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Friday, March 29, 2024

Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Obviously, we had a great day.

The drop was just what we expected and was great for our virtual portfolios, which were pretty bearsih with very heavy positions in DIA puts, as well as the Jun $137 calls, which were used to offset our bullishly balanced Aug $138 calls.  In the morning, we stand ready to stop out of the June $137s, now .30 either on a reverse, where we will tighten up our calls or to roll down the June $136s should the market continue lower.

The bottom line is that  we take these protective puts generally to ride out the dips and, so far, this was a dip and nothing more.  Still it was a good excuse to move our weak positions to cash (great call by me, pat pat) and now we have to see which way the next wave is going to break before we get back on our board.

There is a tremendous effort being made by the press to blame BSC for the entirety of the sell-off.  Again, this is why I started keeping a blog of my market thoughts a couple of years ago, SO I COULD KEEP TRACK OF THE BS!  We identified this problem last Thursday so, either I’m 6 days smarter than Criminal Narrators who usually Boost Crude but also pump the market when their corporate masters yank their chain and the rest of the market OR they are simply full of it and just latching on to a scapegoat in order to deflect your attention from the real problems that beset the market..

Despite the fact that I’m 144 hours ahead of the World’s leading financial network I don’t let it go to my head.  I expected a drop and we got a drop but this isn’t a correction until we have follow through so we are back to a flexible, near neutral stance but ready to pull protects off either side as needed.  We got our drop in oil, which I have been saying could SAVE the markets (this is one of the reasons we short oil in a bullish virtual portfolio) but this too needs to give us follow through and we were 1/2 out of our oil puts as they bottomed this afternoon.

We had a fantastic series of good day trades today, just playing like fools in the rain:

  • Our morning call of selling GOOG $510s, which opened at $21 and closed at $16.60 against new Sept $550s which came in later at $14.20 (we really sold the $510s against our existing Sept $510s so there was no rush) got us off to a good start.
  • 9:39: "You guys can all laugh later but I’m doing a mon back on PTR $145 puts at $2.55! XXX"
    • We’re half out at $3.50
  • 9:55: "I’m very serious about stopping out – I don’t care what it is but anything showing signs of weakness is getting chopped. XXX" and "Radio on MN1.com at 10:25 – let’s see if I can wing it without Z!"
    • In my radio spot I called the bearish inventory report and the head fake and issued the following puts:
      • XOM $80 puts at .30, finished at .75
      • VLO $75 puts at $1.30, finished at $2.
      • OII $50 puts at .95, finished $1
  • 10:42: "That had to be the most bearish possible inventory report thay could have had. It is stunning that these oil companies can even support themselves here!"
  • 10:44: "This oil report was genuinely great for stocks so anything less than 1,540 means this rally is tired."
  • 10:54: "TSO/VLO – looks more like an opportunity to short to me!"
    • TSO $60 puts were $1.20 at the time, finished at $1.90
    • Our TWX $20s finally cashed in here at .30
  • 11:03: "PTR – value of 4Bn shares may be just $6Bn, not going to be very dillutive to $266Bn company so let’s turn that into a day trade and be happy with a small gain." and "Dont’ watch VLO, watch XOM, much harder to fake. CVX $85 puts at $2.60 have just a .70 premium XXX"
    • The CVX $85 puts finished at $4.40
  • 11:44: "Oil getting near my $67.50 target so we should at least get a bounce here, maybe a retest of $68 but that was a terrible inventory report."
  • 12:15: "In Free Pick virtual portfolio – CROX Iron Condor is up $3,660 and should be sold since it’s off target. XXXX"
  • 12:25: "ICE – technical sell of $160s for $8.30 naked, they were worth $5 on Monday. XXX if you have the margin for it. Not worth a bear call… "
    • $160s finished at $6.80

The was more, but the rest of the afternoon was more like a slow motion train wreck that you just couldn’t take your eyes of as stock after stock started to fall.  Not being greedy we are half out of our puts with a nice buffer into tomorrow but, on the whole, the market didn’t do too badly against a 3% sell-off in the energy patch:

 

 

Day’s

Must

Comfort

Break

Next

Index

Current

Move

Hold

Zone

Out

Goal

Dow

13,489

-146

13,000

13,300

13,500

14,000

Transports

2,860

-13

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,250

S&P

1,512

-20

1,470

1,505

1,530

1,550

NYSE

9,905

-121

9,400

9,800

10,000

10,250

Nasdaq

2,599

-26

2,525

2,550

2,600

2,750

SOX

497

-3

480

490

500

560

Russell

836

-12

810

830

850

900

We gained a red box on the Dow, S&P, NYSE, Nasdaq and the SOX.  More significantly, none of our indices are at break-out any longer and are falling into our DIScomfort zone so let’s continue to be very careful out there.

While oil did drop back under $69, it was a contract rollover day so tomorrow we will be back at $69 as August becomes the front month.  The July contract finished with just 25M barrels scheduled for delivery, down from 350M barrels that the NYMEX BS Brigade pretended they wanted at the beginning of the month.  For August, they are PRETENDING to have an interest in having 325Mb delivered and we’ll see how many barrels they really want when this contract closes in 30 days.

This is a scam that is being shoved down the throats of the American people EVERY SINGLE MONTH and we just let it happen.  Send this to your Congresspeople, have them call me, I’ll speak very slowly when I explain it to them!

Don’t blame the dollar for oil or gold’s drop yesterday; the dollar was flat as a pancake at 82.57.

We got out (re. "escaped") of a lot of positions and pretty much covered the rest so, on the whole, I’ll be very upset if the market just bounces back at this point – but I don’t think so

Description  Cost Basis Open  Sale Price Sold  Gain/Loss $ %_Profit
20 JUL 120.00 X CALL (XGU)  $ 10,810 6/8  $   5,190 6/20  $  (5,620) -52%
10 JAN 7.50 ESLR CALL (LZEAU)  $   1,960 5/30  $   2,590 6/20  $      630 32%
10 JUL 67.50 GENZ CALL (GZQGU)  $        60 5/1  $      840 6/20  $      780 1300%
20 JUL 17.50 JSDA CALL (QJDGW)  $   1,110 6/6  $   1,290 6/20  $      180 16%
40 JUL 165.00 RIMM PUT (RFYSM)  $ 21,810 5/4  $ 21,990 6/20  $      180 1%
40 JUL 85.00 XOM PUT (XOMSQ)  $   7,570 6/8  $ 11,390 6/20  $   3,820 51%
20 JUL 170.00 OIH PUT (OIHSZ)  $   4,210 6/19  $   4,090 6/20  $     (120) -3%
20 JUL 145.00 PTR PUT (PTRSI)  $   5,110 6/20  $   6,990 6/20  $   1,880 37%
50 JUL 80.00 COP PUT (COPSP)  $ 10,760 5/16  $ 12,490 6/20  $   1,730 16%
5 JUL 160.00 ICE CALL (IHHGL)  $   3,360 6/20  $   4,240 6/20  $      880 26%
10 JUL 25.00 SWIR CALL (IYQGE)  $   1,260 6/11  $   1,740 6/20  $      480 38%
10 OCT 42.50 ADBE CALL (AEQJV)  $   2,420 5/11  $   2,840 6/20  $      420 17%
10 JUL 35.00 AIR CALL (AIRGG)  $      980 5/23  $      990 6/20  $       10 1%
20 JUL 25.00 STZ CALL (STZGE)  $   2,010 5/21  $   1,490 6/20  $     (520) -26%
50 JAN 2.50 SIRI CALL (OAJAZ)   $   2,760 4/16  $   5,490 6/20  $   2,730 99%
100 JUL 48.00 QQQQ CALL (QQQGV)  $   5,510 6/8  $   7,990 6/20  $   2,480 45%
20 AUG 5.00 TIVO CALL (TUKHA)  $   2,010 5/15  $   2,090 6/20  $       80 4%
15 JUL 85.00 CVX PUT (CVXSQ)  $   3,985 6/20  $   5,915 6/20  $   1,930 48%
60 JAN 17.50 GFI CALL (GFIAW)  $   8,410 6/1  $   8,690 6/20  $      280 3%
7 OCT 170.00 OIH PUT (OIHVZ)  $   5,050 6/14  $   5,240 6/20  $      190 4%
40 OCT 30.00 ABX CALL (ABXJF)  $   6,820 5/18  $   6,990 6/20  $      170 3%
40 JUL 62.50 MRO PUT (MROSZ)  $   6,890 5/30  $   7,590 6/20  $      700 10%
20 JUL 22.50 TWX CALL (TWXGX)  $      470 5/25  $      590 6/20  $      120 26%
10 JAN 30.00 ABX CALL (ABXAF)  $   1,760 5/1  $   2,390 6/20  $      630 36%
20 SEP 15.00 EWJ CALL (EWJIO)  $      910 5/4  $      790 6/20  $     (120) -13%
10 JUL 40.00 CROX PUT (CQJSH)  $   2,610 6/7  $      370 6/20  $  (2,240) -86%
10 JUL 42.50 CROX PUT (CQJSV)  $      790 6/7  $   4,740 6/20  $   3,950 500%
10 JUL 42.50 CROX CALL (CQJGV)  $   5,510 6/7  $   8,390 6/20  $   2,880 52%
10 JUL 45.00 CROX CALL (CQJGI)  $   4,510 6/7  $   3,690 6/20  $     (820) -18%
20 JUL 12.50 TASR CALL (QURGV)  $      710 5/30  $   1,490 6/20  $      780 110%
7 JAN 70.00 AIG CALL (VAFAN)  $   1,830 11/11  $   7,060 6/20  $   5,230 286%
40 JAN 120.00 FXI CALL (FAHAP)  $ 28,810 4/19  $ 64,390 6/20  $ 35,580 124%
15 JAN 75.00 CAT CALL (VKTAO)  $        85 11/6  $ 23,990 6/20  $ 23,905 28124%
15 JUL 80.00 CAT CALL (CATGP)  $   5,410 6/7  $   3,665 6/20  $  (1,745) -32%
20 JAN 100.00 BA CALL (BAAT)  $      110 4/18  $ 12,690 6/20  $ 12,580 11436%
20 JUL 100.00 BA CALL (BAGT)  $   2,510 6/14  $   4,990 6/20  $   2,480 99%
50 JAN 75.00 XOM PUT (XOMMO)  $   9,510 3/7  $ 10,240 6/20  $      730 8%
5000 National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)  $ 57,410 5/1  $ 64,740 6/20  $   7,330 13%
200 Nam Tai Electronics Inc. (NTE)  $   2,430 5/22  $   2,436 6/20  $         6 0%
400 Qimonda AG ADS (QI)  $   5,770 3/1  $   6,510 6/20  $      740 13%
4 JUL 62.50 TSO PUT (TSOSU)  $      850 6/15  $      990 6/20  $      140 17%
10 JUL 40.00 CROX PUT (CQJSH)  $   2,610 6/7  $      340 6/20  $  (2,270) -87%
10 JUL 42.50 CROX CALL (CQJGV)  $   5,610 6/7  $   8,390 6/20  $   2,780 50%
10 JUL 45.00 CROX CALL (CQJGI)  $   4,510 6/7  $   3,590 6/20  $     (920) -20%
10 JUL 42.50 CROX PUT (CQJSV)  $      760 6/7  $   4,740 6/20  $   3,980 524%
50 OCT 35.00 EBAY CALL (XBAJG)  $   3,260 5/16  $   5,740 6/20  $   2,480 76%
50 JUL 27.50 DELL CALL (DLQGY)  $   4,510 6/6  $   4,490 6/20  $      (20) 0%

 

 

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