Despite the cornucopia of costly bailouts, the billions in borrowed money being scattered about like candy, the quick fixes like cash-for-clunkers, the junk-led surge in stocks and the accompanying euphoria on Wall Street, the distorted data points, and the relentless spin coming from the powers that be, most Americans simply aren’t buying the so-called recovery story.
Is it because they are not paying attention? Or is it because the "little people" — as the now departed Manhattan hotelier and real-estate magnate Leona Helmsley once referred to average Joes — have their eyes wide open to the disturbing reality that still surrounds us? You know my answer, of course.
Most small business owners remain cautious in their economic outlook, with more than two-thirds saying the recession is not over for them, according to this month’s Discover Small Business Watch index released on Monday.
In addition, more than half of owners rate the economy as poor, up from 48 percent in August. Only 10 percent said it’s excellent or good.
That’s a change after three consecutive months of gains. The index fell 2.1 points to 87.7 in September from August. The latest Discover index is based on a random telephone survey of 750 U.S. small business owners who have less than five employees and 3,000 consumers.
Ryan Scully, director of Discover’s business credit card, called it more of a pause than a reversal of recent trends. Many people “are eager for a definitive signal that the economy is on the mend, but America’s small business owners aren’t sending that message yet,” he said.
The outlook for the rest of the year isn’t much better. Nearly half of small business owners expect the fourth quarter to be worse than a year earlier, according to the index. Thirty percent expect no change and 21 percent expecting a year-over-year improvement.
Small businesses still struggle to control operating costs. The report shows that half of small business owners say they plan to cut spending on business development, such as advertising, inventory and capital expenditures,…
According to the experts, things are looking up. Central bankers have expressed "growing confidence…that the worst of the financial crisis [is] over and that a global economic recovery [is] beginning to take shape." A well known strategist asserts that the "recession is ending ‘right now.’" President Obama has said "the economy is ‘pointed in the right direction.’"
Small-business owners aren’t convinced the recession is ending and their outlooks darkened in July, according to a monthly survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business.
NFIB’s index of small-business indicators fell 1.3 points last month to 86.5, the second consecutive monthly decline. The biggest reason was a drop in the number of small-business owners who expect the economy to improve in the next six months.
“The recession is wearing Main Street folks down,” says Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “And unfortunately, lawmakers in Washington are doing more to scare small-business owners than to reassure them of an economic recovery.”
Small-business owners are worried about higher taxes and proposed mandates to provide health insurance, Dunkelberg says. Taxes were cited as the No. 1 business problem by 22 percent of the small-business owners surveyed.
A bigger problem, cited by 32 percent, was poor sales.
Hmmm, I wonder which group -- those who are supposedly in the know or those who are struggling to get by -- is living in the economic no-spin zone?
The absurd “War on Gold” that India has launched this year has been covered many times on this site. From the moment I read about it, it was obvious that if Indians want their gold, the Indians will have their gold. You can’t break thousands of years of tradition and culture because of the ignorant whims of a few bureaucrats.
Earlier today, Reuters published an article detailing the exten...
One of my favorite long-term economic indicators has been the historical pattern of vehicle miles driven. I post a monthly update on the topic shortly after the Department of Transportation's Office of Highway Information publishes its latest data on Traffic Volume Trends.
My preferred way to analyze the data is on a per-capita basis, so I was particularly interested in a study release earlier today by U.S. PRIG on the decline of driving in major cities.
Here is an excerpt from the press release:
The report, "Transportation in Transition: A Look at Changing Travel Patterns in America's Biggest Cities," is ba...
GES – Guess? Inc. – Shares in apparel and accessories retailer Guess are trading lower on Wednesday ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. Options changing hands on the stock during morning trading indicates some traders are bracing for shares to potentially drop to the lowest level since early-October by December expiration. The stock currently trades down 2.0% on the day at $33.24 just before 11:30 a.m. EST.
Around 1,700 of the Dec $29 strike put options have changed hands on GES so far today, more than two time...
It was anything but boring cooking the books to make Bernard Madoff's returns seem smooth and steady, the arch-fraudster's former CFO testified yesterday.
Frank DiPascali, in his first day on the stand in the trial of five former Madoff employees, said that each of them were intimately involved in deceiving Madoff's investors and regulators—a deception that kept the wraps on a $65 billion Ponzi scheme for decades. DiPascali, who worked for Madoff for more than 30 years, told the jury that the fraud went on "as far back as I can remember" and that "it was virtually impossible not to know what was happening."
The five former employees—Daniel Bonventre, Annette Bongiorno, Joann Crupi, Jerome O'Hara and George Perez—have said that they had no idea Madoff was a...
Higher One Holdings (NYSE: ONE) announced that Company Co-Founders Miles Lasater and Mark Volchek and the Board of Directors have initiated a succession plan to bring the next level of senior leadership into the Company. The Board of Directors is forming a search committee and has selected the executive recruiting firm of Spencer Stuart to conduct a search for a new CEO. Mr. Volchek will continue in his role as CEO, will assume the duties of President effective January 10, 2014 and remains on the Board of Directors. Additionally, Mr. Volchek intends to work
Repeating Friday’s market performance, today, the S&P 500 sold off in the last 30 to 40 minutes, giving up its entire daily gain for a loss of 0.27%. Nevertheless, it did gain 0.1% last week for its eighth consecutive weekly gain.
The Small-cap Growth style/cap was the leader last week, gaining 1.58% and raising its leading one-year gains to 43.67%. The growth style continued to dominate value in all three major market cap ranges. Value delivered a negative performance for the week in both large- and mid-caps. (See market stats.)
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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These rallies are becoming familiar. In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up, early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak). It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE. So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
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Come and get it! Read all about it! Biotechs, biotechs and more biotechs to buy buy buy for your portfolio! To date, almost 30 biotech companies have hit the market. Most of the time, there are fewer than 10-12!
For the last five years, biotechs have had issues obtaining offer prices above expectations. In 2013, that trend looks to be broken. According to BiotechNow, the offer prices are 4% above expectations! In addition, biotechs are going public with little more than a wing and a prayer (pre-clinical or Phase 1 data only). Really? What this means is that the drug or technology looks good in mice, rats, or dogs, etc, but there is no smidgen of evidence that it will work in humans. That's what is called an appitite for RISK!
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