Posts Tagged
‘Roubini’
by Phil - June 15th, 2010 8:17 am
Once again CNBC has gone too far!
The futures were doing very well, up almost 1% until CNBC put together the tag-team guest spot of Mohamed El-Erian, the notorious bond pusher from Pimpco and "Doctor Doom" himself – Nouriel Roubini in a classic bear and bigger bear face-off that was timed right into the EU’s lunch hour. Roubini’s new book is called "Crisis Economics" and there’s nothing like a crisis to chase people into the loving arms of PIMCO, where El-Erian gets the fees. It’s odd that there’s not even a simple disclosure statement from El-Erian to guide viewers like: "You know, I do well when the market does bad."
This same gloom and doom tag-team was touring America in September of 2008 (see "Roubini, El-Erian – ‘Things are Getting Worse‘") and we’re up about 20% since then but, to be fair, things did get worse first. The boys teamed up again this February (12th) and their predicition of an additonal 20% drop off the February lows (also brought to you by the fear-mongers at CNBC) was completely wrong at the time but the boys dusted themselves off and took this show on the road again as noted in this May 28th article pairing the two’s depressing outlook.
Things were getting better yesterday until Moody’s (the company Buffett owns a large stake in but has nothing to do with according to his testimony) downgraded Greece in the afternoon – something that was not at all unexpected but was treated as market-moving information on a slow news day. Does CNBC push doom and gloom for ratings or are they trying to help their bosses at GE water down the financial regulation bill by making it seem like the average investor is against it or are they just trying to keep Cramer and the Fast Money team from looking clueless? This is why we used to have LAWS that kept our news sources "fair and balanced" - the moment a news provider takes a side with one of their high profile shows or personalities – they then have a vested interest in MAKING the prediction come true – how can that not color their future editorial positions?
As I said last week, Dr. Doom doesn’t have to be in on a conspiracy – He’s Doctor Doom! The media loves him because he is predictable tool and he is…
Tags: DIA, EUO, GE, MCO, PIMCO, Roubini, TZA
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by ilene - March 22nd, 2010 11:57 pm
Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet
As if TheStreet.com didn’t already have enough troubles with the SEC investigating their accounting, another Street veteran Doug Kass joins the pile fools who have tried to make prophetic claims regarding the stock market. (Nouriel Roubini is still my favorite.)
On August 26, 2009, Kass authoritatively proclaimed, “Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.”
On September 30, 2009,
…
Tags: 7 months, banking crisis, benefit of the doubt, case in point, chutzpah, Citigroup, conviction, Doug Kass, fools, James Cramer, Lenny Dystra, men in black, mind eraser, new highs, rainy day, Real Money, Roubini, sixth sense, street veteran, swine flu, TheStreet.com, u s stock market
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by Phil - February 3rd, 2010 8:21 am
So close but yet so far!
We set our bounce levels way back on Jan 25th and just yesterday I posted up the WEAK BOUNCE levels we need to see before taking our bullish betting to the next level but we have only skimmed along our lines, finishing yesterday at Dow 10,296 (down by 2), S&P 1,103 (down by 2), Nasdaq 2,190 (down by 10), NYSE 7,001 (up by 1) and RUT 614 (down by 6). This may be seem like some pretty amazing targeting 10 days in advance but, actually, we could have predicted this move last year as it’s nothing more than the same 5% Rule levels we’ve been using since the middle of last year.
That is why, we are not in the least bit impressed by close. Close, as they say, is no cigar! Don’t forget those are the natrural dead-cat type bounce levels off the drop from the top that we are trained to IGNORE as they are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. What is meaningful is when they we retake those levels and that means we found a true floor at 5% (see weekend chart) NOT taking back AND holding our retrace levels means we are very likely to see phase 2 of our leg down and hit 10% drop levels of Dow 9,630, S&P 1,035, Nasdaq 2,088, NYSE 6,660 and Russell 585 so we will now become much more concerned by failure or those lower levels (10,058 on the Dow etc) which MUST HOLD.
We’re not there yet, we MAY be consolidating along the 5% lines and that would be good, but unnerving. We have our disaster hedges in place and we got our commodity rally so we can on some oil puts (what a joke at $77.50 already with yet another inventory build to be announced today) and perhaps even some gold puts as we test $1,130 (GLL $9 puts have very little premium at .90). Our favorite hedge of the moment is once again EDZ, who are back to $5.50 thanks to a nice move up in Asia today. March $5 puts can be sold for .45 and that’s a very nice way to collect premium as EDZ has to fall 20% before you even owe the putter a nickel but the July $4/6 bull call spread at .85 pays $2 (up 135%) should emerging markets falter…
Tags: CHINA, debt, EDZ, GLL, Gold, Greece, IYR, PIMCO, Roubini, SRS, Stiglitz, TBT
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by ilene - February 1st, 2010 5:20 pm
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
Out of Davos come two opinions that Bloomberg (and others) have spun as arguing for "continuing stimulus efforts":
“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini said in a Jan. 30 Bloomberg Television interview following a U.S. Commerce Department report that showed economic expansion of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. “I think we are in trouble.”
Roubini said more than half of the growth was related to a replenishing of depleted inventories and that consumption was reliant on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, the rate will slow to 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010.
No really? We’ve embedded $500 billion in annual transfer payments of various forms over the last 18 months. That’s about 3% of GDP, or more than the "advance" GDP number says that personal consumption expanded (2.2%)
In other words, but for the additions to transfer payments over what was present before we went into this mess consumption would be printing a solid negative number – still.
Summers said that the "statistical recovery" won’t mask "a human recession."
Human recession Larry? Is that like the "mental recession" that John McCain’s favored economic wonk proclaimed during the campaign?
Never mind our "good friend" President Obama, who is proposing a $3.8 trillion budget today. In a break with the usual "optimistic" view compared to the CBO, he’s predicting that the deficit this year will total $1.8 trillion, or almost 50% of the total federal spending – and that’s with more than $800 billion in higher taxes (which have a near-zero chance of actually passing Congress in an election year!)
The President claims to be enacting a "spending freeze" and claims that it is "everything but security and defense." In typical Washington form this is a lie – education and R&D (everywhere) are getting a 6% increase. This, while inflation is currently running at a statistical zero, and on the back of the last year’s budget which amounted to a "ratchet up" game played with the voters.
This is the same game, by the way, that was played with the states and their so-called "Federal Help"…
Tags: Human recession, mental recession, monetary and fiscal stimulus, Obama, politicians, President Obama, Roubini, Summers, transfer payments, Wall Street
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by Phil - January 31st, 2010 7:40 am
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Work our lives just to lose our homes
Interest come and we need another loan
Stack default swaps till they come undone
Interest come and we need another loan
Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan
Come on Economists, tell us some more BS
Interest come and we need another loan
6%, 7% – it’s a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan
6%, 7% – it’s a credit crunch
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
Interest come and we need another loan
Debt-O, debt-uh-oh
When interest comes we’ll need another loan
It was the best of times (with the IMF predicting 3.9% Global growth) and the worst of times (with Roubini saying we’re all doomed) at Davos this week as the men who rule the world gathered to divide the spoils over card games while vying with each other for podium and TV time so they could talk their various books from the safety of the Swiss mountains. Davos, a tiny village perched on a mountain with just two main streets, lacks the protests of other Global gatherings. During the annual meeting, the town is taken hostage by thousands of police. “Anyone who looks like a protester can be thrown off the train,” says Marco Leutholz, head of the local Socialist party (and that train often overlooks steep cliffs!). Sir Howard Davies (director of the LSE) writes:
The mood is certainly better than last year, when the world was ending, but it is worse than at the beginning of last week. Alessandro Profumo of Unicredit acutely observed that Davos is likely to accentuate whatever mood you arrived in, rather as alcohol does, I guess. So those who arrived nervous about the economic prospects are leaving even more jittery. If you arrived feeling pessimistic, you will leave somewhere between suicidal and homicidal.
The market background has not helped. Anxiety about Greece has grown over the past three days. In the circumstances, it was strange to see both the Greek prime minister and his finance minister here. Maybe the subtext was to show that there can be no crisis if they are munching muesli in the mountains, but though some may have been reassured, more people asked who was at home minding the taverna.
…
Tags: Cramer, Davies, Davos, Gates, Greece, Roubini, Sarkozy, Sorrell, Stiglitz, Whitbread
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by Phil - January 21st, 2010 8:26 am
After what looked like a good recovery, there are signs that Northeast Manufacturing is in shap decline.
Jobless numbers are on the upswing as temporary holiday hiring is being trimmed faster than census jobs can pick up the slack. We had a big build in inventories in Q4 as clearly manufacturers were overly optimistic and a sharp rise in commodity prices during the quarter didn’t help much either. We get the official report at 10am today and the most optimistic expectations have us down about 10% from last month’s 20.4 reading so we can expect today’s report to move the market one way or the other.
Not to worry though because, as Jonathan Weil points out in Bloomberg today, "the fix is in" on Wall Street as the 10-member Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has been given 11 months and $8M to examine the causes of the financial crisis, including Fannie Mae’s 2008 meltdown and the near-deaths of at least 10 other major financial institutions, including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., American International Group Inc. and Citigroup. The statute that created the commission says its report specifically must tackle the role of regulators, monetary policy, accounting practices, tax policy, fraud, capital requirements, credit raters, executive pay, derivatives and short selling — plus a dozen other required areas of study.
Wow, that’s a lot of ground to cover! To put in perspective what a joke this is, Weil points out that when Fannie Mae hired former U.S. Senator Warren Rudman in 2004 to investigate how its accounting practices had gone awry, his law firm’s final report took 17 months to complete and cost the company more than $60 Million. $60M in 2004 to investigate ONE firm over 17 months and Congress has allocated $8M over 11 months to investigate a DOZEN firms as well as get an overview of the entire financial system. What are the odds the commission can conduct all these investigations by mid-December and do a thorough job? About zero, which clearly was Congress’s intent all along. If this is a joke, it’s a bad one and it’s on US!
This is why we’re bullish on the markets (or the market manipulators, at least) - fundamentals don’t matter! The banksters have taken control of government and are flat out laughing at us, the citizens of the US (and the world) as we cry "foul" and try to reign in the madness. This is not just a…
Tags: China GDP, DIA, GS, Jobs, Roubini, Whitney
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by Phil - July 17th, 2009 8:10 am
"And now we’re back where we started,
Here we go round again.
Day after day I get up and I say
I better do it again.
Where are all the people going?
Round and round till we reach the end.
One day leading to another,
Get up, go out, do it again." – Kinks
That’s right, we often talk about various market scams but there is no bigger scam in the world than options expiration day when all the stocks are herded back to prices that benefit the largest number of SELLERS of options while the buyers of options can only stare in shock as momentum shifts and trend-lines break and stock after stock magically settles into a value that wipes out the most possible premium. There is something in options called the "Max Pain Theory" that says that stocks will always settle at the strike where the most puts and calls expire worthless but I think that’s a self-fulfilling prophesy as options activity tends to center around the strike as it moves so of course the strike is surrounded by the most options.
What isn’t a theory is what we can observe happening time and again. This is why, at PSW, we primarily SELL options, not buy them. Buying options is gambling, selling options is a business! I often point out to members that options is the game in the world where you can be the "house" with no disadvantage. In Las Vegas, you can bet with the house but they still have an edge but in options, there is no edge and day’s like this remind us why selling options beats buying them – not EVERY time but certainly OVER time.
Our last option expiration day was June 19th and I will give you today’s levels to watch because they are the levels of June 19th: Dow 8,540, S&P 921, Nasdaq 1,827, NYSE 5,934 and Russell 512. All the markets have to do to take out the calls sold that day for a nickel or a dime is to hit those levels at some time today. Of course, anything within 2.5% of those numbers is fine to as you can roll the calls you sold to the next month at no cost, collecting another premium for another month. This is the centerpiece of our Buy/Write strategy,…
Tags: BAC, C, CVX, GE, GOOG, Roubini, XOM
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by ilene - June 16th, 2009 9:55 pm
Courtesy of Jay Yarow at ClusterStock’s GreenSheet
Nouriel Roubini proclaimed that oil prices ran "too high, too soon" when they doubled in just three months.
The run up in oil in the past few months has been driven by a weakened dollar and a belief that recovery is just around the corner. The dollar has been gaining the past few days and the price of oil has slipped. Roubini sees deflation and pressure on the dollar in the next two years, which could lead to the price of oil sliding.
As for the economic recovery? Don’t bet on it says Roubini. If it happens by year end it will be weak. There’s even a chance for a double-dip recession, which means the whole thing comes crashing down once again and the predictions of $85 oil go out the window.
See Also:
Tags: economic recovery, Oil, oil prices, Roubini, weak dollar
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February 11th, 2012 11:02 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a "mere" €130 billion. Alas we have new for you - as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion, €175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in sto...
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February 11th, 2012 10:35 am
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market.
The OEXA is used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever? for a discussion of this technical tool.
The chart below is current through the February 3rd close.
After a major S&P correction, the conditions for safe re-entry into the market are when:
a) $OEXA200R rises above 65%. And two of the following three...
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February 11th, 2012 3:28 am
Violent Protests in Greece; 6 Cabinet Members Resign; LAOS leader "I Would Rather Starve Than be Under German Jackboot"; Controversy Over Missing Paragraphs
Courtesy of Mish
Imagine you are asked to sign a document but three pages were missing. Further imagine the documents you were asked to sign were written in English but you only speak Greek. Would you sign?
That is exactly the predicament Greek officials were placed in by the Troika. Here is the story sent to me by Demetri Kofinas at Capital Account.
Hello Mish
George Karatzaferis leader of LOAS political party gave a speech today addressing why he refused to sign this latest agreement. In his speech, he said that he a...
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February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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About Phil:
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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