SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts
by Chart School - October 20th, 2010 10:18 pm
SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
Meanwhile the financial sector is imploding because of the continual revelations of pervasive mortgage fraud.
It will be interesting to see if the PPT can hold things together until the November elections in the States.
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DiggSP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts
by Chart School - September 23rd, 2010 3:15 pm
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
SP 500
Except for perhaps some hedging or a daily ‘skin’ this is not a market to be shorted until the uptrend is broken. It is drifting higher on a steady short squeeze and light volumes in the kind of artificial action that is reminiscent of the 2004-2006 reflationary stock market rally fueled by Fed easy money.
An event can bring it down and quickly. But one can burn a lot of cash trying to pick a top ahead of the market signal that it has gone far enough. I do think that the two gaps will be filled, and that this market will retest its lows again. The timing is problematic, especially given the upcoming November elections. No president or Congress wishes to go into an important general election on the heels of a stock market crash. But this could serve the desires of those on Wall Street. So a continued rally is hardly a ‘sure thing’ despite the statistical profile of the SP 500 in the second year of a presidential term.
The SP 500 is up against resistance but the NDX has broken out cleanly. With relatively few risk-comparable productive outlets the excess of the easy money being fed to the Wall Street banks by the Fed is flowing into the higher yielding ‘risk trades’ like junk bonds and equities. In the absence of a strongly directive fiscal policy and honest price discovery this is what happens when monetary stimulus is applied without a broader policy support. It is hard for real economic proposals to compete with a Ponzi scheme that insiders control and that has a de facto sanction and subsidy from the governing authority. And this then is the basis for Obama’s failure most likely sourced in his Wall Street friendly advisors, Summers and Geithner, and his own natural tendency to ‘go along to get along’ and sacrifice principle to expediency. This potential strength, the ability to find and form a consensus, can become a tragic flaw when carried to excess.
The NDX is a more obvious example of this reflationary risk trade.
NDX
Before the deluge
by Chart School - September 23rd, 2010 12:32 pm
Before the deluge
Courtesy of Allan
A great Jackson Browne song, before the deluge is what the following S&P weekly chart is suggesting may be the resolution of the past five months of pathetic sideways price movement:
Note the sideways pattern in mid-2007 lasting from August to December. The resolution was a 50% haircut in the SPX. Fast forward to 2010 and we see a similar sideways pattern lasting an almost identical 5 months. Notice how the SPX Trend Model remained SHORT in both instances, early in both and in retrospect, quite handy in the wake of prices eventually breaking down in late 2007.
The window is open for a repeat performance. [However]
Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For more details, read this introductory article.
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Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement
by ilene - September 13th, 2010 9:09 pm
Market Still Deluding Itself That It Can Escape The Inevitable Dénouement
Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box
One of my favorite analysts is Albert Edwards of Societe Generale in London. Acerbic, witty and brilliant. Emphasis on brilliant. The fact that he is a Doppelganger for James Montier (who long time readers are well acquainted with) is a coincidence (or he would say vice versa). I only kind of have permission to forward this note to you, but better to ask forgiveness… So, this week he is our Outside the Box. And a short but good one he is.
I am in Amsterdam and it is late, but deadlines have no time line. Tomorrow more work on the book. It is getting close to the end. Most books are finished when the authors quit in disgust. How many edits can you do? I am close.
I wonder late at night, with maybe a few too many glasses of wine, why I feel like a book is so much more than an e-letter. Really? The last ten years of what I have written are on the archives. Good (ok, sometimes really good) is there. But some are an embarrassment. What was I thinking?
But somehow in my Old World brain, a book is more than a weekly letter. It is somehow more permanent than an “online” letter. Which may be archived forever. The book is “paper” and may be around for a few years. But the online version is here for a long time.
I know that is stupid. Really I do. But what is a 61 year old mind to do? A strange world we live in.
It is really time to hit the send button. More than you know! The conversation tonight has been too deep!
Your trying to figure out the purpose of life analyst,
John Mauldin
Market still deluding itself that it can escape the inevitable dénouement
By Albert Edwards
The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar…
SP 500 September Futures – Goal of 1100 Reached Inspiring Euro Confidence, Or Not
by Chart School - July 24th, 2010 7:04 pm
SP 500 September Futures – Goal of 1100 Reached Inspiring Euro Confidence, Or Not
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
The Merry Marketeers were able to coax the SP futures to the 1100 level, in a show of support for the results of the Euopean Bank Stress Tests. Huzzah!
The results were rather anemic, even given the somewhat unrealistic nature of the tests.
I can understand that they did not include a sovereign default by the likes of Greece, but that they included only the banks’ trading portfolios, and not their commercial loan portfolios, seemed almost astonishing.
Reggie Middleton does a good job discussing the European Stress Tests here and here
But in the meanwhile, the increasing trivialization of the capital markets by the financial engineers in the service of their nonsensical schemes seems more alarming than anything else I could imagine.
Can they do what they did in 2005, and break the market out to the upside and inflate yet another financial asset bubble? They may very well do this. And it will once again end badly, much worse than the last. But why should they care, or stop, while they continue to become rich?
DARK HORSE HEDGE
by ilene - July 18th, 2010 10:57 pm
DARK HORSE HEDGE 7-18-10
By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW
Friday gave us a real-time example of why we use Hysteresis* and confirmations from our technical signals, MACD 12-26-9 and RSI 14-day, to select and monitor the tilt (long-short ratio) of the Dark Horse Hedge’s portfolio.
The SHORT tilt Friday allowed us to make +1.37% from our 6 SHORT, 3 LONG positions while the S&P 500 gave back -2.88%. The economic data out Friday of course played a large roll in the failure of our indicators to turn from short to BALANCED. A sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Index to 65 in July compared poorly with a June figure of 76 and Briefing.com’s estimate of 74.5. Google’s earnings miss didn’t help either as the S&P 500 fell through its short-term support area to close at 1064.88. The MACD reading is currently at -3.56 and RSI 14-day at 42.85 (bullish signal is above 50). The preponderance of evidence heading into the July 19 week is that the market needs to find support in the 1040 range.
Despite the poor economic data that pushed the market lower on Friday, 19 of 23 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far reported better than projected EPS, and 15 of them beat revenues as well.
Earnings reports will continue to flow in this week. In our portfolio Western Digital Corp (WDC, long position) reports profits on Tuesday while USG Corp (USG, short position) and Sun Trust Banks Inc (STI, short position) report their losses on July 22. We will continue to monitor the market action and look for guidance on entering new positions. Key support areas appear to be 1040, 1022 and then 995.
Dark Horse Hedge maintains 10% cash for swing trade opportunities and we are highlighting one for entry on Monday at the Open.
SHORT Terex Corp. (TEX) at the Open Monday.
TEX will report its latest loss figures on Tuesday, July 21. Twenty analysts project losses ranging from -$.15 to -$.44 with an average of -$.30. Looking back over the last four quarterly announcements, we see analysts often underestimate Terex’s losses. For example, in March 2010, analysts estimated -$.52 while the actual loss was $.64. In December 2009, analysts targeted -$.49 and TEX delivered -$.89. In September 2009, the loss was projected to be $.34 and the company came in at -$.77. In June 2009, investors were…
SP 500 September Futures Daily Chart
by Chart School - July 13th, 2010 5:54 pm
SP 500 September Futures Daily Chart
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
Stocks were rallying today on optimism about earnings based on last night’s results from Alcoa and CSX.
After hours tonight Intel announced better than expected earnings and raised its forecasts. This caused the futures to gap open when they resumed trading. Here is what they look like now, after hours.
This has been a wicked rally off the lows. It *might* be getting towards a short term top, possibly tomorrow, but I would not want to get in front of it. Wait and see how the rally progresses.
IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?
by ilene - July 7th, 2010 1:11 pm
IS THE “DEATH CROSS” A USEFUL INDICATOR?
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
At the March highs we were talking about death crosses. No, not death crosses in the S&P, but the death cross in the one equity index that has proven to be even remotely leading over the course of the last 5 years – China. Today, everyone and their mother is chattering about the death cross in the S&P
“While much is made of the “death cross” of the S&P 500 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day, it has actually been a buying signal during these periods in the past. A good example of this took place in 2004 when during the soft spot in the recovery the 50-day crossed below the 200-day on August 17, 2004, just as the S&P 500 had completed the low point of its soft spot pullback and embarked upon a double-digit percent gain over the next three months.”
Pierre Lapointe, a macro strategist at Brockhouse Cooper agrees:
“The death cross IS nonsense. They’re no better than a flip of a coin to predict future returns. Check out these odds: Since 1970, only 10 of the 21 occurrences actually resulted in a market pullback a month after the death cross. Three months later, the market was down only 43% of the time. With odds like this, don’t short the market. Go to a casino — you’ll have more fun.”
The S&P 500 and the U.S. equity market has not proven to be a leading indicator of much in recent years. Many even question its discounting capabilities at all. The moral of this story? Don’t wait until after a 15% decline in equities to jump on some technical analysis bandwagon. Especially one from an index that has proven to be a leading indicator of just about nothing.
Dow October 1929 – October 1930 vs. 60 Minute S&P 500 Chart
by Chart School - June 9th, 2010 11:16 am
Dow October 1929 – October 1930 vs. 60 Minute S&P 500 Chart
Courtesy of Mish
The time scales are different, but the similarities in the historical DOW chart and a recent 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 are amazingly alike.
click on chart for sharper image
Although these types of direct historical comparisons have limited trading value, it is still interesting to see similar patterns repeat now and then. The market action from the high in April matches the market action from the October 1929 high almost perfectly (albeit on different time scales).
Should the pattern continue you might expect something like this.
Dow October 1929 – July 1933
click on chart for sharper image
The first chart ended October 1930, where the above red arrow starts. I am not calling for the pattern to continue, but I am certainly open to the idea that it could.
So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We’re Back At DOW 11,000? They’re 30% Overvalued
by ilene - April 11th, 2010 11:36 pm
So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We’re Back At DOW 11,000? They’re 30% Overvalued
Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock/Business Insider
So, how do stock values look now that the DOW is back to 11,000?
Not outrageous. But certainly not cheap.
Measured using our favorite valuation technique, Professor Shiller’s cyclically adjusted PE analysis, the S&P 500 has a PE of 22X. The long-term average (1880-2010) is about 16X. The current level is actually close to the big bull market peaks of the past--with the exception of the gigantic one that peaked in 2000.
Check out the chart below, from Professor Shiller’s web site. The blue line is the cyclically adjusted PE ratio for the last 130 years. (The cyclically adjusted PE mutes the impact of the business cycle by averaging 10 years worth of earnings. This reduces the misleadingly low PEs you get at peak profit margins, like the ones in 2007, and the misleadingly high ones at trough profit margins, such as the ones we had last year).
Note a few things:
- The long-term average for the cyclically adjusted PE is about 16X.
- Stocks have spent vast periods above the average and vast periods below it, usually in multi-decade cycles
- We’ve just descended from the longest period of extreme overvaluation in history, suggesting (to us, anyway) that the next multi-decade cycle is likely to be below average
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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