Posts Tagged ‘Hungary’

Which Horizon?

Which Horizon?

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler 

UK, England, Tyne and Wear, Whitley Bay, St Mary's Lighthouse, dusk

     Did the nation heave a sigh of relief when BP announced that their latest gambit to "cap" the Deepwater Horizon gusher will result in hosing up fifty percent of the leaking oil? If so, the nation may be sighing too soon since the other half of the oil will still collect in underwater plumes and hover all around the Gulf Coast like those baleful mother ships in the most recent generation of alien invasion movies. I shudder to imagine the tonnage of dead wildlife flotsam that will wash up with the tide for years to come. It will seem like a "necklace of death" for several states, though even that may not be enough to distract them from the more gratifying raptures of Nascar and NFL football. 

     For the moment we can only speculate on what the still-unresolved incident will mean for America’s oil supply. The zeal to prosecute BP for something like criminal negligence has bestirred a Department of Justice comatose during the rape-and-pillage of the US financial system. BP may be driven out of business, but then what? The net effect of the oil spill, one way or another, will be the gradual shut-down of oil drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico. New government supervision will make operations very costly, if not non-viable, and the surviving companies will probably pack up for the west coast of Africa where supervision is almost non-existent.  Anyway you cut it, the US will produce less oil and import more — and have to rely on the political stability of places like Angola and Nigeria, not to mention the simmering Middle East.

     So far, also, the US has done nothing in the way of holding a serious national political discussion about the the most important part of the story: our pathological dependency on cars. I don’t know if this will ever happen, even right up to the moment when the lines form at the filling stations. For years, anyway, the few public figures such as Boone Pickens who give the appearance of concern about our oil problem, end up down the rabbit hole of denial when they get behind schemes to run the whole US car-and-truck fleet on something besides gasoline.

     This unfortunate techno-narcissism shows that almost nobody wants to think about living…
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Fickle Friday – Budapesky Concerns to Trump Jobs?

File:Trianon Statue Bekescsaba big.jpgOops, now it looks like Hungary is blowing up!

This is a big concern to me because I just asked "What will be the ‘shot heard round the world’ that sparks the next global revolution" and, wouldn’t you know it – it’s Hungary again!  It was also in June (of 1914) when the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria and his wife triggered a series of events that plunged the planet into World War I.  Today Hungary is the first of the Eastern Europe block to step into the economic confessional as a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban was quoted this morning as saying the nation’s economy is in a "grave situation."

Before WWI, Hungary was the 2nd largest nation in Europe (behind Russia) but the Treaty of Trianon (June 4th, 1920!) carved it up into 7 countries.  Modern Hungary has about 10M people and a GDP of $185Bn ($18,500 per capita) so it is not, by itself going to bring Europe down but keep in mind this is EXACTLY where we predicted we’d be last Friday, when I put up the chart of the Cycle of Fiat Currency Failures.  So let’s take this seriously folks – next on the list after the baltics is the UK and France and then it’s our turn!

They say those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it and maybe that’s why we are able to stay ahead of the game.  Yesterday we became concerned that Obama’s prediction of strong jobs numbers on Wednesday were already baked into the 200-point rally they sparked so I called an end to "short-term, unhedged, upside plays" in Member Chat at 10:04 and we added an aggressive upside play on BGZ that is designed to pay 1,000% if the market falls.  We also got more aggressively bearish on our Mattress Plays so to say we’re not expecting a big push on the jobs number is an understatement. 

Ahead of the close, I had commented to Members that, even if we get a big pop on the jobs number (need 600,000+), then we would likely short into it - looking for 10,350 at best to settle out but it the jobs come in below 450,000, then "look out below!"  Volume was unimpressive yesterday and, even though we benefited from the daily stick save, it wasn’t strong enough to impress us

The futures were looking like they were…
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Phil's Favorites

A year of Trump: how his incendiary style took the place of substance

 

A year of Trump: how his incendiary style took the place of substance

Courtesy of Clodagh Harrington, De Montfort University

Anyone looking for a visual representation of Donald Trump’s first year in office need only behold Time magazine’s cover marking the anniversary. Composed by artist Edel Rodriguez, it depicts Trump as a furious, bellowing mouth, his notorious hair rendered in livid flames.

For a year of poisonous rhetoric backed up with few substantial achievements, it could scarcely be more apt. Without even a glance at a policy checklist, the most casual observer knows that Trump has torn up the presidential rule book and set the shreds on fire.

Year One. My new cover for TIME magazine, on newsstands today....



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ValueWalk

Creating Bloomberg

By Akhlaqahmed9941. Originally published at ValueWalk.

An interview with billionaire founder of Bloomberg and previous Mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg. In this interview, Michael discusses creating Bloomberg and how he made it successful. Michael also talks about New York more generally and surviving economic downturns.

]]> Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

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Zero Hedge

Measuring The Equity Bubble - "You Are Here"

 

Measuring The Equity Bubble - "You Are Here"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Submitted by Francesco Filia via Fasanara Capital,

On best revisions for GDP and earnings in 2018 after Tax reform, the S&P is now less expensive than before, at just 57% above historical average...

...



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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Previews Netflix's Q4 Earnings: Rising Subscriber Numbers Drive Bullish Projections

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Needham's Laura Martin: Amazon Prime Price Increase Won't Affect Netflix, Roku Upcoming Netflix Earnings:...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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