Posts Tagged ‘NRF’

Traders Look To Tumi Puts As Shares Edge Higher

 

Today’s tickers: TUMI, TWC & NRF

TUMI - Tumi Holdings, Inc. – Shares in luggage and travel accessories maker, Tumi Holdings Inc., are moving higher for a third consecutive session, up 1.6% today at $20.77 as of 12:10 p.m. ET. The stock continues to rebound following a sharp pullback last week during the first trading session of 2013. Options activity on Tumi this morning suggests some traders are wary the stock could reverse gains in the near term. The most active options on the stock today are the Jan. $20 strike puts, with upwards of 1,200 lots changing hands versus open interest of just nine contracts. It looks like most of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.70 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit in the event that Tumi’s shares slide 7% from the current level to breach the average breakeven price of $19.30 by January expiration. Shares in the luxury luggage company last traded below $19.30 back in August 2012. Tumi Holdings, Inc. is scheduled to present at the 15th Annual ICR XChange Conference in Miami next Wednesday.

TWC - Time Warner Cable, Inc. – The provider of video, high-speed data and phone services popped up on our market scanners this morning due to heavy volume in the February expiry put options. Shares in Time Warner Cable kicked off the week in positive territory, but have since reversed gains to trade down 0.60% on the day at $97.17 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. One options trader appears to be placing a floor on the cable operator’s shares, selling 6,250 puts at the Feb. $90 strike for a premium of $0.60 apiece. The strategy makes maximum profits of $0.60 per contract as long as shares in TWC settle above $90.00 and the puts land out-of-the-money at February expiration. The put seller could wind up having 625,000 shares of the underlying put to him at expiration if shares in the name decline 7.4% to $90.00 during the next five weeks. Time Warner reports fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on the…
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Bye Bye Buy List!

Oh, I have tried!

I have tried to be bullish, I have tried to get enthusiastic about this rally but I have been reviewing these picks for a few days and looking at the market, the charts, the sentiment, reading the news and studying the fundamentals and I'm OUT!  Oh, I'll be back, we'll set up a new, aggressive $100K Virtual Portfolio next week for some fun shorter-terrm plays (still keeping the conservative one for the full year) to take full advantage of this insanity but it's going to be mainly cash through the end of the month as I do not trust this rally one bit and it will be so nice to head into the easter holiday with lots of cash on the sidelines

We hit a perfect entry on Feb 8th, in our last round, and the market is up almost 9% since that day and I'm not expecting another 9% in the next 6 weeks so it's a very good time to take a break.  We were able to roll and enjoy these trades since Christmas and we will be revisiting some, maybe even keeping a few but, on the whole, I want to do what I often counsel members to do, which is follow our simple two-step process to maximizing your profits in a market rally:

  • Step 1) Take Money
  • Step 2) Run

There – isn't that simple?  Keep in mind that we LOVE all of these stocks so we'll be back in them if they go on sale and, perhaps, even if they don't and the market looks stronger through April earnings.  Meanwhile, keep in mind that these are 6-week profits so 20% is A LOT for generally conservative plays.  Not much else to talk about – let's just see how many of these suckers are worth keeping (noted in green):

AET (12/21 – $34.04, 1/9 – $32.70, 1/31 – $29.97, 3/18 – $33.24) They could not have done better for us, staying right in range and giving us 4 excellent sales but health care is passing this weekend and that's too wild for us to stick with.  Our last batch is right on target:

  • Apr $33 calls sold for $2.40, now .40 – up 83%
  • Apr $30 puts sold for $1.50, now .02 - up 99%
  • 2012 $25/35 bull call


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The Buy List – Q1 2010 (Members Only)

 

Well we finally hit our levels!

Fundamentally, I still don't buy this rally but, technically, we could go up and up from here.  We discussed in chat yesterday how we may be in a pattern similar to 2003-7 where we came out of the dot com crash and 9/11, which took the market lower than it should have and then government stimulus took us higher than we should have been.  Sure it all ended badly but there was a really good ride up in between.  HOWERVER, 2004, which is about where we would be now, was a choppy and downtrending year.  That is not a problem for our buy/write strategy as long as we keep our heads and scale into our positions.

Obviously we can't rely on patterns to simply keep repeating themselves.  We could have another terrorist attack, we could have more stimulus or maybe both in our future but, until we see the patten broken, we can play for a similar move.  Our buy/write strategy is ideal for this as it's a conservative play that gives us 15-20% downside protection.  Combine this with our usual strategy to scale into positons along with some sensible disaster hedges and we can build a nice, bullish virtual portfolio for 2010.  Keep in mind we don't fear the upside with buy/writes as our "worst case" there is we get called away with a nice profit.  

I put up our latest Watch List on Dec 22nd, following through from our bullish lists of September 6thOctober 8th and Nov 24th.  These are the bullish plays that form the bulk of our virtual portfolios and that sometimes gets lost in our weekly short-term trading.  It was a lot like shooting fish in a barrel, picking winners since September (we had our last Buy List on July 11th our first since the bottom in March, which was followed by the more conservatively mixed $100K Virtual Portfolio that we used from April through July, when we were worried the market would be choppy (it was).  As always, our active lists are found under the Virtual Portfolio Tab near the top of our pages - always check there for recent updates.

We did…
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Phil's Favorites

Guarding against the possible Spectre in every machine

 

Guarding against the possible Spectre in every machine

Courtesy of Scott ShackelfordIndiana University

A call to better track manufacturing, shipping and distribution. Travel mania/Shutterstock.com

Security vulnerabilities in technology extend well beyond problems with software. Earlier this month, researchers revealed that the hardware at the heart of ...



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ValueWalk

Bill Miller On Amazon, Google, Facebook And Bitcoin

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Miller Value Partners’ Bill Miller holds the record for being the only mutual fund manager to beat the market for 15 years in a row. One way he did it is by investing in new technologies that the Wall Street establishment thought were crazy at the time – Amazon, Google, and Facebook among them. His latest “crazy” idea: Bitcoin.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Listen to the audio only version here:

...



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Zero Hedge

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

 

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Global stocks and U.S. bond markets on Monday shrugged off day three of the US government shutdown in Washington, although the dollar pulled back as the euro continued its strong start to the year, while U.S. stock index futures dipped less than 0.1% on expectations that the political impasse will not hurt the U.S. economy and that it will be resolved shortly, which may prove to be an overly optimistic outlook.

Here is Bloomberg's quick on what has been a particularly quiet overnight session:

Exceptionally quiet European session due to lack of pert...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing Again...

 

Cryptos Are Crashing Again...

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

From South Korean bank blocks to Bulgarian ponzi scheme shutdowns and a Bali bitcoin crackdown, you can take your pick as to what is driving the sudden plunge in cryptocurrencies this morning. Ethereum is back below $1000, Bitcoin is back to a $10k handle, and Ripple is down 30% from the weekend's highs.

Weakness began around 6amET but really accelerated at around 8am ET...

With Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking key support levels..

The catalyst for the move is uncertain at best with numerous headlines over the weekend:

OneCoin offices ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 21, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Investors suffered through two whole days of losses in a shortened week – but the indexes still gained on the week!  Boo yah!  Even a sharp reversal Tuesday (gap up, close at the lows) – which is usually negative short term – couldn’t stop the freight train.  Earnings season kicked off in earnest.  The government shutdown put absolutely zero fear into markets.

“I would characterize a shutdown as just the kind of political news that the market has demonstrated, over the past year, a willingness to ignore,” said Hank Smith, co-chief investment officer at Haverford Trust, which manages $8 billion.

The S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week, while the NASDAQ jumped 1.0%.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at wealth manager Bleakley Financial G...



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Insider Scoop

34 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD) shares surged 137.9 percent to close at $2.95 on Friday after the company reported the acquisition of Intelligent Product Solutions.
  • NuCana PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ: NCNA) shares climbed 41.55 percent to close at $20.51 as the company announced plans to initiate a Phase 3 study of Acelarin in front-line advanced biliary tract cancer.
  • New Age Beverages Corporation (NASDAQ: NBEV) shares jumped 22.5 percent to close at $3.92 on Friday.
  • ...


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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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