Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 25, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM seems to be having a similar problem with reality but I’d rather chase the XLE with July $69 puts at $1.23 and you can sell the 6/30s against it if it goes the wrong way (the $69 puts are .65 and expire on Friday). XXX

Posted June 25, 2007 at 9:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

Still haven’t had a reason to dump my Q puts, that’s a bad sign!

Everything looks bad already.

Posted June 25, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink (Edit)

Oh I hope it was understood on BSC that of course I wait to sell the Jan $100s to try to get a better price!

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:15 am | Permalink (Edit)

Since there are no 30 day periods in which XOM does NOT move $4 I feel good about working into a spread of the $80 puts fro .78 and the $85 calls for .95 but of course I will take more puts as they get cheaper (whenever they are offset by gains on the calls). XXX

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:23 am | Permalink (Edit)

Big rally off that housing data, it’s like someone hit the buy button on the number. If GOOG can keep over $530 it will be a good sign. Q puts are gone at .60, not worth the risk but I had a ton of naked DIA calls (july $135 that are up nicely so I need to sell June 30th $134s, now $1.18 on a downturn. $134s have an insane .90 premium between now and Friday so I’d be a fool not to take it. XXX

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:33 am | Permalink (Edit)

Nice VIX play is the May ’08 $12s for $4.30, selling the $16s for $1.20. Your premium is just .21 and you collect far more than that on the first sale and 12 is the lower band for the VIX so you’ll always have something to sell. It generally doesn’t sustain high levels for more that 2 months, which means rolling out your caller should work well on a spike. XXX

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:47 am | Permalink (Edit)

There is no way I take a long based on today’s trading. We’d have to at least retake Friday first. GOOG ATH though.. I had $40K in Google calls that’s now $80K and represents 1/4 of the entire STPs value – that just doesn’t seem very smart despite the fact that it was a good call. I guess the smart move is to sell the Sept $510s for $44K and use the cash for the margin required to sell the $530s, now $17.35 against the Sept $550s which I bought fro $15.70 as I can’t see leaving it open into earnings. I will hold out as long as I can but now that I’ve cut back the folder this position is just too disproportionately long. Maybe I’ll just sell 5 out of 15…

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:49 am | Permalink (Edit)

RIMM with a huge comeback on my $165 puts!

Posted June 25, 2007 at 10:52 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – oops that was 15 out of 20. Meds are wearing off! Going to lay down for a few but did sell the 15 $530s as I got myself worked up with worry…

Posted June 25, 2007 at 12:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)
Until we break 13,500 this is not a Dow recovery. We were over 13,650 last week and dropped to 13,350 so we are looking for a 50% recovery minimum. At about 13,500 I’m rolling my DIA puts up with tight stops (.30) as I assume we’ll get a bounce down from there.
Posted June 25, 2007 at 12:26 pm | Permalink (Edit)
TASR – I had the same, rolled to Aug $12.50s but that didn’t help much but yes, you have to pick up the premium when your caller stops giving it to you and you are .88 behind and the Aug is offering to make up .33 of it. Once we get closer to $15, there are better rolls (the Sept $15 already has a $2.30 premium at $1) but for now there is no point in sitting with your current caller as he stopped paying you. Also with TASR, now that you have fat profits it’s too risky to sell out of the money because they can give up $1 in 30 seconds so keep that in mind. The Jan ‘09 $15s are very cheap at $3.10 (compared to the $12.50s at $4.10) and you can sell the Sept $15s against them for $1 as a new or pre-roll position. XXX
Posted June 25, 2007 at 2:12 pm | Permalink (Edit)
Now BSC really breaking down. That means sub-prime not over. Make sure you have protects if you don’t already!
Posted June 25, 2007 at 2:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Broker puts – I like them as a concept but, as I said above, I got a very bad taste for them last year when this crisis first seemed obvious to me. Here we are almost a year later and it’s finally taking root but I would like to think that smart money can’t be that dumb and much of this is already priced in.

CDO – not only that but this significantly raises the cost of borrowed capital for the funds so where will the M&A money come from and what about the M&A deals that are in the works? I’d say that if we hear about a couple of deals blowing up that will be the beginning of the end for the whole shebang.

MS is a good short with the Aug $80 puts at $1.40 as you can get out at $1.75 (I meant $1.05!) without too much damage and there’s no reason they won’t fall $5 or more if this thing starts to domino. XXX

Posted June 25, 2007 at 2:40 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – $134s fell to .65 already. Will roll to 6/30 $133s, now $1.20 against remaining July $135s XXX

NYX – I meant to take the puts but I forgot. Not going to chase them but my target to go long on these guys was about $70 anyway.

Posted June 25, 2007 at 2:56 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM dropped a buck since 1:45, that’s how you know for sure NYMEX pump was BS – these guys are getting desperate. If oil falls apart that will be a whole other series of hedgies that implode.

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:03 pm | Permalink (Edit)

DIA – if you did the $135 puts back at the top this afternoon, you really need to take that huge profit off the table and flip to the $134 puts, now $2.17 these moves should be made each time the lower level crosses $2. (and top level is supposed to be 2 x lower levels). I’m in those and am getting ready for $133 puts

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:16 pm | Permalink (Edit)

RIMM – Ka Ching!

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Gold – the big inflation data comes Thursday so Wednesday might be a good day to buy some gold. Tomorrow is just Consumer Confidence, New Homes, Durable Goods and Oil. They should be more or less in-line, which keeps the pressure on Fed day Thursday but what a wild last 8 trading hours of the month that will be with a 2:15 statement!

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

S&P right at 1,500 – nothing else matters but which side it finishes on. SOX below 500 = bad.

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:45 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AT&T hired 2,000 new workers for IPhone roll-out. Do people really think they are commiting $1M a week to something that isn’t profitable. It’s amazing what BS the bears are coming up with to knock this roll-out.

$10KP – spread of 20 XLF Aug $36 puts at .90 with 20 XLF July $36 puts at .70 XXX Cheap way to play the brokers {not filled for me!}

Posted June 25, 2007 at 3:47 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Putting a bid in for T $40s at .50, just in case it hits. XXX {not filled for me!}

 


Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!





You must be logged in to make a comment.
You can sign up for a membership or log in

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

Comments are closed.