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Posts Tagged ‘MOS’

PetroBras Bear Braces for Aftershock – Buys Ratio Put Spread

Today’s tickers: PBR, HOG, BMY, FXE, KFT, YHOO, MOS, NTGR, BIDU & DIS

PBR – Petroleo Brasileiro SA ADR – Shares of Brazil’s state-owned oil and natural gas company rose 1.20% to $40.02 this afternoon, adding to the nearly 8% recovery in shares since Friday February 5, 2010, up to an intraday high of $40.25. But, painfully recent memories of the nearly 30% decline in the price per PBR-share from $52.88 on December 1, 2009, to a six-month low of $37.31 on February 8, 2010, have one investor casting doubts that this week’s rebound in shares will last. The investor initiated a ratio put spread to hedge against further share price erosion through February expiration. The trader bought 10,000 puts at the February $39 strike for a premium of $0.50 apiece, and sold 20,000 puts at the lower February $36 strike for a premium of $0.10 each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to $0.30 per contract. Thus, the investor is positioned to amass profits should PBR’s shares slip beneath the breakeven price of $38.70 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $2.70 per contract are available to the trader if PetroBras’ share price falls 10% from the current price of $40.02 to reach $36.00 by expiration next Friday.

HOG – Harley-Davidson, Inc. – The motorcycle manufacturer’s shares declined 0.25% to $22.67 today prompting pessimistic options trades in the March contract. Investors purchased put spreads to position for potential share price erosion through expiration next month. Approximately 12,500 puts were picked up at the March $22 strike for an average premium of $1.08 apiece, spread against the sale of 12,500 puts at the lower March $19 strike for a premium of $0.25 each. The debit put spreads cost traders a net $0.83 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $2.17 per contract accumulate for put-spreaders if HOG’s share price plummets more than 16% from the current value of the stock to reach $19.00 by expiration.

BMY – Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. – Pharmaceutical company, Bristol-Myers Squibb, attracted bullish options traders today despite the 1.25% decline in the price of its shares to $23.94. One investor is optimistic that BMY’s shares will rally approximately 9% in the next five months to June expiration. The trader purchased a debit call spread to position for potential bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock. It appears the investor purchased 5,900 calls at the June $24 strike for a…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow - what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday’s high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day’s volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we’ll see how long the bull’s luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight’s earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we’ll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday’s ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won’t repeat it - suffice to say we have plenty of data this week to see if we justify these lofty levels.

Could Apple sell 2 million units of the new tablet at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion in 2010? Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinks they will.Apple generated almost $35B in revenue during the last 12 months.  If Munster is correct, the tablet could have a nice 3%+ impact on revenue and improve year-over-year revenue growth.Expectations are that it will be similar to the iPod touch but larger and capable of running most of the iPhone Apps and include a 3G cellular modem.Huge discussion on TechMeme.Kara Swisher / BoomTown:   The Jesus Tablet Will Walk on Water and Turn Fishes Into Moneyinternetnews.com:   Apple Touchscreen ‘iPad’ Could Take on NetbooksEric Slivka / MacRumors:   New Analyst Mockup and Sales Estimates for Apple’s TabletThe Mac Observer:   Analyst: Apple Tablet Worth $1.2 BillionDerek Thompson / The Atlantic Business Channel:   Apple Tablet: Super E-Reader or Super Mini-Computer?Everyone is talking about AAPL’s new "Slate" computer so I’m not going to. …
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Two Week Wrap-Up - Trading Our Range

Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive.  - Champstar2

We didn’t have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.

In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605.  That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we’ve been having a good time playing both ends of it.

Rather than just wrapping up this week’s moves, I thought we’d add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don’t say bears!) studying.  Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don’t just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors.  I’m talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective.  It’s not that I’m so good at predicting things - it’s really just that I’m good at spotting the BS…

Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving

I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars.  It’s a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next day

This week, we had 2 days like that with both Tuesday and Friday gapping up over 100 points at the open, accounting for 250% of the…
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Weekly Wrap Up - Double Up or Double Top?

Not such a good week!

Last week was FANTASTIC and we had 28 winning trades out of 36 with an average gain of 42% on the winners and an average loss of 12% on the losers - now THAT’s A GOOD WEEK.  We were stopped out of most of our bearish trades on Monday but we took a lot of new ones, which I’ll get into later…  Of course, since we are rangish and play both ends, the good news is we still had our "losers" and puts that we sold on long positions and those turned into huge winners in just 5 days:

  • AA at $13.30, out at $15 -  up 12.7%
  • AAPL Jan $165 puts sold for $7.40, now $4.70 - up 36%
  • BAC Oct $17 puts sold for .97, now .28 - up 71%
  • DIA Nov $92 calls at $5.40, now $7.30 - up 35%
  • MHP 2011 $25 puts sold for $5.20, now 5.10 - up 2%
  • RIMM March $100 calls at $1.45, now $1.25, down 13.7%

So, of the 6 that were not working last week, 5 are winners this week.  As I mentioned at the end of last week’s wrap up, we were more than satisfied with our 5% drop that week and we did expect a bit of a bounce but we made the mistake of thinking The 250 points we gained by Tuesday morning was the end of it, but here we are at the end of the week, another 100 points higher and right back where we started from when we shorted into the rally in mid September. 

Last weekend we were at a great point in our range as all our put plays had just paid off, this will be an interesting contrast as we have serious problems with our new short plays and we have a little less conviction than we had in mid September that we will get our correction - not after such a sharp turn off the 5% line this week.  Nonetheless, we did stay 55% bearish into the weekend overall - still playing for our range.  But, I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s go back to Monday and see how we got here….

Monday Market Manipulation - Goldman’s CIT Bonanza

I was not at all pleased with the scam GS was running on CIT and neither were many in the press but their attention span lasted all of 24 hours as the markets mysteriously began to take off, neatly drawing people’s attention elsewhere….

Our concern over falling tax…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday?

When your first trade of the day is a cover, you know you are too bearish!

That’s what happened to us yesterday when I sent out a 9:47 Trade Alert to Members for the QQQQ $41/42 bull call spread at .57 to cover the too bearish stance I was worried about in the morning post.  We exited that trade at .70 (up 22%) and that served it’s purpose of giving us some cash to put into rolling up our puts, following through on the strategy laid out in the morning post.  As I said at the time, these are the moves we’re making BEFORE we capitulate and our short plays will form a base from which we can aggressively go long once we clear our targets

I called off that QQQQ trade at 11:32, about 9 cents off the high of the day as they looked about to fail our 42 target which, as you can see from David Fry’s chart, is right about the middle of the weekly range so it’s a level we have to respect on multiple fronts.  We’re still waiting for a proper test of that 40 line, a 5% drop from here and PSQ (short QQQQ) calls are the main protection in our $100K Portfolio at the moment.  Any move below 40 on the Qs can re-shape the chart to a much more bearish formation long-term. 

We also covered up our long DIA puts, which flipped us more bullish overall and ended the day half-covered - neutral and confused but with more aggressive puts than we had on Monday so some small progress was made.  In addition to rolling up our bear plays like GLD puts, we added hedged January bullish plays on EDZ and TZA, went bullish on RIMM as they sold off to $65, bearish on MOS as they ran up to $49, bullish on WFR at $16, bearish on FCX at $70, April bullish and hedged on SKF, bearish on OIH at $118.50, Jan bearish and hedged on TIF at $40.75, bullish and hedged on April SCO and bullish on FXP at $9.45.  Overall a pretty busy and bearish day of trading.

As I said to members in my closing comments, the XLF couldn’t hold $15 and the Qs couldn’t hold 42, which were both watch levels for us during the day.  The index levels we were targeting were a mixed bag as we were looking for upside resistance at Dow 9,700, S&P 1,060, Nas 2,120,…
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Hewlett-Packard Options Deliver Winner to Call Seller

Today’s tickers: HPQ, ELX, FXI, IYR, MOS, WFC, ABX & VIX

HPQ - Shares of the global technology company have surrendered more than 2% to arrive at the current price of $43.85. Gloomy predictions by one bearish investor were rewarded during the session as he apparently made a closing purchase of a short call position in the September contract. It appears that the trader originally shed about 4,500 calls at the September 47 strike price for a premium of 65 cents each back on August 12, 2009. Today he closed out the short position by buying the calls back for just 12 cents per contract. The trader’s pessimistic foresight yielded net profits of approximately 52 cents for a total payoff of $238,500. – Hewlett-Packard Co. –

ELX - The telecommunications firm appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after bullish activity was detected in the January 2010 contract. Shares of ELX have resisted the overall bearish market momentum today by rising a modest 0.5% to $9.72. A bullish risk reversal was established through the sale of 5,000 puts at the January 7.5 strike for 30 cents each spread against the purchase of 5,000 calls at the higher January 12.5 strike for 35 cents apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to just one nickel per contract and positions the trader to benefit from further bullish movement in the price of the underlying. Shares of Emulex must rally approximately 29% higher by expiration in order for the investor to break even at a price of $12.55. – Emulex Corp. –

FXI - A bearish reversal play was enacted on the China ETF this afternoon amid a 2% decline in shares to $38.46. The investor responsible for the reversal may simply be looking to amass profits to the downside. Alternatively, the trader could hold a long position in the underlying stock, in which case he has taken a protective stance. The transaction involved the sale of 15,000 calls at the November 39 strike price for 3.00 apiece spread against the purchase of 15,000 in-the-money put options at the same strike for 3.20 each. The sale of the calls significantly reduced the cost of getting long the puts. The reversal cost the investor just 20 cents per contract and allows him to accrue profits beneath the breakeven price of $38.80. Given the current price of the FXI, the trader has already amassed profits of about 34…
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Gaylord Welcomes New Options Players As Investors Target Upside

Today’s tickers: GET, BAC, WFMI, KSS, HGSI, MOS, AES & NUAN

GET – The diversified hospitality and entertainment company edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after a bullish reversal was established in the October contract. Shares of GET have surged more than 17.5% to $17.22 today on “solid” second-quarter results which exceeded analyst expectations. An investor looking for continued gains in the stock sold 3,000 puts short at the October 12.5 strike price for 55 cents per contract in order to partially fund the purchase of 3,000 calls at the higher October 17.5 strike for a premium of 1.65 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts 1.10. The trader will begin to accrue profits by expiration if shares can continue higher by at least 8% to breach the breakeven point at $18.60. We note that the more than 6,000 lots exchanged on the stock today, trumps previous existing open interest of 1,993 contracts by 201%. – Gaylord Entertainment Company

BAC – A number of longer-term option trades observed on BAC today indicate that some investors believe the financial services firm is on the road to recovery. Shares have increased more than 3% to arrive at the current price of $15.80. Call spreads were enacted in the February 2010 contract by traders expecting significant appreciation in the value of the underlying shares by expiration. Approximately 14,000 calls were purchased at the February 20 strike price for an average premium of 86 cents apiece, and were spread against the sale of about 14,000 calls at the higher February 25 strike for 22 cents each. The average net cost of the transaction amounts to 64 cents. Investors will enjoy maximum potential profits of 4.36 per contract if shares of BAC can rally a whopping 58% to $25.00 by expiration in February. Traders will begin to amass profits given a 31% rise in the stock through the breakeven point at $20.64. – Bank of America Corp.

WFMI – The largest retailer of natural and organic foods in the U.S. is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today. Shares are currently off slightly by more than 1% to $24.45 as we near the conclusion of today’s trading session. Option trades revealed mixed sentiment by investors ahead of earnings. A trader who could be protecting a long position in the underlying was seen selling 5,000 puts short at the near-term August 23 strike price for 94…
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600-Point Weekly Wrap-Up: Selling High

Holy cow, what a week!

It is hard to believe that last weekend I wrote: "You can hardly find anyone who doesn’t think we’re going back to the March lows.  I stand by my statement to Members in yesterday morning’s Alert where I said:  "It’s ridiculous for the Dow to go back to 7,500 and ridiculous for the S&P to go back to 800.  While it’s easy to make squiggly lines on a chart show 10% drops ahead (which seems like a normal 50% retrace of the gains overall) I just think it’s dead wrong from a valuation perspective so I’m not inclined to play it, especially when those valuations are about to slap you in the face over the next few weeks.  Maybe I’m wrong and maybe earnings will suck and Q2 will be a miss and guidance will be lower but right now I say - Show me the misses."

Here we are, just 7 days later and I found myself writing an article about the ridiculous media cheerleading that went on last week.  How did the MSM go from 100% bearish to 100% bullish at the stoke of Monday?  Well, according to Cramer, it was Whitney, Whitney, Whitney and the logic seems to be that, since she called the problems in the financials early on, she MUST be right by calling an end to the problems now.  Of course what Whitney actually said was the banks should have a good quarter as the government pushes for massive mortgage refinancing (all those 1% fees really add up!) and she also said she sees unemployment shooting up another 35% to 13% or higher but hey - at least she said something positive about the banks and that’s all the media needed to hear to tear up the previous week’s entire playbook and switch sides so completely, you have to review the tape just to be sure we didn’t imagine the whole doomed, "head and shoulders" outlook of the week before.

What did I have to say about all this nonsense last weekend?  I was emphatic, and I’m usually not, and I said for those who would listen: "So here we are, back at the bottom of the trading range I predicted back in March and even as far back as November, when I said that, based on the fundamentals the crash should settle out at Dow 8,650."  I need to be clear about this so you…
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Canadian Energy Bulls Seek Call Options in Suncor

Today’s tickers: SU, EEM, IBM, AXP, MOS, GE, YHOO & MMM

SU – The Canadian energy company appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner today following a frenzy of bullish call buying activity in the August contract. Suncor’s shares climbed more than 4% during the trading day to $30.61, leading stocks in Canada higher on the rise in price of oil and the unexpected increase in June housing starts. Option-bulls purchased more than 17,000 calls at the August 31 strike price for an average premium of 1.56 apiece. Shares of SU must rally higher by about 6% in order for investors to begin to amass profits beyond the breakeven point of $32.56. Traders expecting an even sharper rise in the price of the underlying were seen picking up 5,300 calls at the higher August 32 strike for 1.00 per contract. These individuals are hoping shares breach $33.00 by expiration next month. – Suncor Energy Inc.

EEM – The emerging markets exchange-traded fund attracted one trader to initiate a bullish reversal amid a slight 1% rally in shares today to $33.61. The August 33 strike price had 20,000 puts sell for an average premium of 1.28 apiece spread against the purchase of 20,000 in-the-money calls at the same strike for 1.65 apiece. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to 37 cents to the investor responsible for the transaction. Selling the put options reduced the cost of buying the calls such that the trader has already amassed profits. Shares are currently 24 cents higher than the effective breakeven point of $33.37. Continued upward movement in the price of EEM will fatten this investor’s wallet through expiration. – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index

IBM – The world’s largest computer-services provider reported second-quarter earnings of 2.32 per share, putting average analyst estimates of 2.02 per share to shame. Shares of the firm have enjoyed a more than 3% rally today to $114.35, following the bullish earnings report. Option traders in the August contract have provided some guidance as to where the stock may be trading through expiration next month. The initiation of a sold strangle indicates this investor wants shares to remain at or about where they currently stand, yet has a decent amount of latitude into expiraiton. About 2,000 puts were sold for an average premium of 97 cents apiece at the August 105 strike price in conjunction with the simultaneous sale of 2,000 calls…
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Whirlpool Call Buyers in a Spin Over New Chinese Factory

Today’s tickers: WHR, MRK, EBAY, RHI, XLP, MOS, GE, LSI & MGM

WHR – The manufacturer of appliances and products for home use experienced a 7% surge in shares to $53.34 after announcing yesterday that it has opened a new factory in China with another appliance company known as Hisense-Kelon Electrical Holdings. Option traders were seen buying bullish call options at the July 55 strike price where 2,800 lots were scooped up for 28 cents each. One investor was seen locking into gains by purchasing a put spread in the August contract. The August 50 strike price had 2,200 puts bought for 2.61 apiece spread against the sale of 2,200 puts at the lower August 44 strike for a premium of 86 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 1.75 and yields maximum potential profits of 4.25 if shares of WHR recede to $44.00 by expiration next month. Finally, additional bullishness was observed as high as the August 60 strike price where traders bought 1,200 calls for an average premium of 1.37 per contract. Option implied volatility on Whirlpool has been steadily rising over the past two days, opening at about 53% on Wednesday and increasing to the current reading of 60%. – Whirlpool Corp.

MRK– The pharmaceutical company appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a ratio put spread was implemented in the October contract. The investor responsible for the transaction appears to be positioning for continued downward movement in the stock. Shares are currently lower by less than 0.5% to $27.69. The ratio spread involved the purchase of 5,715 in-the-money puts at the October 29 strike price for a premium of 2.70 each against the sale of 11,440 puts at the lower October 26 strike for 1.20 per contract. By selling twice as many puts, the investor reduced the cost of the transaction to just 30 cents. Thus, he will attain the maximum profits available of 2.70 if the stock declines to $26.00 by expiration. – Merck & Co., Inc.

EBAY – Shares of the online marketplace have enjoyed a rally of more than 4% today to arrive at the current price of $18.61. Investors who are hoping for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying were seen positioning themselves in the August contract. Approximately 6,500 call options were coveted at the August 20 strike price for a premium of 34 cents apiece.…
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Phil's Favorites

The Grand Chinese Fraud

Here's Karl Denninger on China,...

The Grand Chinese Fraud

Wen "cats in the kettle" Jaibao spouted:

“I don’t think the renminbi is undervalued,” Wen said yesterday at a press conference in Beijing marking the end of China’s annual parliamentary meetings, using another term for the yuan. “We oppose countries pointing fingers at each other and even forcing a country to appreciate its currency.”

...

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Zero Hedge

Foreign Fund Flows Analysis Per Most Recent TIC Data

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

We present a detailed analysis of international capital flows as disclosed by yesterday's most recent TIC data. Among the key observations we note that while foreign buying of Long Term Treasuries came at a healthy $61.4 billion in total net long-term treasuries, this was coupled by record selling of corporate debt, to the tune of ($24.6) billion. January also saw a net sale of over $5 billion in agency securities, offset by $4.3 billion in stock purchases.

Note the record sales of corporate bonds in January.

Over the last twelve months foreigners have bought $589 billion in LT USTs, have bought ...



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Chart School

Recent Popped Stops Again Reveal Character of Market

Recent Popped Stops Again Reveal Character of Market

Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade.com

Aaaand we’re off!  Buyers pushed prices higher to trigger yet another round of ‘popped stops’ not only this morning, but over the last few trading sessions.

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Trading Goddess

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 16th March 2010



Pivotfarm.com provides Support & Resistance, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Market Profile, Moving Average and Pivot Information for day traders. These data sheets are designed to help day traders gain an edge in the market, providing all the most important information a trader needs in one clear and concise data sheet.

Today's levels can be found by clicking here




You can now have the Support and Resistance levels emailed to you via our Newsletter every morning please sign up at pivotfarm.com

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any sta...



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Oxen Group Trades

The Oxen Report: Awaiting Fed Decision, Where Will Market Move?

Hope everyone had a great weekend. We are looking forward to another great week with The Oxen Report. We start off today with what should be a pretty neutral day in the markets. In pre-mark...



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The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


UnitedHealth Bulls Have a Fever – the Only Prescription is More Call Options

Today’s tickers: UNH, BZH, WFC, GE, XLB, WMT, BAC, COF, HOG, ETFC & STJ

UNH - UnitedHealth Group, Inc. – Health and well-being company, UnitedHealth Group, commenced the trading session in the red after Goldman Sachs Group removed the firm from its ‘Conviction Buy List’. However, UNH is still rated as a ‘buy’ at Goldman, and the company’s shares recovered this afternoon to stand 0.60% higher at $32.73. A fire-storm of bullish activity descended on UnitedHealth during the middle of the trading day. Investors gobbled up April contract call options perhaps to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares. Options players purchased 42,600 call options at the April $34 strike for an average ...



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Insider Zone


Insiders: March to Exit

By Ilene

Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second.  All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not.  Click here to see all the sells.  

Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of March 15th 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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