This is why we move to cash at the first sign of trouble – there are great opportunities on the way down as well!
Our oil plays were amazing today, averaging well over 100% returns in just one day!
The markets were pathetic once again, now broken below all technicals and moving on to test some very negative barriers. It would be a gravity defying feat if they were to turn it around on Monday…
Oil may recover to turn around that sector but even a morning explosion in Nigeria couldn’t derail the fundamental fact that there is no more room to store oil in this country.
Gold finished down at $710 and, as I mentioned in comments, gold stocks finished back where they were when gold was at $550. Either someone knows something about gold or someone doesn’t know something about math because that extra $160 is pure profit per ounce over last quarter (forget last year) for the miners.
I’m not going to review pre-thursday picks as they all should have been sold in the downturn so it would be silly to look at where they are now. Please go over My Trading Policies if you are a new reader as tight stops and discipline can save you a ton of money, especially if we are heading into another choppy market.
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What a great day to short oil! I chickened out early as I was concerned about someone pumping up the price into the NYMEX close but it just wasn’t enough to keep investors in the sector as almost everything fell at least a couple of points.
SU $85 puts ran up to $2.45 for a 300% gain.
GRP $55 puts finished at $4.60 for a 205% gain.
BP $75 puts opened at .45 not .35 but ended at $1 for a 110% gain.
OII Jun $70s still look good and are in the money at $3.20 (up 115%).
SLB continued the downtrend and the $72.50 puts are now $4 (up 95%).
CAM ran out of time or it would have gone lower but the $55 puts are already $3.30 (up 200%).
CLB dropped to $62.40 (down 6%) – I wish it were optionable!
HYDL was saved by the 5% rule and the $85 puts jumped to $6 (up 160%).
PDE held up well after recovering from a drop but the $35 puts are now .70 (up 180%).
RDSA fell faster than I thought but the Jun $70 puts look good at $2.85 (up 30%). Hey, they can’t all be doubles!
CVX made a nice initial move and the $60 puts are already .40 (up 130%) and the $65s are down a nickle but this was a weekend play to see what’s up so I’m not worrying about it.
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TM Jun $120s went all the way down to $1.20 and I am very psyched about these for next week.
MSFT didn’t move and I’m staying out of this one until the Nasdaq shows signs of life.
UNH did just what we thought with a poor open followed by a slew of buyers piling in:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNH&t=1d
MT also was a great play if you sold at the open, the rest of the day was dreck as expected:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=mt
CSCO was one of the only stocks up all day. The Oct $20s are already $1.80 (up 20%).
SRZ was another winner and the July $40s jumped to .85 (up 55%).
BVN lost $1.26 today but the Jun $30s lost .90 so no harm done so far.
AU ran into the 5% rule on the downside and the $55s are now iffy at .85 (down 60%).
PD actually held its own and the Jan $100s are looking good at $11.40 (up 25%).
Thurdays XOM spread went great as the $65 calls may be down .20 but the $62.50 puts are now .90 (up 200%).
LVS was worrying yesterday but finally hit a downward slide and the Jun $70 puts are well in the money at $4.30 (up 130%).
PBR finally redeemed my faith in bad South American government as the $100 puts ran up to $2.05 (up 150%).
Great timing on ATI, got out just in time yesterday! Again, a great example of how taking profits off the table is always a good idea.
GME stopped me out mid-day but then went back down and the $45 puts finished at $1.50 (up 400%) .
Finally, I’d like to give a shout out to Ed Zander at Motorolla for being one of the only large cap Nasdaq stocks to survive the day! I love these guys!
Have a great weekend,
– Phil
