Strategists Take To Goldman Weekly Call And Put Options
by Option Review - October 11th, 2011 1:37 pm
Today’s tickers: GS, SNE, INTC & GNW
GS - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Shares in Goldman Sachs staged an intra-session comeback after opening lower on Tuesday. The stock is currently up 1.5% at $97.56 after earlier rising to $98.81, the highest since September 29. Call buyers tackling weekly options on Goldman may profit if the stock extends gains through expiration on Friday. A combined 7,000 calls changed hands at the Oct. ’14 $100 and $105 strikes, topping open interest levels in each case. Buyers are more active than sellers thus far in the session, with traders paying an average premium of $1.17 and $0.29 per contract for the $100 and $105 strike contracts, respectively. Bulls are not alone in populating short-term contracts, however, as demand for weekly puts is growing, as well. The Oct. ’14 $95 strike put is most active, with volume exceeding 3,200 lots against open interest of 808 contracts in early-afternoon trade. Put buyers shelled out an average premium of $1.90 per contract. Investors long the put options profit at expiration if shares in GS drop 4.6% to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $93.10. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports earnings on Thursday ahead of the opening bell. Shares in GS may respond in kind to JPM’s report, either to the upside or the downside, as investors search for signals ahead of the banking institution’s own earnings announcement one week from today. Options traders have exchanged more than 50,000 contracts on the stock as of 12:50 pm in New York.
SNE - Sony Corp. – A burst of fresh call activity on Sony Corp today suggests at least one options strategist is positioning for the price of the consumer electronics maker’s shares to rebound during the next several months. Shares in Sony rose 3.25%…
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DiggBulls Eye Rebound For Shares In Toyota, Sony
by Option Review - September 9th, 2011 2:11 pm
Today’s tickers: TM, ANF, MUR & SNE
TM - Toyota Motor Corp. – A bull call spread on automaker, Toyota Motor Corp., sees the stock potentially rallying nearly 11.0% by October expiration. Shares in the Japanese car company fell 2.4% this morning to $67.70, bringing the stock’s total decline since July 21 up to 20.0%. The bullish spread on Toyota involved the purchase of 2,500 calls at the Sept. $70 strike for a premium of $1.90 each, and the sale of the same number of calls up at the Sept. $75 strike at a premium of $0.49 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $1.41 per contract, thus positioning the investor to profit should TM’s shares rise 5.5% over the current price of $67.70 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $71.41 at expiration. The spread prepares the options player to pocket maximum potential profits of $3.59 per contract at expiration in October should shares in the automaker jump 10.8% to trade above $75.00. A third leg of 2,500 calls in play on TM today suggest that the investor responsible for the debit spread may also be adjusting a previously established bullish stance on the stock. The 2,500 calls exchanged at the Sept. $72.5 strike for a premium of $0.13 each may be a closing sale. Open interest in the Sept. $72.5 strike call indicates the same number of contracts were purchased for a premium of $1.81 each back on August 22. Those calls were marked as part of a spread. Perhaps the investor is giving up on the near-term pop required to push those calls in-the-money by next Friday, in favor of the October call spread. Options implied volatility on Toyota rose 7.5% this afternoon to stand at 33.17% by 12:55 pm ET.
ANF - Abercrombie…
Options Combo-Play Sees Multi-Year Highs Ahead For Electronic Arts
by Option Review - July 15th, 2011 5:36 pm
Today’s tickers: ERTS, SNE, EAT & ETR
ERTS - Electronic Arts, Inc. – Shares in the video game developer may rally to their highest in more than two years by January 2013 expiration according to three-legged bullish plays initiated in Electronic Arts options this morning. Earlier this week the company announced an agreement to acquire PopCap Games, which makes games for mobile phones, tablets, PCs and social networking sites, in a cash and stock deal valued at up to $1.3 billion. Shares in Electronic Arts are currently up 0.50% to arrive at $23.63 as of 11:30 am ET. Long-term bullish investors eyeing fresh multi-year highs by Jan. 2013 expiration appear to have sold put options on the stock in order to partially offset the cost of debit call spreads. Traders sold around 5,000 puts at the Jan. 2013 $17.5 strike at an average premium of $1.42 each, purchased around the same number of calls up at the Jan. 2013 $25 strike for an average premium of $3.67 per contract, and sold some 5,000 calls at the Jan. 2013 $30 strike at an average premium of $1.97 a-pop. Average net premium paid to initiate the three-way trade amounts to just $0.28 per contract. Investors employing the strategy profit if shares in Electronic Arts rally 7.0% to exceed the average breakeven price of $25.28 by expiration day in more than one year. Maximum potential profits of $4.72 per contract are available on the spread in the event that shares in the interactive entertainment provider jump 27.0% to trade above $30.00 at expiration in January 2013. The company’s first-quarter earnings report is expected to hit the stands after the final bell on August 2.
SNE - Sony Corp. – Call activity on the designer and manufacturer of electronic equipment and devices suggests some strategists are positioning for shares in the Tokyo, Japan-based company to rally substantially by October expiration. Sony’s shares suffered following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami in its home country. A number of…
FinReg Friday – Goldman Gets a Wrist Slap and BP Stops the Flow!
by Phil - July 16th, 2010 8:24 am
Dip, what dip?
I didn’t see any dip, what dip are you talkin’ about? Oil spill? I don’t see no oil spilling, do you? Goldman did what? They’re regulating who? Fuhgeddaboudit! That’s right markets, move along, nothing to see here. In fact, exactly as we predicted since the market first started dropping – it’s all just noise in between options expiration days, a way to traumatize the retail suckers who run in and out of positions under the direction of their chosen media messiahs. Clearly most market analysis is nothing more than "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
If you think this chart looks a little like someone is laughing at you – you are not being paraniod. This smiley face pattern is bought to you by the chart painters at GS and the rest of the Gang of 12 and their media lapdogs who push and pull the markets around on a daily basis. I asked back on the 6th, when I very accurately called for a "Turnaround Tuesday – Will CNBC Apologize to America?" as I pointed out the ridiculous degree of negativity that had contributed to the mini crash, which I had predicted on Monday the 21st, when my 9:40 Alert to Members said:
Good morning!
I have to go with my gut initially and stick to our plan, which is roll up the USO and DIA short plays (rolling the open puts to higher strikes) and, if the Dow holds 10,500 and USO holds $36 ($80 oil), we’ll have to sell June puts and roll our puts to a longer month – hoping for a post-holiday sell-off.
Upside levels are 50 dmas at: Dow 10,600, S&P 1,140, Nasdaq 2,350, NYSE 7,130, Russell 683, SOX 366 (already over), Transports 2,130, Oil $78 and Gold $1,200 (already over). Anything less than that is just a move to the top of our range and then we can expect a nice pullback by Wednesday.
Obviously, it’s a great time to add some disaster hedges, I now like selling TZA $6 puts for .45 and buying the TZA $6/8 bull call spread for .50 and that’s net .05 on the $2 spread so even if you have to margin $3,000 for 10 short TZA puts, the $450 you collect plus another $50 buys you $2,000 worth of downside insurance.
I like those DIA June
…
Which Way Wednesday – Topping or Popping?
by Phil - July 14th, 2010 8:14 am
Wheee, what a ride!
We only had one trade idea for Members all day Monday and that was the DIA $103 calls for .52 from the 9:46 Alert. It is extremely rare that we only have one trade in a day but there really wasn’t anything for us to do as we had been BUYBUYBUYing all last week so there was nothing to do but watch. The calls finished yesterday at $1.12 for a nice 115% gain in 24 hours but we took the money and ran at 10:04 on a spike up to $1.25 because it’s too close to expirations to mess around. They actually topped out at $1.55 near the close but - better safe than sorry. Anyway, we replaced them with IWM calls later in the day and those doubled up and we were out at the close – again, it just doesn’t pay to be greedy.
It’s fun to day trade options on expiration weeks because the premiums go way down and we get fantastic leverage. Our longer-term trades turned mixed for the first time in 2 weeks (we had been 100% bullish) and we went from one to a dozen trade ideas a day as we used DXD for an overall hedge and took bullish positions on AAPL (2), GOOG (2), INTC, T, TZA (which is really a bearish position) and bearish positions on DIA (2) and MA. Of course ALL of our bullish plays were hedged already so the mix was a real indication of how exhausted the rally was starting to look.
Too much, too fast was the watchword for Tuesday as we were already up 5% for the week so we expected a gap fill back to the open (didn’t come yet) before we get serious about taking out our levels (Dow 10,290, S&P 1,102, Nas 2,257, NYSE 6,930 and RUT 651). We expected good news from INTC (we did a bullish ratio spread aimed at $22) and now we’ll see if it’s good enough to get the Nas up to 2,257 but it was the NYSE that worried us yesterday as they were close but no cigar at our 6,930 target.
Gap filling would be nice and normal and would take us back to test Dow 10,200, S&P 1,075, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800 and Russell 620. If we can show a little support there and consolidate for the next run, we’ll be in pretty good shape to continue this run but FIRST we have to test them WITHOUT everyone freaking out and…
Options Strategist Portends Big Rebound at Anadarko by Jan. 2011 Expiration
by Option Review - June 17th, 2010 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: APC, FSLR, SFY, V, XRT, NFLX, DV, MTB, SWY & SNE
APC – Anadarko Petroleum Corp. – Trading in longer-dated call options on Anadarko Petroleum this afternoon indicates one options strategist is expecting shares of the independent oil and gas exploration and production company to rebound significantly by expiration in January 2011. APC’s shares rallied 1.5% at the start of the trading session to reach an intraday high of $43.70. However, as the day progressed, shares lost momentum and are currently down 3.90% on the day at $41.38 with 45 minutes remaining before the closing bell. The long-term bullish player appears to have enacted a ratio call spread, buying 2,000 in-the-money calls at the January 2011 $40 strike for a hefty premium of $10.30 apiece, and selling 4,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $55 strike for a premium of $3.60 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to $3.10 per contract. Therefore, the trader is poised to profit should shares of the underlying stock rebound 4.15% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $43.10 by January expiration. The investor stands ready to accrue maximum potential profits of $11.90 per contract in the event that APC’s shares surge 32.9% from the current price of $41.38 to settle at $55.00 by expiration day.
FSLR – First Solar, Inc. – Bullish options players dominated activity on the manufacturer of photovoltaic solar power systems today with shares of the underlying stock rallying sharply by as much as 5.98% this morning to an intraday high of $125.88, the highest the stock has been in one month. The maker of solar modules was raised to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ at Credit Suisse today where analysts upped their target price on the stock to $150.00 from $110.20. First Solar’s shares tapered off by late afternoon to stand 3.50% higher on the day at $122.93 just before 3:30 pm (ET). Investors positioning for continued upward movement in FSLR’s shares by June expiration purchased at least 1,300 calls at the June $125 strike for an average premium of $1.72 apiece. Call buyers at this strike price make money only if shares of the underlying stock trade above the average breakeven price of $126.72 by expiration tomorrow. Buying interest spread to the higher June $130 strike where roughly 1,100 call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.42 per contract. First Solar’s share price would need…
The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!
by Phil - June 6th, 2010 8:27 am
$10,500.
That is the per capita average GDP for the 6Bn ape-like creatures on this planet who have pockets and purses. Of the still hairy and pocketless apes, there are only about 1M left and they are mainly prisoners so we won’t be worrying about them but it would be nice to consider the plight of our ancestors once in a while… Anyway, so 6Bn of us fill in those last 3 images in the planetary labor pool with the vast majority of us STILL FARMING and, of course, a select group of us are still hunting and gathering and contributing very little to the GDP.
None of our problems are new – as noted in this 2005 cartoon:
The United States of America with it’s highly evolved population of shopoholics has a per capita GDP of $46,381 – VERY IMPRESSIVE but we rank 6th! Brunei does a little better than we do and Singapore is up at $50,523 (so let’s hear it for corporal punishment) and Norway (one of my top choices of countries to flee to when it all hits the fan) is at $52,561 but Luxembourgh ($78,395 – banking) and Qatar ($83,841 – oil) simply trounce us in earnings power per person. For those of you who like to think Capitalism is all about keeping score – they must be better than you because they make more money, right?
Below the US, per capita GDP drops off fairly quickly. Rounding out the top 10 are Switzerland ($43,007 – watches and more bankers), Hong Kong ($42,748 – don’t tell China!), Netherlands ($39,938 – legal drugs!), Ireland ($39,468 – free beer when on wellfare!) and Australia ($38,911 – beer comes in oil cans plus gigantic bouncing rats). 20th on the list is Germany at $34,212, Greece is 25th at $29,882 (but not for long), 30th is South Korea at $27,978, 40th is Slovakia at $21,245. Lithuania comes in at 50 with $16,542 (1 ahead of Russia) and it steadies out there with emerging market star Brazil in 75th place with $10,514 and, keep in mind – that is where you FINALLY get to the average leverl of economic activity for the world.
Another BRIC in the global wall is mighty China, with a per capita GDP of $6,567 for each of their 1.2Bn persons and India’s Billion people average out at less than half of that, at $2,941, ranking 128th and still ahead of 53…
Which Way Wednesday – World of Worries Weighs on Wall Street
by Phil - March 10th, 2010 7:33 am
7 W’s in the title - that has to be some kind of alliterative record!
What could we possibly be worried about with the market making new highs? Well, I’m a little concerned that Shanghai housing prices fell 10% in a week. That’s the kind of behavior that may make you think they may have a bit of a bubble that’s popping. Of course they held up well compared to Shenzhen, where prices dropped 14% in the first week of March. That was matched by a 14% decline in iron ore shipments from Australia as China’s demand fell from 11M tons in January to 8.7M tons in February. So, if you were wondering how much China’s $600Bn stimulus spending was affecting their economy – 14% is the effect of them simply slowing it down a little.
Japanese Machinery Orders fell 3.7% in January and Producer Prices fell a deflationary 1.5% in the World’s second-largest economy (for now). “The gap between supply and demand in the domestic economy has yet to shrink,” said Morita at Barclays Capital. “It’ll be very difficult for companies to pass on those costs. That’s not good for their profits.” The Baltic Dry Index is topping out just over our 3,200 target, signaling a possible end to the great commodity run of 2010. Devan Kaloo, head of Aberdeen’s Global Emerging Markets is predicting that emerging markets (we are long EDZ, now $47) may fall as much as 15% this year. “The markets will see a correction this year,” Kaloo, whose Aberdeen Emerging Markets Institutional Fund has beaten 93 percent of competitors in 2010, said in an interview in New York. “People get over-optimistic and expect too much out of earnings and global growth.”
Sure, I know I’ve been saying this for a while but it sounds so much more official when a guy in charge of $22Bn says it! China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, coupled with record bank lending in 2009, helped the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rally 80 percent last year. The gauge has dropped 6.4 percent in 2010. “From a stock-picking perspective, we can find better opportunities” than China, Kaloo said. “The government pumped money into the financial system, but soon they’ll run out of money,” which will hurt the earnings of Chinese companies.
Amazingly, much of the tech growth we’re seeing in Asia is resulting from a mad rush to produce 3-D TVs in time for the holidays – something I believe may…
Cisco Call Options Fly off the Shelves
by Option Review - March 8th, 2010 4:06 pm
Today’s tickers: CSCO, DRYS, CIGX, AES, V, MCD, BIIB, SNE, GME & VALE
CSCO – Cisco Systems, Inc. – Bullish call-buying dominated options trading patterns on Cisco today on news the firm is slated to “make a significant announcement that will forever change the internet and its impact on consumers, businesses and governments.” Cisco’s shares jumped 4.15% to a new 52-week high of $26.25 during the session on a target share price upgrade to $28.00 from $26.00 at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bullish traders purchased approximately 15,800 in-the-money calls at the March $26 strike for a premium of $0.33 apiece and coveted 9,300 calls at the higher March $27 strike for an average premium of $0.10 each. Uber-bullish individuals bought 4,000 calls at the March $28 strike for just two pennies premium per contract. Investors long the closest-to-the-money March $26 strike calls are positioned to accrue profits if Cisco’s shares trade above $26.33 ahead of expiration day. The surge in demand for options on the stock as well as uncertainty surrounding tomorrow’s announcement lifted the reading of overall options implied volatility on Cisco by 17.5% to 22.85% in afternoon trading.
DRYS – DryShips, Inc. – Dry-bulk shipping company, DryShips, Inc., experienced a short-lived dip in the price of its shares in morning trading, but regained its footing this afternoon, rallying 7.77% to $6.10 with about forty minutes remaining in the session. Call-buying action flooded DRYS today with approximately 22,300 now in-the-money calls picked up at the near-term March $6 strike for an average premium of $0.22 apiece. Nearly 12,000 calls were coveted at the higher March $7 strike for $0.05 premium per contract. Optimism spread to the same strike prices in the April contract, as well. Investors secured roughly 11,600 long in-the-money calls at the April $6 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each. Traders bought another 4,000 call options at the higher April $7 strike for $0.16 per contract. Options traders exchanged more than 130,000 contracts on DryShips during the session, which represents about 27% of total existing open interest on the stock of 480,443 contracts. Options implied volatility jumped approximately 34.8% this afternoon to 60.26%.
CIGX – Star Scientific, Inc. – Shares of the maker of dissolvable smokeless tobacco products surged 6.70% to $1.12 today, inspiring one investor to establish a bullish risk reversal on the stock in the August contract. The trader appears to have sold…
Thursday – Greece is the Word
by Phil - February 4th, 2010 8:29 am
Greece is the word these days.
We are getting a sell-off every morning as Europe goes through the daily ritual of waking up and seeing the cost of default protection rise and rise. This morning Greece is with STUPID (Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy & Dubai – coined by Zero Hedge) as five-year sovereign credit default swap spreads were recently at 4.23 percentage points, compared with Wednesday’s closing level of 3.97 percentage points. That means the annual cost of insuring €10 million of Greek government debt against default for five years had risen €26,000 to €423,000. In a nutshell, that’s 4.23% annually to insure Greek bonds from default so Greece needs to offer 4.23% more interest on their bonds than an Aaa nation to attract investors.
Of course, my new "I’m with STUPID" T-shirt franchise is going like gangbusters as we are getting orders from all over the US, especially California, as our own triple-A credit rating may not last the year. Japan is a strong customer (mostly small and extra-small) and sales are strong in France and, of course, Mexico and all of South America.
Keeping up with the STUPIDs is no easy feat as Portugal’s CDS spreads jumped 15% overnight to an all-time high 2.26 while Spain gained 10% to 1.68%. (Have I mentioned I like TBT lately?) The moves followed news Wednesday that the European Commission had put Greece under more pressure to cut its deficit; that the Portuguese government sold only €300 million of treasury bills at an auction, compared with an indicative offer of €500 Million; and that the Spanish government had raised its budget deficit forecasts for 2010 through 2012.
As we expected in yesterday’s post, Greek workers were none too pleased with the EU’s budget plan for their country and is rejecting the idea of wage freezes on top of wage cuts. Greece’s biggest union is moving towards a mass strike and the public-employee union is planning a job action next week as well. Tax collectors are striking, customs workers are striking, which is screwing up the airports and shipyards and delaying commerce all over Europe – shades of things to come perhaps?
Napoleon said: "A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonetes" and John Kennedy said: "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable" and what we are seeing here is backlash as workers of the world have been pushed…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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