Semiconductor HOLDRS Options Heat Up in Late Trading
by Option Review - March 24th, 2010 4:30 pm
Today’s tickers: SMH, X, WMT, SYMC, MOS, SKS, GE, GENZ, DVN & ADBE
SMH – Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust – Massive bearish positioning on the Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust, which holds shares of common stock issued by 20 different companies engaged in the semiconductor business, indicates shares of the underlying stock may be set to tumble lower ahead of expiration day next month. Shares of the SMH are down 2.40% to $27.92 with thirty minutes remaining in the trading session. It appears one investor purchased 50,000 put options at the April $27 strike for an average premium of $0.41 per contract. Such a large stake in bearish put options suggests the purchaser is perhaps paying for the privilege of securing downside protection on a long underlying stock position. If this is the case, the put contracts yield protection should shares of the SMH trade beneath the effective breakeven price of $26.59 ahead of expiration. Of course, it is also possible the trader does not currently own shares of the SMH. In this scenario the investor makes money if shares fall another 4.75% below the current price to breach the breakeven point on the puts at $26.59. The sudden flurry of options activity on the Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility 7.8% to 26.35%. SMH-investors exchanged more than 131,900 contracts this afternoon, which represents nearly 72% of total existing open interest of 183,473 contracts.
X – United States Steel Corp. – Shares of iron and steel producer, United States Steel Corp., rallied 0.65% during afternoon trading to $63.75. Bullish traders anticipating continued share price appreciation for U.S. Steel purchased out-of-the-money call options in the October contract. Nearly 5,600 calls were coveted at the October $75 strike for an average premium of $4.68 apiece. Investors holding these call contracts stand ready to accrue profits if shares of the underlying stock surge 25% to surpass the effective breakeven share price of $79.68 ahead of expiration day in October. We note that U.S. Steel’s share price last traded above $80.00 during the final days of September 2008.
WMT – Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – The largest retailer on the planet experienced a slight pullback in the value of its shares this afternoon perhaps on news the firm may sell $2 billion of 5- and 30-year senior notes. Shares edged 0.40% lower during the session stand at $55.68. Options traders expecting lower volatility…
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DiggThe Calm Before the Storm – Big Pharma Is Gonna Have Big Problems and Pfizer is the BIGGEST
by ilene - March 24th, 2010 2:01 pm
Second coming of the calm before the storm; fear not, there's time to find shelter. - Ilene
The Calm Before the Storm – Big Pharma Is Gonna Have Big Problems and Pfizer is the BIGGEST
Courtesy of Pharmboy, member of Phil's Stock World
This is a brief article of where the pharmaceutical industry has been, and where it could be headed in the near future. In contrast to past articles where I focused on the pipelines of GSK, LLY, MRK, BMY and ‘biotechs’ GENZ, GILD, and others, this is a summary of the industry. The overall market continues its grind up and I am gun-shy of its continued direction, but with the passage of the health care bill, biotechs that serve niche markets will be well positioned to see a rise both in stock price and potential M&A activity. In addition, as noted on Friday, March 19th on the laggers/leaders of the past month or so, Telecom and Healthcare were at the bottom of the pile. For the review of Big Pharma and some biotech picks at the end, generic companies are excluded from most data (Merck KGaA, Mylan, Teva and Watson).
From 2002 to 2009, the top pharmaceutical companies by sales had growth rates greater than 12% (compounded annually). Unfortunately, this growth is not sustainable and should move towards flat to nominal growth by 2014. The growth decline will challenge these companies to seek more profitable routes, including licensing and acquisitions. Picking the right companies based upon the science is at the forefront of good investing. Not they will all succeed because the science is sound, but understanding the molecule, target, and the disease helps guide smart decisions. Good management helps as well!
Let's start with a summary of potential acquirers. Table 1 is a list of the 15 largest pharmaceutical and biotech companies ranked by healthcare revenue. Some companies (e.g., Bayer and Johnson) have additional revenue which is not included the sales data.
Table 1. Top 13 Pharma Companies in Sales (2009)
|
Rank |
Company |
Sales ($M) |
Based/Headquartered in |
|
1 |
Pfizer |
50,001 |
US |
|
2 |
Hoffmann–La Roche |
46,300* |
Switzerland |
|
3 |
Merck & Co. |
45,930** |
US |
|
4 |
Novartis |
…
Trash in Drugs Sends Genzyme Lower
by Option Review - November 13th, 2009 4:47 pm
Today’s tickers: GENZ, AGO, UUP, PALM & DIS
GENZ – Genzyme Corp. – - A hot topic in the last few minutes has seen shares of biotech company, Genzyme slide by 5% to $50.50 with the AP reporting that the FDA has found tiny particles of trash in Genzyme made drugs, which according to the article says “bits of steel, rubber and fiber in drug vials could cause serious adverse health effects for patients. Option wizards were quick to pounce on the opportunity to sell rapidly deteriorating call options in the December 50 and 55 strike prices. While this could be the work of frantic bulls trying to get out of the way of a potential sandstorm it’s more likely the case that trigger-happy bears have been awakened. Ahead of the news the December 50 call traded lightly during the morning at a 4.70 premium before slumping to 2.30 on volume measuring a couple of thousand contracts, while the 55 strike fell from a pre-breaking news premium of 1.85 all the way down to 70 cents. While the situation has stabilized, option implied volatility across the field is up around 25% at 42% today. That’s something for call-writers to pay heed to.
AGO – Assured Guaranty Ltd. – – Shares in the bond issurer are 14.8% higher at $20.77 and broke right through the 52-week high after Moody’s lowered its insurance financial strength rating on the company from Aa2 to Aa3. In a statement the company expressed its delight in having maintained a double-A rating in the current economic climate. It also noted that Moody’s number-crunching of its insured residential mortgage exposure was conducted under a pretty dire scenario and was based on “an extremely pessimistic view of the future performance of residential mortgage exposure.” The company boasted that even on this worst case scenario its $12.5 billion claims paying resources are more than sufficient to meet projected obligations. The options activity confirmed the bullish jump in Assured’s share price. Using the December contract investors established 11,000 bullish bought call options at the December 22.5 strike price indicating further bullish moves ahead. The 1.40 premium would require the share price to rise a further 15% to reach breakeven at expiration. Curiously the call buying frenzy caused options implied volatility to rise from 69% to 75% today. Options volume of almost 30,000 contracts is around nine times the usual on the…
Wild Weekly Wrap-Up – August in Retrospect
by Phil - August 29th, 2009 8:28 am
It has been a crazy few weeks!
I went back over our Long Shots list from August 9th, thinking all our picks must be doing great but really only C, with a 67% gain, is really outperforming. Long spreads on UYG and BHI are on target for nice gains but haven’t moved much. Looking at our original picks in Pharmboys Phavorites from the same week, GSK is on track and up nicely already, our AZN cover is up 45% and MRK flew up 19% already. On the riskier Biotech side, ARIA’s stock is up 16% and our spreads are all performing well, ONTY has been flat, OGXI is up 33% and the Jan $17.50s are up a rockin’ 63% with that "cautious" spread up a surprising 75% already.
SPPI had a wild ride (as we predicted with TSCM’s failed assassination attempt) and the buy/write is already up 24%, the Feb vertical is up 50% and the naked Jan put sale is up 27% and our Feb hedge play is right on track so all good there and a fine example of how following Cramer and his lackeys and and doing the opposite of what they say can be very profitable! Congrats to Pharmboy for a very fine set of picks, proving once again that there is room for research and fundamentals - not a single loser in the bunch in a choppy market! It was very timely as I had mentioned just that week in my interview with AOL Finance that XLV was my favorite sector and our IHI pick of 8/10 is up 28% on the naked Feb $45 put sale while the Feb $45 calls have already jumped 16%. It was a great call as IHI outperformed XLV and all our major indexes.
So our energy service pick (BHI) and overall financial pick (UYG) have not done much in 3 weeks and those were our leading sectors into my call to cash out our exposed long calls on Aug 13th, ahead of expirations. The Dow was at 9,400 on that day and now, a bit more than 2 weeks later, we’ve gained another 144 points but to listen to the MSM, you would think you are missing the rally of the century the past couple of weeks. This is one of the reasons I’ve gotten a bit more cynical about the rally – there is so much hype and so…
Which Way Wednesday – For Oil?
by Phil - June 17th, 2009 8:20 am
Boy this is fun!
I love it when a plan comes together and all that tedious waiting has finally paid off as our bull trap has sprung and we are enjoying the ride down with all of the "wheee" and none of the nasty gnawing off of legs in order to get our money out. While Jim Cramer decides to shamefully deflect the issue by CELEBRATING his call of a June housing bottom, his poor sheeple are getting hammered as wave after wave of sellsellsellers hit the wires.
It was, in fact, the BS housing data (sorry Jim but read past the headlines before you make a fool of yourself) that led us to get MORE bearish yesterday morning as it was reported RIGHT ON CNBC, that analyst Ivy Zelman said the following:
50 percent of sales in May were on spec. She says we’re seeing a lot of spec homes now because, “today’s consumer wants to touch and feel the house.” The positives are that cancellations are down, sales are better and there’s less negative pricing, although discounts are still prevalent. “The patient was without a pulse in the fourth quarter,” Zelman notes, “and now the patient’s in ICU.” So why all the spec now? Because builders are trying to jam all these homes into buyers’ pockets before the expiration of the $8000 first time home buyer tax credit. It turns into a pumpkin November 30th.
So 50% of the sales (which were up 17%) were not sales at all! That means that sales to ACTUAL people declined 33% in May. We shorted the Qs right out of the gate and made our target 30% for the day trade and we had the usual fun with our oil shorts but, otherwise, all our bearish bets were working and there was little to do. I called almost the exact finish for the day in my 2:58 comment to members where I said: "… since we need to sell off 5% and since NOT selling off more than 1.5% today would make it very unlikely we sell off 5% overall, then I think we need to finish lower than our lows so far. Of course, Mr Stick knows this too so they will likely be fighting like hell to make sure that doesn’t happen while Mr Fund who wants to move to cash may take advantage of…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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