ – Scary.  Futures down about a quarter point, by they way.  

    Oil was fun this morning, went over $101 and now back to $100.50.

    Dollar rising sharply, 79.72 and /NKD just below 14,200.  If the Dollar stays up and our markets don't tank (Dow currently 16,485 on /YM and /ES 1,868, /NQ 3,525 & /TF 1,092), then /NKD is a good long over the 14,200 line. 


  172. Stockcharts/StJ – So it's a much more complicated way of saying what I've been saying for months – volume doesn't indicate good support at these prices. 

    Big Chart – Russell is the tug boat below the 200 dma.  If 50 dmas start failing (Nas already did) then they are very likely to all test the 200 dma before this is over – down about 5% for the indexes, which is pretty much what we've been expecting all along.  


  173. Phil No trick question. Just looking for confirmation. There are so many ETF's being offered and I was curious whether anyone was offering a similar competing product that also had some daily volume that allowed liquidity in trading in and out.


  174. You're not going to do better for tracking and liquidity than QQQ, DIA, SPY and IWM, they are well-established and traded as the de-facto standards. 


  175. TNA offers 3x the movement then IWM and QQQ as the NAS and RUThave been in sync of late. What if any are the best multiplier options for the SPY and DIA?


  176. SCO?   With the dollar up this morning, I would expect the price of oil to be dropping, but SCO down .30 plus or so in per market activity.  Ukraine separists vote this weekend causing the drop?