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Tuesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted July 31, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

LDK – don’t forget what you are ALWAYS supposed to do!!!

NMX flying! Beat by .02, I thought they’d do better so I’m selling the $130s, now $3.65 against for the moment. I’ll take some off if we break $127 but not otherwise. XXX

Posted July 31, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink (Edit)

VLO didn’t last long. XOM cannot get it together, probably because refining was a good portion of their weaker-than expected profits.

Cramer on again, another sign not to trust the rally – it’s always scary when they put a tie on him…

NMX – I lucked out so far as it turned up before I got my sell in, I’m sticking with my plan but I’m waiting to see how far up it goes first of course. XXXX

IMB 8-(

TASR – I’m getting worried about the $17.50s I sold! Will buy out 25% while they are way low. XXX

OSTK – great call MrN! Their loss narrowed, yipee! Losing “just” .58 a share vs. .78 last year on declining revenues – woo hoo! Just remember the reality of what you are holding and ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement!

GRMN – expectations are way high but, if they beat them, look out! Your $90s are $4 of pure premium and if they should miss by a penny they will probably lose 50% or more of value before you can sell them so you might want to consider taking some off the table of moving to the Sept $90s at $6 and selling 2/3 the Aug $90s which would be the same as taking about half off the table but would leave you with a pretty good upside and less downside volatility (but still screwed if they miss).

Posted July 31, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink (Edit)

IMB – I’d take some off the table if you were behind and rolling to catch up but I also want to hear the CC. Remember, the reason we took these guys is the CFO was ADAMANT that they did not have default issues and he said they reiterate guidance which, at the time, had them going to $40 in the next year. Now that the premiums have come out a bit, I’m nibbling on the Sept $25s, now $1.35 ahead of the call but I will have little tolerance for a pullback.

UTX a gift!

Woo hoo NMX!

Consumer confidence through the roof at 112.6 (vs 105 in June). Construction spending is down .3%, worse than expected but I don’t think anyone cares about that industry anymore.
OK, this is very funny. I haven’t touched the LTP and it’s up another 3%, I was sure I was going to take a hit on the VIX drop but I guess my callers are suffering far worse than my positions.

SOX were up huge yesterday, I’m liking the IWM Sept $83s, now $1.67, looking to make .50. XXX

NMX – got $5.25 for the $130s so I sold 4/5 XXX Dropping fast now but may make another run.

Posted July 31, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM cannot get it together, nor can BA, CME pulling back, FDX treading water, SHLD not buying consumer confidence (or is real estate falling off a cliff?) and the DIA $135 putss at $2 are my put of choice at the moment. If the Dow can’t hold 13,450, I’ll grab the $134 puts a little early because $77.55 is a lot of money for oil, even in Euros… XXX – remember, these are protection plays, not profit plays!

Posted July 31, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink (Edit)

AXP – I have the $60s, half out on the turn there (a firm rule with current month positions up over 50%) and a $4.50 stop on the rest for now. XXX

GSK – may as well take the rest of the $52.50 callers out at .50 in the $10KP, they never went lower than .25 yesterday so that’s a blended $1+ profit that brings the basis on the Nov $52.50s down to $1.75 with a $2.15 current value, that’s a $400 profit and we still have 3 sales we can make but let’s hope for a real recovery, still selling the Sept $50s, now $2.50 if things get ugly. $51 should hold as long as the markets don’t tank. XXX

Posted July 31, 2007 at 12:15 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL – taking out Aug $150 caller at $1.30, adding Oct $145s at $8.50 (not there yet), will be happy to roll that one down, was $13.50 on Friday. XXX Can sell Aug $140s for $3.95 but only if we break below $136.

AXP – LOL, that’s right they were Oct but also right that in this chop I don’t care, anything in Sept or Oct gets treated pretty much like an Aug because if we have another big drop, I doubt 3 months is enough time to recover! I was just looking over the virtual portfolio and I am still very bullish mainly just covering a lot of calls with index protects, not even short on oil anymore but I’m still very worried about another 500 point drop so I’m taking any excuse to stop out of winners while I’m ahead.

Posted July 31, 2007 at 1:10 pm | Permalink (Edit)
CROX hasn’t made a misstep the whole of Q2, every statement, every press release, every deal, has been a good thing for them – they need to break $60 soon though or it will firm up as a top where we can expect a pullback to maybe $50. I have Sept $50s, now $11.50 and I have no desire to keep them under $59 but I am still hoping we break up from here.

CCJ – no reason to cover if it stays above $41.50 (assuming you have a leap) this stock is miles under priced right now. I’d be tempted to sell the $45s at $1+, the same premium that you get for selling the $40s now.

They are forecasting a 1.7M draw in crude and 700K build in gas and 1.3M build in distillates with 92.1% refinery utilization. There may be a huge build in crude if a tanker came in off the Gulf (and at $76 in a $5 backwarded market I’d be full steam ahead to port with 2M barrels I’m paying $1.4M a month to store) so let’s look at the gift of SU’s run up as a good shorting opportunity with the $90 puts down to $1.65 and entry and as a mo play tomorrow (was $3.50 yesterday) and the SU Sept $85 puts at $1.77 as a pre-roll. XXX

Posted July 31, 2007 at 3:44 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL covers – no, I made a bottom call, I have a well stuffed mattress protecting my downside so there’s no need to run out of anything I may want to keep.

Mattress – currently using some Sept puts, 60 Sept $135s at $3.50 60 Sept $133 puts at $3 today were pre-rolls on the 120 Sept $138 puts but I’ve had no cause to sell the $138 puts yet (or any of the Aug puts!) as that silly 100-point gain this morning turned out to be a gift! Currently I’m about 3:1 August but not intentionally, I was aiming for 2:1 on the logic that Aug would be more volatile and would force me out faster but we’ve been straight down since my 10:22 call to load up due to the price of oil – gee, who’d have thought that would matter?

BGC – not a sexy business but I wouldn’t mind owning them long as they have some great growth prospects. Very little following for a $4Bn company and good options premium considering how steady the growth profile is. The Feb $90s are $7.70 and you can sell Sept $85s against them for $4.45 as a pretty cheap entry since they don’t really move more than $10 after earnings and it’s plenty of time to roll and they haven’t violated the 200 dma, now at $80 in 2 years.

Now I’m covering with the DIA $133s at $2.33, I’d like to buy Septs but I refuse to pay what they are asking at the moment. XXX

Posted July 31, 2007 at 3:56 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Not that CAT does not care about the rest of the market today.

AAPL – had to pick up some Oct $140s at $9.50!

 

 


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