Posts Tagged ‘Hedge Funds’

Monday Market Movement – Do We Ever Go Down?

breadth

We all go down for a piece of the moment
Watch another burn to the death to the core
And the roadshow thrills pack the freaks and the phonies
Sing: now is now, yeah! – Rob Zombie 

There is just no way to win betting against this market!  

Well, actually, there is one way and that's betting that each pop is nonsense and tends to have a subsequent pullback intra-day but, long-term, the cumulative effect of all that low-volume pumping has been a rousing success, to say the least.  

As you can see from Andy Thrasher's S&P chart, there has been some amazing underlying deterioration since the July 4th weekend with the Advance/Decline line falling back to trend and stocks above their 200-Day Moving Average dropping 15% in 3 weeks.  Stocks above the 200 DMA is a fantastic leading indicator for downside move – ignore it at your own risk. 

TNXPeople are panicking into bonds, dropping the 10-Year Yield 20%, from 3.1% to 2.45% this year but it doesn't matter because Central Banksters are pumping SO MUCH MONEY into the Global Markets that there's enough to buy all asset classes simultaneously – something that is unprecedented in Financial History – what could go wrong?

Well, one thing that could go wrong is you putting your money into Mutual Funds.  As it turns out, in an S&P study of actively managed Mutual Funds, only 2 (two) out of 2,862 actually beat the S&P over ANY of the fund's lifetimes (limited to 12 months or longer).  

That's even worse than the average performace of hedge funds, which only averaged a 0.59% annual loss when compared to just putting your money directly into the S&P.

 This dovetails with a conversation we were having this weekend in our Member Chat Room, where I identified 4 trade ideas for a $50,000 Portfolio that only used 1/4 of the buying power to generate $365,512 in projected profits over the next 15 years using CONSERVATIVE options strategies designed to MATCH the S&P, not beat it.…
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Monday Market Movement – Major Danger Ahead!

These are not good chart patterns: 

We haven't gone anywhere on the Dow, S&P or NYSE since early March and we've lost 6% on the Nasdaq and 8.3% on the Russell yet, to hear the mainstream media tell it – there's no better time to invest.  

Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels said: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."  Clearly that's the template being used today by the MSM and even our politicians these days.  

President Bush himself said: "See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda."  Unfortunately, no one told him he wasn't supposed to actually repeat what they told him in the strategy meeting to the general public – but we all know that's the way things work, don't we?  

SPY 5 MINUTEAs you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we got a very exciting pop into the close on Friday for no particular reason and now, for no particular reason the Futures have given back most of those gains.  But don't worry, into the open, while the volume is still low, it's sure to get jammed back up again – just in time for the Funds to dump their shares on the retail crowd.  

We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is rigged and play along.  This morning I posted to our Members that Silver Futures (/SI ) were a long at $19.50 and that Gasoline Futures (/RB) were a short at $3.  Already silver hit $19.65 for a $750 per contract gain and gasoline fell to $2.985 for a $630 per contract gain – and the Egg McMuffins are paid for!  

We KNOW it's rigged and we KNOW the moves were fake so, when they hit good resistance points, we knew it was very unlikely they'd get past them.  If they did get over the resistance, we'd take small, quick losses and be done with the trade.  Of course we went over the news and the data from around the World to
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Meanwhile, at the Hall of Unintended Consequences…

Meanwhile, at the Hall of Unintended Consequences…

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Can ultra-low rates combined with the hedge funds’ Need for Speed create a food price bubble?

Damn right they can and they probably will.  They did it with commodities like wheat in early 2008 even as the consumption-to-stock ratio actually warranted a decrease in prices.  This is now happening again as cotton hits a 15 year high, exploding corn prices drive the price of beef up to 25 year highs and the rest of the agricultural commodity complex takes off into the stratosphere.

When you link a financial derivatives market, which is technically infinite, to a market of actual hard goods (finite in supply), a price bubble becomes highly possible, even probable.  When you drop rates to nothing, leave them there and then add the sex appeal of a long-term uptrend for global food consumption, you are tying a goat to a post in the T Rex cage, virtually beckoning the beast to come and gorge himself.

Marshall Auerback quotes an email exchange with commodities trader and portfolio manager Mike Masters over at Naked Capitalism:

Speculation in commodities can be exemplified from the following illustration. Money can be “created” by fiat. Because there is already much more capital available in the world than hard commodities, and also because money can effectively be created in a nearly infinite way; speculators, without limits, and with determination, can increase the price of consumable commodities, like food stuffs or energy, much higher than traditional consumers and producers (hedgers) can react. When derivative markets are linked to real commodity markets, this nearly unlimited capital from the financial sector can cause financially driven excessive price volatility. This is because in the derivative markets, a nearly infinite amount of new commodity derivative contracts can be created to satisfy the demand of financial sector speculators armed with fresh capital. However, because there is only a FINITE amount of bona fide actual hedgers (producers and consumers of the actual commodity), any speculative demand that exceeds the real amount of commodities that can be hedged at that time must be sourced from other speculators. However, these speculators will only supply new contracts via price- i.e. a new speculative demand that exceeds hedger supply must be sourced from new speculative supply at ever higher prices.

To sum up, we’re talking about an untethering…
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Hugh Hendry interview on the BBC

Hugh Hendry interview on the BBC

Courtesy of Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

BBC HARDtalk interviewed hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, CIO & CEO of Eclectica Asset Management, this past Tuesday night. The videos are below.

 

 

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Hugh Hendry Admits: “I’m Losing Money This Month! It’s A Very Uncomfortable Process!”

Hugh Hendry Admits: "I’m Losing Money This Month! It’s A Very Uncomfortable Process!"

Courtesy of Courtney Comstock at The Business Insider 

Hugh HendryHugh Hendry admitted he’s down this month while talking to BBC Hard Talk on Tuesday.

The often unhinged hedge fund manager was subdued until his interviewer began asking him about regulation and risk-taking in the hedge fund industry.

Then he got pretty riled up and spilled that he’s losing money this month, and how much it hurts.

It all started when the interviewer brought up financial regaultion.

"The financial industry is the most regulated sector in the economy," Hendry says.

Then the interviewer suggested that hedge funds, like Hendry’s are less regulated and therefore riskier than banks.

To which Hendry replied, "The most effective form of regulation is that if you mess up, you fail. And that’s the regulation that I’m subject to."

(Watch how the interview proceeds. Our summaries of the interviewer’s questions are in italics.)

Isn’t that very risky? asks the interviewer.

"I do not take extreme risk. Do you think for one moment [rich familes that have saved their money for generations] would give me their money to take extreme risks with it?" (circa 2:10)

Yes, I do think they would. I think that’s the premise that the entire hedge fund industry is based on.

"Extreme risk means that there is a very high probability of losing all of that capital."

Well, that’s what has happened to many hedge funds recently.

(This is when Hendry starts getting upset. The suggestion of his clients’ money being at risk in his hedge fund.)

"I spend half of my time allaying their fears – being transparent, addressing their issues - Where could I lose money? How much could I lose?" (circa 2:54)

(Then we find out why he’s really upset.)

"I’m losing money this month – it’s a very uncomfortable process! My phone never stops!" (circa 2:58) 

Hendry quickly went from the best macro fund (up over 13% YTD as of August) to losing money.

Watch the interview.


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Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry

Hedge Funds On The Defensive As Hugh Hendry Sees 80% Reduction In Size Of Industry

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

It is no longer fun being a hedge fund manager – first, up until the recent POMO-based rally in stocks, HFs were down for the year, and what is far worse, they were underperforming the broader market – a death sentence for pretty much every hedge fund, as this is proof a fund can not extract alpha and thus has no reason to collect 2 and 20. While the recent ramp in the market is welcome by all bulls, the question remains just how leveraged into the latest beta rally hedge funds have been. If after the nearly 10% rise in the past 2 weeks any individual HFs are still underperforming the market, it is a near certain "lights out."

To everyone else: congratulations – you just bought yourself another three months of breathing room. Better hope the Fed makes good on its QE promises one day soon. In the meantime, Bloomberg Matthew Lynn and Ecclectica’s Hugh Hendry both confirm that in these days of instantaneous liquidity demands, and cheap strategy replicators in the form of ETFs which provide the same beta capture as hedge funds, at a fraction of the price, it is only going to get worse and worse for the once high flying community. In fact, Hugh Hendry goes as far as suggesting that 10 years from now 80% of all hedge funds will be gone. Our personal view is that the target will be reached in a far shorter time frame.

On one hand, Matthew Lynn shows the uphill climb that defenders of the hedge fund industry have to pass in recent days. "An industry that doesn’t know how to defend itself, and has forgotten how to justify its existence, is in crisis. Hedge funds are now in that position." Hilariously, Lynn shows that hedge funds uses that good old staple used by HFTs to defend their own piracy ways and means: providing liquidity.

On both sides of the Atlantic, hedge funds have been busy trying to hold their own against the tide of fresh regulations sweeping through capital markets.

The Washington-based Managed Funds Association, the U.S. hedge-fund industry’s biggest trade group, has been campaigning against proposed curbs on high-frequency trading. That would, it says, reduce liquidity


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The Big Boys Discover Options

The Big Boys Discover Options

By STEVEN M. SEARS at Barrons 

Other institutions follow Pimco in using puts and calls to battle stock-market risk. Global volatility leads to less reliance on modern portfolio theory.

IN THE RAREFIED WORLD OF endowments, pension funds and major asset- management companies, worries about risk are often quashed by modern portfolio theory.

The Nobel Prize-winning concept essentially contends that asset diversification alone is enough to reduce risk. Options, though designed for that very purpose, are historically viewed as an inelegant solution.

But the old biases could be fading, according to a study released last week by the Options Industry Council, an educational marketing group primarily funded by the options exchanges.

THE GYRATIONS in the global financial market seem to have upturned longstanding ideas in the investment community, including those about owning a variety of stocks or bonds to reduce investment risk. Even now, correlation is damaging many portfolios as different assets, including some stocks and bonds, increasingly trade like each other.

The OIC study suggests that the financial crisis has made endowments, pension funds and major asset managers more open to using options to reduce portfolio risk. This is a significant development. The common experience for derivatives salesmen traveling to Boston and other bastions of the money-management industry, is to be viewed by portfolio managers as people with two heads and one eye, trying to peddle exotic financial detritus.

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The Root of Economic Fragility and Political Anger

The Root of Economic Fragility and Political Anger

Courtesy of Robert Reich 

a road sign saying career change ahead

Missing from almost all discussion of America’s dizzying rate of unemployment is the brute fact that hourly wages of people with jobs have been dropping, adjusted for inflation. Average weekly earnings rose a bit this spring only because the typical worker put in more hours, but June’s decline in average hours pushed weekly paychecks down at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent.

In other words, Americans are keeping their jobs or finding new ones only by accepting lower wages.

Meanwhile, a much smaller group of Americans’ earnings are back in the stratosphere: Wall Street traders and executives, hedge-fund and private-equity fund managers, and top corporate executives. As hiring has picked up on the Street, fat salaries are reappearing. Richard Stein, president of Global Sage, an executive search firm, tells the New York Times corporate clients have offered compensation packages of more than $1 million annually to a dozen candidates in just the last few weeks.

We’re back to the same ominous trend as before the Great Recession: a larger and larger share of total income going to the very top while the vast middle class continues to lose ground.

And as long as this trend continues, we can’t get out of the shadow of the Great Recession. When most of the gains from economic growth go to a small sliver of Americans at the top, the rest don’t have enough purchasing power to buy what the economy is capable of producing.

Newly Unemployed Man

America’s median wage, adjusted for inflation, has barely budged for decades. Between 2000 and 2007 it actually dropped. Under these circumstances the only way the middle class could boost its purchasing power was to borrow, as it did with gusto. As housing prices rose, Americans turned their homes into ATMs. But such borrowing has its limits. When the debt bubble finally burst, vast numbers of people couldn’t pay their bills, and banks couldn’t collect. 

Each of America’s two biggest economic downturns over the last century has followed the same pattern. Consider: in 1928 the richest 1 percent of Americans received 23.9 percent of the nation’s total income. After that, the share going to the richest 1 percent steadily declined. New Deal reforms, followed by World War II, the GI Bill and the Great Society expanded the…
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What Does The Financial Reform Bill Do Other Than Being Completely And Utterly Worthless?

What Does The Financial Reform Bill Do Other Than Being Completely And Utterly Worthless?

Courtesy of Michael Synder at The Economic Collapse 

Is it possible to write a 2,300 page piece of legislation that accomplishes next to nothing and is pretty much completely and utterly worthless?  The answer is yes.  Barack Obama has been trumpeting the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill as the "biggest rewrite of Wall Street rules since the Great Depression", but the truth is that after the Wall Street lobbyists got done carving it up, the bill that was left was so watered down and so toothless that it essentially accomplishes nothing except creating even more government bureaucracy and even more mind-numbing paperwork. 

The bill is so riddled with loopholes for the big banks that it is basically the legislative equivalent of Swiss cheese.  The Democrats in the Senate were ecstatic when they announced that they had secured the 60 votes needed to pass this legislation, but when they are asked about what the financial reform bill will do, most of them are left stammering for some kind of cohesive response.  The sad truth is that most of them probably don’t understand the bill and none of them will probably ever read the entire thing.

So will the financial reform bill do any good at all?

Well, yes.

A very, very small amount.

Essentially, it is kind of like going over to the Pacific Ocean and scooping out a couple of cups of water.

That is about how much good this bill is going to do.

But U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is making this sound like this is some kind of history-changing legislation….

"We’re cleaning up Wall Street."

Oh really?

Charles Geisst, professor of finance at Manhattan College recently had the following to say about this absolutely toothless bill….

Like health-care reform, this bill is being drawn up to grab headlines but its details betray it as nothing more than a slap on the wrist for Wall Street. It is true that Wall Street can commit grand theft and apparently get off with nothing more than community service.

The truth is that most of us never expected the U.S. government to truly take on Wall Street.  The relationship between the two is just way too cozy for that to happen.

So does the financial reform bill actually accomplish anything?

Yes.

Let’s take a look…
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Do Hedge Funds Trade On Insider Information?

Do Hedge Funds Trade On Insider Information?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A very interesting research paper currently in publication by a team from York University headed by Nadia Massoud asks "Do Hedge Funds Trade on Private Information? Evidence from Syndicated Lending and Short-Selling" and analyzes whether or not hedge funds actively trade in the public securities of companies that had approached said hedge funds with private, capital structure specific (in this case loan syndication and amendment) information. The paper focuses on the period between 2005 and 2007, when the first wave of second- and third-lien debt that had been issued by crappy companies to hedge funds, was starting to become impaired and led to wave after wave of covenant and other bank loan amendments, designed to allow the borrower some breathing room.

Massoud also tracks whether or not in the days preceding the public announcement of a covenant amendment, traditionally seen as a sign of weakness by any borrower company, there was a spike in short-selling activity by hedge funds, courtesy of an interval between January 2nd 2005 to July 6th 2007, when RegSHO had made public extensive detail on equity short-selling data (why this is no longer the case one has to ask the corrupt SEC, but that is a question for after the next 10,000 point Dow flash crash when the SEC’s headquarters will finally be surrounded by rioting former investors who have had enough). The paper finds conclusive evidence that companies that come to lenders in hopes of amending syndicated credit facilities do indeed see aggressive shorting of their stock into the days preceding the formal announcement, implying that there is obviously material non-public information abuse and frontrunning. Here, the authors of the paper however, make a blatantly wrong assumption that this frontrunning originates almost exclusively from within the hedge funds that had been approached with the material non-public disclosure of weakness. We are happy to demonstrate that not only is that not necessarily the case, but to explain why certain sections of FT holding company Pearson can charge over $100,000 a year for premium subscription to their content by rich hedge fund subscribers, thereby once again creating a very tiered information market. We speak of course of Pearson niche media subsidiary www.debtwire.com

First, a brief observation of the York paper’s conclusions. As the charts below summarize, there is almost no doubt…
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Phil's Favorites

How to regulate Facebook and the online giants in one word: transparency

 

How to regulate Facebook and the online giants in one word: transparency

Courtesy of George BrockCity, University of London

Facebook: what are they really thinking? Shutterstock

Demands to regulate hi-tech companies like Google, Facebook and Apple are being heard at deafening pitch almost every day. This r...



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Zero Hedge

It Is Seven Times More Difficult To Get A Flight Attendant Job At Delta Than Enter Harvard

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of our preferred "off beat" economic indicators is how many workers apply at any one given moment in time for jobs that are hardly considered career-track. An example of this is the number of applicants for minimum wage line cook jobs at McDonalds, or flight attendant positions at Delta Airlines; conveniently, this is a series which we have tracked on and off for the past 7 years.

As re...



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Insider Scoop

Deutsche Bank Brightens Its View On Illumina

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ILMN Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 23, 2017 Illumina Now A Buy Following Q2 Beat, Improved Sale...

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Chart School

Large Caps Accelerate Gains; Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday belonged to Large Cap stocks as both S&P and Dow Industrials posted gains which looked better than the less than 1% they managed. Volume climbed to register accumulation. Technicals are healthy and the S&P posted a new 'buy' trigger relative to the Russell 2000 (Small Caps).  This may end up as a blow-off top but there is nothing in Friday's action to suggest such a top is in place.


...

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ValueWalk

Moody's Says Hartford Could Default As Early As November

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The historic headquarters of insurance giants like Aetna, and Cigna, Hartford Connecticut now faces a potential financial catastrophe.

On Thursday, October 19, it was announce that the likelihood of Hartford Connecticut, to meet its obligations for the month grows continually bleak. Moody’s has produced a press release stating their position that Hartford Connecticut is likely to default by month’s end.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

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Digital Currencies

An Evening in Wonderland

 

An Evening in Wonderland

Courtesy of 

 

 

You walk halfway across Rivington Street and in the middle of the block there’s an alley leading north, and then, inexplicably, it curves northwest. It’s remarkable in that on the Isle of Manhattan there aren’t any alleys. And this one is whimsical. Lights are strung overhead and artwork decorates the sides of the buildings as you make your way through. And then, at the end of Freemans Alley, you come to a tucked away restaurant in the back corner. It’s called Freemans (what else?).

If the setting for last night&rs...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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