Posts Tagged ‘Reggie Middleton’

Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog

368322 09: A car passes by the sign in front of the Apple offices Computer April 21, 2000 in Cupertino, CA. The company is one of many computer technology corporations situated in Silicon Valley. (Photo by David McNew/ Newsmakers).

Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:

Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010

Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?

Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.

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As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years?  We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
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As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

So it has been a month and a week since turning bearish on Research in Motion, and after more than 100% gains in ATM options, a launch of the companies most pivotal product and the figurative obliteration of market share by competitors Apple and Android, Rethink Wireless reports:

After a burst of enthusiasm around RIM’s launch of its latest BlackBerry, the Torch, the firm’s shares have slid again, amid reports of disappointing initial performance. The Torch 9700, the first smartphone to run the company’s upgraded operating system, BlackBerry OS 6, is seen as RIM’s crucial device to fend off the rising attack on its market from Apple and Android.
But online retailer Amazon has already slashed the price of the device to $99, less than a week after the phone shipped in the US on August 12, with an AT&T exclusive. It will soon appear in some European markets with Vodafone. According to estimates from analysts at Stifel Nicolaus and RBC, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, the Torch has sold just 150,000 units since launch, compared to 1.7m iPhone 4s in the first three days of that handset’s availability (and despite ‘Antennagate’).

But at launch, many analysts questioned whether it was enough to move ahead of Apple, HTC and other companies currently leading the field – or merely a catch-up device for a range that had fallen well behind the cutting edge.

In a new research note, analyst firm Gartner says it believes the Torch will appeal mainly to traditional BlackBerry users in the business world, and stop them defecting to other smartphones, but is unlikely to attract new users. It may fare better in Europe, where the BlackBerry has been making significant progress in the youth market, depending on carrier pricing and marketing.

Shares in RIM have fallen steadily since the launch of the Torch, dropping almost $5 per share since August 12. One analyst downgrading the firm was Scott Sutherland of Wedbush, who moved shares from outperform to neutral and wrote in a client note: “We continue to believe that RIM’s strategic positioning in the enterprise, alignment with carriers, new products, and international expansion will allow the company to participate in the solid
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An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Oppurtunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton writing at Zero Hedge 

Apple has had a hell of a time with what is arguably its most important product release since the initial iPhone in 2007. The handsets have been plagued with spotty screens, combustible USB ports, signal strength measurement inconsistencies, and the most damaging of the issues – an ill-conceived antenna design that causes attenuation when held from the lower left had corner. Steve Jobs did the Blankfein (Goldman Sachs CEO, stating that the Wall Street bank was doing God’s work) imitation by opening his mouth when he shouldn’t have and said that users were “hold the phone the wrong way”. Not only that, but Consumer Reports just came out with a report stating that they can not recommend the buying of an iPhone until the antenna situation has been rectified, prompting speculation that Apple will be forced to recall millions of phones.

As a matter of fact, the review was rather poignant:

“If you want an iPhone that works well without a masking-tape fix, we continue to recommend an older model, the 3G S.”

Apple iPhone 4 antenna problem solution tape
One solution to the Apple iPhone 4’s antenna problem is to cover the lower left corner with tape.

As evidence of the danger of relying on “lifestyle” marketing (see An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught)…

It is very easy to fall out of favor with the trendy crowd. While I doubt very seriously that Apple is in danger of doing this anytime soon, a massive recall will open the door for devices which are technically much more capable, flexible and open than the iPhone, ex. the Android powered HTC and Samsung devices. Basically, the danger to Apple here is not the expense of a recall, but the loss of mindshare and potential widening of the opening for some very capable competition – an opening that did not have to be there!

Don’t believe me, click the link to the consumer reports article and peruse the comment section…

Posted by: John |
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How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism

How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism Through the European Union!

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

The IMF, like many other international institutions, asserts that it has a “preferred creditor status”, and this has been a practiced convention in the past. Thus, IMF has de facto seniority rights over private creditors despite the fact that there is no legal or treaty-based foundation to support this claim and this seniority of rights for IMF will continue under the recent EU rescue plan announced as well as it has not been noted otherwise implicitly nor explicitly. This is the reason why Sarkozy said it is a said day when the EU has to accept a bailout from the IMF (aka, the US). The EU now, and truly, contains a significant parcel of debtor nations.

To add fuel to this global macro tabloidal fire, the Euro members’ loan will be pari passu with existing sovereign debt i.e. it will not be considered senior. Although there is no written, hard evidence to support this claim, it is our view that otherwise there will be no incentive for investors to hold the debt of troubled countries like Greece, which will ultimately defeat the whole purpose of the rescue package. Moreover, there are indications that support this idea. As per Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, “We are not talking about a special preference for the eurogroup loans, that’s not possible because then you would have the situation that already-existing rights of creditors at the moment would be harmed.” (reference http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-16/netherlands-excludes-senior-status-for-greek-aid-update1-.html). Of course, if more investors did their homework and ran the numbers, that same disincentive can be said to exist with the IMF’s super senior preference given the event of a default and recoverable collateral after the IMF has fed at the trough.

The ramifications:

IMF’s preferred creditor status coupled with the expensive Euro members’ loans which are part of the rescue package can create a public debt snowball effect that could push the troubled countries towards insolvency when the IMF debt becomes repayable in three years time. This could be seen particularly in case of Greece (subscribers, please reference Greece Public Finances Projections). Even if all the spending cuts and revenue raising are achieved as planned for Greece, its debt will peak to 149.1% of the GDP in 2013. Please keep…
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Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware

Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware 

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton’s BoomBustBlog.com

Inner court, Fleet

There are broad indications hinting that Italy and Greece are not the only countries that have used swap agreements to manipulate its budget and deficit figures. France and Portugal may be two other European economies which have resorted to similar manipulations in the past in order to qualify as part of single currency member nations (Euro Zone). Below is a small subset of the research that I have been gathering as I construct a global sovereign default model. This model is very comprehensive and thus far has indicated that quite a few (as in more than two or three) nations of significance have a 90% probability of defaulting on their debt in the near to medium term.

More on this later. Now let’s dig into what we have found that looks like gross manipulation of the numbers in order to hide debt in several European countries. I think I’ll call it the Pan-European Ponzi. Conspiracy theorists are going to love this post.

Like Italy (see below), Portugal has also been known for years to take advantage of derivatives contracts to dress up its budget numbers in the late 1990s. In a recent press article (Debt Deals Haunt Europe) Deutsche Bank’s spokesman Roland Weichert commented that the bank executed currency swaps on behalf of Portugal between 1998 and 2003. He also said that Deutsche Bank’s (DB) business with Portugal included "completely normal currency swaps" and other business activity, which he declined to discuss in detail. He also added that the currency swaps on behalf of Portugal were within the "framework of sovereign-debt management," and the trades weren’t intended to hide Portugal’s national debt position (yeah okay!).

Though the Portuguese finance ministry declined to comment on whether Portugal has used currency swaps such as those used by Greece, it said Portugal only uses financial instruments that comply with European Union rules. Thus, if the use of these instruments complied with


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Reggie Middleton on Suntrust’s Q3-09 Earnings

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

For all of you momentum chasing, non-calculating, never touched a spreadsheet, CNBC luvin’, James Cramer watchin’ bulls out there, I have a feeling you will be hearing a lot of I told’ja so’s over the next 12 months. I express this in jest (yes, I’m a part time comedian), but there is a serious streak here as well. I believe the equity prices are soaring on top of near, or actually, insolvent companies.

Well, hopefully by now you have heard of the Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!), of which Suntrust was a founding member. Well, they are even on the board of the The Doo Doo 32, revisited. Click the links, they’re worth the read. Since Suntrust reported today, I though I would go over some of the numbers but before I do let’s get the flavor from the main stream media…

 
 

SunTrust posts 3Q loss but sees some signs improve   22 Oct 2009  -  The Associated Press: ATLANTA – SunTrust Banks Inc. on Thursday posted a big third-quarter loss as it set aside more money to cover bad loans, but said the rate at which mortgages were slipping into delinquency slowed for the first time in a year.

The bank reported a loss of $377.1 million, or 76 cents per share, compared with a year-ago profit of $304.4 million, or 87 cents per share.

The latest quarter included charges of 16 cents per share related to the valuation of certain debt.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, forecast a loss of 65 cents per share. Analysts typically do not include one-time gains or charges in their estimates. #ff0000;">Why don’t these analysts have thier banks part with a fraction of that record trading revenue (I’ll be getting to that in my next post) and subscribe to BoomBustBlog!?

Net interest income, or money earned from traditional banking operations like deposits, slipped slightly to $1.17 billion from $1.18 billion. Total deposits reached $114.5 billion, up 14 percent from last year.

The bank more than doubled its provision for loan losses — money set aside to cover souring loans — to $1.13 billion, from $503.7 million in the 2008 quarter.

Loans considered


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Zero Hedge

Recession Odds Spike To 37%, JPM Calculates, Highest Yet For This Cycle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While not as dire as the recent analysis by Deutsche Bank which calculated that a recession over the next 12 months is more than likely, with odds rising to 60%, overnight JPM released its latest recession probability analysis, and - somewhat unexpectedly following the last two stellar job reports and a full court political press that the recovery has rarely been stronger going into the election - now sees a 37% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. This is the highest ...



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Market News

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Financial Markets and Economy

Iron Ore Market Seen Collapsing Below Last Year’s Nadir: Chart (Bloomberg)

The iron ore market is about to swoon, according to Westpac Banking Corp., which forecasts benchmark prices may sink below last year’s nadir of $38.30 a metric ton. 

Fear! M1 Money Multiplier Remains Below 1.0 Since End Of Great Recession (And Financial Crisis) (Confounded Interest)

The M1 Money Multiplier is the ratio of M1* to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and it has been below 1.0 since June 2...



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Phil's Favorites

One Million Market Beaters

Wow. If you're planning to beat the market by being an exceptional stock picker, this article is a MUST READ.

One Million Market Beaters

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

  • Uncertainty remains, but Florida is in the cross hairs.
  • What to expect today after tornado outbreak.
  • Why we’re watching Gaston closely now.

These headlines were pulled from a few articles today at weather.com. You could seamlessly replace Florida, tornado, and Gaston with a stock be...



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ValueWalk

IMF knew the euro had serious flaws, Sacrificed Greece

By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

BY JOHN MAULDIN

There’s a new chapter in the ongoing tale of IMF incompetence. Take a look at this UK Telegraph headline that recently caught my eye.

The love affair was no surprise. Nor was the fact that the IMF had taken part in the immolation of Greece. No, the surprise was that the IMF would publicly disclose the extent of incompetence and massive rule breaking that had taken place.

The Ambrose Evans-Pritchard byline told me this would be a good story. Here’s his lead:

The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleade...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Loss Follows the Jackson Hole Drama

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

This morning's Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today's session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 opened higher, rallied with the opening of her speech, and then sold off sharply during with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's suggestion that a couple of rate hikes this year were possible. The index bounced back later in the afternoon to its -0.16% Friday close. The index is down 0.68% for the week.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.62%, up four basis points from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Basic Materials attempting breakout says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Basic Materials stocks can often times give a decent snap shot of how an economy is doing from a growth or lack of perspective. Below looks at Basic Materials ETF (IYM) over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

IYM remains inside of an upward sloping mult-year rising channel (1), since 2009. It hit the bottom of this channel earlier this year and has bounce off support. Currently IYM is testing f...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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