Posts Tagged
‘SPX’
by Phil - May 6th, 2010 8:28 am
"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there." – The Cheshire Cat
I like to sit with my daughters (8 & 10) on the couch and look at news pictures on my laptop – it’s a good way of getting them involved with the day’s events, teaching them about my job and teaching them about the world (albeit from my twisted perspective). The USA Today is exellent for this as is Reuters and the NY Times. As CSNY said:
Teach your children well and feed them on your dreams…
Can’t you see, you must be free to teach your children what you believe in, to make a world – that we can live in?
Since they are kids, I often simplify what’s happening so we have a general classification of "protesters" to explain why the army or police are attacking people with no guns. Yesterday, my 8-year old had a "eureka" moment when she said to me "Why is everyone around the World protesting – it is because of the bad economy?" Well, she pretty much nailed it, didn’t she? As I’ve been warning for years, the poor (all of the bottom 90% at this point) have been pushed to the edge and they are now starting to push back – so much so that it’s obvious to an 8-year old that we are on the verge of a global revolution…
That led to a little photo project we did together, where I also got to teach my daughters one of my favorite songs: "We Won’t Get Fooled Again!" As the great and powerful Bush the 2nd once said: "Fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me ya can’t get fooled again." That pretty much sums up my attitude on the markets right now – we cashed out at the top and, until we see some pretty DEFINITIVE proof that it was not a top, we’ll be sticking to mainly cash, thank you very much! While Alice’s Red Queen may have said "Sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast," we’re having a little trouble swallowing what’s being dished out by our government and the MSM. Richard Davis’s article on the lagging GDP is one example, as are many of the fine articles in our Phil’s Favorites section.
In "Through the Looking Glass" (you can tell I have kids!) Alice said "It’s no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different…
Tags: 5% Rule, debt, DIA, France, Greece, Spain, SPX, SPY
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by Phil - February 3rd, 2010 4:49 am
Peter D has a long-running and very successful system of selling premiums on a regular basis that’s well worth learning.
Investors selling a short strangle are expecting the underlying stock to not move much in either direction. The strategy is accomplished by selling a call option at a higher price than the current stock or ETF price and by selling a put option at a lower price than the current stock or ETF price. Both of the options will have the same expiration month. The investor in a short strangle benefits from the underlying moving within the spread between the call strike and the put strike.
There are two reasons we like this strategy a lot at PSW:
1) It’s boring! Unless the market is MUCH more volatile than normal, taking sensible, NON-GREEDY, out-of-the-money short option positions is a fairly market-neutral way to place our bets. While the risk/reward ratio may seem inverted, statistically it’s a winning play over time.
2) It’s perfect for our "be the house, not the sucker" philosophy of trading. We are always looking to SELL volatility. The idea behind this trade is that front-month volatility is relatively expensive compared to historical long-term volatility and we take advantage of selling a very high cumulative volatility over the course of the year.
We recently ran a collection of comments following through on some trades over time and quite a while ago Sage wrote an article relating about using short strangles on longer-term stock plays, which provides some additional ideas on how to apply this strategy. Peter has been kind enough to provide us with a definitive guide to help set you on the road to a successful career as a strangler. The following is a collection of posts (make sure you use the links) on Short Strangles and the Crazy plays on the indices (SPX, RUT, NDX, etc.):
1- The Crazy play consists of a Short Strangle and a protective long put vertical. These plays are mainly for Virtual Portfolio Margin accounts, with balance greater than $125,000, preferably over $200k as the margin can swing wildly.
2- Very rough comparison among Short Strangle, Iron Condor, Buy/Write and straight stock purchase. Note the rolling tips in the second to last paragraph.
3- VIX, the effects of.
4- Possible adjustments of the Crazy Play.
Additional discussion on doubling down.
…
Tags: NDX, Option Trading Strategies, Options Education, RUT, Short Strangle Strategy, Short Strangles, SPX, VIX
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by Chart School - January 19th, 2010 4:29 am
Is The Stock Market Top In? or Could This Be The Last Chance To Buy Stocks At Support?
Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds
Is this the top of the global equity rally which has run up for 10 months? A case can be made for "yes."
Is the top in on global stock markets? The case can certainly be made on a technical basis. In one of our private email exchanges, correspondent B.C. mentioned a possible turning point in the stock market around the third or fourth week of January. Curious about the timing, I asked if he could provide some context for that possibility. Here are his comments:
As for the "potential" cycle turn date, it is based on the Elliott Wave (EW) Fibonacci 61.8% scaling of the decline from Oct. ’07. But, as you well know, EW works "when it works" (selection bias or effect and post facto rationalizations); and, if it does operate at some deep structural level, there is the ongoing challenge to discern in real time the relevant scale within which a phenomenon is (or is not) occurring.
The Jan. timing also fits within the time-price self-similarity of the Nikkei in late ’99 to early ’00 and the SPX in 1939, which could extend with an ongoing topping pattern to the SPX 1220s-40s into Feb.-Mar. in terms of an idealized time-price symmetry; and (2) the tendency for stock prices to peak early in the second year of a presidential term during secular bear markets and decline for the year on average.
Were the pattern to fit generally with the EW scaling, we are completing a "b of C" within a larger secular descending triangle pattern, and we will see a C-wave decline of 3 waves into ’13-’14.
The bullish sentiment is rather consistent with a B or 2 wave, particularly today in that it is the general consensus of the Wall Street/DC establishment and at least a significant plurality of the "investor class" that the Fed saved the day; "reforms" are being implemented to prevent a repeat of the serial crises; the "worst is over"; and the economy is "recovering" and at no risk of a relapse. I see the structural effects of Peak Oil on the price of oil, debt service, and consumer spending creating a persistent
…
Tags: Dollar, elliott wave, GDP, Gold, SPX, Stock Market
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by Phil - November 23rd, 2009 8:22 am
I noted in the Weekend Wrap-Up that 90% of our gains have come in one day each week.
I also pointed out that a vast majority of those gains occur in very thinly-traded futures, where unregulated (or jokingly regulated) traders can trade a few thousand index shares and move the US market values by Trillions of dollars. That’s why you often see the title "Just Another Manic Monday" starting my weeks, because it is often manic (as in upbeat for irrational reasons) and, as noted by Trader Mark in his post last night – it’s pretty darned ordinary at this point. In fact, anything less than a 1.28% gain on a Monday is below average.
So we are going to be back to testing our breakout levels early in the week and the volume should be low enough to allow a run back to last week’s highs. International traders took advantage of the Nikkei being closed and used the low Asian trading volume to make a statement on the Hang Seng, driving that market up over 200 points after lunch, improving on a 175-point gapped up open that has been flatlining until that final 90 minutes. It was another commodity-led rally as the dollar dove back to 88.5 Yen and right back to $1.4975 to the Euro (where we shorted the Euro last week) and $1.66 to the Pound. This led gold to fresh highs at $1,167 and copper touched $3.20 along with oil getting back to $78.50 – all tempting shorts but we’re happy to watch this nonsense from the sidelines after getting a bit more cashy ahead of the holiday.
The big market-moving news in Asia was a rumor that a researcher under China’s State Council reportedly said the Chinese economy was likely to expand more than 10% in the fourth quarter. That’s all it takes, you know – I know a guy who knows a guy who heard a guy who works in China said things are good there and BOOM – the Dow gains 100 points. Forget the fact that a 10% gain in China’s entire economy is just $400Bn US Dollars – see this excellent NYTimes China/US compariston chart to get a better picture of how the two nations stack up and also please read the excellent article from Marshall Auerback this weekend, "Should America Kowtow to China?" to get a great perspecitve on the money game.
"The market still has upward momentum…
Tags: CHINA, DIA, Dollar, EWJ, SPX
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by Phil - November 12th, 2009 8:21 am
"California tumbles into the sea."
Yes, Steely Dan predicted it in 1973, when Ronald Reagan was still Governor but we thought they were talking about earthquakes at the time. This year it’s clearly California’s 49.3% budget gap and 16.2% drop in state revenue that has them leading a list of lemming states to their doom. Over 1M state and municipal employees may be getting their last checks this Christmas as 9 states face budget issues on par with California.
According to The Atlantic: Nine more states are "barreling toward an economic disaster" according to a new Pew poll that sees deep service cuts and temporary tax hikes to avoid fiscal calamity. Some of these states will be familiar to Atlantic Business readers. I’ve been leading the funeral cry for the united states of MichiCaliFlAriVada (that’s Michigan, California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada), and all five states are on Pew’s list. Rounding out the ten are Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. Here’s the graph from the Pew Center on the States:
…
Tags: CHINA, Cramer, DIA, FCX, FXP, retail sales, SPX, unemployment
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by ilene - November 10th, 2009 4:54 am
Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges
The VIX has moved from overbought to oversold quite quickly this past week (based on its stretch above and below the 10-day average). This brings up the question of whether the now “oversold” VIX is suggesting a selloff for the S&P. I took a look at similar past situations.
[click on table to enlarge]
Results have been inconsistent but risk/reward has generally favored more upside over the coming weeks. This would seem to make sense since what you’re typically looking at in the SPX with the above setup is a strong rebound from a sharp decline during a long-term uptrend.
I am seeing some signs the market is nearing a pullback. The VIX action is not one of those signs.
Tags: pullback, SPX, Stock Market, VIX
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by ilene - September 30th, 2009 7:53 pm
Here’s a MadHedge post originally written last Wednesday when the market all at once started dropping after the Fed’s statement. – Ilene
September 28, 2009
Courtesy of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Featured Trades: (SPX), (AONE), (IRDM)
1) Wow! Risk reversals can be such a bitch! It was like someone flipped a switch at precisely 3:30 p.m. in New York, and suddenly the rally was over. The sell recommendations from market timers poured out like confetti at a New York ticker tape parade. The pundits, talking heads, and faux financial reporters offered many possible explanations. Was it the disappointing housing data, a waffling Fed statement, end Q3 profit taking, or the autumnal equinox? Perhaps it was the Business Week cover the saying the market would continue going up. The harsh reality is that the market fell simply because of its own sheer weight. PE multiples of 20 in the face of flat revenue growth, tightfisted banks, a catatonic consumer, imploding commercial real estate market, an approaching tsunami of new home foreclosures, and a whole raft of government stimulus programs about to expire, is not exactly a springboard for even high prices. What is fascinating is how all global risk assets fell in unison, from gold, to stocks, to private debt, to currencies, as I have long predicted. The only place to hide is cash. The market may take another run at the highs before year end. But the burden of proof has shifted from the bears to the bulls.
2) The spectacular debut of the IPO for A123 Systems (AONE), a maker of high powered, quick recharging lithium ion phosphate batteries using advanced nanophoshate technology, put a great shining spotlight on a sector I have been harping about all year (search my data base for “Butch Cassidy” by clicking here ). The initial price talk was at $8, the IPO came out at $13.50, and the first day of trading took it up to a meteoric 43% to $19.20 on the first day! I had a flashback to the dot.com boom. Where are the gold flecks on the sushi, my free IPO hat,…
Tags: AONE, bears, Bulls, Chile’s Sociedad Quimica Y Minera (SQM), Fed statement, IRDM, Mad Hedge Fund Trader, SPX, Stock Market
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by Phil - September 11th, 2009 8:27 am
And away we go!
We have finally broken through all of our breakout levels and no one is more surprised than I am to see this coming without a pullback (perhaps David Fry – see chart on right). We will, of course, remain cautious through the weekend but we’re already preparing to throw caution to the wind (sort of) as I’ve posted a primer for our Buy/Write Strategy, so we can start picking up the stocks we want at roughly 15-20% discounts. This is why we can afford to be patient as we wait for our breakout levels – WE DON’T MISS ANYTHING! At PSW, we can STILL buy BAC for $14.41 (16% off) and C for $3.43 (27% off) and PARD for $3.79 (51% off) and now that we have made our tops, we feel a lot more comfortable working in at those prices than we would have when the market was 20% lower in early July.
Hopefully that floor holds (Dow 8,000). We’re looking good so far as our breakout levels have been Dow 9,600, S&P 1,030, Nasdaq 2,038, NYSE 6,700 and Russell 577 and now they form a floor we will be able to watch so we’ll know when to be worried that the rally is running out of steam.
We are also well-protected with our disaster hedges from the Aug 24th post and, if you don’t have any – it’s still a good idea to get some (and cheaper now too!). Only 2 33% (off the top) levels remain and that’s 1,056 on the S&P and 6,959 on the NYSE and we will be officially raising our mid-point from Dow 8,650 to 9,500 if we can take those out and hold them for a day or two, which will make 9,000 our new expected floor on the Dow and that means we should be buying here! There’s no point in having watch levels if we don’t act on them.
The dollar continues to fall and that’s supporting oil and gold but not the Nikkei, who fell 100 points off their open and finished down .666% for the day as the dollar failed to hold 91 Yen against the world’s mightiest currency. Even a 50-point "stick save" into the Nikkei close couldn’t paint a positive close for the day. A 100-point boost into the close was enough to give the Hang Seng a 91 point gain on the day, capping off a 700-point week (3.5%) and exactly 10%…
Tags: BHP, crude oil, DBA, DIA, OIH, SPX, SPY, TOT, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLF
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by Chart School - August 31st, 2009 10:00 pm
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 31, 2009
Even bears need a stimulant to get in their act going. It wasn’t a disastrous day but it wasn’t a good way to end the month given the sour China note. The new maxim may be: “when China catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu”. Of course this would be a substitution for what used to begin “the US”. It may also be true to say, we just all have the flu, H1N1 or whatever.
My first business trip to China in the mid-1980s allowed me to witness ordinary citizens trading stocks on the street corner in front of the recently opened stock exchange. It was fun to watch and, if you’re a student of history, you’ll realize that’s the way things were done in London and the US more than a century ago.
More profound is the worries what a new bear market in Shanghai portends for markets where shockwaves are felt hardest—commodity, currency and emerging markets —all hit hard today.
Without posting it until the end of the commentary as usual, let’s look at the Shanghai CSI 300 Index right away. It’s the most popular of all the Chinese indexes. It’s important to remember that the constituents may have little to do with popular FXI (FSTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF) but certainly the index has a psychological impact.
First the daily view with my annotations that include an RSI (Relative Strength Index), two moving averages, candlesticks (for visual effect) and DeMark Indicators. In the blue circles you’ll two occasions where the RSI recently has slipped below 30 indicating severely oversold conditions. Also, note DeMark counts reaching 9 sequential readings heralding some trend exhaustion both on the upside and downside. I’ve also drawn two orange support lines where I think we could find support to work off the oversold RSI but it won’t take much in that regard.
Read Dave’s full market comment here; below are a couple SPY charts.
I promised we’d look at monthly charts today and that’s what we’ll do. That will give us some perspective.
Tags: Dave Fry's ETF Digest, Shanghai CSI 300 Index, SPX
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by Chart School - August 30th, 2009 9:40 pm
Courtesy of Binve at Market Thoughts and Analysis
…. And by "Chart Dump", I don’t mean all these charts belong in the toilet 
So like I said on Friday, I wish Primary 2 was done, I *want* Primary 2 to be done. I just don’t think it is done. But I do think it is very close to being done, next week looks very likely for the top.
But the whole point of this post is to look at a whole host of indices, sectors, asset classes, and sentiment indicators to show that there are some very substantial divergences taking place. Some of the "leader indices" show that they have already potentially topped (are not making higher highs with the broader markets). The Dollar and the VIX may have already bottomed. Volume is drying up (or at least substantially declining) in most of the indicies. In short a lot of the signs that we expect to see with Primary Wave 2 have occurred, and things are more or less "on track" for a large trend change in equities.
The other reason for this massive update this weekend is that our first born child is due any day now, and my blogging and chart updates will drop off dramatically next month. binve’s life is about to get a lot more interesting.
This post contains a lot of charts that I show often, but every chart is completely updated with new annotations and analysis. I believe it is a useful post and tells the picture of the markets from a macro view. Enjoy!
The Primary Wave 2 Checklist
There are several signals that we should see that help to let us know we are at the end of Primary Wave 2. There are some characteristics that Elliott (and then Frost and Prechter later) put forth that would describe some of the technical, fundamental and sentiment aspects of Wave 2. Here are some of those (modified to be bullish, as this Wave 2 is bullish):
From EWP: “Second Waves often retrace so much of Wave one that most of the losses endured are gained back by the time it ends. At this point investors are thoroughly convinced that the bull market is here to stay. Second waves typically end on very low volume…
Tags: asian markets, chart analysis, Dollar, Elliott Waves, Equities, low volume, Primary Wave 2, SPX, VIX
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February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
...
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February 11th, 2012 8:05 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.
The flaw
The market is essentially proceeding on the assumption, as we see it, that banks’ capital requirements can be met organically, through earnings and deleveraging. We ...
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February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm
It's Well Past Time for Plan Z
Courtesy of The Automatic Earth
Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”
Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...
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February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.
Next? Could Be?
What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.
From the article:
"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...
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February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
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free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. -
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
...
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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About Phil:
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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