Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Posts Tagged ‘Reggie Middleton’

Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog

368322 09: A car passes by the sign in front of the Apple offices Computer April 21, 2000 in Cupertino, CA. The company is one of many computer technology corporations situated in Silicon Valley. (Photo by David McNew/ Newsmakers).

Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:

Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010

Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?

Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.

image006.png

As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years?  We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That’s Frying RIMM’s Share Price

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

So it has been a month and a week since turning bearish on Research in Motion, and after more than 100% gains in ATM options, a launch of the companies most pivotal product and the figurative obliteration of market share by competitors Apple and Android, Rethink Wireless reports:

After a burst of enthusiasm around RIM’s launch of its latest BlackBerry, the Torch, the firm’s shares have slid again, amid reports of disappointing initial performance. The Torch 9700, the first smartphone to run the company’s upgraded operating system, BlackBerry OS 6, is seen as RIM’s crucial device to fend off the rising attack on its market from Apple and Android.
But online retailer Amazon has already slashed the price of the device to $99, less than a week after the phone shipped in the US on August 12, with an AT&T exclusive. It will soon appear in some European markets with Vodafone. According to estimates from analysts at Stifel Nicolaus and RBC, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, the Torch has sold just 150,000 units since launch, compared to 1.7m iPhone 4s in the first three days of that handset’s availability (and despite ‘Antennagate’).

But at launch, many analysts questioned whether it was enough to move ahead of Apple, HTC and other companies currently leading the field – or merely a catch-up device for a range that had fallen well behind the cutting edge.

In a new research note, analyst firm Gartner says it believes the Torch will appeal mainly to traditional BlackBerry users in the business world, and stop them defecting to other smartphones, but is unlikely to attract new users. It may fare better in Europe, where the BlackBerry has been making significant progress in the youth market, depending on carrier pricing and marketing.

Shares in RIM have fallen steadily since the launch of the Torch, dropping almost $5 per share since August 12. One analyst downgrading the firm was Scott Sutherland of Wedbush, who moved shares from outperform to neutral and wrote in a client note: “We continue to believe that RIM’s strategic positioning in the enterprise, alignment with carriers, new products, and international expansion will allow the company to participate in the solid
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , ,




An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Oppurtunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton writing at Zero Hedge 

Apple has had a hell of a time with what is arguably its most important product release since the initial iPhone in 2007. The handsets have been plagued with spotty screens, combustible USB ports, signal strength measurement inconsistencies, and the most damaging of the issues – an ill-conceived antenna design that causes attenuation when held from the lower left had corner. Steve Jobs did the Blankfein (Goldman Sachs CEO, stating that the Wall Street bank was doing God’s work) imitation by opening his mouth when he shouldn’t have and said that users were “hold the phone the wrong way”. Not only that, but Consumer Reports just came out with a report stating that they can not recommend the buying of an iPhone until the antenna situation has been rectified, prompting speculation that Apple will be forced to recall millions of phones.

As a matter of fact, the review was rather poignant:

“If you want an iPhone that works well without a masking-tape fix, we continue to recommend an older model, the 3G S.”

Apple iPhone 4 antenna problem solution tape
One solution to the Apple iPhone 4’s antenna problem is to cover the lower left corner with tape.

As evidence of the danger of relying on “lifestyle” marketing (see An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught)…

It is very easy to fall out of favor with the trendy crowd. While I doubt very seriously that Apple is in danger of doing this anytime soon, a massive recall will open the door for devices which are technically much more capable, flexible and open than the iPhone, ex. the Android powered HTC and Samsung devices. Basically, the danger to Apple here is not the expense of a recall, but the loss of mindshare and potential widening of the opening for some very capable competition – an opening that did not have to be there!

Don’t believe me, click the link to the consumer reports article and peruse the comment section…

Posted by: John |
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,




How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism

How the US Has Perfected the Use of Economic Imperialism Through the European Union!

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

The IMF, like many other international institutions, asserts that it has a “preferred creditor status”, and this has been a practiced convention in the past. Thus, IMF has de facto seniority rights over private creditors despite the fact that there is no legal or treaty-based foundation to support this claim and this seniority of rights for IMF will continue under the recent EU rescue plan announced as well as it has not been noted otherwise implicitly nor explicitly. This is the reason why Sarkozy said it is a said day when the EU has to accept a bailout from the IMF (aka, the US). The EU now, and truly, contains a significant parcel of debtor nations.

To add fuel to this global macro tabloidal fire, the Euro members’ loan will be pari passu with existing sovereign debt i.e. it will not be considered senior. Although there is no written, hard evidence to support this claim, it is our view that otherwise there will be no incentive for investors to hold the debt of troubled countries like Greece, which will ultimately defeat the whole purpose of the rescue package. Moreover, there are indications that support this idea. As per Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, “We are not talking about a special preference for the eurogroup loans, that’s not possible because then you would have the situation that already-existing rights of creditors at the moment would be harmed.” (reference http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-16/netherlands-excludes-senior-status-for-greek-aid-update1-.html). Of course, if more investors did their homework and ran the numbers, that same disincentive can be said to exist with the IMF’s super senior preference given the event of a default and recoverable collateral after the IMF has fed at the trough.

The ramifications:

IMF’s preferred creditor status coupled with the expensive Euro members’ loans which are part of the rescue package can create a public debt snowball effect that could push the troubled countries towards insolvency when the IMF debt becomes repayable in three years time. This could be seen particularly in case of Greece (subscribers, please reference Greece Public Finances Projections). Even if all the spending cuts and revenue raising are achieved as planned for Greece, its debt will peak to 149.1% of the GDP in 2013. Please keep…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware

Smoking Swap Guns in EuroLand: Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware 

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton’s BoomBustBlog.com

Inner court, Fleet

There are broad indications hinting that Italy and Greece are not the only countries that have used swap agreements to manipulate its budget and deficit figures. France and Portugal may be two other European economies which have resorted to similar manipulations in the past in order to qualify as part of single currency member nations (Euro Zone). Below is a small subset of the research that I have been gathering as I construct a global sovereign default model. This model is very comprehensive and thus far has indicated that quite a few (as in more than two or three) nations of significance have a 90% probability of defaulting on their debt in the near to medium term.

More on this later. Now let’s dig into what we have found that looks like gross manipulation of the numbers in order to hide debt in several European countries. I think I’ll call it the Pan-European Ponzi. Conspiracy theorists are going to love this post.

Like Italy (see below), Portugal has also been known for years to take advantage of derivatives contracts to dress up its budget numbers in the late 1990s. In a recent press article (Debt Deals Haunt Europe) Deutsche Bank’s spokesman Roland Weichert commented that the bank executed currency swaps on behalf of Portugal between 1998 and 2003. He also said that Deutsche Bank’s (DB) business with Portugal included "completely normal currency swaps" and other business activity, which he declined to discuss in detail. He also added that the currency swaps on behalf of Portugal were within the "framework of sovereign-debt management," and the trades weren’t intended to hide Portugal’s national debt position (yeah okay!).

Though the Portuguese finance ministry declined to comment on whether Portugal has used currency swaps such as those used by Greece, it said Portugal only uses financial instruments that comply with European Union rules. Thus, if the use of these instruments complied with


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , ,




Reggie Middleton vs Goldman Sachs, Round 1

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

This is the opinion piece that I promised on Goldman Sachs research and product sales. I want it to be clear that I have absolutely nothing against Goldman Sachs, and if I worked there I would want $19 billion of bonuses too, despite the fact that I just got bailed out by the taxpayer to the tune of over $50 billion and still have middle class taxpayer funded government subsidies intact. The fact of the matter is that I don’t work for Goldman Sachs, and the reverence that they receive is illogical and borderline sickening, not to mention having nothing to do with the reality of the situation.

Note: I am typing this post at 3:30 in the morning, so there may be some typos and guffaws in the text, which I will try to catch and demarcate with a strikethough.

The mainstream media jumps when Goldman’s sales and marketing staff analysts make a recommendation or prediction, despite the fact that no one really bothers to look back to see how profitable the GS sales and marketing staff analysts have been for their clients vs the risk-adjusted profitability for their bonus pool shareholders. One example that I have used in my previous posts was Lehman Brothers, who I became increasingly bearish on in early 2008 (if you’re a regular reader, please bear with this rehash):

The esteemed Goldman Sachs did not agree with my thesis on Lehman. Reference the following graph, and click it if you need to enlarge. Notice the tone, and ultimately the outright indication of a fall in the posts from February through April 2008 above, and cross reference with the rather rosy and optimistic guidance from the esteemed Goldman (Sachs) boys during the same time period, then… Oh yeah, Lehman filed for bankruptcy!!! 

image006.png

Does anybody think that Lehman was a "one off" occurrence? Or for that matter does anyone believe…
continue reading


Tags: ,




Reggie Middleton on Suntrust’s Q3-09 Earnings

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton

For all of you momentum chasing, non-calculating, never touched a spreadsheet, CNBC luvin’, James Cramer watchin’ bulls out there, I have a feeling you will be hearing a lot of I told’ja so’s over the next 12 months. I express this in jest (yes, I’m a part time comedian), but there is a serious streak here as well. I believe the equity prices are soaring on top of near, or actually, insolvent companies.

Well, hopefully by now you have heard of the Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!), of which Suntrust was a founding member. Well, they are even on the board of the The Doo Doo 32, revisited. Click the links, they’re worth the read. Since Suntrust reported today, I though I would go over some of the numbers but before I do let’s get the flavor from the main stream media…

 
 

SunTrust posts 3Q loss but sees some signs improve   22 Oct 2009  -  The Associated Press: ATLANTA – SunTrust Banks Inc. on Thursday posted a big third-quarter loss as it set aside more money to cover bad loans, but said the rate at which mortgages were slipping into delinquency slowed for the first time in a year.

The bank reported a loss of $377.1 million, or 76 cents per share, compared with a year-ago profit of $304.4 million, or 87 cents per share.

The latest quarter included charges of 16 cents per share related to the valuation of certain debt.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, on average, forecast a loss of 65 cents per share. Analysts typically do not include one-time gains or charges in their estimates. #ff0000;">Why don’t these analysts have thier banks part with a fraction of that record trading revenue (I’ll be getting to that in my next post) and subscribe to BoomBustBlog!?

Net interest income, or money earned from traditional banking operations like deposits, slipped slightly to $1.17 billion from $1.18 billion. Total deposits reached $114.5 billion, up 14 percent from last year.

The bank more than doubled its provision for loan losses — money set aside to cover souring loans — to $1.13 billion, from $503.7 million in the 2008 quarter.

Loans considered


continue reading


Tags: ,




 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Are We Addicted to Failure?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Are We Addicted to Failure?

Like all addicts, Central Planners are confident they can manage the monkey on their back. But this is a self-serving illusion.

Addiction is many things, but beneath its complexities it is a self-destructive expression of the desire to avoid or suppress pain. The pain might be physical or the stuff of the mind, memories or inner demons or tortured misgivings about one's choices, soul and life.

Though the self-destructive aspects of the addiction are painfully ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Debt Rattle Jul 25 2014: The Big Energy = Power Battle Is Coming

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


DPC The Flatiron Building, NY 1903

I don’t really want to keep talk about Ukraine, but it’s too hard to avoid. Besides, it’s not the same story anymore that it was when the week began, since the economic war vs Putin and Russia is now escalating. For reasons that have nothing to do with the plane crash, though they may seem to, a fact that completely seems to escape 999 out of 1000 people.

We still don’t know who shot that plane (we’re not even sure anyone did), and the longer is takes to get evidence for who did it, the more likely it is that such evidence will be tainted and/or fabricated.

That’s undoubtedly why the western media simply bypass the need for evidence, which is worrisome on multiple fronts....



more from Ilene

Chart School

Consensus Building for 2016 Stock Market Bubble, Crash

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The year 2016 will see a number of important events: the US presidential election, the Summer Olympics, and, according to a growing number of market analysts, another financial crisis.

Why? What’s so special about 2016? That’s the interesting thing—they all have different reasons.

First, I have to admit, I didn’t realize this pattern until it reached a certain level of blatant obviousness when the always chipper Paul Farrell of MarketWatch recently wrote a piece titled, “Great Crash of 2016, third $10 trillion loss this century.”

Paul isn’t an analyst…or,...



more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

DigiTimes Reports Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Affiliate Receives Apple iWatch Orders

Courtesy of Benzinga.

An affiliated company of Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX), Universal Scientific Industrial, has reportedly received SiP module orders from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) for the iWatch according to industry sources, as reported by DigiTimes. Each SiP module costs approximately $60, which is 20% of the iWatch's rumored $300 price tag.

View full article http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20140723PD209.html

Posted-In: Digitimes...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.

...

more from Caitlin

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

more from SWW

Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>