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Monday Mania!

Yahoo!

That’s all I have to say about today because my Yahoo’s are looking pretty damn good right now. I chickened out of my calls this afternoon when the market looked toppy but I put the cash to good use buying AXP as it sold off a little bit later. AXP’s report was so good it ignited a secondary rally in practically every stock but AXP (see article below).

The Dow flew through 11,000 with a 182 point gain, coming to rest right under the 50 dma of 11,053 where it got a light rebuke at 3:30. The Nasdaq jumped 40 points but hasn’t even made it back to last week’s high yet while the S&P matched last week’s high but got a light rejection off the 200 dma at 1,265. The S&P will tell the whole story tomorrow as it is sqeezed right between the 2 dmas with just 6 points between them!

The NYSE was the indicator of the day, punching through the 200 dma with ease and running right past the 50 dma with a good, strong finish:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENYA&t=1d

Volume was very good for a Summer Monday and if your stock didn’t advance today it probably sucks. PD was one of the few decliners as copper went limit down this morning but it’s more a reflection of their massive acquisition than about sector concerns.

Kraft beat on earnings which should help fuel the Dow further tomorrow and SOX puppet SNDK looks like it knocked the cover off the ball as well.

Oil rallied on: The loss of a major Venezualan refinery, A pipeline leak in Nigeria, 2 refinery outages in the states and a major Hurricane forecast – not on the war in the Mid East (pick one) or the record hot summer and surging global demand. Nonetheless, I shorted SLB in comments as it looked like a top to me.

Gold dropped to $613 but held $600 in intraday trading which rallied the gold stocks as it seems there is a limit to how far the US traders can drive the price down.

On the whole it was a great day but we still have some work to do to get back in a rally mode. It will be up to TXN (hopefully all those Amex users were buying cell phones and flat panel TVs), MMM, MO, AMZN, T, BNI, GLW, DD, MCD et al who report on a very busy day tomorrow.

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Let’s keep tight stops on theseas it would be a shame to have another sell-off wipe out all of our lovely profits!

YHOO Aug $25s are already $2.35 (up 70%) – how obvious was that one?!? If the Nasdaq keeps rolling I’m going to roll my profits into the Oct $30s for .80.

The Valero Rule kept us out of the oil puts, thank goodness, but I overrode and picked up some SLB $60 puts for $1 as I thought today’s move was a little overdone.

TXN is very tough to read and perhaps I’ll digest it by morning but so far the earnings look good but a lot will depend on guidance during the CC. I was wrong on the timing of the earnings so we were able to pick up the $30s for .35 and the $27.50s for $1.10 in the morning and the stock had a wild ride before settling into a 3% gain for the day.

MRK gave us a nice slow start before picking up another dollar on the day and the Oct $40s are already at $1.10 (up 85%) – not bad for a day’s work!

VOD flew up at the open and held up nicely putting the Aug $20s way into the money at $1.65 (up 55%).

T had a poor start but turned it right around for a 1.6% gain ahead of tomorrows earnings. So far the $27.50s are .90 (up 60%).

LVS defied gravity but the Jan $60 puts stayed flat at $4.70 but that’s fine by us as the Aug $60 puts lost 33% of their value for a .80 gain so far (17%). Casinos begin reporting tomorrow so we should get a preview of the industry from BYD and STN.

GLW was one of the day’s few losers so don’t say you couldn’t pick up the $22.50s for $1 (down .10).

AMGN made a nice, quiet move and the $67.50s gained a dime to $1.30.

PETS gained 10% on the day but the $12.50s held steady at .20. Sure it’s far away but the stock was at $20 in March from wheret shouldn’t have sold off in the first place. It’s meds for pets – what could be more simple? 200 Million patients who can’t sue you!!!

VZ makes me think I have too many readers as it shot up today on no special news. The slow start gave us a nice in though and the $32.50s flew to .80 (up 90%) while the $30 puts lost just a nickel to .10 (but I didn’t buy those!).

I hope you took the double on AMLN off the table as it shot up today on another bad quarter but not quite as bad as estimates (now you can tell we have entered a more forgiving environment). If you didn’t get the hint in early trading, you were given another chance to get out at full profits around 2 but now the opportunity is gone…

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMLN&t=1d

CBH was a slow mover but has caught on nicely and the $32.50s are already $2.15 (up 25%).

I wanted to short UST last week but MO didn’t let us, we need to keep an eye on this tomorrow as UST was firmly rejected by $50:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UST&t=5d

TEVA picked up a buck today, my bad for forgetting about it as I said it would do this on Friday.

CAT rebounded nicely and the Aug $72.50s are “just” $1.25.

BTU may have decided enough is enough and the $50s are not unreasonable at $1 if natural gas goes back over $7.

BNI (7/25) is still not getting the respect it deserves and I still like the Oct $75s for $2.70 up 35%) but we called the dead bottom on Friday $2 ago.

JPM $42.50s are back at $2.20 (up 120%) but this time please set a stop at $2!

PTEN (8/3) $25s are way down at .80 (down 40%), they were a no-buy at the time but I do like them at this price (was .55 this morning).

TIF racked up 5% today and the Nov $35s are back at $1.20 while COH had a 3.5% day and the $27.50s hit $1.15 (up 15%).

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TXN hit $29 already in post market so I will go to sleep with visions of triple digit returns dancing in my head!

AXP isn’t wowing me so far with the conference call and I hope it perks up while I’m at dinner.

We’ll see if $75 holds ahead of oil inventory – tomorrow should be lots of fun!


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