Ford Call Options Gone Wild as Bulls Populate January 2011 Contract
by Phil - January 7th, 2010 4:31 pm
Today’s tickers: F, IPG, MBI, DAL, XLF, XHB, CROX, GME, BBBY & NVTL
F – Ford Motor Co. – Yesterday we reported on a short strangle play, which implied the automaker’s shares would likely remain within the realm of $10.00 to $12.00 for the next six months to expiration in June 2010. Today we observed bullish options activity in the January 2011 contract, which points to significantly higher shares for Ford in the next twelve months. The stock rallied again today, gaining 2% to reach a new 52-week high of $11.60 with just under 30 minutes remaining in the session. Bullish indications came in the form of a call spread and plain-vanilla call buying strategies. It looks like one investor purchased a large chunk of 50,000 calls at the January 2011 $17.50 strike for an average of $0.58 apiece. The trader responsible for the transaction benefits from this position only if Ford’s shares explode 56% over the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $18.08 by next January. The parameters of the call spread also implies a significant increase in shares of the motor company by 2011, but the nature of the spread limits upside profit potential, whereas the plain-vanilla call buyer’s profits are potentially limitless. The investor responsible for the spread selected the more conservative January 2011 $15 strike to purchase approximately 6,000 calls for an average premium of $1.06 per contract. The other half of the debit spread involved the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 2011 $22.50 strike for about $0.20 each. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to $0.86 per contract and positions the investor to accrue profits above the breakeven price of $15.86. Maximum potential profits of $6.64 per contract are available to the trader if Ford’s shares rally a whopping 94% from the current value to $22.50 by expiration in January of 2011.
IPG – Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. – A long straddle strategy initiated on the advertising and marketing company implies one investor expects greater volatility in the price of the underlying through expiration in February. The inherent nature of the long straddle suggests shares of IPG may swing dramatically in the next few weeks. Interpublic’s shares are currently off 2.5% to stand at $7.27 in afternoon trading. The straddle-player purchased about 2,000 puts at the February $7.50 strike for an average premium of $0.55 apiece and bought…
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Gold Mminers ETF Attracts Bullish Option Plays
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 10th, 2009 5:08 pm
Today’s tickers: GDX, CF, S, XHB, PCLN, XLF, CX, CAR, BZH, CRI & ERTS
GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF – Shares of the gold ETF that invests in shares of precious metals mining companies are up 0.5% to $49.53 with one hour remaining in the trading session. Option implied volatility has come down from 54% to 46% recently as gold’s price has surged. Nearer-term investors sought downside protection on the fund, whereas long-term traders initiated bullish plays. Investors hoping to lock in gains experienced during the recent run-up in the price of gold purchased 4,000 puts at the January 2010 47 strike for 3.05 apiece. Further along, at the March 2010 44 strike, another 6,000 puts were picked up for an average premium of 3.10 per contract. Finally, long-term bullishness took the form of a call spread in the January 2011 contract. It appears one investor purchased about 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike for an average of 9.52 each, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 55 strike for 7.55 each. The net cost of the optimistic play amounts to 1.97 per contract. The trader stands to accrue maximum potential profits of 3.03 each if shares of GDX rally 11% over the current price to $55.00 by expiration in January 2011.
CF - CF Industries Holdings, Inc. – Bearish option plays appeared on the manufacturer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products today after the firm rejected rival Agrium Inc.’s increased takeover offer of $4.52 billion. Shares of CF are currently trading 4% lower to $77.20. Investors purchased put options at the now in-the-money December 80 strike for an average premium of 6.70 apiece. Perhaps put-buyers are protecting long stock positions. Otherwise, they are hoping to accrue profits if shares of CF decline through the effective breakeven price of $73.30. Another trader unraveled a previously established bullish play in the January 2010 contract. The investor originally placed an extremely bullish 8,500-lot call spread at the January 90/100 strikes. However, the trader abandoned bullish sentiment today by closing out the spread. Option implied volatility on CF jumped 7.5% over Monday’s closing value of 52.9% to reach an intraday high of 55.9%.
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – Shares of the wireless communications company surrendered a portion of gains experienced during yesterday’s 20% rally to an intraday high of $3.43. The stock rebounded due to news that Clearwire…
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Carter’s Earnings Cancel Sends Implied Options Volatility Skywards
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 27th, 2009 4:27 pm
Today’s tickers: CRI, RDC, XL, VIX, XHB, XRX, EFA, WYNN, BIDU & XHB
CRI - Carter’s Inc. – The more than 20,500 option contracts exchanged thus far today on the children’s apparel company trumps existing open interest of just 3,342 lots by a factor of 6. Shares of Carter’s are suffering significant erosion after the firm announced plans to delay its third-quarter earnings release, originally scheduled for this evening, perhaps until November 12, 2009. News of the postponement sent shares tumbling 25.5% lower to $21.16. Investor uncertainty jumped through the roof as evidenced by the massive 66% rise in option implied volatility this morning to an intraday high of 90%. Bullish investors took advantage of today’s declines by trading near-term call options. One trader put on a ratio call spread by purchasing 1,000 calls at the in-the-money November 20 strike for 2.30 apiece, and by selling 2,000 calls at the higher November 25 strike for 55 pennies each. The net cost of buying the calls is reduced to 1.20 per contract. The effective breakeven price of $21.20 on the transaction allows the investor to profit by expiration in November if shares of CRI rise at least 4 cents. Maximum potential profits of 3.80 per contract are available if the stock recovers up to $25.00. Losses would begin to accumulate if any rally lifted the share price above $28.80.
RDC - Rowan Companies, Inc. – Option traders scooped up put options on the provider of contract drilling services while shares slumped 2.75% to $24.90. The January 2010 22.5 strike had at least 1,400 puts purchased for an average premium of 1.16 apiece. The now in-the-money January 25 strike attracted traders who picked up 1,300 puts for about 2.15 each. Bearish sentiment spread to the April contract where another 2,000 puts were coveted at the April 22.5 strike for 2.02 a-pop. Finally, the most action took place at the in-the-money April 25 strike where 9,800 puts were purchased for an average of 3.18 each. Perhaps put-buying investors are aiming to protect the value of long positions in the underlying. Otherwise, traders placing bearish bets on RDC hope to accumulate profits on further share price weakness over the next several months.
XL - XL Capital Ltd. – Bullish investors took aim at XL Capital put options in the January contract this afternoon. Shares of XL are slightly higher by less than 0.25% to stand at the current price of…
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Mixed Bag for Airline Share Prices Keeps Option Traders Active
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 21st, 2009 5:08 pm
Today’s tickers: DAL, LCC, PCS & XHB
DAL - Unconfirmed reports today stated that DAL will likely announce plans to sell $500 to $750 million of five-year, senior secured notes that may price to yield approximately 10%. Shares of DAL reacted by gaining more than 4% during today’s session to $9.34. Bullishness was observed on the stock through call transactions this morning. It appears one trader, who originally purchased 6,500 calls at the December 9.0 strike for 40 cents apiece back on August 20, 2009, sold the chunk of calls today for a much richer premium of 1.35 per contract. The investor received a net profit of 95 cents per contract by selling to close the call position. Expecting further near-term gains in DAL, the trader spread the closing sale of the original calls against the purchase of 13,000 fresh calls at the October 10 strike for 42 cents each. Profit from the original bullish stance on Delta Air Lines was sufficient to double up the size of the long call position to prepare for further upside gains by expiration in October. – Delta Air Lines, Inc. –
LCC - In contrast to the bullish options activity observed on Delta Air Lines this morning, it appears investors employed calls on LCC to display bearish sentiment. Shares of US Airways have improved more than 2% to arrive at the current price of $5.09. It seems some traders doubt the airline will rally through $6.00 by expiration in October because some 10,200 calls were sold short at the October 6.0 strike for an average premium of 18 cents per contract. Call-sellers are apparently willing to bear the risk that shares rise through $6.18 – the breakeven point at which losses begin to amass – in order to receive 18 cents premium today. Shares of LCC would need to rally 21% to $6.18 before investors short the calls are exposed to potentially unlimited losses to the upside. Investors keep the full 18 cent premium if shares remain beneath $6.00 and the call options expire worthless by expiration. – US Airways Group, Inc. –
PCS - As global confidence returns investors are finding it hard to resist promising stories especially those that offer potential for meteoric share price gains. FT’s Alphaville is running an apparently well-heeled story who says that Germany’s Deutsche Telekom has got over the incompatibility fears of buying a U.S. mobile carrier. Since the big four…
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Friday Market Follies - Up, Up and Away?
by Phil - September 11th, 2009 8:27 am
And away we go!
We have finally broken through all of our breakout levels and no one is more surprised than I am to see this coming without a pullback (perhaps David Fry - see chart on right). We will, of course, remain cautious through the weekend but we’re already preparing to throw caution to the wind (sort of) as I’ve posted a primer for our Buy/Write Strategy, so we can start picking up the stocks we want at roughly 15-20% discounts. This is why we can afford to be patient as we wait for our breakout levels - WE DON’T MISS ANYTHING! At PSW, we can STILL buy BAC for $14.41 (16% off) and C for $3.43 (27% off) and PARD for $3.79 (51% off) and now that we have made our tops, we feel a lot more comfortable working in at those prices than we would have when the market was 20% lower in early July.
Hopefully that floor holds (Dow 8,000). We’re looking good so far as our breakout levels have been Dow 9,600, S&P 1,030, Nasdaq 2,038, NYSE 6,700 and Russell 577 and now they form a floor we will be able to watch so we’ll know when to be worried that the rally is running out of steam.
We are also well-protected with our disaster hedges from the Aug 24th post and, if you don’t have any - it’s still a good idea to get some (and cheaper now too!). Only 2 33% (off the top) levels remain and that’s 1,056 on the S&P and 6,959 on the NYSE and we will be officially raising our mid-point from Dow 8,650 to 9,500 if we can take those out and hold them for a day or two, which will make 9,000 our new expected floor on the Dow and that means we should be buying here! There’s no point in having watch levels if we don’t act on them.
The dollar continues to fall and that’s supporting oil and gold but not the Nikkei, who fell 100 points off their open and finished down .666% for the day as the dollar failed to hold 91 Yen against the world’s mightiest currency. Even a 50-point "stick save" into the Nikkei close couldn’t paint a positive close for the day. A 100-point boost into the close was enough to give the Hang Seng a 91 point gain on the day, capping off a 700-point week (3.5%) and exactly 10% off the September 2nd low at 19,500, matching the Aug 4th…
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Wild and Crazy Options Action on AIG
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 27th, 2009 6:07 pm
Today’s tickers: AIG, IMMU, XHB & NCS
AIG - Investors displayed what can only be described as options-mania today as more than 411,000 contracts (and rising) were traded on the stock by lunchtime. Shares have exploded upwards by more than 28% to stand at the current price of $48.46. Option implied volatility, or the measure of investor uncertainty, jumped up from 114% at the opening bell to the current reading of 150%. Near-term uber-bulls were observed purchasing more than 7,500 calls as high as the September 70 strike price for an average premium of 1.20 apiece. The call premium at that strike – the highest strike price listed for the stock – has nearly doubled during the trading session. Early-bird rewards were apparent as traders who acted first thing this morning (around 10:30 am EDT) were able to purchase the same calls for just 36 cents each. Another trade of note was a bullish reversal established in the November contract. An investor shed 7,500 puts at the November 27 strike price for a premium of 2.50 apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 7,500 calls at the higher November 55 strike for 4.10 each. The net cost of purchasing the calls was reduced to 1.60. Thus, this individual will begin to realize profits if AIG continues higher by 17% to breach the breakeven point at $56.60 by expiration in November. – American International Group, Inc. –
IMMU - The biopharmaceutical company’s shares have surged 60% higher to reach a new 52-week high of $6.82. Bullish movement in the stock was fueled by news regarding the firm’s experimental epratuzumab drug. Apparently, the drug showed a clinically “meaningful treatment effect” as compared with the placebo in patients with lupus. Option traders responded by positioning for continued upward momentum in IMMU. Call options were coveted at the near-term September 7.5 strike price more than 5,600 times for an average premium of 43 cents per contract. Investors holding the calls are hoping to see the stock rise 16% higher to surpass the breakeven point at $7.93 by expiration next month. Additional bullish action was observed at the November 5.0 strike price where traders shed 2,900 puts for 46 cents a-pop. Perhaps these individuals doubt that shares will slip beneath $5.00 by November’s expiration day. Thus, they are happy to receive the 46 cents premium in exchange for bearing the risk that shares of the underlying are…
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Caterpillar Bulldozes Higher
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 21st, 2009 4:14 pm
Today’s tickers: CAT, S, INTC, YHOO, GE, XHB & HAL
CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest maker of construction equipment have gained nearly 3.5% during the trading session to stand at $47.06 despite reports of accelerated declines in machinery sales to retailers during the month of July. At first glance, the 20,000 put options purchased at the January 2010 40 strike price for 2.72 apiece, looks bearish. However, we believe the puts are likely tied to the acquisition of an equivalent number of shares of the underlying stock, and is thus a bullish play. The purchase of married put options provides the investor with downside protection through expiration day in January. This individual is hoping to see the price of CAT appreciate, but is immune from losses beneath the breakeven share price of $37.28. We note that the puts are deep out-of-the-money. Thus, downside protection would not kick in unless the investor had already experienced a more than 20% decline in the value of the underlying shares.
S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – The communications company edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon following a burst of options activity in the November contract. Shares of the firm are currently higher by about 2.5% to $3.92. Investors essentially established short straddles at the November 4.0 strike price by shedding 15,000 calls for a premium of 45 cents apiece and selling 15,000 puts for about 50 cents each. Such positioning indicates that traders expect shares of Sprint to settle near $4.00 by expiration. If this occurs, investors will retain the 95 cent gross premium received on the sale. The premium pocketed today compensates traders for bearing the risk that the stock shifts away from the $4.00 level. If shares were to rally higher, investors are exposed to potentially unlimited losses above the breakeven point to the upside at $4.95. On the other hand, losses would begin to amass to the downside if shares slip beneath $3.05 by expiration.
INTC - Intel Corp. – The semiconductor chip maker has enjoyed a 0.5% increase in shares today to $18.80, but a bullish reversal play on the stock suggests one investor is positioning for more significant gains. It appears that the trader shed 8,800 puts at the January 2010 17.5 strike price for a premium of 1.13 apiece in order to finance the purchase of 8,800 calls at the higher January…
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Will We Break Out Wednesday? No.
by Phil - August 5th, 2009 8:23 am
So close but yet so far!
As you can see from David Fry’s chart of the QQQQ’s, the Nasdaq is looking to boldly go where no index has gone since last October, back through the September highs! If you look at the chart pattern, we have a nice "W" bottom already in and a breakout here at 40 on the Qs could mean we’re heading back to where the drop began - way up at 47.5. That’s a neat 20% gain from here and that would give us Dow 11,160, S&P 1,200, Nas 2,400, NYSE 7,800 and Russell 700.
What? Do you think that sounds like a bit much? Well, if you question the resulting trend of a breakout then perhaps you should get ahead of the curve and question the breakout in the first place…
Does it strike you as strange that a breakout here and a move up to the top of that "W" would put stocks back to where they were valued last June, when the average company earned twice as much on 35% more revenues? Do you really consider MRO a value because they beat expectations of .53 by earning .58, "just" 39% below last Q2. MGM is down 21%, TAP down 54%, RRI down 61%, APC down 37%, CTX down 49%, FST - 64%, LF -27%, PHM - 57%, VMC -29%, ADM - 24%…. Well you can look them up yourself here and I’m not saying there aren’t winners in this market, but they are few and far between yet the rally is indiscriminate - as if the whole market is spectacularly undervalued.
While I have long been in the camp of those saying "The economy is not that bad," I do have to, at this juncture, point out that the economy is not THAT good either. Keep this in mind when you are buying stocks. How far away are we from your company earning what it earned last year? What is your expected growth rate. Keep in mind that last June, your company had positive guidance and was projecting revenues and earnings 10-20% higher than that by 2010 and all we are saying here is how long will it take your company to get back to what it was earning in 2008? If you say 2 years - then look at the price of your stock in 2006 - THAT is probably a fair value for your stock!
XOM, for example, made $8.47 per share last year but made just $1…
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Western Digital in the Hot Seat
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 27th, 2009 5:24 pm
Today’s tickers: WDC, XLF, EEM, RRI, MYL, XHB, ROK, IACI, & XME
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Low Cost Calendar Spread in the Homebuilders ETF
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 24th, 2009 5:24 pm
Today’s tickers: XHB, YHOO, S, MSFT, WFC, TIF, AMZN, & COF
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(