Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Thrilling Thursday Morning


Another exciting day in the markets!

We have lots of data including the GDP and Jobless Claims at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45 followed by Construction Spending and oil inventories at 10:30.  I’d say by 11 am we should have a pretty good indication of which way we’re going from here.

Asia didn’t need to wait for our data, the Hang Seng shot up 340 points while the Nikkei rose 287 points but South Korea is the month’s hottest market, breaking the 1,700 mark today, up 10% for the very merry month of May.  Shanghai A shares rose 1.4% after taking a 9% plunge the day before and my regular readers will take note that this is less than a 20% bounce, leaving us unimpressed.  The B shares dropped another half a point but made a strong recovery from an 8.5% drop at the open – possibly a bottom test over there.  From our list of "Duh" stocks (stocks you can just buy based on the name):  China Petroleum & Chemical and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank rose the daily 10% limit.  Industrial & Commercial Bank of China gained 3%, while Aluminum Corp. of China (huge Duh) jumped 7.4%.

The World Bank, in an incredible (as in NOT credible) case of fortunate timing, picked this morning to raise its forecast for China’s growth this year to 10.4%, from 9.6%, down slightly from last year’s 11.1% rateMoody’s said it may raise China’s credit rating (now A2), which would be a big stamp of approval for the government.   The World Bank expects China’s exports to rise 20.6% this year.  It also raised its projection for China’s current-account surplus to $340 billion, or 10.8% of GDP.  White House economists have assured the President that running a country with a surplus is a fairy tale, much like evolution, and should not be taken seriously.

The World Bank said the current-account surplus continues to boost China’s foreign-exchange reserves, and it raised its end-2007 foreign-exchange reserves forecast to $1.389 trillion, from $1.066 trillion at the end of last year. In February, its forecast was $1.334 trillion.  The bank said growth in M2, China’s broad gauge of money supply, will likely be 17% this year, compared with its previous forecast of 16%.  While saying that inflationary pressure isn’t an imminent problem, the bank raised its forecast for consumer prices to a 3.2% increase this year from the previous forecast of 2.5%. Consumer prices climbed 1.5% last year.

Over in Europe, the markets are chugging along this morning but what caught my attention was earnings from STO, who had a 27% drop in net profit and are blaming (I kid you not) "lower oil and gas prices."  THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT!  These pigs have had their nose in the trough for so long that they’ve let costs spiral out of control to the point where $70 Brent Crude doesn’t pay the bills anymore.  Of course it doesn’t help that Statoil is a willing part of OPEC’s shadow cartel and cut their production 3% from a year earlier…  RDS.A’s earnings were another laugh riot earlier this month as net profits there rose 5.6% as a 6.3% decline in output was more than offset by higher refining margins.  I mention this now because we are going to be taking a short position on them this morning as this is one of the companies that will be most affected by a collapse in RBOB.

[Past Due]Speaking of something that’s going to collapse, the US housing market doesn’t seem to worry the Fed but it scares the heck out of me.  If you have time, Mark Whitehouse wrote an excellent article highlighting the effect that the "sub-prime debacle" is having on a Detroit neighborhood.  I hate to do it but every time we have one of these rallies I end up wondering why I’m still relatively cautious and then I read a little and go "Oh yeah, THAT’S why!I will tell you right now that we certainly could have done about 30% better the past few months if I hadn’t bothered hedging (other than 2/27 when it saved our virtual portfolio) but I also place a value on a good night’s sleep and I wouldn’t be having any of those if I went to bed with my neck stretched along with some of these valuations I’m seeing!

Nonetheless we will be ignoring that tripling of delinquent mortgages and pretending we don’t know that during the same time frame (2005-7) the percentage of sub-prime mortgages written went from 10% to 65%, 6.5 times more meaning 19.5 times more people (1,950%) are delinquent on their mortgages this year than in 2005.  As a funny aside, since so many of these mortgages are relatively new and still in "rate lock" we are in a very early stage of the problem (What problem?  Who said problem? Don’t say problem and it will go away!) because only  30% of all loans face rate resets this year but that number will climb steadily to an average of 60% by 2010.

The GDP came in now (8:30) and it’s simply pathetic at .6% (vs. .8% expected) and we’ll see if the markets can hold onto yesterday’s gains.  The CPI was up 3.3% but don’t worry, the "core" CPI was just 2.2% for all you consumers who don’t use food or energy.  In the wild world of stock insanity we can expect this to kill the dollar and BOOST the market initially, based on my old "stocks are just another commodity" theory.

I will be tightening up on my puts today, hopefully with another helping of QQQQ puts, probably the July $48 puts if they come down below $1.20.  We shifted to the DIA July puts yesterday but I’m still not filled on those as there was simply no good looking entry yesterday as the Dow went up and up and then finished the day by going up some more.  It’s not that we’re fighting the tide, it’s more like we’re going with the flow but making sure our life jacket is fully inflated at all times:































































Hang Seng 20,634 340 20,200 20,600 21,000 22,000
Nikkei 17,875 287 17,400 17,500 18,300 18,500
BSE (India) 14,544 133 13,200 14,000 14,725 15,000
DAX 7,882 117 6,900 7,000 7,400 8,000
CAC 40 6,104 62 5,650 5,800 6,000 7,000
FTSE 6,639


6,325 6,450 6,600 7,000

Despite the BIG MOVE yesterday, we added NO green boxes in our home markets and the SOX actually moved down so I will urge caution until we see the SOX and the Transports catch up.  The Nasdaq MUST break 2,600 to be taken seriously - Bill Gates and Steve Jobs just  got together last night to tell people "It’s a good time to be in the technology industry" so anything less than 2,600 will be a real sign to pack it in for the week!

Merger mania continues to spill into the weekdays as WB agrees to buy AGE for $6.8Bn (a 17% premium) in a deal that will create the second-largest US brokerage with $1.1T in client assets.  None of that matters to us because we hit the jackpot again with our DNDNs as the company is jumping 31% pre-market on news of confirmation that the FDA may still track them for rapid approval!  Could our week possibly go any better???

We have oil inventories today but I already think that the energy sector got WAY too enthusiastic over what amounted to a very small bounce yesterday but we’ll have to keep an eye on the dollar too:

Oil and Dollar

Have fun today – don’t take the gains too seriously!


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!

Comments (reverse order)

    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. Morning Fellas

  2. Yeah for DNDN JUN 7.5s

  3. Look at DNDN this morning!

  4. Phil,

    my *?#@*? alert did not fire and i’m sitting short (covered by stock) the goog jun $490 call (sold @ $7.30) and i’m $7.40 in the red. should i hold, roll out or up. rolling to the jul $530 @ 8.60 or Jun $500 puts me back neutral or slightly positive.

  5. Morning boys n girls.

    Guess GOOG didn’t want to hold the suspense to see when they’d break 500.

  6. GOOG – don’t panic, if you intend to roll then you can always roll, the postion you will roll to will go up more than the one you intend on buying out so there is no hurry. If the Nas doesn’t hold 2,600 then I doubt Google will hold $500 but watch Apple at $120 too.

    DNDN – what a nightmare for complacent shorts!

  7. dndn- does one sell into the initial excitment

  8. ISRG is hot today

  9. DNDN out of $7.50s at $3, might be too early but WOO-HOO!

  10. DNDN –
    Dendreon announces FDA confirms data required for Provenge licensure Co announces it has received confirmation that the F.D.A will accept either a positive interim or final analysis of survival from its ongoing IMPACT study to amend the Biologics License Application for Provenge (sipuleucel-T). This information was obtained in a recent follow up meeting with the FDA to discuss the additional clinical data required to support the licensure of Provenge requested by the FDA in the Complete Response Letter the Company received on May 8, 2007.

  11. DNDN – out @ $11.06 by accident :-)

  12. Phil, what is the best way to play Silver. I bought some SLW options yesterday.

  13. Phil
    Thank you. Just paid for the service for years with DNDN play. WOO-HOO, indeed!!!

  14. DNDN

    You know the mantra. Sell half and let it ride.

  15. With all of this movement, any trade ideas for today?

  16. DNDN – Wow did I get lucky, I had sell orders left overnight for 1.25 for the aug 7.5s and OXPS booked them 4.5.

  17. Michael – Rule # 1 is: ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement. This is followed by Rule #2: When in doubt, sell half. Rule #3 is: If you didn’t listen to rule number one or rule number 2, why are you even bothering reading this rule?

    Considering the DNDN $12.50s as a mo play if it leaps back up, now .55 but I want to see it rising on rising volume to trigger.

  18. Out of DNDN calls bought too high seconds after initial plunge when we bought back calls sold. Out now w/ 300% & just missed 400% by a greedy .05 ask unfilled!!! :)

  19. morning all!

    will the party ever end ??

  20. Excellent call yesterday Phil to roll TIE to Sept for 0.90!

  21. ASCO June 2nd

    News will start tonight

    Small cap roulette ARQL EXEL and maybe more from DNDN, but you should have taken profits already. I am exhausted already.

  22. DNDN – I think the news was misread. Looks like all FDA agree to do is consider the clinical data to support the licensure of Provenge. Isn’t the way FDA works with new drugs, so why the excitement ? I am not complaining.

  23. TIE- Making a run!

  24. Just a thought on DNDN – this thing may go back to 8 bucks today as Support level and back up from there.

  25. DNDN – thinking of selling the june 10s (now at 0.95, was 0 yesterday)

  26. Phil,

    I have 20,000 DNDN and sold 20 june 7.5 call last week. what should I do now?

  27. sorry, i mean 2,000 DNDN

  28. okay, looks like it wants to come on down ,or at least test 8.87

  29. I will enter DNDN July $10s if they hold $9 and sell the June 10s on a bounce so 10 for the $10KP but only if it holds $9 and starts moving back up.

  30. Phil

    If and when you roll BA Call/Leap would you let me know?


  31. I placed the spread order at .20 to see if I get a bite for now, if that fills I may still buy 10 more on mo.

  32. Phil/Z

    Thoughts on oil puts before inventories

  33. wish I had more than 2 eyes, I just cannot stop watching GOOG take off :-)

  34. PCU- Took profits on June 85′s no DNDN but $2 gain

  35. yopauly, any idea whats driving TIE?

  36. GOOG deserves a new 52 week high, hope it makes that feat today.

  37. GOOG
    out last third, +64%!! look for re-entry later.

  38. phil,
    i’m long nyx jan 09 $95′s. what would be a good short term play against it to reduce my basis of $15.95?

  39. RL & GES up big
    TSO & MRO screaming
    WNR-took profits $5 gain!
    Can pretty much shut it down already. HEE HEE

  40. Holy cow it filled already! That was the 10 July $10s vs. 10 June $10s for a .20 spread in the $10KP – I can almost smell the profits now! The spread makes sense because we saw the $7.50s trade at .35 even when the stock was at $6 but no risking anything unless we get a good test of $9. We were only playing this for a rumor or possible buy-out. That was the rumor for this week!

    LOL – of course the news was misread, that’s why we always sell into the initial excitement. If there’s a 30% chance that you will lose 50% of your gains because the reaction is wrong then it is 17% more efficient for you to take the money every time unless you feel that you will make 25% more money on each of the 2 that work out.

    20,000 DNDN? HMM, roll the guy to July I guess but you have nothing to lose by waiting. Same answer with 2,000.

  41. Wishing I’d sold cover against my now naked DNDN – but my hands & brain don’t work as fast as Phil’s in those spikes. I’m finding the psych of trading is harder to learn than the strategy and mechanics!

  42. 10Year T just hit 4.912% -

  43. Day high on DNDN says $1100.00. LOL

  44. phil, can i still do the MO july/june 75 spread for 10K?

  45. CEPH

    Added to Nasdaq 100

  46. mike_p- I can’t find any news. It looks like it is stalling too. I might take the money and run!

  47. ZZZ – do you know they want us on the radio at 10:20???

    RDS.A July $75 puts at $1.97 are the only new ones I’m buying. The OIH July $165 puts for $4.35 are the mo play and otherwise it’s a DD on my existing positions. I have no positive plays lined up but I suppose the XOM July $85s at $2 should move well with the stock.

  48. DNDN – I can’t seem to get filled at 0.20. Is it worth another 0.05 to go to 0.25?

  49. RIMM – It sure feels like those Jun 160 puts @ 3.90 are burning a whole in my pocket. Huge time value just eroding away every day so I’m down on those every day even though the stocks is down.

  50. Phil, thanks for the advice on OO over the weekend. hit 26 today, think that’s the ceiling for now

  51. Rocket – one week does not a trend make. 4 weeks, well that’s a little different. tso is in a world of its own this morning as the rest of the refiners are flattish to red. The numbers have once again been reigned in by the likes of Phil flynn with a way out there 2 mm barrel gasoline draw expectation. He could be right (anything can happen with these numbers on a weekly basis) but history for this week doesn’t bear that out. I think he’s trying to give himself a buying opportunity as they did in the last 2 reports, selling it off early and then driving it higher.

    TSO is getting towards 100% gain on the year which is about double the group. I’m not sure what it takes to crack them but I won’t commit more capital there until I see gasoline closing on its lows AFTER one of these reports.

  52. HAppy
    When you get back in GOOG let me know. Left alot of $$ on the table

  53. yopauly- might be up on China’s higher growth rate predition…

  54. P – Radio? Those guys are back. They can call my cell?

  55. TWX – is there a stop limit or trailing stop on the july 22.5 calls?
    thanks in advance.

  56. I didn’t get the email

  57. DNDN – I’d wait to be sure it’s going up before I spent a nickel.

    Sorry guys, radio interview on during inventories, you can listen for live commentary though…

  58. Market does not look good to me though..

  59. Sorry Z, resent – call studio asap!

  60. FXI – was wondering if more downside is ahead for asian markets…any thoughts?

  61. Phil: When/if time – What’s your take on AXP now? I still have a few July 67.5 calls @ .7. Was the open a flush or sign of topping?

  62. FFIV
    1/2 out with 16% (rolled this one to July from June yesterday; did it too soon, but, I was being safe).

  63. ZZZZ,
    Wow you actually sound SMART! LOL

  64. FMCN
    looks interesting!

  65. GLW
    returning to green!

  66. 4.92 10yr….Good call on bonds wrong side of IWM….

  67. Cool! good commentary, now every tuesday morning at 10:30 now :-)

    You should also talk about the last 15 min end of the day shenanigans by the crude traders at the NYMEX.

  68. nice interview, you guys are going to be doing that every thurs?

  69. LOL, we’re back!

    OK so oil inventories were not that bullish and I’m looking at this as a head fake but it’s a big one. Let VLO show us the way and don’t try to outthink it, if they break $75.50 then there will be no stopping the push but I’m accumulating $75 puts at $1.40 with a .20 tstop after my first DD at $1.10 (basis $1.25, stop at .90 for a pretty nasty loss if I blow it). XXX for crazy people!

  70. It looks like every wednesday

  71. phil. just want to make sure i did the DNDN trade right…. i bght the July 10s for .9 and sold the june 10s for .70….. so the difference is .20….. is that what u mean by .20 spread? sorry, i am new to all this.

  72. Headfake in progress.

    Here’s your gasoline import headline: Third highest weekly average ever! 1.6 mm bpd!

    utilization may be off a touch but gasoline production was actually higher as was distillate production. Got to love government numbers!

  73. yes vishal you got that calender right

  74. GOOG
    BillBigD, that makes both of us, now! =)

  75. Phil – do we buy more (DD) on BTU’s puts -

  76. Experts….I am lucky enough to own the AGE June 80′s calls ( AGEFP ) The AGE buy out isn’t supposed to happen until the 4th quarter. I tried to get out at the premium prices this morning but was unsuccessful. It is currently $7.70 by $8.00. Do you think I should go ahead and take between $7.70 and $8.00 or do you think it would be wise to wait for now. Thanks for your help.

  77. Ah – it’s another hurricane forecast saying they expect “above average activity.” You would think that refiners and oil companies would say “oh no, we may not be able to produce as much” but it’s exactly the opposite – the prospect of production being shut down is the best thing that can happen to these guys so how motivated do you think they are to maintain their facilities????

    CNBC now doing a feature on playing hurricanes. What a bunch of crooks!

    MrN – read Dr. Bretts excellent trading psychology site at

    RIMM – exploding again!

    MO – as long as you can get the spread for 0-.15 it’s still a good bet.

    OO – you’re welcome

    Executed 10 more DNDN July $10s at $1.05 will sell Junes later but I’m hoping for a credit spread on a lunch spike since the markets look boyant and oil is behaving itself. XXX

    OIH $165 puts were $3 yesterday and now $1.38 so I’m offering $1.20, DD at $1 with a .25 Trailing stop, half out when I get even (if I have to dd) of course.

  78. CROX contines higher

  79. Phil. Could not get the .20 spread on DNDN, but the July $10s went in for $1. Do you think i can bump up the spread to .25-.30?

  80. AXP – you’ve got to love these guys if the market holds up. Consumers weren’t the problem in the GDP but if you don’t have them now, you might want to make sure they break and hold $65 first. I think they’ll flatline there into expiration which will make me very interested in a call out past their next earnings.

    BIDU having a great day. GOOG trying for $510.

    TWX and DIS are both painful holds as I bought them for fundamental reasons so I have to ignore this nonsense.

    FXI – puts will be a good gamble into the weekend but if we keep breaking up and Europe gets back on track you will not be able to stop Chinese investors from taking money out of 3% savings accounts and putting it into the 103% stock market.

    PTR is a good double whammy possibility here, they could go down on their own or they could get dragged down with China. July $125 puts are $2.75 so I like those along with the Sept $130 calls at $7.85, selling the June $130s for $2.80 against those. XXX

    Real Estate (even commercial) trading down, be careful of the market turning!

  81. Phil
    Do you like SNP as play v. PTR?

  82. CMI-rocking

  83. sorry about the hurricane stuff P, but I dared cnbc to come up with some new roof blowing off footage in my post this morning and I guess they took me up on it?

    that entire rally in nat gas yesterday was due to a UPPER level low off cozymel and moving EAST. That’s just hokey.

  84. Phil

    Nice call on VLO 75.5

  85. BIDU

  86. ZZZ
    What abot the guy on CNBC that just said XOM cancelled two huge NAT GAS projects yesterday.
    NOV and RIG took some off.

  87. BBD – I caught the tail end of that. Was he talking about projects in Russia?

  88. phil,
    i’m long nyx jan 09 $95’s. what would be a good short term play against it to reduce my basis of $15.95? i missed the entry points you have in the stp for short nyx $jun85′s. is this stil a good play @ $2??

  89. Xom – that’s old news. they can’t agree on the pipeline cost with the state. It’s not like the gas is gone, as much as an alt energy guy would like it to

  90. Gold back at $666

    Z sounds smart! Hey man, I just called an exact top on VLO to a national radio audience and gave them a play that made 17% in less than an hour already (1/2 out at $1.65, .20 Tstop by the way) – isn’t that smart? No respect I tell ya! 8-)

    Radio looks like it might be a steady WEDS at 10:30 gig, which will be fun when we are actually prepared (they called me out of nowhere at 9:30 and said they’d like us on the air).

    DNDN – that’s right Vishal. My expectation is that the July calls will hold more than .20 of value when the June calls expire. The more it runs up (to a point) the better you should do but I imagine we’ll still get .35 for them as long as the stock finishes over $8 (which would save you the commisision on taking out your caller).

    ZZZ – did you see demand numbers? I would think that would be key.

    ICE jumping off a cliff, must be bidding on BOT. NYX off too.

    HOT on fire!

    OVEN off it’s lows.

    Watch FXI if it falls below $112, may spell trouble for all markets.

  91. Zmann…..are you still liking HK ?

  92. PHIL
    I know you are smart. LOL! But that was the first time I have heard ZZZZ voice.
    XOM fields- He mentioned something about the artic circle and saying no pipeline would be built

  93. Phil – so you still like DIS as a medium term long? I think you said Tuesday that you were looking for a delayed move up there, sort of like DWA eventually popped after its Shrek film.

  94. Hi. I’m new here, and before reading your VLO rule, I got long VLO June 80s at .60 — is there anything you can suggest for fixing this?


  95. can anyone tell me what the address was for the site that tells you how well the prices of two stocks correlate with each other on a day to day basis? (like YUM and GOOG) I’ve apparently misplaced it…

  96. HK – si senor but I’l be selling my position shortly for travel reasons.

    P – Notice he said “sounds” smart. we already know you “are” smart. I just sound that way ;-> very nice call VLO. The high multiple TSO remains unscathed since I mentioned it. When am I going to learn? I do think MRO is near the end of its run.

    Demand – 9.4 mm bpd, flattish with the prior week on the four week average. we get the week specific numbers in another 30 minutes. Certainly not the big ups phil Flynn was looking for. lol.

    Radio was fun. I tried to use my real name and they said who the hell is that, we want zman.

  97. thanx Phil and prosumer!!
    Phil, i have the WFR jan 65′s…. shld i sell the jun 60′s against it now or wait for it to go a little higher?

  98. WFR -lol – still have a few Jun 65′s – the 60′s are up .20, the 70′s are up .05, and my 65′s are DOWN .05 — splain that one babalooie !

  99. Holy cow, look at SLB go! Ka-Ching on the OIHs!

    Very nice 10:42 headfake comment Z.

    BTU – yes, part of DD call earlier. .80 not so bad but hardly worth it at .90.

    AGE – HOD was $8, now $7.80, wah, wah… Hard to feel sorry for you Rich! With just 2 weeks to go I dont’ think there’s much to gain by waiting. You have .20 in premium and if you think there will be a better offer you could take a few Nov $90s for $2.20 and sell the July $90s for .53 so you won’t feel like you’re missing out but learning to be happy with 1,600% gain is a very important part of investing.

    DNDN, I have 10 naked $10s at $1.05 and 20 covered ones. I would hate to have to take a .25-30 spread and I’m waiting for lunch to see what happens but I will absolutely cover at EOD (there’s also the possibility of selling $7.50s on downward momentum if it breaks below $9 so really playing it by ear).

    SNP – no because they are making hand over fist money with the chemicals, which PTR does much less of.

    DIS – offering .25 for 20 more July $37.50s in $10KP XXX

  100. is there a free site that gives charts for options $ including interday?

  101. TWX – July 22.5 calls, any stop limit or trailing stop?

  102. out HAL and GRP.

    uso tanking now

  103. Hmmm something tells me there is going to be a OIL pump later … any thoughts?

  104. Hurricanes – that’s why I’m going with the long put, sell short put play on the Hurricane stocks, these bastards will pull every trick in the book every month to panic people into these stocks but once the season ends it’s all over for them.

    Thanks Rocket – someone did notice!

    HOT overheated, July $70 pus were $2.65 yesterday, now $1.65 and very sensitve to high fuel and consumer failings. XXX

    NYX – I wouldn’t sell here. Better off hoping for another run to $85 and selling the Jul $85s for $5 (now $4.10), maybe against 75% of the position in case something crazy happens. It’s all premium so you only have to get away with it 4 times to pay for your calls. Seeing that insane spread leads me to recomment the Spread of the Dec $90s for $6.90 and selling the July $85s against them for $4.10. XXX

  105. has anyone else got problems with Think or Swim it has stalled already twice!

  106. TSO going negative. No way! Nice call again on the vlo Phil. Midget and expensive refiner FTO probably gets shelled now.

  107. ELON

    eulfw out at .65 on purchases last week at .34

    stock up 4% big spike at 11:40 may be rolling over

    ICE melting
    MA Cramer hype machine in effect
    XLE actually down??? never thought i’d see the day

  108. DNDN-

    It may be all over at 10AM or …….

    Management will present an operational update and financial guidance today at the Bank of America 2007 Health Care Conference at The Four Seasons, Las Vegas at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time.

  109. no probs with ThinkOrSwim here.
    problems handling my GOOG spread though YES – I was getting far too comfortable thinking it would stick below 500 forever!

  110. EQIX and ESRX
    both up 2+!

  111. DIS – yes, another strong weekend for Pirates would do it but we also have to watch the park numbers. With HOT going through the roof though, I doubt Disney as a tourist attraction is hurting and we know ABC is doing well.

    VLO – if oil holds $62.50 you can expect an aftenoon rally into the 2:35 NYMEX close but you are way out of the money now. If VLO holds $74 you might want to DD at .20, bringing your basis down to .32 where you might be able to sell back even on a spike. They should bottom out on this run around 1pm if this isn’t already it.

    TSO – I didn’t want to contradict you on our first show but I ignore TSO as a track. It doesn’t follow any logic or inicate any trend other than the increasing stupidity of investors.

    Z – call me so I can get this thing out, including your real name!

    SHLD – I forgot about them – talk about a perfect play!

    WFR – Yoiks! Didn’t see them zooming up. Very sneaky stock but should have caught the SOX move. I had them pretty naked with this mix:

    WFR Jan-08 $70.00 C 4/20/2007 20 $4.30
    WFR Jan-08 $60.00 C 04/24/07 10 $7.10
    WFR Jun-07 $60.00 C 05/18/07 -5 $3.00

    Let’s see how it handles $60 first and, while we’re waiting, let’s have Sage check in with a lesson for KFAT on volatility (but intra-day supply and demand kicks in to sway pricing).


    TWX – no fill on DIS and if that breaks up I’ll DD on TWX instead but I like DIS better.

    Oil pump – there’s always an oil pump. The question is whether to ignore it or not. $62.50 is the magic oil number, if they even get below it for 10 mins then all the pumping in the world won’t convince me to go long.

    GOOG – tell me your positions Jack and I’ll look over the options.

  112. JOSB-still moving higher.
    AAPL-running away

  113. Phil,
    what is your take on FIZ?

    Would you do a July $10 covered call on ARMHY?

  114. Summer gasoline strip getting slapped again. july down $0.05 so they can’t just say it’s all expiration of the June contract today.

    Nicky, a commodity trader on my site, is saying that gasoline is going to get zapped if the July contract, now at $2.15 can break 2.1171. Thinks it’ll happen if oil falls through $62.36.

    Pump is on but the winds of change are in the air on gasoline.

  115. if we do get a breather in gasoline, anybody got any trucking names they like.

  116. AAPL
    122, here it comes!!

  117. AAPL…taking some gains on latest spike up.

  118. Phil
    Yesterday you had a xxx on MRO 115 puts @ 2.10. Do you like them at 1.60?

  119. Excellent play on DNDN Phil. BIDU running and breaking out, follows GOOG and has a higher growth rate.
    Eagle eye on the momo favs again buying on pullbacks.
    MA JUN 155 calls @ $2.40 after some consolidation and a new ATH with a nice short interest.
    BIDU JUN 145 calls @ 2.80
    GOOG JUN 520 calls

    NMX dropping like a stone

  120. How high can AAPL go in this run up?

  121. DNDN seems to be in a tight range for the last few hours – is the strategy still valid with the spread? Thanks

  122. GOOG
    thanks Phil – I’ve got it all under control now – but spent a good 2 hours+ buying & selling, meaning I missed some other opportunities. June break-evens are now 487 and 525 … with lots of Theta coming my way up to expirration. A consolidation around 505/510 would now be ideal!!


  123. GS seems to be stuck around 230, even though S&P is up a bit the last few days.

  124. MJ
    An Apple a day keeps the doctor away for the past week….

  125. zman, look at GBX, YRCW, KNX, CNW for trucking all have high short interest

  126. MJ, GS should be worth $350 with the buyout valuation of AG Edwards. Its ridiculous, they should just go private if the market is not fully value their global monster company.

  127. I am long NMX Jan 08 135 calls at 8.2 and short Jun 125 calls at 3.1 from few days back. Currently about even.

    Major shakeout on GOOG, low volume the last 45 min.

  128. Dominic – awesome, thanks and good point. weekend reading stack just got taller.

  129. DNDN – this action is great with the NR candlesticks. . Like Trader Mike preaches, when you see this, this bad boy is going to explode soon one way or the other. .the great thing about it, you can have a tight stop loss if you choose the wrong way without losing a lot. .

  130. Triple top on the Naz and indexes. If this is a shallow pullback then we should go higher and make a new ATH but the PCE data is tomorrow so some consolidation here would make sense before the news.
    After the data, the market will go higher with merger mania possibilities.

  131. MJ, on the money TV show last night said that poor performance of Alpha hedge fund has the street upset with GS. Analyst on show said the hedge fund is not all that important and the stock is worth $300.


  132. CEO
    trying to pick up July 95 calls; no one will sell them to me!

    cooling off; no 170, today.

    cooling off fast!

    be careful!! See if we can hold Nasdaq 2600 and SPX 1530.

  133. AAPL marches on!

    FIZ – In process of a complicated dividend split so I wouldn’t touch them until things settle out.

    ARMHY – forgot about those guys! Would I buy the $10 for .10? For fun maybe. The July $7.50 only has a dime premium and is a much better play. The Jan $10 for .22 is not bad but not terribly likely to pay off. Of course if you had the kind of account where you could buy that and sell the July $10s for .10 without fees, then you may be onto something!

    Here comes the oil pump – over $63 again but if VLO doesn’t buy it by getting back over $74.50 we may have more downside to go but this was my time target for a possible turnaround so be careful with puts.

    YRCW is my favorite trucker and, of course, FDX.

    MRO July $115 puts are still good here, long way to fall.

  134. GOOG down volume just increased :-(

  135. Phil,

    I’m holding the CCJ Leaps at a cost basis of 3.35 plus .25 from the last month when I exited the cover on expiration since it kept going up. Is it time to try to sell another call, and if so what would you recommend?

  136. Option Dragon, still holding onto CROX Calls. .I bought yesterday, but stock is looking tired. . Could be lunchtime MM’s bullshit. .

  137. optiondragon, totally agree on GS in terms of valuation.

    jazzkool, thanks for the info.

  138. AMZN Jan10s available….$19 for a strike 70 call for Jan10 and $1.70 for a strike 70 call in June. Add the same trade on the put side and it seems like a winner to for the next 2.5 years.

    Can anybody confirm whether BIDU CFO yesterday on CNBC said he used be a former advisor to Chinese regulators?

  139. MJ – where do you get the “up” and “down” volumes for any stock? Thanks

  140. phil, did you get filled on your DIS july 37.50, and if not would you buy for .30? Also I’m still in BUD jan08 55′s. my target is 56-58ish by end of year. i have 80% gains, when should i call it quits and take profit? is this an unrealistic target?

  141. FXI – Approaching $112. Can anyone suggest a spread?

    How about a Buying July 100 and selling Jun 110 for a credit of about $35?

  142. FXI – Oops. Jul 100/Jun 110 spread of $.35 (wish it were $35!)

  143. FIZ ….

    The ex-distribution is today…..however now the multiplier on the options is 120 not 100 so…

    If you had 1000 shares and 10 short calls at strike 15, you now have
    1000 shares and 10 short calls at strike 12.50. The obligation though is to deliver 1200 shares at $12.50 (although you don’t have those additional 200 shares yet, they will be deposited in your account on June 22, the payable date). This is a strange one because the expiration this month is the 15th which means for a week you may have 200 shares of short stock which will be offset on Friday June 22……however your broker may still view you as being short (even though the stock is going to be delivered!) and will want you to be able to cover….plus if you are holding those shorts in the money right now there IS a risk of assignment at any stage and once extrinsic value is gone the risk tends to be even higher in my experience.

  144. Phil, Any SHLD play? In on the Sep 195s : cost basis now 5

  145. GOOG
    selling June 490 puts for $4.1

  146. right yellow and fdx in the cross hairs

    pump, pump, pump.

    tso of course positive again. vlo languishing . little fto drifting off.

  147. OPtionSage
    BIDU- I can’t remember exactly but he said that he did alot of work with them in the past.

  148. JPL, I am just looking at the 15 min real time charts to see the volumes and price movement.

    BTW: I use quotetracker and it is just amazing. The best part is, it is free. You will need a source for streaming quotes and I use my ameritrade account for that.

  149. Nas and S&P at critical levels here, failure of either is a good time to lighten up. Failure of GOOG $500 and AAPL $120 also bad signs.

    NMX – you might be right on the nose with those $125s

    GS – gee, ya think hiring all those Amaranth guys was a mistake?

    CCJ – I have mine naked but it’s almost a shame not to sell the July $55s to pretty much zero out my basis but I think they run this to flatline at $52.50 so I’m holding out for the extra .30. If it doesn’t go up and give me a good price there, then I will more likely sell the $50s.

    GOOG – this is why I don’t sweat it!

    Oh great, now I filled my DIS calls – not so sure I want them if we’re going to start blowing levels like this. I know it’s blaspheme but I’m selling the AAPL $120 calls for $3.75 against my other positions as a mo play XXX

  150. SBUX – I’ve got 10 Jan ’08 $30′s, and am thinking of selling the July $30′s against them at around .55 each, but what is the risk if this thing pops back up to soon? I think the ideal situation is if it stays flat or under $30 month after month as I resell the $30 options. If it does pop into the $30+ range before expiration, what should I do? Buy back the June $30′s at a loss and hold the Jan $30′s? Or just close out both the July $30′s and Jan $30′s?

  151. Phil … what do you think of GENZ ? it was upgraded this morn by GS with PT of 81 ! I have some Jun 67.5 left from an old calender spread trading now at 0.25. Do you think its a good roll to July or wait and cash out. Its still under 200 DMA … 64.8

  152. Not sure, but I see the damn DOW pulling the other indices down since the morning.

    Nothing matters USO or TSO, those SOBs are still positive.

  153. DNDN went through 9. . 8 bucks will most likely be a huge battle if it hits there

  154. The thrill of this day is quickly turning into that big drop roller coaster kind of thrill!

    Goog AMZN trade Sage!

    DIS – no I won’t pay another nickel when the nickel is 25%.

    BUD – You can pick up .90 per month by selling the $50s if you have the margin for it, that protects you down $3 as well. If not, you can sell the July $55s for .80, which is a very nice return on your $2.55 as long as nothing bad happens. When in doubt sell half is always a good rule (that’s why it’s Rule #2!).

    Looks like DNDN said something people don’t like!

  155. or didn’t say enough of what they wanted to hear

  156. So. . light volume selling last two hours, and close green again? GOOG back to 500

  157. Agree on GS. Been wanting to open a position but cant decide what the best entry is. Any suggestions?

  158. Phil,

    What is your opinion on the indian stocks infy, wit, say, ctsh for longer term?? say is the only one which seems to be doing fine. The drop of usd vs inr seems to be overdone.


  159. Optionsage:
    i presume that is an advantage to the shareprice effecting those who are out of pocket or buying with margins, right?

  160. GS – Probably the wrong timing, but I started building a position today in Jul 230s @ 9.60. Don’t buy it all at once, gradually enter the position and you don’t have to worry about the exact timing.

  161. Phil:

    Did you notice the huge call option activity in ADBE? Huge volume !!! Big spike up this
    morning in the stock. Any thoughts? Thanks.

  162. Anybody else kicking theirself for not buying AMTD calls when it was 16 bucks. .

  163. FXI – Nov $117s for $7.35, selling the June $112s for $2.75 XXX Put spread is very dangerous as China could drop 500 points in one day.

    FIZ – thanks Sage!

    SHLD – I already have so many! Best to give them the weekend to see how investors are digesting the earnings. We should flatline into expiration so the best play is to just sell the $180s but it’s too dangerous. Last earnings, Eddie let all the suckers find the exits for 2 weeks before letting out news that shot the stock up $20 in 30 days.

    VLO – I should just day trade if I’m going to make top and bottom calls like that!

    SBUX – the risk is missing out on the party but – when in doubt, sell half. If something pops you roll, which is just buy the june and sell the july – no biggie.

    GENZ – I have the same June $67.50s from 5/1. I would be pretty confident that the $65s will expire worthless after today’s move so I’m going to sell those for .90 with a $1.20 stop but this stock is generally a great one to go long and sell calls against. XXX

    DNDN – looks like a flush to me!

  164. NEM flyin
    perhaps due to the fact we aren’t going to be raising interest rates for the next few years
    lookin at the July 42.50 calls…see how stock acts rest of day

  165. Phil,

    FXI – I agree that Put spread dangerous but please explain how call-spread is much less so?

  166. EQIX
    gliding up all day!

  167. WLP-down 3% on resignation of CFO for non-biz related ethics violation. Sep 85C’s available for $2.60 & sell Jul 85C’s for $1.50+ on the bounce. Anyone else see plays here?

  168. SCHAEFFER’S says buy ALJ July 35′s. I like the stock but this guy is the kiss of death. LOL
    I bought some for giggles
    MA- flying!

  169. here’s comes the afternoon rally of aapl

  170. MRO- roaring back ATH

  171. FXI – you can roll yourself and the caller down $1 at will and you won’t wake up one morning having 50,000 full shares put to you $7 above the trading price.

    If you missed AMTD try OXPS.

    WLP – wait for it to go down and then buy it and wait for them to get another guy who knows math. They are unlikely to be lying when they say it is immaterial so let the suckers clear out and take maybe the Sept $85s, now $2.60 but I would jump on the Sept $80s at around $4. XXX $80 should be the bottom so let’s watch there.

  172. from the eia, gasoline demand leveling off
    Four-Week Moving Average Demand Growth Rates Compared to Same Period in 2006
    Four weeks ending: Percent Growth from Last Year
    April 13 2.5%
    April 20 2.3%
    April 27 1.6%
    May 4 1.0%
    May 11 1.0%
    May 18 1.2%
    May 25 1.4%

  173. DNDN – if they were worth $15 on probably immediate approval and $6 on possible ’09 approval then it stands to reason they are worth more than $10 on probable ’08 approval.

    Drop of dollar vs. everything is overdone (if you ignore the fact that we are a debtor nation and our currency is suspect at best). India scares me due to their mad corrections but all the companies you mention make great buys on the dips. If you remind me on the weekend we can figure out who has the best risk reward on various spreads.

    Yet another hurricane “what if” story on CNBC – they are relentless, talking about “Barbara” already which just barely got named and is nowhere near the gulf.

    TGT liked something in the SHLD report!

    GS – also maybe don’t pay a $9 premium to bet a stock will break its ATH by $10 in order to get your money back…

    ADBE – I already left mine naked as I think tech is due for a rally and they are one of my favorites.

  174. MSFT down on considerable volume. Any news?

  175. Brent off a buck but we “stage” a rally?! Note to buyers of refiners: rising crude and falling gasoline is bad for those stocks. lol. At some point they’ll figure that out.

  176. Honestly, what do you do right now if you are a Hedge Fund who has been short this whole time. . Keep on staring at a green screen? Guess it depends how we close on the day. .

  177. Barbara is in the PACIFIC Ocean!

  178. Another possibly dumb newbie question….with VLO back up over 75, would now be a good time to by some 75 puts?

  179. Phil
    what’s your take on DELL?

  180. MSFT – have you seen this new thing they are pushing? So far away from their core competency!

    I can’t believe they got crude all the way up to $64 at the close yet no arrests are made….

    Barbara – LOL, I know! I need to start Tivoing these guys and downloading it to Youtube and pointing out what’s going on like the guy with no neck in the Rocky Horror Show. Oh wait, I just remembered, I have better things to do – but someone should!

  181. are we going to rally into the close???

  182. DELL – I think long-term they fix it but there’s a lot to fix.

    VLO – I want to see what oil does into the weekend and what brent closes at tomorrow but I might go short again tomorrow, don’t want to push my luck as it’s obvious that CNBC is in full pump mode.

    MU finally touching $12 while the market is open!

  183. Wow, they are even trying to get Cramer to talk about hurricanes but he said he doesn’t buy that theory so they cut his bit off early! Kudos to Cramer for being out of control!

  184. Phil:

    Great call on VLO puts, but I missed the low to exit because I was at a meeting. Should I hold for tomorrow or just get out now?


  185. OIL PUMP-No arrests made classic PHIL LOL

  186. CROX looking weak, sold my calls.. guess it still isn’t worth buying Puts yet. .

  187. MA vs. AXP:;range=3m;compare=axp;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    AXP credit spread of July $67.50s at .80, selling the Jun $65s for .90 but you may end up owning the $67.50s for $1.50 if it pops up (but if it’s at $66.50 on June $15 it’s not so unappealing to own there is it?). XXX

    Well everyone seems to have held their critical levels nicely including the SOX but we need an up 200 day that has no following correction for us to declare ourselves truly in a higher orbit.

    GG flying, glad we held all those gold plays naked.

    HLYS exploding.

  188. OVTI getting some love ahead of earnings

  189. Would a dovish PCE do the trick? 200 points.

  190. VLO – if you’re in at 1.40-$1.30 then maybe sell half and get the basis down to around $1 and set a $1.25 stop (I’m buying back in at $1.30 hopefully).. When you aren’t going to watch a volatile stock like this, if you can’t set a trailing stop order then at least put a sell in for 35%, which should thrill you to get in one day on any posiition and, again, when in doubt – sell half!

  191. phil

    What do you think of ADBE jul – jun calender @45 for 0.8

  192. If we get a doveish PCE I will just cash out and walk away because it means someone is messing with the numbers… I’m more concerned with the ISM closing in on 50 (contraction). If Michigan sentiment doesn’t match that stunning consumer confidence number then people will question that data and, coming into a weekend the rule of thumb is you question with cash.

  193. VLO: just sold half for 25% gain. I’m happy not greedy.


  194. Henk…. the FIZ changes affect those that are already in….for those looking to get in they can view the “Adjusted/Non-standard” options and make usual plays.

  195. CNBC is calling their new way to pick stocks Hurricane Watch 2007.

    How to make money not of disaster but the fear of disaster. Wow.

    We of course will have to have a CNBC Hurricane Watch 2007 Watch beginning tomorrow.

    The analyst from RBC they had on should have challenged the notion that you buy E&P stocks for the hurricane potential. I do that from time to time but I run a blog. How a sell respecting sell side analyst sits there and says a thing like “I don’t think valuations are discounting a major storm in the Gulf” is beyond me.

    I like his picks, EOG, SWN, CHK to name a few but he should point out that they’re not discounting $6 gas let alone the current $8 or the price of gas. Not that they have discounted an infrastructure damaging storm that hasn’t happend yet! Too much hype in the MSM these days.

    Why not tell people EOG and CHK are growing reserves at a phenomenal rate for companies of their size, or that SWN is an entirely gas focused, unconventional gas story with production growth in the bag for 40% gains this year and similar gains next? Instead, he wasted his onscreen time talking about storms and who would benefit. This is exactly what is wrong with a good chunk of the sell-side right now.

  196. (I should have added with the proviso that those adjusted options reflect the 120 multiplier!)

  197. ADBE – I think you are paying a lot of money to be $1 out of the money on a stock that’s been rangebound between $42 and $44 since March 21st.

    Oh my gosh – CC broke $16, now I know the market is out of control!

  198. DNDN under $9

  199. Optionsage
    thanks for the info i am already in as far as shares is concerned. I did not get filled with options! For me it works out great. I am up 20+pct in 2 weeks!

  200. phil,
    atvi earnings what do you think?

  201. sorry, hov earnings too. will bad news drive it higher?

  202. zman:

    What do you think of LNG? I bought some Jan 08 puts yesterday because I think this is the dumbest idea for a business I have ever heard of. Spending billions to build storage facilities for natural gas from foreign countries when we have all we need here and from our neighbors in Canada. I don’t know anything about how the ebb and flow of nat gas prices will affect LNG, just think they have a bad business model.

    I would appreciate your thoughts.


  203. Phil…as a speculative play what are your thoughts on DNDN Aug 10s for $0.95 (about to be $0.90 if the stock drops another dime I suspect!)

  204. Phil: I have BBY 1/08 50 calls @ 3.6 naked. Should I sell or sell cover on this move?

  205. Phil

    can you tell from data on odd blocks whether TSO is being driven by individuals or the big boys? Just curious who is more delusional.

  206. CIEN June 35 calls for momo

  207. Hey chart ninja masters:

    HD, does it look to be breaking out of a consolidating traingle, or am I just thinking wishfully? Bought Aug 40 calls yestersday.


  208. NEM June call volume just went off the charts…
    OK fess up who’s the buyer??

    MSFT: I agree with many others they are fat dumb and happy
    that coffee table PC they introduced yesterday has to be about the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen…evidently the market agrees

  209. DNDN – I think that’s it for now, selling 7 $7.50s for $1.35 against the 10 July $10s I bought for $1.05 XXX

  210. ATVI – beat. I like the July $22.50s at .25 for a fun play and I also like the July/June $20 put spread for .30 but not a penny more.

  211. LNG – they’re getting closer to expanding US intake capacity in a major way. Long term they’re probably a victim of their own success. There is about 6 bcgpd of intake capacity in the US right now. LNG – the company – will bring that to about 8 next year. Last week, we imported a record 3.3 bcfgpd via LNG. The constraint has been on the other end of the stick, liquifaction. There are not enough facilities around the world to fill the 6, let alone the 8 bcfgpd and to send gas to all the other places that would like to buy it. Japan, europe, etc.

    This is one that works well at $8 gas, but probably sees sorry volumes at $6. As more gas chases the current high gas prices, gas prices are likely to trend back to $6 (maybe as soon as 2008).

    But for now, they will track nat gas prices. If they’re smart, they’ll complete the facilities and sell them off or at least a big chunk of them off. They have already sold some interests.

    Finally, as much as I hate to say this, you may be in for a little puckering if we get a storm in the gulf as they probably hit $40. They’re going to be included in the forthcoming “short on spikes” list.

  212. Could one still enter the OXPS Jan 08 30s and sell jun 25s against? Im definitely late to that party.

  213. Thanks Zman, really appreciate your input. these are Jan 08 puts so I can weather a storm or two, may even DD for the right price.


  214. P – I just got the write up email you sent! Can’t see the timestamp. Do you still need anything or did you get it all on the phone?

  215. Greg – That’s the spirit. By the way, storm track on Barbara shows it bouncing off Mexico back into the Pacific over the weekend and weakening. So much for the weather girls.

  216. PCP
    just made a jump!

  217. ATVI

    I have had the Jan 09 15′s for a while, but all of the leaps seem cheap.

  218. IRF – lots of big block buys 15K +. Seems to be coming alive. I know there is outstanding litigation, but maybe coming to a close? Any insights/thoughts?

  219. Well that was some day. I’m wrecked. And after all that ended even for the day!!

  220. DELL flying ATH

  221. DELL beats, up in AH.

  222. Never got the DIS July 37.5 for .25

    Worth reevaluating tomorrow?

  223. i didn’t get filled either

  224. HD
    Greg, HD looks pretty good, although I would’ve waited until it break 39. Might join you tomorrow. Thanks for the heads-up!

  225. Technical question. Just noticed my DIA put values going up after hours. Can DIAs be traded after hours.

    Bought DIS puts this morning. We’ll watch those for now, but at least my calls are covered. Also sold the Jun 37.50s for .10. Pretty sure they’ll expire worthless.

  226. HOV – LOL, that’s the way it works with builders. If I were a builder CEO I would tell anaysts that we will be insulating the homes with dollar bills and setting them on fire if they don’t sell fast just so I could see them write “CEO Phil gives cash incentives to homebuyers and vows to reduce inventory if they don’t hit sales goals – stock up 20%.”

    DNDN – we had the Jan $5s for a while and I still like them at $3.70 as they have virtually no premium. Sell some other sucker the Aug $10s which leaves you in at $7.75 at the end of August and ready to get another buck for November. If something really good happens, you roll your caller and get premiums (look how great that would have worked today). Notice the ’09s still get a big premium so people expect somethign to happen by then, you’re just betting it happens sooner. You can also buy those Jan $5s and sell the July $10s for .68, which is a great return but I’m not sure it will hold $8.

    LNG is one of those stocks I do like to short when it gets uppity. At $42.50 I’d be looking for puts or maybe if they can’t make $40 on this run.

    BBY messed me up with today’s move as and stopped out my sold $47.50s but I’m going to wait before selling more against my Jan $50s.

    TSO has had non-stop 33% positive inflows since 5/7 while VLO has had 10% outflows for the past week. So TSO is being kept up by a very determined group but they seem to have run out of suckers at $120, got their split and are now making a mad push to get people to buy $60 but the volume is druying up a bit since it went from $55 (adjusted) to $60 on the last BS push up. Notice the pattern of post expiration spikes followed by quick dips – it’s a great way to make a living!;range=6m;indicator=volumema+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

    HD is a hurricane stock too!

    NEM – not me, not impressed with gold hitting my $666 target bouncing off that to fall below $660 again.

    MSFT – the problem with successful companies like that is that only a room full of millionaires can look at what amounts to a $5,000 laptop (and what are you going to do in retail, have a guard to stop people from sitting on it or putting food on it?) and say: “Yeah, let’s spend a Billion dollars developing that!”

  227. Phil’s Investment Club – Whatever happened to this idea? I did some more thinking and talking to people who are or were part of clubs. I think we can make a go of it here. Simplistically, following needs to happen:

    1. We’d need a bunch of people who would like to participate and put their $s down (say $5k each).
    2. We’d have to come up with a set of rules the club would go by, write them down and incorporate an LLC to open a trading account.
    3. Nominate key traders who can actually place trades (say including Phil, zMann, HappyTrading).
    4. Write-up proxies/indemnifications absolving traders of losses etc.
    5. Give ‘read-only’ access to all members (who have contributed)
    6. End-of-year file LLC’s tax return and distribute profits (of course) to all in proportion invested.

    Further interest anyone? Especially, Phil, zMann & HappyTrading?


  228. MSFT ideas reminds me of the golden bathtub which went missing the other day from a Japanese hotel!!

  229. I hate to be a contrarian – well, not really, but I have to disagree with you guys on the Microsoft table top and the Apple I-phone. Based on what I’ve read the table top will introduce some amazing technologies, like being able to sense and communicate with objects set on it (credit cards, phones, etc.) Also might be a great new way to play table games, with touch screen. May be an expensive novelty for a while, but prices will come down just like they do on everything – look at the cost of a 42 inch flat screen HD TV today. Even the I-phone prices will have to come down. When people realize they can get a really cool smart Blackberry, that’ll do whatever the I-phone will, for less money, and from a company that’s been making terrific telephones for a while, they just might look at other alternatives to the I-phone. I’m sure there’ll be a spike for the I-phone when they first come out, and Apple may climb on that spike, or there might be some small problem come up with the I-phone, and Apple will tank. I’d be prepared, just in case.

  230. I am thinking of buying puts on AAPL the day the Iphone comes out. Buy the hype, sell the news.

    Anyone else thinking of doing that? Anyone think I am just bat s**t crazy?


  231. Greg, I was thinking the same thing on the AAPL Puts and had asked Phil last weekend. Granted, it is a risky as much momentum this stock has right now. .

  232. Max Pain – Anyone know of a service that provides Max Pain data? The iqAuto site has been out for quite some time.

  233. Somewhat irritated I sold my CROX calls today. . stock is up afterhours due to settling infringement lawsuit. .

  234. msquare / others
    i am also interested in the idea of an investment club

  235. MS Square, as I have said previously, I like the idea of an investment club and those three people you mentioned can trade my money any time.


  236. LNG – let’s not forget the basis of this scam – building massive storage facilities and loading massive amounts of gas onto tankers (where it currently comes out of a pipe) creates an artificial demand until they fill the storage facilities but if they’re smart, they’ll use the inflated prices to justify building more facilities all the while telling the public how short the supply is because they are buying 25% of it an sticking it back in the ground.

    OXPS – my original entry was:

    OXPS Jan-08 $30.00 C 04/02/07 10 $1.18
    OXPS Jun-07 $25.00 C 05/21/07 -10 $1.10

    We are a little closer to exp. and they are more in the money but still not a bad trade if you intend to just roll to July regardless.


    Z – 12:03 that’s messed up but we’re done.


    IRF – great company with miles to go up if they break $36.50. Stopped at the 5% rule today with no pullback, a very bullish sign and SOX look like they are ready to run in general.

    DELL was way better than expected earnings

    DIS – critical test at 50 dma at $35.36, which is where I filled. Volume was strong and down today but from a longer-term perspective I see this as a 25% plateu off $29, where they were last summer. It took them 5 months to run to $35 and this is month 5 of consolidation there, longer than they consolodated last summer. The pullback was to $33.50 or $1.50 out of $8 gained or less than 20% so not a pullback. The current short pullback is a fibonacci 33% off the $3 gained since the $33.50 bottom so I really expect $35 to hold. When we entered the trade I felt it was early chart-wise but I was worried it would get away on a strong pirate showing. Being held down to $35 into expiration is not really a problem – think of all that pent-up aggression they are building!

    DIA – sometimes they settle up a little late.

  237. msquare
    I am in!!!

  238. Greg, Matrix – I’m not planning on buying the puts as soon as the I-phone comes out, but I’ll be ready to dump my calls as soon as I see some weakness leading up to that date, and will have the puts ready to go in case of any bad news. I think the stock will run up to the sale date, unless they delay it, and after the release, who knows? If everything goes perfect and there are lines around ATT stores, the stock could continue upward. But if the batteries don’t perform well, or some other minor technical glitch, Apple could fall off the table. I think Jobs is brilliant, certainly smarter than I am, but not quite as smart as Gates, and neither of them are the “Second coming”. Both have had flops. Right now Apple and Jobs look great because of the I-pod, great innovation and marketing. But that could change. Remember how fickle the public is. Heck, we don’t even eat Krispy Kreme donuts any more! Have to plan to play it whichever way it goes.

  239. Though new as a subscriber, I’ve been reading Phil’s columns for many weeks…and I’d like to be considered if an investment club is starting.


  240. Will Dubai sour crude quotes change anything?

  241. Bill P, Greg, Matrix…
    My strategy (today) on AAPL is I have lightened up, with this surge to 122, on some calls, stock and closed my (sold) puts. Sold June calls on a portion of my remaining positions to play time deterioration. This latest run-up is partially attributable to YouTube w/Apple TV, building excitement on iPhone & stock upgrades. Now this info is priced in the stock so I am playing that there are slightly higher odds there will be a s/t pull-back…I would like to see it back to 112-115. But, with Apple’s developer conference to start on June 11 where they will talk about the new Leopard & maybe other surprises, this is a tricky stock.
    Sometime into June, there will be a definitive date on iPhone release, so excitement will likely build again. Should be a fun month.

  242. Joseph:

    Was that you who called OVTI yesterday? If so, great call ! ! ! I had forgotten about it.
    Up 25% at the high. Jun 15 calls doubled. THANKS !

  243. Dubai Sour Crude – Yes, they will get to manipulate the oil markets with impunity (well they do now !!). The moment I heard the news, I knew it is another ‘Nigerian Rebel Attack’ scam. The twist is, it has official sanction. Didn’t HAL just move to Dubai? Need I say more :-)

  244. Didn’t like today’s outcome, high volume and markets (mainly Dow & S&P) closed flat. . That equates to churning. . Although in terms of the glass half-full outlook, guess that is better than being 300 points down in one day. .

  245. First rule of Investment Club is never talk about the Investment Club! Oh wait, that’s fight club – never mind then… I think DDay is already putting some work into this and Jared is keeping a list of people who express an interest (a couple of $million so far), so please coordinate with those guys.

    Rule #1 – I don’t want to know about anything except here’s an account we want you to trade! I am very busy setting up the big fund and it would not be fair to those investors if I start spending time on this…

    Rule #2 – I will veto anything that is high cost/high fee etc. We are doing this to help people who can’t afford to be in my hedge fund, not to create a profit center although the splits need to mimic the hedge fund or, again, not fair to those investors or to me.

    So anyone who is very interested (as in ready to go to a meeting and put up money) send Jared ( and Email about your interest and amount you wish to invest because if the math doesn’t work there’s going to be no point in setting all this up.


    IPhone – Don’t forget we’ve seen this stock taken down on several occasions by rumors and PR attacks which means there are a lot of flighty investors in here so it always pays to have some protection. I am warming up to the puts I rejected last week now that the stock has gained another 10% but I want to see how it handles $120 and $115 on the way down before betting against it.


    Max Pain – that was the one I knew.


    Dubai Sour – I hope it doesn’t change anything, Z and I just told a national radio audience it wouldn’t. There will be a short-term bump but it’s just another sign of a top I think, trying to reel in the retail suckers so the roaches can find an exit.

  246. Phil,

    Any thoughts about buying Puts on CWTR? Stock couldn’t clear resistance above 25 bucks today. Volume 5 times less versus yesterday.

    Thanks, John

  247. Quick question on the Investment Club. .If this happens, are you still continuing the membership blog? I hope so

  248. Wang’s World
    new post up!

  249. A quick drop by (way too busy, but still liking AAPL).

    Don’t know if ya’ll caught it earlier this week, but the analyst who raised their target to $150 laid out a “bullish case” that was north of $200.

    They also raised the 2008 estimate to $5. With the deferred revenue accounting for the iPhone and AppleTV, it’s probable that AAPL will get some multiple expansion. We’re now up to 38 for trailing twelve months and 30 for forward PE.

    The quarter seems to be going well, iPods look near consensus, Mac units look to be at or above consensus, and costs look to be lower than anticipated, so margin should remain higher than guided (especially with the updated high-end Mac Pro being the main “new” thing to ship in fiscal Q3). Mac Books might drag margin back down since it’s back-to-school season for institutions; however, I think it’ll be well-balanced by the Mac Pro desktops. There’s a legitimate shot for this quarter to set the unit record for Mac shipments.

    Short-term? Who the hell knows where it’s going next. With the market tide going up, with GOOG pushing things along, and with the hype machine in full gear, I’m not quite willing to bet against AAPL. But I’m definitely trimming my positions as we go.

    Frankly, this AAPL rally screwed up my July earnings play ’cause my June AAPL positions were more conservative and are only a few hundred percent up. My July ladder is 1200% to 1400% up. And even the Jan 08 200′s have started to move. Lovely problem to have. Wish I had more time to pay attention.

    Just remember, a PE expansion of 40 on next year’s earnings puts AAPL at 200. And the E number might still be too small…


    From my current exploration of the fiber optic networking arena…which seems to be on the cusp of a new growth cycle…

    CIEN, GLW, JDSU, and FNSR are starting to look interesting for the longer-term. There seems to be a big commitment to deploying more fiber *and* lighting the fiber that’s already out there. ALU and CSCO will benefit as well if you want big names. JNPR and RVBD are somewhat smaller and therefore riskier. CIEN and JDSU are more pure plays. GLW is the equivalent of selling shovels to miners. FNSR is a more speculative pure play in the optical component arena. ZHNE is a play on “the triple play”. Calix is an interesting company in the same arena; however, they’re not public yet.

    Oh well, back to work.


  250. Club

    I’m working on some things right now trying to sort out some issues. As I mentioned either last Sunday or Monday, I need a few days to finish up a partnership agreement, By-Laws and Proxy statements. I believe I said it wouldn’t be ready until the 1st. Yes, I know that’s tomorrow and no, I’m not finished yet. I’m talking to a Securities Lawyer next week (so I have some extra time, yeah right, what’s free time?) when he gets back from vacation so I have a few more days until I email him what I wrote so he can give an opinion. He already gave me some hills to climb on the cell phone so that’s why I’m not done yet. I’ve already been in contact with Jared and will show him what I got when I get it. He can then pass it on to Phil and someone over there can show it to their people for a looksey if they wish. Second opinions are a good thing.

    A couple of things.

    1) It’s ok to ask about interest but I am not going to discuss particulars of any agreements on this board right now until I have my ducks in a row.
    2) Sure, I’ll take whatever opinions and suggestion all of you may have but keep in mind I was a VP in a club for almost 4 years before I moved so I’m pretty well versed in the steps for the formation and the day to day operations of a club. But if anyone has additional suggestins for By-Laws and other particulars that they may want in the P.A., then by all means…let ‘er rip. Keep in mind, this club is very different than your run of the mill investment club so ALOT of things have to be covered here and it’s much more involved than a simplistic couple of steps.
    3) Keep in mind this is going to take some time. WHEN and IF this gets the go ahead and gets off the ground we still need to set up a bank account, brokerage account, get an EIN number, probably a BIVIO account (takes care of taxes and that’s where members can view the portfolio performance on a day to day basis without having to set up 100 ghost accounts on OXPS), get the officers in order and if we all decide we want a LLP instead of a General Partnership we have to spend some more money and time to get that in order. I think a GP is good enough but I’ll leave that up to a vote for the group and of course the opinion of He Who Should Not Be Named. So may I suggest to everone interested in the mean time to make sure that they have the money ready to be sent within a month or shortly thereafter.
    4) Fees. Right now I’m bearing the burden of some fee’s. A Bivio account would add another 150.00 (that’s handles 500 trades), a LLP would probably run around 3 to 4 hundred or so (if that’s what we decide and depending on the state we set it up in). There are more costs but I’m just winging it right now because I left my folder and paperwork in my office so bear with me.
    5) Costs. Right now I’m looking at an initial buy in of 5 grand per unit. So you can buy one unit or 100 units, whatever floats your boat and you can afford. That way we can get as many of us as possible involved. Units also work in fractions so even if a whole unit is worth 20 grand in December, you can still put the minimum of 5 grand in and that will still buy you a quarter of a unit. This way people will ALWAYS be allowed to become involved with as little as 5 grand. If we start splitting units and such we start looking like an Investment Group that falls under SEC regulations and we don’t need that rats nest.

    Okeedokee, that’s all I can think of right now. Hopefully someone reads this and can refer it to the next person that asks what’s going on to spare me a long explanation each time…I’d really appreciate thae. So give me until the end of next week and I’ll give all of you an update, fair enough?

    Phil, if you have any preguntas zip me an email. If you want to talk, send me an email and I’ll get you my number. If you’re happy with waiting a week, that’s great too!

  251. dday97,

    If we’re interested and ready, whom should we email? Phil mentioned just sending Jared a note. Is that your collection point?


  252. Sorry one more thing. The cost’s section that I did are some things that are negotiable and they are things that I’d be happy to hear about. I’m still researching the splits issue, but I’ll take that up next week when my man gets back from vacation. Later.

  253. Sparkle,

    Yes, Jared is the POC and is handling the numbers right now. Email him your interest and amount willing to part with. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks we’ll have everyone that’s set to get in and we can all get each others contact emails and such then.

  254. dday97 / Phil / Jared,

    Club – Perhaps Jared can setup an eMail alias / mailing-list for this – it can then send the eMails to whoever is on that list. Simplistically, even a moderated yahoo-group would work which would allow for exchange of ideas to those interested.

    Also, if I can help in any way please email – can help in techie. stuff, collating ideas, collecting names/emails of potential members, publishing them (via Jared) etc or whatever would help.

  255. DJ hit 59.20 after hours…Bancrofts wavering?


  256. Rein..what no P.S. this time? Always great to hear from ya!! Hope staying busy means making money.

    Polysilicon suppliers who do not have their own wafer-making facilities usually outsource the silicon wafer production to makers in Taiwan and China because of their cost competitiveness, the sources said.

    MEMC Electronic Materials was cited as an example. The sources said MEMC last year teamed with Green Energy Technology and Sino-American Silicon Products (SAS) in Taiwan and with China’s market leader LDK for silicon wafer supply.

  257. dday97,

    Am sure the atty you are in contact with will mention this, but just in case…..

    I would suggest structuring as an LLC v. general/limited partnership for the reasons listed:

    1. Liability – LLC as the entity bears all liability v. the individuals in a general partnership or the general
    partners in a limited partnership.

    2. Control – LLC structure can define who has control over day to day activities v. GP where all GP’s
    theoretically have these rights

    3. Register the LLC in a State with minimal reporting requirements – Florida is one to consider as only
    initial LLC F-1065 is required and no state income tax on individuals. Delaware is also a popular State
    to consider when registering the entity.

    The additional cost to register and form the LLC should be minimal as there are many atty’s offering this popular entity formation as it really is not difficult and boilerplate documents are used. The shield from liability benefit makes the LLC entity option a no-brainer, imo.

  258. CWTR – I wouldn’t bet against it in a strong market.

    I have no intention of ending the member site for a club or a fund. I’ve already turned down a couple of funds who wanted me to be “exclusive” specificaly for that reason and that was one of the main factors in my deciding to set up my own, rather than join an established fund. Like it says on the sign at the top of the site: “Fun and Profits.” Take away the fun and what do you have?

    By the way, if your answer to the above question was to think to yourself “you still have profits you idiot” then realize that you and I have major philisophical differences as to what constitutes a life well spent…


    Congrats on Apple Rein! And thank you so much for helping us all keep the faith in this stock, especially during the Thanksgiving nonsense. Your excellent FA and data on the stock reminded us all why we loved this company at $50 and $80 and $100. More than anyone else (myself included) you are responsible for multiple upside doubles we’ve had on this stock and I’m sure many people here appreciate your contributions!


    DDay – fantastic work, I’ll speak to you over the weekend. What a powerful team of doers we have here!


    DJ – I’m tempted to buy a put at $60 as I’ve been involved in many a potential merger where an old-money family has finally sat across the table from some loathsome buyer and scuttled the merger when faced with the reality of what they would be doing to the family business. If we were one generation closer to the founders I would make a huge bet on it but to many family memebers, DJ is just a stock that pays the bills. Holding $50 when the deal seemed dead may embolden them to hold on.

    DJ pays a .25 quarterly dividend, which was a nice 3% when the stock was at $35 but now a family member with 100,000 shares is trading in a $100K income for $6M, which is pretty darned attractive!


    Thanks Karm – that Florida thing could be really important with a lot of income involved!

  259. Club – I am in.

  260. NVR is a great short — too bad they don’t trade options. I hate tying up that much cash, but damn, back when the nasdaq hit 5000 this stock was at 38. Now maybe they make really great homes or they print TSO shares in the boiler room, but doesn’t this just look like a stock bubble gone commodity bubble about to explode?

    Or is that an Understatement?