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Friday, April 19, 2024

Thankless Thursday Wrap-Up

Holy cow is it over yet?

Call the ref – stop the fight before the maket gets brain damage or something!

The Nasdaq broke through the 200 dma yesterday like it was a paper wall and looks like it’s all set to give up another 10% unless there is some actual bad news so it can give up 20…

There is no way the other indices can avoid the sinkhole being formed by the Nasdaq, it’s like a black hole that sucks in everything that gets close and warps space for light years in every direction. There seems to be no hope of escape!

Ah well, there’s nothing to do but watch and wait.

=====================================

MSFT dipped at the day’s end but the $22.50s went all the way to .85 (up 90%) before pulling back to .40 at the end of day.

This is a good time to mention yet again that without tight stops on any profits over 20% you have very little chance of making money in this market.

QCOM went down all day (like everything else) so I didn’t buy my MOT Jul $22.50s, now .45 but it’s looking like we will need to switch to the $20s if this thing doesn’t turn in the next 2 days.

CSCO keeps sneaking up, now at $20.29 but I dumped those calls along with everything else!

If it wasn’t for SHLD tacking on $2.4Bn in market cap what would the indexes have looked like?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHLD&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

As I said on GM, just another opportunity to take more shorts! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GM&t=1d

HD also had a nice entry (just .90) on the $37.50s and they hit $1.55 in the afternoon before dropping back to .95 right at the end.

GME thankfully opened too high to buy as it dipped all day from there. As Don said in comments, it was a good day to go fishing.

Apple looks like it’s having a reverse auction as it keeps stopping at different prices to see if anyone will buy it (so far the answer is always no). We’ve seen this before but today they hit the same 200 dma they leaped off of in late March only back then it was down at $57.50 so we will get a chance to see if they really are worth $5 more after that great quarter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5d

Apple has not gone below its 200 dma since May 2003 when it was trading at $7!

SNDK held up again but looked as fed up as we are by the end of the day, I don’t think it can lead us out of this mess.

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Dell pulled off a great trick this evening, they blew the quarter (10% lower than low end guidance pre-warning), dropped profit 18% and gained 4% in the after hours. How? They announced they are going to start using cheaper AMD chips. This move was called on Tuesday by David Jackson of Seeking Alpha in this post (and congrats to him on a great trade):
http://chipstockblog.com/article/10290

This is a serious overreaction to Dell’s proposed cost cuts, which seem overly ambitious and may not lead to profits as they are combined with revenue cuts we discussed earlier but at least they’re doing something so we should give them a pass until the next quarter.

The trade to make out of this is Intel, who got drop kicked 5% by investors in the AH to $17.71 – a severe overreaction. Even Dell CEO Rollins said “It’s a fairly small category in terms of units, we will still be launching this year a broad line of Intel products. We think we’ve got a winning combination of bringing great technology to all customers.” The last time Intel was below $18 was 2003, when earnigns were 40% lower than they are now. Intel will wake up in the mornng with a p/e of about 13, half the sector average. I have to look at the Jun $17.50s which should be about .60 in the morning… I just have to!

I also have to think about the Jan ’08 $20s if they are under $2 as I can sell the Jun $20s for .20 for a nice monthly income.

AMD shot up 12% on the news and they do deserve it as it is a major victory for them and the Opteron platform but it makes them too pricey for my tastes in this market.

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