Posts Tagged ‘Small-business owners’

What Do They Know, Anyway?

What Do They Know, Anyway?

Courtesy of Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon

SKEPTIC Pictures, Images and Photos

Despite the cornucopia of costly bailouts, the billions in borrowed money being scattered about like candy, the quick fixes like cash-for-clunkers, the junk-led surge in stocks and the accompanying euphoria on Wall Street, the distorted data points, and the relentless spin coming from the powers that be, most Americans simply aren’t buying the so-called recovery story.

Is it because they are not paying attention? Or is it because the "little people" — as the now departed Manhattan hotelier and real-estate magnate Leona Helmsley once referred to average Joes — have their eyes wide open to the disturbing reality that still surrounds us? You know my answer, of course.

Regardless, The Dallas Morning News reports on the latest group of genuinely hard-working Americans to make their less-than-upbeat feelings known in "Survey: Most Small Business Owners Say Recession Isn’t Over For Them":

Most small business owners remain cautious in their economic outlook, with more than two-thirds saying the recession is not over for them, according to this month’s Discover Small Business Watch index released on Monday.

In addition, more than half of owners rate the economy as poor, up from 48 percent in August. Only 10 percent said it’s excellent or good.

That’s a change after three consecutive months of gains. The index fell 2.1 points to 87.7 in September from August. The latest Discover index is based on a random telephone survey of 750 U.S. small business owners who have less than five employees and 3,000 consumers.

Ryan Scully, director of Discover’s business credit card, called it more of a pause than a reversal of recent trends. Many people “are eager for a definitive signal that the economy is on the mend, but America’s small business owners aren’t sending that message yet,” he said.

The outlook for the rest of the year isn’t much better. Nearly half of small business owners expect the fourth quarter to be worse than a year earlier, according to the index. Thirty percent expect no change and 21 percent expecting a year-over-year improvement.

Small businesses still struggle to control operating costs. The report shows that half of small business owners say they plan to cut spending on business development, such as advertising, inventory and capital expenditures,…
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Economic No Spin Zone

Economic No Spin Zone

Courtesy of Michael Panzner at Financial Armageddon

According to the experts, things are looking up. Central bankers have expressed "growing confidence…that the worst of the financial crisis [is] over and that a global economic recovery [is] beginning to take shape." A well known strategist asserts that the "recession is ending ‘right now.’" President Obama has said "the economy is ‘pointed in the right direction.’"

However, consumers aren’t so convinced. Homeowners and young job seekers aren’t buying it, either. Nor are those who battle it out each day on Main Street’s front lines, as the Charlotte Business Journal reveals in "Small-Business Owners’ Outlook Dims":

Small-business owners aren’t convinced the recession is ending and their outlooks darkened in July, according to a monthly survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business.

NFIB’s index of small-business indicators fell 1.3 points last month to 86.5, the second consecutive monthly decline. The biggest reason was a drop in the number of small-business owners who expect the economy to improve in the next six months.

“The recession is wearing Main Street folks down,” says Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “And unfortunately, lawmakers in Washington are doing more to scare small-business owners than to reassure them of an economic recovery.”

Small-business owners are worried about higher taxes and proposed mandates to provide health insurance, Dunkelberg says. Taxes were cited as the No. 1 business problem by 22 percent of the small-business owners surveyed.

A bigger problem, cited by 32 percent, was poor sales.

Hmmm, I wonder which group -- those who are supposedly in the know or those who are struggling to get by -- is living in the economic no-spin zone?


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Phil's Favorites

19 Things That Actually Happened in 1999

 

19 Things That Actually Happened in 1999

Courtesy of MICHAEL JOHNSTON at Dividend Reference

The happenings on Wall Street in 1999 prove that sometimes truth is stranger than fiction.

Although the events of 1999 are ancient history by many standards, some very clear memories no doubt remain for many investors. With technology and biotech stocks once again hot, a number of comparisons to the last bubble have been made. But the current environment can’t come close to matching 1999, either in terms of valuations or in the sheer madness of the markets.

Below are 19 events that...



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Zero Hedge

Do Not Show This Chart To Bank Of Japan Governor Kuroda

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As another example of "has the world gone mad?" - we present the following words of wisdom from BoJ Governor Kuroda-san:

  • *KURODA DOESN'T SEE ANY ASSET BUBBLE OR STOCK MARKET BUBBLE, OR ANY 'FINANCIAL EXCESS' IN ECONOMY

And in the interests of sanity, we highly suggest he not look at the chart below...

And while on the topic of utter insanity, ask yourself - as you read his statements of perplexing blind ignorance - just what happens to BoJ capital when his $95 billion equity portfolio suffers a 2%, 10%, 50% sell-off?

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Super strong Health care ETF near another breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE

When one looks back over the past year, Health Care ETF (XLV) has been a good place to be. The above table looks at the 9 key sectors of the S&P 500, which reflects that XLV has done really well, grabbing the #1 spot over this time frame. Year-To-Date, XLV remains in the top spot as well.

Can this hot performance continue? Check out the pattern XLV has been forming the past few months

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 90-days, XLV remains at the top spot as well, up a little over 2...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 26, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Last week we remarked how the S&P 500 finally had broken out of a multi month range… but then it did little.  Usually once a stock/ETF moves out of a long range it has a pronounced move; but the S&P 500 didn’t – it barely budged.  Today that move collapsed.  The S&P 500 fell 1.03% and the NASDAQ 1.11%.   Most pointed to some vague increase in a chance of a rate hike but this is too much tea leaving – the Federal Reserve has said everything is data dependent.

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Tuesday that markets should not be surprised by the timing or pace of rate hikes.

In economic news, durable goods for April showed a decline of 0.5 percent, roughly in-line with expectations. Non-defense...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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