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TGIF!

Well it’s been a while since we’ve been glad to get out of a week but let’s get this one over with!

Please make a post-it and put it on your monitor.  It should say 2 thing:

  • It is NOT my job to save the market
  • If it doesn’t bounce over 20% it’s not recovering!

This is no time to be a stock picker, this is the time to be a trend spotter.  We have our Nasdaq calls as a general call on the markets but it’s a long way to go before we are "back on track" for the week.  Happy Trading has several market watching charts up this morning over in Wang’s World but I placed my bet on the Nasdaq (if anything is going to recover at all):

nasdaq_5_10_07.jpg

This will be an easy day to make a decision as anything down is very, very bad!

Asia was not too bad this morning with the Nikkei and the Hang Seng dropping "just" a little over 1%.  Of course export companies took a big hit as worries about the weakening US consumer dominated trading.  Over in Europe the markets are trading down at their open other than the UK, which is being led back up by merger mania in the mining sector.

E posted a 13% decline in profit as oil prices fell and gasoline demand dropped even though the shadow cartel member cut production 5% for the quarter.  "Lower European gas demand pulled worldwide gas sales down 10%" and you will see Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude scrambling today to tell you ANYTHING other than that truth.  The IEA is doing their best to stir the pot by coming out with a drop stopping report that claims we will have a tight summer due to demand.  "You’re going to end up with a tightening of the product market in June. By July you’ll have a potential for a 2.5 million barrels-a-day increase in refinery throughputs," said the report’s editor Lawrence Eagles. "You need to have supplies increasing by that amount but we’re not seeing it in shipping data" and elsewhere.

The "Core" PPI came in flat so look for another round of traders deluding themselves that the Fed may cut rates.  They arrive at this conclusion by ignoring the fact that if you do factor in food and energy, the "Non-Core" PPI is up a shocking .7% in one month.  I’m not even going to multiply that by 12 as we won’t be able to sleep this weekend so let’s just pretend it doesn’t exist – just like a "leading economist!"

Unfortunately, if we don’t close above our 50 dmas today it is likely to be hello 200 dma next week:

US Markets

All our majors are at critical levels and if they don’t hold here, Monday could be very exciting – but in a bad way

Oil still needs to get back over $62.50 and if they can’t make it on this coordinated mega pump then they may be in serious trouble next week too as the fact of this actual glut of oil that is filling every nook and cranny in this country runs headlong into the fantasy of an oil shortage that is being used to prop up prices.

Oil and Dollar

That’s the July contract by the way, notice it too is near a critical failure for the week and it has been mainly supported as unused barrels have been rolled out of June and into July by traders who actually have no place to put them and are faced with the choice of canceling contracts or swallowing another month’s worth of premium in hopes that something horrible will happen in the world so they can profit from it.  Best of luck boys!

ZMan points out that yesterday’s 96Bcf injection puts us 21% above the 5-year storage average but much is being made that we are 12% below last year’s record levels.  Let’s not forget that CHK had to cut 10% of their production in the fall to relieve this glut and that company is being punished for its cartel activities as the cut didn’t raise prices enough to offset the lower sales.

Let’s be careful out there today, anything can happen and we need to go with the flow!

 


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  1. looks like AMGN is halted??


  2. same with CROX? not moving. . what’s going on. .


  3. NASDAQ is having quote issues


  4. Z – keep an eye on NE, TK, and HAL if they deserve a DD will you? Thanks

    Phil, not to beat a dead horse but is CY a dump and take the loss or is it worth a DD at this level – thanks


  5. goog just tested yesterday’s bottom


  6. AMGN – either that or there was a volume crash.

    Ah, thanks Opt. That’s really scary that that can still happen.

    Wow, Google still going down!


  7. FXI- Any News? Thought China was down last night?


  8. might have a shot at a rally if we can retake 1500 on S&P


  9. CY – I wouldn’t buy anything ahead of the weekend, just be glad to get back money on the positions you should have stopped out of days ago! CY really pissed me off by bowing to pressure and divesting part of SPWR. Until I see a concrete plan for what they are doing with the money I will probably not consider them until they test the 50 dma at $20 at least. Don’t forget they were being valued at pretty much 0 with their stake in SPWR worth more than their cap. Without that stake, what will be left? Just cash and that can get blown pretty quickly…

    GOOG – I still have faith. Next week I will likely roll back a month and sell Junes if my posiitons aren’t working but I think they are way undervalued here.


  10. damn, should have gone with my gut on DNDN premarket. .


  11. DNDN

    Short covering providing support and even a bounce.


  12. FXI -

    China to Let Banks Buy Stocks Overseas
    http://tinyurl.com/2zu2cs


  13. FXI = WTF? That is really strange… Something is up and you can’t ask questions here if you have a caller, I haven’t for weeks..


  14. SNP rally. FXI ?


  15. TM nice push, they obviously read the mail!


  16. FXI – now I have a caller! I sold 1/2 the May $114s into the initial excitement. $2.50 was just too much to pass up as it was .50 yesterday…


  17. Phil

    Any thoughs on JNJ if they make a turn? May 65 P at 3.00

    T


  18. Oil negative already? Oh no! Don’t they read the EIA reports???


  19. Phil:

    Any current plays on WYNN? Thought you had an open position, but I guess you
    closed it. Thanks.


  20. Anyone else witness the sudden drop in all the DOW stocks and the quick rebound? Scared the hell out of me.


  21. LYO up almost 15%? Because OXY is selling it’s 8.3% stake?


  22. JNJ – I like them at $60, not $65 – it’s too early to get a read on the impact of FDA ruling and they still have a massive stent overhang.

    AMGN – beware $55.50, if they beat that they are probably going to look like a recovery bargain to the chart boys.

    PTR like a yo-yo.


  23. CHL and LFC up on this bizarre FXI/China flurry.


  24. Phil,

    Looking to buy FMCN stk @38.25 and sell the May 40 for @1.25. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.


  25. There is a story apparently saying China will allow its’ refineries to make “modest” profits. Apparently a DJ newswire story


  26. WYNN – no I still have the spread. I was thinking they were going to recover but now I’m thinking thatI’d better sell the $95s for $2 while I can (XXX by the end of the day).

    LYO – that’s an interesting dynamic…

    Not a very impressive “rally” so far


  27. Phil! For some stupid reason, Ive held onto HPQ thinking it would continue through its 52 week high…. do you think its taking a break or have we seen top?


  28. Phil:

    I own AMGN in my IRA at a cost of $58. I sold the July 65 calls at $3 when the stock ran up
    last week. Should I buy back the July 65s and sell a $60? What would you suggest?
    Thanks again.


  29. JOSB- bought back sold calls yesterday and went long as stock is down 3 from yesterday’s high


  30. Phil when u write XXX what does that mean


  31. Phil – Holding GE mo play thru the day?


  32. I’d have to advise China not to do it, soon they will be controlled by Petro Dollars… Best is to kill them all and take over production, expell all foreign oil companies and turn it into a state operation. This may sound radical now but I bet either China or Russia end up doing it within 20 years.

    FMCN – earnings are on the 17th so you are taking a risk of a downside surprise. You are trying to make a max of $3 and risking $37. I’d rather sell the July $37.50 for $3.75 which reduces your risk to $34.20 and gives you the same $3 upside (but you have to wait 60 days for your 10%) but if I were going to be bullish then buying the July $40s for $2.45 and selling the May $37.50s for $2.20 or better (mo is good) is the way to go as my worst case on a dip is -.25 and, since I was willing to buy the stock anyway, I just take out my caller on positive earnings and let my .50 out of the money calls fly (as the stock has to hit $49.50 for me to owe any money back to my caller). This knocks out $1 of my potential reward to the upside but eliminates $36.75 of the risk.


  33. Phil,

    could u mark if u start a new postion? that will help a lot for someone like me just joined, as the tradings related to your current positions may be not very relevent to us and it’s dangerous to follow. thanks


  34. HPQ – I like them long-time, and they will do well in a rally so if I were stuck with it I wouldn’t worry here.

    AMGN – Absolutely give the guy a dime for the July $65s, you are buying your freedom to act. If you can afford to get called away I would sell the $55s because this thing can get downgraded 10 times and half the analysts would still be bullish (4 downgrades today). If I had this at $58 I’d be thrilled to get out even, if you are time constricted you could also sell the Jan $55s for $5.65 or the Jan ’09 $50s for $12.35 (a $7 premium on what becomes a $46 entry – 15% over 2 years, not great, not terrible). Having said that AMGN is now over $55.50 so it should get a little pop here. If not – look out below!

    GE – yes, always looking for a chance to pick them up cheap.

    XXX means it is a generally recommended trade (as opposed to me just answering a question or giving you a heads up on a strategy I’m considering or, heaven forbid, one of my psycho day trades!


  35. XXX is the start of a new position I recommend. I start many positions I don’t recommend but I do try to mention all my trades.


  36. Phil, I know I asked this before but I’m not sure I got an answer. What tools do you use to track your portfolio? Specifically, to to track the 20% rule? Also, when do you calculate the 20% of profits? End of day or in real-time? Thanks


  37. Here comes DNDN – someone is buying…


  38. SHLD

    wow it is up today……..amazing.


  39. Z – what’s up with NE – why such a rally – best of prom?


  40. Happy

    What are you thinking about on the AKAM chart… Forming a bottom…..?


  41. ECA on a run


  42. POT-ATH HIGH
    RIG & TEX-took off gains from yesterday’s buys
    FRPT-Phil you know anything about this? Cramer mentioned it last night! Just went on NAS a month or so ago. Buddy has it with price of $6


  43. TSO = Rage/Anger :)


  44. CME flying! Good for Google.

    Tracking – I have my portfolio up on Etrade and OXPS and Investools and they all give me different views and I keep a spreadsheet but mostly I see one of my positions moving and I have a pretty good idea of if my options are taking a hit. OXPS lets me set % trailing stops and if I’m busy I’ll put a hard stop on one contract so it’s like a heads up when it hits my number and executes and then I can see if I want to move the rest.


  45. AMGN

    Thanks Phil. I bought back the Jul 65s at .35 and sold the Oct 57.5s at $3.30.
    Would just as soon keep the stock as its somewhat of a
    core position (as much as a biotech can be). So I may ask your advice on rolling up
    as we get closer to expiration. Thanks for your help.


  46. Anyone – Z, Happy, Phil

    TSO

    Will we get a double top soon, or pierce?


  47. JPL – just saw you’re posts, been busy tending my site. If you need me fast drop me a comment over there. NE up big with group. Refiners are on fire (pun intended) b/c of the rising cracks.

    Love TK here, got pulled down with all the red yesterday.

    Loving HAL here too. I know it’s a sin but I can’t help myself. Business is too good and they’re goig to get away Scott free on any past transgressions. You know they are!!!

    PQ senior VP excercising options and holding the stock before big well to be announced any day now. Don’t know if it means much but there you have it. I like owning a few June $15s on that one this well boosts reserves handsomely if it pays out. If not, that money is scrapped. I’m playing with profits off my May $12.50 position.

    Gotta run to a TSO shorters anonymous meeting. See ya!


  48. Phil

    p.s. see my lost comment in thursday thump


  49. OK, FXI, that’s about enuff of the “initial excitement”!


  50. FRPT – I’d be worried the war will end one day (yeah I know, silly) but as long as the war is on, these guys should do well.

    TSO – I’ll consider taking $120 puts into the weekend if they can’t break $121.

    XOM smoking my poor putter! Boy did I need that to offset some of the damage to my leaps.

    AMGN failing at $55.50, I think the bargain hunters are fading out.


  51. BillBigD:
    FRPT, I’ve been watching this one for over a year, never did buy though, kept thining it would crap out. My mistake!. Looks like they broke out yesterday. They make armoured vehicles for the military, lots of orders for use in Iraq.

    Greg


  52. TIE – WoW!


  53. Phil

    Any advice on managing the DIA calander spread trade we got into yesterday? Selling May 132 and buying July 134. Thanks.


  54. Phil – Tracking – I also use OXPS but their Tstops are a % of the total value not the profits. I guess I just have to figure out where the stop should be and calculate the % that gets it there. I’ve been talking with the developers at exitpoint.com to implement stops at 20% of profits. Hopefully, they’ll have that done this year. Unfortunately, its delayed 15 minutes.


  55. FXI – that’s why I only sold half – you never know but the $115s are still $2.50 as the velocity of gain changed (I’ll bet they’re angry about that!). I will stop these guys out at $3 and sell the next $ up on the turn. Right now the $116s are $2 so at about $2.50 I will pay .50 for a roll. I can do that all the way to $120 and I will still be even if it doesn’t close next week above that mark. Meanwhile my leaps would be a double so the $1.25 (only sold half) would not make me cry too much.


  56. Phil – just wondering why CME flying is good for GOOG?


  57. AKAM
    chubby, yes, looks that way!

    PTR/SNP/CEO
    got into PTR this morning. Looking to get CEO, much cheaper options!


  58. Z – I sent you a note on your site – but I have a hard time going back and forth, so give me your thoughts on NE for the near future. Thanks


  59. TIE-Buyout rumor again? Up roughly 7%
    Thanks Greg
    I have been watching it since $13. Never did anything SH*t lol


  60. DIA July $134s are $2.62 – up .32 and May $132s are $1.65 – up .35 but they still have .50 in premium that they WILL lose between now and Friday so I have no motivation to buy them out as .50 against my $1 spread position is a LOT of money.

    OXPS – yes you have to make the adjustment. I do all that in my head (I’m good at math) so I don’t think much about it but you could set up a spreadsheet that would give you that number pretty quickly. I’m going to be working with a broker over the summer to put some of these rules into a platform.


  61. MOT breaking through 50 dma at last. If they can close above it, this will be the first time since OCT and may finally signal a reversal. They’ve had a terrible time trying to get through this technical resistance.


  62. CME/GOOG – no logical reason but there’s a correlation I can only say translates to if one $500 stock can do well then so can another. Check out this scary pair:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart18:symbol=goog;range=1y;compare=cme;indicator=volumema+macd+rsi;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    Sometimes you just have to accept these things and not overthink them…

    CEO – good idea. Although how insane is this that China did something to boost the markets – someone must have a bet they can get it to 5,000 by Summer.

    MOT – that’s why I said do a ‘mon back on Icahn getting the boot. They have to do something now to restore confidence in the board.

    Hit my .80 target on the QQQQ $46s, that’s enough for me, just wanted to offset losses on DIA puts… XXX


  63. FXI rolling over $115s still $2.45 – works for me!


  64. RTP

    phil, does it make sense to take a position here? thx


  65. Phil – Nice to see TM come back, I have a question about my long GG – sell into the initial excitement of the good earnings report here at +.50, or do you have a higher target in mind for this one? Thanks.


  66. Phil

    SHLD moving up. Should we take out the May 175 caller ?


  67. Scalping ICE and CME today just got done, it was fun. Watching FWLT the spreads and liquidity earlier today was really bad making it tought to pull the trigger. Its alot better now but now its up alot!
    Wow FXI! It could mean that we teat and possibly break to new highs?
    Chinese are diversifying their economic infrastructure instead of getting a bigger washing machine, they better or they’ll be celebrating a crash during the Olympics.
    Watching DE, ICE, FWLT, MDR, CMG, BWLD, POT
    MLM looks good.


  68. Phil, I have long term QQQQ puts and calls, I have sold Jun calls but not puts yet. Do you think I should wait a little bit to sell Jun puts against my long term puts? Thanks. I tend to like to have both ends open and just let the time decay takes care of my profit. But the the trend is too much out of range I’m not in good position to make money on short term positions. I would highly appreciate your advice. Thanks.


  69. RIMM – acting toppy again. I’m thinking expiration will be around 150


  70. NE near future = $90.


  71. GOOG turning positive on hourly chart.


  72. RTP – too scary, it will not die.

    GG – production doubled to 558K oz, costs are $181 per ounce. Hard to sell but it’s tough math with the acquisition so it’s best to take profits on a good run but I’m in for $1.65 so I’m hoping to get that back. The June $25s are .82 and I will consider selling them on a dip below $24.25 but hopefully that won’t happen.

    SHLD – oh absolutely. Rule for any may positions is 20% stops. That one was just to stop the bleeding yesterday.

    Holding 13,300 would be huge for the week.

    SU June $80s back down to $1.40, that’s cheap enough for me XXX and sell half at $1.80 to drop basis to $1.

    ICE shareholders loving the rejection by BOT.


  73. GSF
    Just cashed out for +61%


  74. OSK
    breaking out today.


  75. QQQQ puts – I would consider them insurance if the bulk of your portfolio is bullish. When I had DIA puts and calls I would always leave open the side that the rest of my portfolio needed protection on.

    NE – kind of triple toppy here, be careful.


  76. GSF – fabulous call Happy!

    OSK – great company, nice excitement on the $60s so I like selling those for $1.48 against July $65s for 1.38 on the chance they get pinned. If they don’t, then you are paying up to $5 to hold in the money July $65s and I would probably roll to June as $65 is the ATH. XXX


  77. CYD
    new high!! And, I just trippled my shares yesterday!!


  78. Joseph, is RIMM in your channel? Is this the bounce you are looking for?


  79. Oh, as a general rule – unless you are playing momentum you should not have ANY May positions at this point and stops should be fairly tight on June. Any gain can be wiped out in a second this close to expiration and there is not enough time to recover once you are out of position.


  80. Happy,
    GSF- Thanks for the reminder also took some gain! You beat me on % Congrats


  81. bought back TSO 120 puts this morning sold yesterday. Will sell the 120 puts again if it goes towards 116. I think they will keep TSO between 115 and 120 till next friday.


  82. Phil,
    any play for DE earnings next wednesday..


  83. GSF
    Thanks, Phil!

    OSK
    Yeah, I’ve been watching this for over a week, waiting for a pullback. But, they didn’t even go down that much yesterday! I think people are liking this sector right now.


  84. RIMM $150 is key, they hold that and they are green lighted for a move up but if they fail there they will likely go back to $145. I’m going to buy Dec $150 puts at $14 (if I can) and the Dec $160 calls at $14 and work my way into that strangle (buy more of each at $11 and $8), probably selling both puts and calls against. If they form a channel between $140 and $160 this could be a really fun play as this company could be at 200 or $120 by the end of the year.

    DNDN up 10%.


  85. GSF
    BillBigD, I think she goes higher. But, she is a “wild” one. So, I’m guess that there will be chances to get back in.


  86. DE – I love them but too rich for me here and I wouldn’t bet against them either.


  87. ICE/CME
    Should’ve gotten in CME when I thought sub-500 was “tasty”!! So, I got ICE this morning instead, just took some profits, +21%


  88. JPL – RIMM is in a channel as far as Bollinger bands are concerned and there is some distribution of money, but to be honest I really don’t pay that much attention to TA stuff. What I am looking at is an advance from May 1 to May 7 on ever rising volume that ended yesterday. Down volume was not bad yesterday and today looks like it might be about the same. So, is it resting or weakening? For me, too soon to tell. My current positions are short JUN 155 and JUN 160 calls. I will be willing to press one or the other in a few days.


  89. ICE
    oops! looks like it’s going higher!


  90. Big EU turnaround today, should bode well for our afternoon.

    FXI is forecasting an 800 point rally in Shanghai on Monday…


  91. Happy – do you have bet on ICE? You think it’s going to make 145+ or is this the top?


  92. Oops, sorry 5%, just 200 points!


  93. RIMM
    I think 160+ by the end of May if markets keep on rallying! I’m looking to get back in if they go above 153, which would be a gamble to catch more gains; safer if you wait for 155.


  94. SCHW flying – no idea why.


  95. ICE
    Joseph, I think it’s going higher. I just cashed my position out because she’s also a “wild” one. I think both CME/ICE will go higher now that CME has risen its bid for BOT. People in general think CME is a better fit. So, ICE not getting BOT should be a blessing. Maybe ICE’s management just wanted to make CME spend more money!? =)


  96. Phil,

    SU – Jun 80 .. I’m assuming you meant 80 puts.


  97. JOSB totally irrational sell-off, day 2. If they hold $39 I’m going with the Oct $45s around $2 XXX

    DNDN – $2.50s not looking so silly now are they?

    NANO going nuts and TINY was beaten up yesterday and looks like a buy.

    ONXX June $32.50s as mo play! Quick XXX


  98. Oops, no ONXX June $32.50s but the $35s are $1.58 and it looks like we can sell the May $35s for that much if this keeps going XXX


  99. They’re at a conference so it could be anything so need to take some off the table on a run (I know it may be too late on this one anyway as I could’t type fast enough to keep up with the move). This can go back to $29 in a second but if it’s big news it could really pop.


  100. FWLT
    amazing!!


  101. ice doesn’t get cbot good for nmx


  102. OK – in the junes for 1.60 and sold the may’s for .70 – now what – go may expiration…


  103. NMX moving well.

    Now WYNN is coming back LVS cranking too and MGM and BYD so no point in selling more calls just yet.

    MU cranking.

    UPS truckin’

    Wow, who picked FWLT?!!?

    RIG/DO/BHP all doing well. SLB should be doing better. I like the June $75s for $2 on SLB as I think they may be pinned down here into expiration.

    CAT not taking out my $75 caller at .80, I wouldn’t pay .80 for those calls despite the nice run.


  104. NE up $3 that seems like a lot for one day.

    HAL is breaking out.

    TK getting ready to go higher again.


  105. FWLT
    “chart of the WEEK”!! You’ve got to see this, on Wang’s World! Perhaps look for some leaps?!


  106. Z – you just read my mind – I was just looking for your site on NE – this is a huge turnaround – do you think bust out and get back in on Monday?


  107. ONXX – with the spread if we get downward mo we can roll caller to the may $30s, now $1.72, I’ll be doing that around when the $35s cross .50 as that will signal the end to the rumor.


  108. Zman:

    Was out of touch earlier this week. Any update on END? Thanks.


  109. ADBE nice breakout on 50 dma. Oct $42.50s are $3.40 XXX


  110. MU
    whomever it was that kept on asking me for a chart on this! Congrats! Great call!


  111. BillBigD:

    Out of VIP. Thanks for heads up yesterday !


  112. Phil – on the spread (ONXX) if you can buy back the caller somewhere less than .50, you would do this – then sell the may 30′s? Is this what you are saying -


  113. IBN making a move!

    QLGC doing well.

    Pot busting $200


  114. Z – I am out at 2.40 thanks – I will check it out on Monday. Thanx


  115. Samsung sees improving DRAM and NAND flash prospects, same news different day, rebound really depends on consumer demand.

    Motherboard makers April revenues drop on month, sox and underwear not only sector affected by April showers.

    BA chomping at the bit 94 very possible once it gets past 93.55

    The growth of capacity expansion in terms of glass substrate area from panel makers will slow to 20% in 2008, down from around 30% in 2007, while the end-user industry will see a rising concentration, according to David (Feng Cheng) Su, vice president and general manager of Consumer Electronics Display Business Group, AU Optronics (AUO).
    http://www.digitimes.com/displays/a20070511PD218.html

    Citigroup notes that due to some recent success in its stated effort to improve factory efficiencies, checks suggest Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) is pushing out deliveries of tool orders already in backlog as well as cancelling tool orders it planned to place in CQ3. Net/net, factors like liquidity + private equity continue to keep a strong bid under stocks, but equipment fundamentals quite simply continue to deteriorate due to CQ3 pushouts from Samsung, Hynix, TSMC, and now INTC.
    Who is most exposed? Exposure to INTC in firm’s coverage universe is highest at AMAT, NVLS, AEIS, and to a lesser degree KLAC and BRKS.
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Intel+(INTC)+is+pushing+out+deliveries+of+tool+orders/2239896.html


  116. YRCW still laying around.

    ONXX – yes done!!!! $30s dropping fast though.


  117. FLWT
    don’t remember, but, someone mentioned it before earnings. I played it after the earnings and cashed out yesterday. Now, it’s going up even more! It should start to stutter a bit. Immediate resistance at 95. I think, and hope, that it’ll take a rest. Then, I’m going in for some long calls. I think 150 by the end of the year!


  118. bought back the 35′s for .35 sold the 30′s for .85 – still in the june 35 right? I think this is working – if nothing else it’s fun


  119. FLWT

    On Cramer’s must own list last night. I watch CNBC with the sound off (Taleb suggested that in fooled by randomness), still it is hard to not notice the propaganda effects.


  120. INTC suppliers- you can’t bet against these guys just based on INTC, this is more of a boost Q2 profit effort by Intel than a real cutback….

    Wow builders down in a stock rally, there’s something you don’t see every day.

    ONXX – LOL Jun $35s still $1.45! Tempeted to sell the $25s but something could still happen and I’d be crying…

    S&P barely holding 1,500, we don’t want to lose that!


  121. Cramer is calling for $100 soon. 2 price upgrades of $110 and $127.
    Blow out earnings probably the bi the street this Q. Yeah I liked it alot before earnings and thought a strangle would work well. We were also talking about a 85- 90 bull spread. Thats done really well.
    I didn’t play it before but successfully gap traded it on the open for a nice 50% gain and wanted to buy more on the pullback. It doesn’t pullback….The float is really small with 63 million and small short interest which is good for a good fundamental company.
    Buy on the dips, my brother also came up with a 1 year price target after the new numbers of $128 before the analyst upgrade but it was tough to see at firsbut after factoring into the shares outstanding you can justify a higher price.


  122. Phil,

    Adam Feuerstein
    Onyx Up on Pfizer Rumor
    5/11/2007 12:09 PM EDT

    Rumor alert: Onyx Pharma (ONXX) is trading higher on a market rumor that competitor Pfizer (PFE) has run into trouble with a Sutent liver cancer study due to drug toxicity.

    I haven’t been able to confirm the rumor yet.


  123. Phil why is there such a large spread in the ONXX June 35′s calls?


  124. I agree with Happy on FWLT. Mentioned before. I had a butterfly for earnings, moved it to long calls after earnings, and just took profits on it. But I think it is a great long-term play. Great chart, but a little bit over extended here. I would wait for a pullback.


  125. ADBE

    great stock – massive upgrade cycle with creative suite, but my 3.4 bid just sits there. Is this a wait it out scenario, or does the breakout make it a mo play?


  126. If the “Cramer” effect is so reliable why couldn’t you mo trade his recs. & get out b/4 the herd?


  127. FWLT
    Agreeing with everyone’s bullish sentiment here. They did a 1-for-20 reverse split in Nov 2004, which explains why there are so little shares out there, which explains why it can jump so much. Yes, yes, wait for a pullback, or at least, for it to flatten a bit. The MFI has topped out on the daily chart. I’ll send out alerts when I see room on top to go. If anyone sees other things, please sound off also. thanks a bunch!


  128. ADBE

    Never mind. I got ‘em. All those dimes add up.


  129. ONXX
    that’s a big spike to 31+!


  130. Phil – sell the may 55 calls aaginast the July 60 calls on JWN?


  131. X turned down, that’s odd.

    T having a good day

    D with a bounce

    SBUX – did something happen to their business model? This is going to be one hell of a stock to own if they ever stop dropping.

    FWLT – well that’s a reason to be very careful up here. These Cramer sheep go out of a stock as fast as they go in.

    VCLK zooming up.

    IBM punching back to ATH

    CCJ – nice call by me this morning!


  132. It is that time of the month already, expecting to see some negative news out on AAPL to push it down. 250,000 calls between 90 to 110.


  133. Ok, let’s see what the market does right now. It will be very interesting to see if traders are ready to keep positions during the weekend after the drop yesterday.


  134. NMX is a cool stock to trade :-)

    Sold some of NMX leaps.


  135. HERO must have said something people like Z.

    ONXX spread – that happens with rumors, you have the hold camp (like me) who have no reason to let go as we can sell very expensive premiums and others who believe the rumor and will hold for 30 days as a gamble and then you have guys who think we are insane and won’t offer anything near what we are asking. That’s why you can’t sell these positions when you’re wrong and you’re better off turning around and selling closer calls against. Meanwhile just had to buy back $30s for .60 and now I have a stop on $35s at $1.20 for a nice total gain on this mess but I will sell $30s again if it tops back out around $2.


  136. FWLT
    coming up to 95!


  137. FWLT
    I’ve had leaps calendars since last July at $40, rolling the longs up to take cash off the table on the way up. As I said in an earlier post, it has been kind to me. But I took a hit on earnings with a June 75/May70 diagonal, looking for the IV crush that didn’t come. Have bracketed up and flipped it to a bull spread to try to recover some of the loss. Managed the trade poorly when it went against me. I kept waiting for the sell-off, frozen like a deer in the headlights, and it cost me………

    ss


  138. Damn NYX is still in the dumpster!

    Should be a good chance to buy those TSO puts, TSO up today but volume is low.


  139. ADBE – Paitence pays off! Now we can consider selling the $42.50s for .40, maybe .60 which makes it worthwhile.

    Cramer effect – because people much bigger than us play his picks like a fiddle.

    JWN – I’m waiting for a bounce on this one.

    I always think its good when the NYSE outgains the Dow, shows general health…. CME officially gone hog wild now.


  140. TIE

    Rumored price is $58 from ATI.


  141. FWLT – silent student, don’t forget that you are not trapped in June. If I had the June $75s at $20.50 and sold the May $70s, now $25.15 (I asssume a $4 loss) I would move to 2x Aug $95s at $8.65 and sell May $95s for $2.30 which would be no problem to roll to the June $95s, now $5 or the June $100s, now $2.95. You still have July as a buffer and you can always go further back.

    Sage and I have decided our new advice is generally don’t take 1 month diagonals with the exception of a week before expiration or a really silly (low) spread that makes sense, usually with $2.50 incriments thouh.


  142. ONXX
    wow! just cashed out a quick +53% gain in less than 1/2 hour! This will probably go higher. Looks like the rumor may be real!


  143. ONXX – is the rumor alive or dead? Seems like it doesn’t know either – which way Phil?


  144. TIE – be careful, all sorts of rumor games are being played since any deal seems possible but I will be shocked if ATI will pay a 50% premium for TIE. If the rumore were real I would think BOOM would move too.

    Here comes Mr Google!

    I’m seeing Spider Man this weekend so I’m picking up the SNE June $55s for $1.65, was $2.30 on Weds and if FXI is right, Asia will be huge on Monday. XXX

    TM – selling May $120s for $1.42 against the Octs $140s only (leaps will be naked) per yesterday’s plan. XXX This jump is a gift and we should treat it as such and my SNE’s buffer a mega Japan rally.


  145. how could 12b market cap ati buy 86b tie maybe the other way around


  146. DNDN! Can’t help myself, have to DD on my open stock positions, better late than never. XXX


  147. TIE- I agree Phil, but also for another reason. The largest shareholder is a big swinging d*ck in Dallas and he thinks this stuff has just begun.


  148. ONXX – no idea just along for the ride now. I’ve shifted my speculative focus back to DNDN. If ONXX holds $29 then there’s probably a little meat to the rumor and my $35s seem to be getting steady interest as $1.50 so my action points are out at $1.20 or sell current $30s at $2 or better (obviously whichver comes first).


  149. Phil
    Thx for advice on FWLT. Made similar moves yesterday, so I guess I have learned from watching your moves. Now waiting for the healing…….btw, original diagonal spread was $1.8 credit.

    ss


  150. OMG – CNBC just headlined “Drowning in Oil” saying the world is swimming in it! Have they gone schitzo???


  151. Spidey
    Hey, Phil, I worked on the first Spider-Man. I did the CGI building R&D for Sony. Yes, all those buildings that Spidey flies by are CGI.


  152. FD, ANF, COST, JOSB all looking real cheap down here, might be fun next week.

    DNDN – by the way – logic here is that it held $5 so I am willing to buy at $6 with a stop at $5 and I will raise my stop $1 per $1.50 in gains until I can sell calls. It’s not a great percentage but since it doesnt tie up much cash it’s an opportunity benefit for cash that is just gathering dust in portfolio. I look at this sort of play as if I bought a $1 option that I am willing to lose on an event gamble since I have a pretty good potential upside if I luck out.

    GOOG ran out of gas, must hold $465 which was my bottom target early in the week anyway so I’m not terribly worried if they can hold it. People will still pay you a $7.50 premium for the $470s and about the same for the $460 puts but you actually get the same $ premium from the $470 puts and even better ($3.50) from the $460 calls with great protection so selling them is an XXX if you have lower or longer calls.

    The way the oil sector is flying up you’d think we’re going to declare war over the weekend or something!


  153. Happy, my building was at the corner of Lex and 57th street – was that CGI’d as well – it looked so real. The concave one light gray.


  154. Happy – is it true that the first Spider Man had a really cool scene at the WTC that they cut due to 9/11?

    HPQ back on track.


  155. Happy, you know a guy named Steve Kowalski at Imageworks?


  156. HOC having a hell of a day!

    CNBC report on oil at 2:30. I”ve got my SU puts and I’m adding VLO June $72.50 puts for $1.85 even though they may say that there is plenty of oils and no refining capacity so $1.50 stop there. XXX


  157. CROX selling off, early signs of general profit taking?


  158. Spidey
    WTC, not sure. If it’s true, they probably cut it before it got to Sony.
    JPL, we took a bunch of photos of the real buildings and slap them on to CG geometries. The room interiors were done with photos of the 5 facades (not counting the one where the window is) of many, many, different rooms; and using mathematical algorithms to present them according to the camera’s perspective. So, in a sense, it was real. But, in order to accommodate the crazy, cinematic, camera movements as Spidey flies through the city, it was far more easier to do CGI.


  159. SIRI

    Jan09 2.5 C’s Have been in a channel for a couple of months. You can buy it at 1 and sell it at 1.10 over and over. If that is something you enjoy. If you are lucky you can spread it to .95 and 1.15.


  160. JE
    Don’t remember; the name sounds familiar. It’s been a while.


  161. Albo – Re END – I wrote this on Wednesday:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/?p=241


  162. PFC Energy Guy on CNBC says we are not out of oil reserves, but production capacity is being limited by governents who don’t allow it and Private companies who wont invest in it. They gave him about 30 seconds but as least didn’t bash him down immediately. Not enough to ride puts out with though so .25 stops.

    ALL runs out of CA as they had the nerve to actually have claims.

    SIRI – if they had $10 flat trading for 1,000 contracts it would be a great way to make a living!


  163. Phil,
    I bought the SU June 80 puts with you, amazingly it hasn’t dropped in value much even as the stock has gone up ~ 2 bucks. Would you consider selling May 80s against them for a free ride ? Its at about 0.30.

    Also, in your post earlier you mentioned that once AAPL splits, your 110 calls will benefit from it … I don’t understand how it would help since you will get 2 x 55 … and mst likely people who have owned it for a while would want to take half off. Clearly I am missing something, can you explain AH / whenever u get a chance.

    Thanks


  164. Phil, you mentioned BOOM earlier. What do you think about the September 40s? They beat their numbers on 4/26, but had tepid forecast. Got creamed on 4/27.

    jazz


  165. Phil JC must have been here again, just put in a sell for VLO


  166. Cramer says sell VLO!


  167. ICE
    maybe coming back, as CME keeps on going!


  168. Gold. Is anyone else unimpressed by the bounce in that commod today?


  169. SU – no because theres still too many barrles outstanding and there should be at least one big down day when we should get a chance to sell into the initial excitement.

    AAPL – leaps have a big premium and your premium from 2x$55 will be bigger than 1x$110 and the premiums you sell will likely be better too.

    BOOM – I like them but I don’t like to bet on the basis that the owners of the company are so dumb they can’t forecast their own numbers. In MSFTs case I was betting that they were lying theiving bastards, not that they didn’t know how much money they were making – totally different!

    Cramer is getting more and more lazy, now he just goes on TV and promotes my last pick. 8-)


  170. ICE – Must sell May $140s for $3.30 against June $140s in $10KP, I don’t feel good going naked into the weekend on those. XXX


  171. Phil,
    Are you still in the BBY ’08 $50 call?
    Thanks.


  172. Thanks, Z. Great summary !


  173. Z – your job over the weekend is to bring TK and HAL up nicely on Monday. Thanks for the advice this week….


  174. BBY – yes, down just a touch but I’m waiting for a run. Earnings are 6/19, after expiration so I absolutely will sell Junes at some point.


  175. Phil as a last item – are some puts in order for ONXX?


  176. They couldn’t crack $62.50 in oil into the weekend and there’s still 209Mb open in June with 7 days left. There was virtually no demand for long month contracts and they’ve already shoved 296Mb into July so I am going to hold oil puts over the weekend.

    AAPL going for $109, GOOG will open at $480 on Monday…


  177. GOOG at $480 on Monday?


  178. ONXX – no, worst case is nothing is true and they go back to $28, not worth the risk of merger mania on the weekend. All they have to do is get a quote from Buffett saying he admires their CEO and it’s off to the races…

    ORCL taking off now -


  179. $480 – that will be my weekend prediction but if China does what the FXI says it will on Monday and Europe follows through, I’d say Goog looks like quite a bargain here, especially with CME gaining $37 on the day. If they want to close higher than $470 next week then they need to do it on Monday before all the options day traders get a hold of it and squeeze it at $465 for the week and I doubt that a GOOG shareholder wants to sell calls at $465.


  180. PCU- don’t know what it means but over 93k contracts traded on the May 80′s!


  181. GOOG – I have June 470′s and sold May 470′s. How strong are your convictions that GOOG will hold 480 next week? Should I roll my caller to the May 480′s? I would miss a little over $2 in premium in the $470′s that would evaporate next week if it closes at 470 rather than 480.


  182. GOOG
    i have no pistion, should i buy some calls?


  183. CEO
    cashed out for +27% gain since this morning!


  184. PCU – lots of contracts bought out but there was no premium left so maybe someone just freeing themselves up to sell Junes. When you see all volume and no open interest it usually means someone is buying back a lot of contracts (don’t forget the caller can’t say no).

    GOOG – oh it’s nothing I would give up $1 worth of insurance for. I just don’t see it staying below $470 with everyone else taking off and they have to make an early power move before there are more options than stock next week.


  185. GSF
    acting like a run-away train!!


  186. GOOG – I’m not liking new positions here because the Septembers are too expensive and the Junes are too close. Have to wait for more months to open up.


  187. CHL- following Phil’s thought that china will rock bought some June 50′s for a $1. Total gamble


  188. FWLT
    yikes! it just opened up the hourly upper BB at 95!


  189. Now I’m sure this is program trading – someone is buying GM!

    CEO – very nice call this morning Happy!


  190. NOV- took 1/2 off into the weekend?


  191. I am going to take some google $480s for .75 for fun, the second they hit $1.50 I would take half off XXX


  192. Haven’t bought a thing all day, sold about 15% of portfolio, stuff I thought most likely to get hurt if next week is down or flat. Just being careful. Still about 70% invested which is the most I have been in months.

    It has been my pleasure to join Phil’s Stock World this week and I look forward to learning from you all (and making some money too). Thanks and have a great weekend!

    Greg


  193. CFTC shows nat gas shorts covered a very little bit last week.

    Still near record high net short position.


  194. Insurance stocks are going nutty.


  195. Phil,

    Yeah, there was a cool WTC scene in Spidey 1. He catches bank robbers fleeing in a helicopter with a giant web spun between the two towers. It was actually the original teaser trailer released the summer before the movie came out and was short lived because of the attack (maybe less than a month). You should be able to find it on the Net somewhere.


  196. rolled HAL calls to June, holding NE through weekend.

    OIH closing at all time high.


  197. Thanks Greg and thanks all for a great week – I’m running to a meeting but I’ll be around on the weekend.

    Have a good weekend all!


  198. GOOG:

    the spread for june july, august are all available on etrade


  199. Phil & Co – Thanks for a great week – highlighted by the perfect AMGN call yesterday. Have a good weekend all.


  200. CEO
    Thanks, Phil! (looks like I’m calling you CEO! =D)


  201. Out of MOT, BA, LMT at the close….i can sleep like a baby now….have a great weekend everyone. Be safe.


  202. Albo – Spoke with END after the call. They read everyting on my site and love the support. Said to ask questions anytime. Problem here is the mickey mouse analysts covering the stock. Anyway, I keep you up to date and if they get a hit at Balgownie that should help the analyst list perk up. You wouldn’t have believe some of the questions on the CC. Prospect sizes guessed at by one analyst were off by a 5 multiple, him to the low side, others asking questions about how they should model UK gas prices, just pathetic. Obviously backburner name. Don’t buy if you’re in for the big kahuna two day killing. Na gonna happn. This is buy and forget money. They hit this well they’re up 50% by year end (25% in a heart beat). They miss they get a 10 to 15% haircut. Longer term, they still win. Their selling way more volumes than they are guiding so guidance almost has to come up. Just a matter of time. They certainly have to do it by June unless something breaks (declines start at Goldeneye or Brage) – could happen but not likely to get them down as far as current guidance levels and they’re adding significantly more production this month. I could cgo on and on.


  203. FXI

    These are the historical FXI volumes:
    The 5 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,950,586
    The 20 Day Average FXI Volume: 1,825,863
    The 6 Month Average FXI Volume: 1,907,314

    This morning, at 65 minutes into the trading day, the FXI’s volume was 4,909,800 … over 250% higher than the average daily volume. Two hours into the trading day, the FXI volume was 334% higher than the 6 month average daily volume and the price was up 5.21%.

    (Don’t know the source – this was emailed to me by a retired options trader).

    IWM – in the Jun 79 puts at 0.97


  204. zman, I am out of NE today, but bought jun $80 SU puts.
    Thanks for the NE recommendation! I am also doing my homework on END, will likely buy some next week.

    Wonder what happened with FXI. Bought some May Puts, very small amount, just to see how they pan out.

    What’s with Cramer saying to sell VLO? Isn’t everyone loving VLO? (present company excluded)?


  205. Hot damn Phil, I just got approved for option trading (spreads, etc.) in my Fidelity IRA. . .Finally, I will be able to do the same transactions as you guys do. .


  206. Phil,
    Thanks for answering AAPL split question. Things like these you can never learn from a book !

    Does the additional premium for split get incorporated as soon as the split is announced. If not why not use that as a strategy ? … buying out of money calls for the month after the split.


  207. Happy Mother’s Day!!
    New post(s) up on Wang’s World!


  208. Sorry I’m so far behind – I will get back to these later but if anything is urgent please repost in current section. Thanks, Phil