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Stop the Markets – We Want to Get Off!

"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907."  – Greenspan, yesterday!

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." – George Satayana

"Look for housing sector to fall now including brokers, so our plan is still 80% cash, we should have some good buying opportunities when this bottoms but anything you don’t love should be sold." - Me, Wednesday 2:05 pm

 

Earlier Wednesday, I explained my rationale for being trigger happy on poorly performing positions in this market, saying: "I can always buy it back or roll down or do 100 other things with cash but the only thing I can do with a poor position if it bounces back is wait and pray – not my favorite strategy!"  Well, it may not be MY favorite strategy but it sure does seem to be the #1 strategy among traders, judging from what I hear when I visit other popular chat rooms.  Buy and hold is NOT a valid strategy for short-term options!  You cannot "bluff" if you have a weak hand – if you can't "buy and fold" then, much like a poor poker player, YOU WILL LOSE YOUR CHIPS!

That's why both Happy Trading and I spend as much time talking about getting out of positions as we do about getting into them – you don't make any money until you cash in your chips!  While my stops tend to be strategically driven, money-management oriented moves (due to the wide variety of positions we take on the member site), Happy sends out very specific buy and sell alerts on every trade he makes, and the results are stunning

As I previously announced, Happy and I will be combining our styles and teaming up to make a new Happy 100 (for $100K) folder, which we are going ahead and launching for the members, even though the market stinks, as we figure now is the time people need it the most.  We're going to run it through the end of the year and track it on the public site (although intra-day alerts will be for members only), more on this over the weekend.

As I noted last night, our DIA put/call ratio took a bearish turn yesterday – which is very significant as we only have (not counting the index calls) net 40 uncovered calls out of about 200 open positions across our 7 member virtual portfolios.  Half of our open calls are Jan or longer and, if the curse of Greenspan holds up, we'll be covering (or dumping) those as well.

Speaking of dumping – how low can the dollar go as we play "Doomed Economy Limbo?"  Come on, it's fun, everybody can play along!  Just start printing some money while you borrow as much as you can from everybody you know - then turn around and lend it to your family for less interest than you're paying your lenders and tell the kids to "shop 'till they drop."  Oh, and for good measure, try to leverage THAT spending with 18% credit card debt - Wheeeee!!!   What's the exit strategy, you may ask?  ROFL – There is NO exit strategy, you literally shop UNTIL you drop and you drop the dollar's value to entice others to shop at your store as well so you can throw more money at the kids to leverage into even more debt.  Isn't economics great?!?

When you are in an inflationary environment and you know that things will cost more next year (in relative dollar terms) than they do this year, you are encouraged to buy.  This is the same as commodity market contango.  Unfortunately, when the consumer slows down enough to scare the sellers into discounting their wares and this continues long enough to form a pattern, the market (starting this quarter with Housing and Oil) slips into backwardation, where the anticipated future price of things is lower than the current price.  This causes buyers to put off purchase decisions (especially in an uncertain jobs/economic environment) leading to lower prices, leading to layoffs, leading to more uncertainty…  Do that for 2 consecutive quarters and it's called a recession!

Japan's been in a recession since 1990, when they were the bag holders in the last great US real estate bubble (this time we're holding our own bag thank you).  You would think they'd have learned but, after 18 years of deflation, they still send their money over here to pump up our economy on the very strained theory that we are their #1 market and the American consumer is worth saving.  Unfortunately, after 6 straight years (Happy 9/11 anniversary, by the way) of unnaturally attempting to resurrect the US consumer any way they can, the G7 have created quite a monster, a monster that is becoming  a threat to the very economy that fathered it!

The Nikkei continued to pull back today on fears that a continued decline in the dollar will hurt their export-driven economy and the Hang Seng continued to drift lower as the Shanghai Central Bank RAISED the reserve requirement by 0.5% to curb "excessive money and credit growth."  The Shanghai composite dropped 2.2%.

Europe was in a good mood before they saw our jobs data and then fell right off a cliff at 8:30 am (EST).  This comes the day after the ECB poured $57.7Bn on their market bonfire. 

The US jobs report was – 4,000 (vs. +112,000 expected).  July jobs numbers were revised down from 92,000 to 68,000 (down 26%) and June Jobs were adjusted down from (and I kid you not) 126,000 to just 69,000 (down 45%).  Unemployment held steady at 4.6% but average hourly earnings were UP 0.3% with no change in the 33.8-hour average work week.  This is our first decline in jobs since 2003 and the inflationary component of wages still makes Fed action iffy!

This may be a good time to revisit my December 9th article, "Burn Dollars to Fight Gravity" where I pretty much laid out the course I predicted for the year saying "Starting with our space flight motif…  As any rocket scientist will tell you (and I know some), physics are a real bitch if you ignore them.  So cutting the boosters, or running out of fuel, when you still have .001% of the Earth’s gravity to fight off may feel good for a while and you will float – but you will also EVENTUALLY, INEVITABLY experience ORBITAL DECAY!" 

I'm excited about all this because it gives us a chance to revisit my "Stock Market Physics" theories.  Like any good market astronaut, it is time to do some major math calculation to determine the proper angle of descent.  As you are probably away, miscalculations can be fatal on reentry but over at PSW we have plenty of fuel (cash) ready to go but we are certainly not going to rush into things.  This is why we hedge out our positions, in a crisis, we have bought ourselves time to examine the data in a calm and organized fashion…

The Dow was at 13,050 just last Wednesday so don't be shocked if we see it again in this downturn.  Of course we need to hold 13,000 but that's a long way down and I said to members this morning: "Don’t forget that a single word from Bernanke can reverse this market 250 points – as stupid as that would be…Greenspan, Unemployment revisions, sub-prime news, lots of recession talk in the media… Do not be fooled, this seems to me, timing-wise, like a massively coordinated attempt to force the fed to ease – it’s the only thing that will fund $70 oil through the end of the year and this is Bush/Cheney’s constituency’s last chance to cash in before they lose power so I doubt they give a damn about anything else."

For today, I would be pleased if we don't drop 200 points – those were some TERRIBLE jobs numbers but, on the other hand, rallying back in celebration of more gasoline being thrown on our fire is the kind of economic policy you would expect in "Lord of the Flies," not from the Leaders of the free World (oh wait, that's Europe now isn't it?).

I have little funny to say about today, let's watch the open and be ready to layer our mattress plays but we are not going to get careless (as I did Tuesday) and leave the upside uncovered into the close (or on a turn).

Be very, very careful out there!

 


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  1. Phil,
    New to the site but thoroughly enjoy you commentary style. Given your bearish intermediate-term take on crude oil prices, why focus on options in the oil majors versus options on the product itself, or even a surrogate such as USO?


  2. ic_trades – you’re name reminds me of the movie The Sixth Sense… in these markets I can just hear some creepy kid whisper, “I see dead trades!!!”. Spooky…

    8-)


  3. Welcome IC! I would play USO if I thought it were a good enough candidate. While it is a valid put, I just find the options less attractive on a risk/reward ratio than I do bloated XOM, which has a lot of room to go down. There are lots of good downside oil plays to make if the damn really breaks but I don’t see USO going much below 50, maybe 47.50 while I think XOM could be back at $70 in short order if we get a real market turn in oil.


  4. Phil – did you see that nice pop down on the USDJPY? 115.20 TO 114.14 currenty (in about 35 minutes).


  5. US August non-farm payrolls down 4,000, first drop in four years
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


  6. I dreamt that gold going to $1000…what a crazy dream. Dan, would you still recommend adding AU & GDX to existing positions here? Thanks.

    j


  7. phil,
    i’d like to sell some calls on open positions today, AAPL, GOOG, a few others. would you do it at the open, or wait. and if you would wait, what might be the signals for good timing for this today?

    thanks very much in advance!


  8. karmcon
    Posted September 7, 2007 at 7:20 am | Permalink
    Have been listening/watching CNBC last couple of hours and I am totally confused….large majority are claiming the housing “issue” still hasn’t/won’t effect the overall U.S. economy????? Maybe I am being too simplistic in my thinking, but if the home builders cut building and banks are facing record number of foreclosure actions, doesn’t that equate to less work (= unemployment increase) for carpenters, plumbers, electricians, day laborers, architects, landscape/construction/civil engineers, developers, lumber co’s, sheet rock mfc’s, appliance mfc’s and on and on….not to mention a lower tax base for all those municipalities who had ratcheted up their budgets due to higher appraised real property????? Throw in the banks and other financial institutions laying off the young VPs and those highly paid tellers and/or having to actually own residential property (which they aren’t good at) which they then sell at firesale prices and drag all the other comps in the area down. How is the overall economy resilient to this, or am I missing something???

    karmcon
    Posted September 7, 2007 at 7:31 am | Permalink
    I also read yesterday that cc co’s (inparticular Capital One, COF) started targeting subprime customers with the thought that this type of consumer will not quit spending even when facing foreclosure, so why not give them a credit card and capitalize on that tendency (dependency)? Again, I may be just a Simpleton, but if one can’t pay their mortgage, why would you think they will pay their credit card (because it is less?)?? When the 50B in ARMS reset in October, my gut tells me mortgage AND credit card payments will decrease substantially. Accordingly, am dipping my toes into the COF Jan 65’s, which actually dropped .60 yesterday. Am I out in right field on this one??? Pros or cons appreciated.

    karmcon
    Posted September 7, 2007 at 7:35 am | Permalink
    According to Reuters, Lehman Brothers (LEH) and National City are cutting 2,150 mortgage jobs. I guess these people don’t fit into the overall economy outlook though?


  9. Phil,

    What is the strategy for the DIA mix if you are overweighted to the bearish side? would we look to sell calls and let the puts run or buy more calls to balance them out as the market goes lower?

    Thanks much,

    Zinger


  10. This is looking extremely bloody in pre open trading :shock:


  11. Phil, your Bill Poole commentary is just hysterical !

    Alan Greenspan does it again ! All of a sudden at 85 years old the dude learns how to speak in clear sentences (for big bucks of course).

    That they couldn’t cook the books on the jobs number is scary.


  12. Or will they think that Fed is going to cut for sure now and close back up today? Given the action in recent days i wouldnnt be surprised..


  13. Karmcon, I agree with all of this. I have some COF puts as well.


  14. At least this looks good for my short positions in RIMM, XOM, OIH, CROX, SU, FXI and BIDU.


  15. Phil,

    For those stocks/options that are not covered, should we buy cover at the open or see if this settles down/up/flat? Also, I want to increase my bearish position, so start buying into the next layer of the mattress on the open?

    You suggestions are greatly appreciated!


  16. Windywheel, I have always tried to sell calls when the stock is peaking temporarily to grab all that artificial premium….selling calls in a declining market I am not overly comfortable with, but will see what Master has to say :!:

    Signed;

    Grasshopper


  17. How funny would it be for the shorts if the markets gap down at the low and then steady rises all day. . don’t see it happening, nobody will want to hold equities this Friday afternoon. . Most likely if there is any type of buying, everyone in their brother will be shorting. .


  18. grasshopper,
    thanks so much, that’s what i was thinking too.
    interested in hearing master’s point of view too.


  19. KFT, BUD

    Phil, what’s your take on the Consumer Goods sector. are they typically more defensive in a bearish environment? My spreads on both seem to be doing quite well.

    thanks as always .. Brian


  20. Might be a good day to talk football.


  21. USDJPY – yeah, that was a good call yesterday!

    Selling calls, if you haven’t sold them yet its going to be tricky. We need to see if we hold recent lows but OUCH in general! Best bet is to sell the calls that are just in the money or barely out of the money as downside mo plays but you have to be ready to cut and run if we turn. Don’t forget that a single word from Bernanke can reverse this market 250 points – as stupid as that would be… And they would make J’s gold $1,000 dreams come true!

    DIA – if we start breaking lower after the open, we dump the calls, layer the puts (buying the next level down in the sept DIA puts that costs about $2) and keep doing that, setting very tight stops on each position that goes up .25 with a .25 possible loss on the last posiiton you take.

    Greenspan, Unemployment revisions, sub-prime news, lots of recession talk in the media… Do not be fooled, this seems to me, timing-wise, like a massively coordinated attempt to force the fed to ease – it’s the only thing that will fund $70 oil through the end of the year and this is Bush/Cheney’s constituency’s last chance to cash in before they lose power so I doubt they give a damn about anything else.


  22. I don’t think the jobs numbers have ever been on the level. Those things get revised by huge percentages every time they’re released and then there is the inevitable squabbling over the methodology.

    Do you count people that have stopped looking for a job or have been out of work so long they’ve been dropped from unemployment? What about the guy who has been “down-timed” from a 40-hr week to a 25-hr week so that his employer could drop his benefits? How do you count all the self-employed people? It goes on and on.

    Interestingly, on the Yahoo finance front page this morning there was one of those highly-inaccurate web-polls asking whether or not you believed the sub-prime mess was going to get worse or had just reached its bottom. 66% said it will get worse.


  23. Jobs report…
    I am glad I don’t use the analyst’s ‘dart board’ that guess the jobs number, how can you be off from +110,00 to a negative 4000!


  24. SPY Formed Channel in After hours

    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/spyah.png


  25. Phil,

    I sold some AAPL Sep 130′s for 6.90 yesterday, should I hold on to those a while longer?

    Thanks


  26. IBM is not “Happy!” Stopped?


  27. Looks like oil peaked yesterday.


  28. don’t worry about the retrace, SPY still in channel


  29. AUY – what’s up? Plunging against metals gap up & fade?


  30. Yev – the sep 130′s have 15 days left.. and the premium is about 4.2.. which will decay in an accelerated fashion.. (roughly 30 cents a day, including weekend days, or a dollar by monday).. If I were an apple hater, I’d wait a bit before selling them, and watch that premium decay.. but you asked the question, so you must follow the rules: When in doubt, sell half!

    Since they’re at the money, they will be the most prone to violent swings with the stock price (high gamma).. so the stress of that particular call will be high in the 2 weeks to come..

    -Peter


  31. Spy out of channel, any ideas why people are buying? Or did it just too oversold in the morning? Could be a run to wholesale


  32. Hope whoever asked for a gold play yesterday took my suggestion on NTO!!!


  33. Peter,

    I guess I should of been more clear, I sold Sep 130′s yesterday for 6.90 as protection against my Oct 140′s. Given the current trend I don’t mind waiting a bit longer and let the premium bleed.


  34. Not a lot of volume; don’t see any panic selling here.


  35. PPT?


  36. I think the wait is now for the Fed decision cap


  37. Phil, should I sleep on XOM oct 85 puts, and COP oct 80 puts, over the weekend?


  38. Invetories at .2%


  39. yev – I figured they were against something.. as of now, you’re up about 1.5 on the caller.. not a bad return for a night.. And considering apple is getting a lot of decent to good press for their 100 rebate for iPhone owners, I personally wouldn’t bet against apple at 130.. 145 maybe (where i’ve sold calls..)

    of course, Phil’s gut & reasoning is better than mine.. I’m just trying to convert some of what I’ve learned here into teaching.. -Peter


  40. CAP- I agree looks Ok right now. But this afternoon who knows.LOL


  41. Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% sorry. Smaller than expected.


  42. MOT showing strength, chart looks mucho bullish


  43. Cap – do you mind me asking when you got into the put trades mentioned above? Also if there was a signal or “tell” you saw that encouraged you to enter those short positions?

    Thanks


  44. Look at MOT go against the flow + 1.6%


  45. Yev – side note, I personally can’t buy back any position for 30 days (employer rule.. sucks).. thus I had to be much more careful with my callers.. thus my 145s (and they’re octs..) -Peter


  46. Be very careful here, I don’t think anyone knows what the hell is going on. The optimists are bargain hunting but we’re coming into the 9/11 anniversary weekend and I am NOT buying today (other than covers) but I’m not dumping either – just going to add protects to the downside if we keep going that way.

    IBM – I’m holding mine. Happy stopped out of AAPL and BIDU (I’m short on it anyway) but IBM was a 5 contract entry for me so I’m willing to watch it through $3.50 for a possible DD.

    20% bounce off 13,200 (-130, 13,233) is meaningless psychological bounce so don’t read into that until we are clear of 13,250, which is doubtful with the Nasdaq leading us down. Getting another shot at GOOG calls thank goodness because I was reallly mad they got away from me (not yet though).


  47. UBS analyst says that credits could cost apple $100 Mil, that doesnt make sense. Definitely less that 1 mil Iphone sold before the price cut and the rebate is not a cash rebate, its a store credit. Those $100 credits might only cost them $50 in the end


  48. foto – I used to be on the asset managment side, and had to hold for 60 days!! Sux. I feel your pain…


  49. NEM up again PAAS down


  50. Did MOT fire that CEO yet?.. I read him in fortune when he was new… Still think he’s a douche. I can’t believe I own that company.

    Phil – You could be right with your conspiracy… Oil inventories lower than expected… Lots of bad news….. etc…. All in Bush’s favor… But aren’t all these stats collected by different people? The only stats that I could see him manipulating is probably oil…. But employment?


  51. Peter,

    You must be working for a financial institution, I am surprised they let you trade options period. I have some relatives working for a financial, they can only buy and sell stocks with the same 30 day restriction. I guess different rules for different companies.

    Thanks for your thoughts, I generally don’t bet to the downside on Apple, but with the markets as they are at the moment, trying to have some protection. I still get into situations where I know I should take protection earlier but I don’t until the stock is down more. Selling at 145 was a great move for you, perhaps that 30 day rule is good at times :)


  52. Wow, dollar below 80!

    USO – we spoke about this one this morning, notice it’s not down..

    Oops, here we go! Broke 13,200. Now it’s up to us to retake it.


  53. Can somebody please guide me how to access the Happy 100 portfolio


  54. ZUMZ-Dropping like a rock, like many others. Puts are rocking now. Congrats to everyone here who stayed bearish during this fake rally. That was not easy but it has been very profitable in the last 3 days and charts are really looking ugly now.
    Greg, I hope you did not give up on those puts :)


  55. Phil,

    IBM- does it make any sense to sell some sep calls against our purchase of IBM Oct 115 `s yesterday?

    Thanks


  56. OIL Services acting tough SLB RIG DO


  57. Phil et al, I bought QQQQ Oct 49 puts yesterday at 1.54. If you wanted to maintain limited downside protection, which would you sell, the Sept 49′s or the Oct 48′s?


  58. Optrader – puts. “good things… mazel… good things”


  59. Optrader, still have my QQQQ puts even added Oct 49s & 48s, but I am so far down that I’ll need QQQQ below 47 just to break even, so I still think I am a putz.

    I also believe there is a chance we go way below QQQQ 47 all the way to 40ish in Oct/Nov. But if I can get even, I will get out and only hold a small properly sized short position.


  60. yev – unfortunately I didn’t sell @ 145, I sold the 145s.. not at the top either.. such is life..

    yes, financial institution.. actually in equity derivatives.. surprise surprise.. technology side though, so I get to build some pretty darn handy tools.. (and with phil’s help here, I know how to use them…) I don’t think I’m allowed to go naked short though.. and the 30 day thing definitely sucks.. If I ever leave here, trading restrictions will be a factor in where I go next.. -Peter


  61. Optrader – Not easy is right. Shorting things are a lot harder than buying things. Charts are crap if the fed cuts.


  62. Not much green today TLT GLD CEF
    The Dow futures dropped 50 points this morning in the blink of an eye when the jobs report hit


  63. Greg; hard to answer; too many positions from diff times. Some are puts; some are short calls.
    Some recent; some go back a week or two. Some are Phil ideas that I liked; some mine. Some I am up on, some I am flat or down on. I am in pretty good shape on these and for the most part, option deterioration works in my favor.

    XOM … short 90 calls for example. Long 85 puts, now closed. Short stock, now closed. Holding the 90 calls short for now; let them deteriorate or hopefully expire worthless. 1/2 covered w/ 95′s, only to limit the margin requirements.


  64. RIMM, short the 90 and 93.3 calls. Small amounts.


  65. JULIET- Still Holding DRYS? Hanging tough!


  66. look at intraday chart on NYX… We got a short mo play or what?


  67. so all this talk about a suprise rate cut. when would this happen? does the fed have to wait for the next meeting (sept 19?) or can they come out and say ‘suprise’ out of nowhere anytime? i always thought they had to wait for a meeting but from everything i’m reading everyone is apparently demanding one Right Now?


  68. Name the Tom Petty song that comes to mind at this moment.


  69. Phil,
    You said that the dollar was below 80. Where can you look up that stat? 80 has been the Maginot Line for a long, long time. A rate cut should only make it go down more, no? But gold stocks aren’t doing that great today either. XAU barely up, no, make that actually down.


  70. Refugee?


  71. Its Sept 7 and some idiot on CNBC talking about an emergency cut before Sep 18. What a joke.


  72. I’m gambling w/ some mining profits on Sept & Oct AUY calls from 11.5. I can’t see them running so hard against the rest of the herd simply on Meridian news – but what do I know?


  73. Peter – I work for a pure agency broker (private, no principal trading) and our model FINALLY allows me to trade daily. I have to hold overnight so I can’t participate in the same option 4 or 5 times in a day like some of you cats, but still much better than the 30+ day rule. As far as the “factor” you were talking about, check execution only brokers out… different strokes for different folks.

    BTW, if anyone in Dallas is going to this I’ll be there tonight for cocktails:

    http://www.dallastraders.net/documents/2007ConventionRegistration.pdf


  74. Breakdown!

    If you’re short and itching to ring the register, “the waiting is the hardest part” . . . .


  75. That was an answer to the Tom Petty post, BTW . . . .


  76. so dissapointed i didnt grab some puts yesterday. had my finger on the trigger


  77. Greg-You need Qs at 47 to breakeven? That’s just crazy, you must have bought a bunch at the bottom…Well, good luck, you might see it sooner than later.


  78. BillBigD, so far DRYS hanging tough but how long in this market environment.

    j


  79. Meetings are sometimes -rarely- too late.

    Bernanke is an academic, he only looks at data and draws conclusions from them. Some think that if they could manipulate the data enough, that we’ll get an early cut. Problem is, if he cuts now, we’ll be in a recession. You can expect a cut in sept by maybe 50bp.

    The Spider got it’s leg cut off with the housing bubble. It can still walk, but putting an “emergency” band-aid on it, is just added weight for it’s death. Man I should be a poet… It’ll be a first…. “financial poet, Demetrius Michael”


  80. I bet Lithium was thinking “Free Falling”


  81. Phil,

    I think the MOT Jan 2010 $10 calls are a bargain. What are your thoughts? What do you think about EMC? Should we still buy the COP Oct. 80 puts


  82. Tom Petty- I was thinking Free falling. LOL
    Mark- don’t drink too much as 5am comes early. Goodluck tomorrow! Miami is going down! LOL


  83. Thank You Fish


  84. phil-should I grab some puts here. or wait for a possible tiny upturn? what are the chances of seeing spx 1447 (200ema) today?


  85. Free Falling much better choice


  86. Let’s see if spy breaks through 146.


  87. Thanks Cap: I went short with QQQQ puts about two weeks ago, didn’t think I was smart enough to pick the fliers that were over extended like you did. It has been really hard waiting through this up leg (which I view as the B leg of and ABC wave correction) to stay with my trade, even adding to it at higher strikes because it was getting so far away on me. I finally did take Phils advice and rolled up on the strikes that were too far out and also bought calls to cover (which I sold Tue for a nice gain). Because I kept adding higher strikes the position got way bigger then it should have and is still under water.


  88. BBD – ha! no worries, training for the White Rock Half in December… waking up at 3 to run 7 miles anyways. Will save my liver tonight for the pounding it will receive tailgating tomorrow morning (and post-game more than likely).

    And damn skippy Miami’s going down!!!! hahaha! :) Have fun in Austin (if you’re still going) and Go Frogs!! ;)


  89. JE, Bill .. good ones (TP).

    I think Breakdown is more appropriate today than Free Falling, at least so far.


  90. Euh MOT… Steve how much are you going to make on that… 5 dollars in 3 years? Buy apple man, better growth in the cell phone market. Or Nokia, better cell phones.


  91. maybe I spoke too soon on that ..


  92. SPY breaking 146??? WOO


  93. Optrader, yeah, I kept thinking we would retest the 8/16 lows and go lower so I had QQQQs 45-47 to start with, rolled up to 47-49s and added Oct 48-49s. I am a Puts PUTZ!


  94. Peter,

    I worked on a derivatives trading system back in 1998-99 for a firm down on Broad Street, but since moving to Los Angeles in 2002, its been all content management systems and trading for me.

    Look at that took a 30 min run, and things don’t seem any better :)


  95. yeah texas/tcu is going to be a good one. not going to miss lsu/virginia tech either


  96. Crazy thing is my biggest long position, ALNY, is green too, almost at ATH


  97. Phil

    By the way. Kudos on being prescient again. You might actually be a better trader than Bolling :)


  98. Getting some QCOM puts

    Qualcomm-QCOM Motorola may be backing away from QCOM as vendor@CIBC
    CIBC interprets recent comments by Motorola as an indication the company may be backing away from using QCOM as a chipset vendor outside CDMA. The broker believes that if their interpretation is accurate, a potential growth catalyst for QCOM could be removed.


  99. REPOST:

    Phil et al, I bought QQQQ Oct 49 puts yesterday at 1.54. If you wanted to maintain limited downside protection, which would you sell, the Sept 49’s or the Oct 48’s?


  100. In IBM Oct 115′s @ 4.80 xyz


  101. XOM over the weekend. I’ll be holding at least 1/2.

    IBM – now is not the time to sell calls unless you are prepared to roll to next month with a loss. You are selling into the initial excitement, not a great thing if you think your stock is strong but, like I said, that’s because I’m heavily protecting with the DIA puts, now in the $131 puts at $2, hopefully I won’t have to pull the trigger on the $130s at $2! Stops on $134 puts at $3.20 but IMB just put out negative news re their sub-prime exposure so we may see 13,000 sooner than I thought!


  102. optrader- which qcom’s you grabbing?


  103. Trading halted on IMB??? hmmmm I be liken my Jan 25 P’s mas y mas


  104. COH- bought back sold calls twice today. Probably early this time.
    GOOG- hanging tough.
    TEXAS/TCU- No I am going to stick in Dallas, buddy from Austin having issues with the wife


  105. anyone have ideas of adding to aapl round 130? Got lucky and sold everything before the IPOD meeting and itching to get back in.


  106. Jkman-QCOM: got the Sep $40′s at $2.35.


  107. Fan-I would not buy any longs right now. You will have plenty of time later. If AAPL finds support at 4130 you will know it.


  108. Thanks.


  109. Just got out of the 49P’s qqqq so prob a good time for e1 else to buy…..did make nice pi of .64 per contract though


  110. QQQQ puts/DIA puts (Oct) – I’m tempted to sell Septs against them too, especially with the 130 puts fetching $1.75, at $20 I would sell half on a turn up (and whatever corresponds on the Qs)

    10-year rate fell off the table now at 4.69%, also takes the Fed off the table – people just don’t understand economics!

    VIX back at 26.44, still a tight rubber band.

    NYX had great numbers, be careful shorting them.

    Dollar below 80 from CNBC, my favorite channel!

    ROFL – Kudlow giving emergency spin “you know there is a silver lining to this jobs number…” ROFL!!!

    Attn Bears – we are holding up quite well considering this absolutely horrible news, we must, of course retake 13,200 or its bearish going into the weekend but holding that line on this crap is not a bad thing. Watch the S&P between 1,450 and 1,460 for the next likely move.

    SPX puts – once we make a move like this (2% plus) I am loath to make a new play. Remember, the last layer of a mattress play is virtually guaranteed to lose .25 and you’ll barely be above even on the layer above it. That’s why we look for 300-point drops to really cash in (doesn’t have to be in one day but needs to be without a big correction) as we get 4+ layers active before we stop out and the $134 puts are up to $3.50 now, that’s where all the profit is (and your top layer should be 2x the succeeding layers). One day we should all vow to do nothing but matterss plays in great detail as there are more complex ways to run them like reducing the successive layers by 25% (since you VERY rarely get more than a 300-point one day move).


  111. Congrats Karmcon. I hope I am not being greedy but I have not sold one put yet this morning. I don’t think it ever happened to me to not take at least some money out with a 200+ points drop, but it looks ugly out there. I am watching the 15 min charts very closely though and will lighten-up if I see a reversal.


  112. 48 is pretty strong support on Qs. Will be interesting to see what happens here.


  113. greg

    I have 1200 ALNY at cost basis of 9.58. I love that stock. Waiting on CYTR.


  114. GS predicting 1/2 point cut! No one is buying it yet (or maybe, like I said earlier in the week, it isn’t enough).

    I will not even dignify a comparison between me and Bolling with a response. 8-)

    LTP still at 202% – did I ever tell you how much I love that portfolio? And that’s with a dozen open calls I was still protecting with the STP (which is up stupid money now).

    IBM – taking another round of the Oct $115s at $5 XXX


  115. You guys rock by the way! No crying no whining, no freaking out – I love this group!!!


  116. Markets – how much of this is manipulated to get the attention of FED to cut…or am I asking the wrong question?


  117. Not freaking out – We learnt (and continue to learn) from the Master ! Thanks !


  118. “One day we should all vow to do nothing but mattress plays in great detail as there are more complex ways to run them like reducing the successive layers by 25%.” — Do you accept pre-vows?


  119. GOOG & BIDU not really going down???


  120. Phil et al –

    Dolllar/Yen is now 113.20… I can’t see BOJ letting it go below 112 just like it bounced last time (the trade will unwind eventually, just not immediately?)… what about either selling Sep 90 calls or buying some puts around here?


  121. on FXY that is…


  122. Have caught 112 points in my e-mini acct today

    Keep waiting for the hedge fund buy programs to kick in

    Would have been less stressful just shorting at the open and going to the park!


  123. This is the best investment club ever…. As soon as I have some cash!! I’m going to have so much fun.


  124. “Keep waiting for the hedge fund buy programs to kick in”


  125. new to PSW, just trying to keep my mouth shut and learn something but I bought CME 560 puts at 11.80 two days ago and it’s worked out beautifully, sold at 22.60! Thanks you Phil for all you insight!


  126. Falling dollar – Falling market – possible recession . How much can overseas investors take?


  127. ??? wow my comment was only half posted….

    “Keep waiting for the hedge fund buy programs to kick in”


  128. oh maybe it’s my “


  129. Phil,

    GS call for 1/2 point cut- I don’t think its enough, I think these things have to work their way out and if that means companies go under and we have a recession then thats what is going to happen. Although I made money in this last bull run the market never felt right and thats not healthy.


  130. can the mkt go any lower than 230 for DOW?


  131. kudlow has been annoying the crap out of me lately (and i dont even watch him). i’ve never seen someone obsess over something so much when he isnt getting what he wants


  132. Okay I found code that doesn’t allow me to post. Shift comma hides text from your post.


  133. Why would we freak out? I’m ecstatic. 3-4 of my short calls had been going against me. Now I can get out with a profit.


  134. Lib — you’re also a futures guy?

    Would love to email with you offline if you’re interested.

    I’m j.elfenbein@yahoo.com.


  135. LithRB: I like CYTR also, have a few calls but no LEAPS avail. You got in early, that must mean you understand the huge potential of RNAi.


  136. phil,
    i’ve not been doing well lately, and it’s been a really tough time
    but this is the best day my portfolio has seen in quite a while
    shows me how ridiculously bearish i’ve been, and still have a way to go, but green is my favorite color
    and a good birthday gift
    thanks for your ongoing wisdom in such confusing markets


  137. kudlow, I don’t like him because he’s pro-war, but he’s very smart.
    He does say some stupid things, but so does everyone else.

    I think it’s important to listen to him, cause he’s a bull at heart. It’s nice to have people at extremes, so you can properly gauge where you are. If you’re more bullish than kudlow, then there’s a problem with your portfolio and your logic.
    If you’re more bearish than say Doug Kass, then again, problem.

    You could read everyone inbetween, but you’ll have a clearer point of view if you only read the biggest bull, and the biggest bear.


  138. Rolling my AAPL ’10 $150s to ’10 $140s for $3.50 XXX

    Manipulation – I wrote that in today’s post – timing too coincidental for my taste so, when in doubt, I get paranoid…

    MS making a VERY intersting move.

    Don’t forget FXI calls are a great lagging way to play a Dow rebound (intraday only).
    FXI is bouncing off the 5% rule and the $146s were $9 3 trading hours ago so I’m grabbing some at $5.80 (dangerous trade!), with a DD at $5 (assuming it holds) and then a stop at $4.60.


  139. Greg

    If gene silencing makes it out of the lab. The world would benefit greatly.


  140. Phil,

    The numbers are very coincidential, I had the same feelings this morning


  141. BCSI – starting to move.


  142. Cool Cris2 and welcome!

    Weak turn signal here, DE getting attention so I like CAT Oct $75s, at $2.80 (day’s low) to recover at least .75 of the day’s loss on any move over 13,200. XXX but it’s a leap of faith on the next test of $73.75

    FNM moving up, that’s a Fed thing. OIH components making a comeback.


  143. Robert Reich is a putz. If they have a guy like him on, they ought to make sure that they note that all his comments are politically motivated. Another Clinton era failure.


  144. COP I flinched sold puts @ $2 – not a bad nights work. Thanks Phil. I’m sure you’ll double and I’ll be glad for you rather than sorry I chickened!


  145. I just bought some QQQQ 48 calls, with hard stop at $1.05.


  146. Fund buying – dangerous here. With my fund hat on I’ll buy right here BUT I will cut and run and sell some more if we can’t break 13,200 or if we pop below it at the close. Cash is tight and no one is going to lend me money so I can work through my losses…

    Don’t forget to let your stops lead you to cash, if we break back over 13,200 it’s time to cash out the puts and put tight stops on the calls but don’t let your put wins turn into losses, half out here isn’t a bad idea if you don’t want to lose 20% XXX


  147. Bargain hunters starting to nibble on china hot stocks?


  148. CAT- sounds like you are talking about calls but the puts match the price? someone correct my stupidity here on not being able to figure it out


  149. Sold CFC Oct $15 at $1.05 buying aapl $135 calls


  150. Apple considers cutting prices of TV show downloads-Variety.com
    According to people familiar with the matter, Apple (AAPL) is considering cutting the prices of television show downloads on its iTunes service in half, from $1.99 to 99 cents, a plan that is “not going over too well in Hollywood.” The plan may be the reason that GE’s (GE) NBC decided not to renew its current deal with Apple. Reference Link


  151. Well, I had to sell some of my Berkshire Bs for cash but I am out of all my shorts that had been going against me. You are right Phil, you have instilled a sense of calm in all of us. Before I started reading your blog I would have been jumping out of a window but I know I just ‘wait and see’ and ‘sell half’. Thanks


  152. I don’t like buying anything on the weekend, hoping for a M&A bounce on monday…. Who’s stupid enough to buy out companies in this market?

    Phil what stops would have on the CAT play, or most of your plays? Are they usually like a constant number like 25cents? Or intra-day technical based? Or daily technical based?


  153. BSC — anyone notice the comeback off its lows today ?


  154. I’m glad Windy. While I encourage people to disagree with me on stocks as any stock can do anything at anytime. I really would urge giving some credence to my macro calls. Sometimes I’m a quarter or two ahead (because I see stuff coming and I can’t believe no one else does) but I’m rarely totally wrong…

    Good point D – just like hedging, you should spend at least 30% of your time reading people who totally disagree with you.

    Wheee, here we go – clack, clack, clack, clack…



  155. Phil – can you extrapolate a bit on your AAPL move: “Rolling my AAPL ‘10 $150s to ‘10 $140s for $3.50 XXX

    ?” I assume you are doing this (1) at a slight loss and (2) because you think AAPL is now basing in the low 130s so you want to move your strike down a bit.


  156. “Who’s stupid enough to buy out companies in this market?” ….. Maybe Ebay buying out Yahoo. But i don’t see it now.


  157. GS, MER holding up decently.


  158. yes phil, i’ve been wanting to get into more of a macro perspective
    looking forward to when you initiate the new portfolio’s!


  159. BTW, at 399 even I might have to get an I-phone.

    What do you think of that Emman ? How bullish for AAPL is that ? LOL.


  160. Well am off to play Barrister, one thing I have learned (mostly the hard way it seems) is that sometimes Less is More….GL e1 and have a gr8 weekend! :cool:


  161. question:
    do option values deteriorate over weekend days too?
    thanks


  162. Hah you discovered my nick name.


  163. Bot some SBUX stock for 27.07 for Mom’s IRA.


  164. MEDX -

    5% rule testing? It’s down pretty hard for the week at this point. Perhaps time to try and pick up some Jan 22.50 @ 0.50 or so?


  165. your article today was very good Phil and yes I love your Macro calls and so do the new readers and clients from NWTF, they were talking about the roach theory the other day like I haven’t heard about it! :)

    I love listening to your new theories and hypotheses and then I usually TRY to build arguments against them to weigh out the outcome probabilites or link other dominos to your set based on different weightings.
    Your like a personalized Greenspan that can condense things down with a more entertaining message.


  166. Cap, what??? You would buy an Iphone? ohoh, I don’t know what to think about this…LOL


  167. Cap – you need to buy a Jura Z5 espresso maker for mom’s kitchen ;-)


  168. I think back in “sell the rallies” mode.


  169. Cap, why not some LULU? People who can afford Starbucks, probably can buy Lulu lemon stuff… It’s like crox, but sexy. Plus in this ridiculous market, it’s a performer.


  170. Sparkle cashing in my puts, buying calls here is a good spot!


  171. Bought some MEDX nov 20 calls.


  172. Hack allows iPhone users to load free ringtones-
    Apparently, according to Engadget, there is already a simple hack that allows Apple (AAPL) iPhone users to take their own music and turn it into ringtones for free, instead of paying for them on iTunes.


  173. Optrader… Exactly ! How more bullish can you get that that ?!

    Greg … I know nothing about espresso. I don’t even drink coffee. But my dad and my wife live on Starbucks coffee, and I have traded that stock very successfully.

    Demetrius … LULU … there is a Lululemon down the block. Walked buy it a lot, never been in it. Not my wife’s taste. Don’t follow the stock but I’ll look. If its sexy, I’ll have to send my wife or one of Phil’s girlfriends there … (just kidding Tina).

    Bidu breaking down; with the run its had, probably a good time to start wiping out all of the callers over the next 2 weeks.


  174. AAPL saga

    Walked away from oct 140 this am. Plowed money into DIA 133 puts. Working out well. Nibbling on leaps.


  175. Phil, do you endorse hedging in different stocks.

    Like::
    Put XOM, Call XTO.
    Put Palm, Call Rimm
    Put NKE, Call UA

    etc etc


  176. Phil,
    I have DIA Oct132 calls – should I roll / sell these?
    Thanks for your advice.


  177. Cap, not sure I should be bullish…It’s like having it on the cover of Times. Anyway, I have been bearish AAPL since the day before the event, and not ready to change my mind.


  178. BG looks like it has a long way to go down still on it’s daily.


  179. GS almost at 180 bucks.


  180. Optrader, always if It’s about software, a Hack will exist…


  181. bits of green i see:
    swhc – amazing!
    fmt, nyx, ioc, imb, ua, rig, even gs


  182. Maybe short stop @ $92.50 on BG.


  183. COP – yeah, nothing to make me change my plan, if the dollar goes up oil will get trashed. OPEC meeting on 9/11 is keeping that market afloat as we should get some fun comments for Phil Flynn to make hay out of if nothing else.

    CAT calls – yes!

    AAPL is right – .99 is a price I would actually pay for a show. Probably more so than a song even though the song I will keep forever and listen to 100 times and the show I will delete for space after one viewing. Both broadcasters and the public have a very screwed up valuation model for intellectual property.

    Excellent Daveo.

    Stops – depends depends unfortunately. Rule of thumb is any close play (Jan is now close) I will have little tolerance for a 20% loss so it’s either DD there or go home. Once I am more than 20% committed to a position, very strict 20% stop loss. Happy to cash out of positions now and make up for imbalances with the DIA puts and calls.

    Weak, weak bounce, no conviction from buyers (including me).

    I wish someone would have reminded me FWLT was at $120 yesterday…

    GM broke $30, thats a strong sign (and not a good one). If they can’t break back over $30 I wouldn’t trust a rally as it means no one is spreading Dow indexes.

    AAPL – slight loss is a matter of opinion. I am thrilled to be getting the $140s for $36.36 avg. over the past 2 days since I have 28 opportunities to sell calls that have $4 premiums.

    Minor pullback in the miners – early indication that something is up – BEWARE THE FED!

    Have fun Karm!

    Weekends – in theory values don’t deteriorate but in fact they do. It’s a good topic for Sage to address some time.

    Nicknames – LOL, I’m like Bush, I have to give everyone a shorter name but, unlike Bush, I try not to make the nicknames more confusing than remembering the original name… Other than that, we have a lot in common (again, the pressing need for the “sarcasm” font).

    Thanks Dragon – and this is so much better than my old system of pontificating on street corners! 8-)

    AAPL – wait until you people realize Jobs is a godless communist who actually wants to create a national Wi-Max network that allows users to talk for free forever and that he’s going to keep sticking it to the music companies until he can buy one and rework the whole artist distribution model to give money directly to the bands and cut out the middlemen…. (oops, I wasn’t supposed to say that out loud – forget you heard that here).


  184. RIG going positive. I guess people are still going to drill for oil. :-)


  185. GS now green.
    BSC close.
    MER close.

    What do it mean Phil ?


  186. fmt just exploded


  187. Is this a weak rally to 146.5 on SPY?…. Why are people buying? Technical / Rumor / Fundamental?


  188. MEDX bounced nicely off the 50 dma.


  189. nm about the last question.


  190. I need to get a refresh program


  191. Phil please interpret “pullback in miners beware the fed” for me. I’m too ill-informed to draw all the connections and conclusions.


  192. cap – your wife could make her own starbucks latte/cappucinos with a super auto espresso maker in her kitchen and save all the $$$ spent at starbucks. Beating Starbucks out of their $$$ for overpriced cup of joe is almost as good as beating the IRS.


  193. Motorola promises a wave of new products next month
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-070907-motorola,0,7215855.story


  194. Hedging different stock directions – not my favorite play as I prefer to make money on both ends by say, shorting the weakest oil and longing the strongest gas or coal play (I have the CHK calls). It’s just that I tend to take a lot of positions and if I started doing that then I’d have so many I wouldn’t even know what to root for. I have, however, been talking to Tom2oc about some strategy plays like that and we may try some soon in an experiment we’re thinking of running (for my fund).

    DIA $132 puts – well I’m half out of all those with just the $132s and $131s left (Septembers, Octobers using normal stop rules). Will bulk back up later when I get a clear signal, still targeting $131s at $1.92 as my next main position if we leg down. Oops, just realized you asked about calls! No, I wouldn’t sell at LOD, I’d roll to $131s or possibly DD real quick and hope it breaks 13,200 but get the hell out if it doesn’t

    FNF/FAF/LFG coming back? Something is up… FMD, FNM, Brokers, NMX… Beware the Fed… Still weak but it’s the way I’d be buying if I were scooping up some potential big movers ahead of an announcement. They could halt the market if Bernanke comes in but I would sell into that rally (probably back at 13,400) if it happens.

    Rolling down to tighter covers on DIAs, $132s now at $2.23


  195. Just got back from class, today is becoming an interesting day. Phil just a quick question, if we were slowly taking profits on certain shorter-term puts in the past couple of days after around 20% profit, and now we find that we are overexposed to the upside, would buying puts at this point be too late? thanks.


  196. end of the bounce?


  197. oh and just another point. Just subscribed a while back so I’m trying to a get a gist of the mattress plays. However, I havent actually started implementing any mattress plays. Would it be a bad time to begin starting the mattress play?


  198. No reason not to pick up GOOG Dec $540s at $23.80, can always sell against them… XXX


  199. Possible pin on SPY, might be a top for this run.

    Cramer says fed is biased in tightening. I think he’s right….. I wouldnt’ think they’re quick to cut. I don’t think he’ll raise rates, but no early cut, unless if we start breaking our last month lows.
    http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10378444&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&puc=&ts=1189180187536&bt=NS&bp=MAC&bst=FF&biec=false&format=flash&bitrate=300

    Cramer is very hit or miss, but he’s pretty good in gaging people. I think he’s on the money with bernanke.


  200. Phil, are you out of the CAL Oct 30 puts? If not, what stops have you set?


  201. OIL- goes green, weekend pump
    Phil- I never argue with your MARCO CALLS, just stocks. LOL.
    CNBC- now thinks HEllpaso is near Dallas. Keep getting local basball ads.


  202. Speaking of SBUX- Phil, you said the other day you liked them down around $27. Are the Jan09 25s a reasonable LTP play at 5.80?


  203. Talk about a typo, read the price they quote for MOT at the bottom…

    Motorola CFO Says Company To Give 4Q Views In 3Q Report >MOTLast update: 9/7/2007 12:32:55 PM

    By Roger Cheng
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Motorola Inc. (MOT) will give its estimate for fourth-quarter earnings when it reports its third-quarter results, according to Chief Financial Officer Tom Meredith. Motorola will also give more details about its financial expectations in the fourth quarter, Meredith said during the company’s analyst day meeting. The Schaumburg, Ill., company has been hit by a series of disappointing quarters as the pricing power of its cellphones deteriorates and it struggles to find a worthy successor to its successful ultra-slim Razr. Shares of Motorola recently were off $1.92, or 1.6%, at $115.70. – By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2020; roger.cheng@dowjones.com

    LOL they corrected it already with a re release of the story

    Starbucks To Enter First Markets In Eastern Europe Soon

    My money is worthless and im pissed! Governments around the world hold $5.5 trillion dollars in reserves… im hopping they dump, if these foreign countries cant reinvest in US assets look for rates to up not down.


  204. Phil, I have some (past my 30 day window) AAPL ’10 leaps.. 2x 140, 1×150, 2×200. I’d like to consolidate at some point in time to a single position.. I’d take a little off the table too, and am looking at either 5×140’09, or 4×140’10.. Given VIX @ 26, I’m leaning towards the ’09.. Thoughts on timing of the roll/consolidation, and end location? Thanks -Peter


  205. Phil,

    CCJ is my long term nightmare, I mean learning opportunity. I’m holding the Jan 08 55′s at 4.55, now .80. (2 contracts thank goodness!). I also have the Jan 09 50 leap, I bought for 7.65, now 5.9. (2 contracts). Finally, I sold 2 Sept 40′s at $1.1, now 1.85. I know, pretty much stinks, but it is what it is.
    So, what to do?
    Should I roll my Jan 08 55′s to Oct 45′s for just about even, or double down the 55′s? Ideas?
    This is for learning purposes only, so I don’t mind losing money if I learn….


  206. DJIND
    The world’s leading economies are set for some moderation of economic growth, led by slowdowns in Japan and the euro zone, according to figures released by the OECD today. The sentiment was echoed by the IMF.

    OPEC isn’t likely to officially sanction higher oil production next week, but the group’s individual members may continue to leak out extra crude to customers if they ask for it. Lag time between meetings suggests members feel no major urgency.


  207. Gah consolidation. (I wonder if you have html editing turned on in your comments.)
    Give or take 5 points.

    DJI 13200 – 13125
    SPX 1460 – 1450
    COMP 4350 – 4320


  208. Optiondragon,

    People seem really intent on holding onto their MEDX calls. The spread just gets bigger but the ask never drops much. I’m going to add Jan calls here to expand the time horizon since I’ve already got the Novs.


  209. Markets heading higher


  210. CFC- loading up on sep 17.50 puts


  211. Hmmm let’s have fun.

    IMG SRC=http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/spy2.png


  212. Dammit, no luck


  213. WOW HOG got slaughtered today, keeping an eye on this one


  214. SBUX have 1x sept 27.5′s sold against 2x Jan 30′s – leave covered or buy back on this drop?


  215. Kustomz,

    I remember about 6-8 months ago when I unsuccessfully tried to short the mortgage brokers thinking that Harley-Davidson was going to get beaten down by the same credit melt-down. I met several people that had used their home-equity loans to buy motorcycles or that amazed me that they could afford those things – they aren’t cheap!

    Anyhow, I’ve since read several articles and comments that back up the thought and I’ve seen nothing to indicate that a lot of people with $15-20k in discretionary funds lying around are going to drop it on a Harley.


  216. I’m starting to buy jan ’10 puts on the TLT. Not a good income producer as the near term premiums are small, but does anyone think that we can have sub 5% intrest rates for long with the dollar falling off a cliff? Anyone out there play intrest rate options?


  217. MrN- I sold SBUX 27.5s as well, and tried to buy them back a bit ago. As always, I seem to have entered at the bottom, so that move up from 27.05? That was my fault. Sorry. :-)


  218. Harley riders would let their house foreclose before they would give up their bikes ;-)


  219. Phil, what do you think about a calendar spread on GOOG, buying Jan-08 540′s and selling (you) the Dec 540′s. The spread widens as the front month gets closer. Granted, it is a long time to hold for a potential 100% gain. Maybe I answered my own question.


  220. Greg,

    I’m not sure if that’s a sadder commentary on the mortgage industry or motorcycle rider’s priorities! You might be able to live in a car… but a motorcyle?


  221. Greg,
    dont own a Harley, but a Yamaha but agree with u…. :-)


  222. Google Gpay patent likely to fail-TheInquirer.net
    According to the Inquirer, Google’s (GOOG) Gpay patent application is not likely to succeed. Anil Malhotra, marketing VP with mobile payment fulfilment house, Bango, said, “I can’t see what more can be patented for payment by text.”


  223. Richard,

    I am playing the TLTs. I see this as kind of like Phil’s oil puts. You know that the the interest rates will turn at some point – and go back up as quickly as they dropped, but you don’t know when, so you have to leg in small and be prepared to roll and double down. Given how small the premiums are on puts, the payoff should be large. BTW – TLT is currently overbought, but could go as high as 91.35 on this leg, if things stay ugly…


  224. What’s with everyone’s fascination with starbucks?

    What can they possibly do to make themselves cooler? Add more flavors? Sign more contracts with Jones? All I see them do is maybe cost cut (DELL’s model), higher hotter women (ANF’s model), and discriminate against male workers (T’s model).

    If I need coffee, and I’m poor, it’s not going to be from starbucks.

    I go to starbucks to lounge around, but I’m starting to do less of that because starbucks is always full…. They could increase their real estate space, to increase growth (twice many seats = twice many customers??) but with the bubble popping, I don’t see them expanding anytime soon.


  225. Mr_Sparkle, i understand the logic but try applying it to the markets. A futile act.


  226. Miner pullback – Dollar is down now on uncertainty more so than a 1/2 point cut will disappoint but support the $.

    Welcome John Oh!

    Mattress plays essentially start as squeeze plays and we weight them whichever way we think the market is going (along with factoring in how much protection we need) so the best way to enter is to buy the OTHER way on a big dip or spike and then start working into a squeeze on the bounce. Then we roll to tighten with the goal of squeezing the Dow with at least 30 days left where a 300-point move will do well for us. See, simple!

    Yep I got stopped out yesterday. I almost held them with oil still up high but it was such a sharp bounce I gave up. When in doubt – sell half! CAL puts make great pair trades with Oil puts as oil going up is bad for airlines.

    REJECTED at 13,200! So we tighten… XXX

    SBUX – why pay double unless the margin is a problem. The ’09 $30s at $3.10 let you sell $27.50s when they get to .50 and you are six sales away from a free ride.

    AAPL – I’m consolidating to $140s right now but anytime you can pay $3.50-$4 to gain $10 in position on a stock that you can get $4 in premium per month means you are on your way to $0 calls by 2010! Since the 2010s are only $10 more for 12 more months of sales, as long as you think Apple won’t go back to $60, these are your best long-term plays. The stock is annoyingly volatile, even the ’10s go up and down $4 per day, but as long as you consistantly sell calls, you are locking down some prime real estate for the long haul.


  227. sparkle & coolkid – can you think of any other brand so strong that their customers will get it tatoo’d on their body?


  228. flimflam – that’d only work if google stayed relatively flat between now and mid dec.. check out the sep/oct spreads for 440 and 640 for example.. spreads are 3 and -0.5 respectively.. and your cost would be about 4 now..

    with the right stops, and keeping an eye on it, it could work though.. -Peter


  229. Greg,

    cross…


  230. You’ll have better luck sleeping in your Harley than a Yamaha R1.


  231. AINV – is this an interesting company?


  232. Greg,

    I hope you right about Harley riders because I’m short CFC and HOG isn’t looking too good.


  233. Demetrius

    thundercat… r1 dont want to fly to the moon young..


  234. Greg,

    Good point well taken. The only brand that even approaches that level in my mind is Apple.

    I was in the Black Hills (South Dakota) a few weeks ago, right after the Sturgis rally and all the locals said attendance was waaaaaay down this year (like 30% off). They thought this was due to hotels gouging everyone more than usual though. Still, they’ve been doing that for years so I wonder if there were other contributing factors.

    Kustomz,

    Phil (and others here) have helped correct me of my engineer’s belief that you can apply logic to anything. It’s just not true!


  235. BG rejected 92.50.
    Looks like it trading with the market today. Just looks over valued on the daily technical.
    Would maintain a short stop at 92.50. Not much risk if you got in at 92.40.

    Intra
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/bg.png
    Daily
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/bg-d.png


  236. Phil and all,

    I’d like to set up a temporary wiki on PBwiki.com for the members site. I’m pretty sure that the information would be limited to the members and it could go out on an invite only basis. This would be a useful tool for newcomers and for refreshing ideas for the members.

    Anybody have any thoughts?


  237. Cool – Bah 600 CC… Might as well get a gixxer 600R, it’s a better balanced bike.


  238. CCJ/other specific calls – I’ll be happy to do these over the weekend but in the interest of helping the most people I’m going to concentrate on the broader calls today. Remember any adjustments you do right now are panic adjustments because if we hold 13,200, we’ve had a successful week (from where we started last Friday). That all being said, I still like CCJ but wouldn’t buy more here.

    HOG – always a great discretionary income indicator.

    SBUX – I like them down here but they don’t generate enough option sales revenues.

    5% rates – we could have a recession/depression and then you will get 3% loans – IF YOU QUALIFY, which you won’t… The reason money gets cheap in a recession is not because nobody wants it but because no one who has it has anything “safe” to invest in so it just lays around not working, and stagnates the economy. If inflation kicks in, then the rates compensate for that but we may go into a Japanese model deflation cycle where everything you own is just worth less and less and less for a decade or so.

    GOOG – too scary for a 1-month spread.

    As we get to 2pm with no Fed announcement, look for buyers to rethink all that crap they just threw money at!


  239. I hope everyone here shorted that bounce :)


  240. Mr Sparkle – don’t know why Sturgis attendance was down, but doubt it has to do with the economy so much. The demographics of the average HOG owner has become very affluent!


  241. Demetrius,

    dont like it.. so far no probs or accid on my thuder considering riding in NYC>>>


  242. i meant i ride in NYC… crazy roads and people


  243. I didn’t short the bounce but bought QQQQ calls which just stopped out – yeah I finally used a hard stop and it worked perfectly – sweet.


  244. Phil- As we get to 2pm with no Fed announcement, look for buyers to rethink all that crap they just threw money at!

    so you think we’ll get an ugly close?

    I currently have no open positions. I only have the funds so far to open one to two positions at a time. would this be a good time to enter DIA puts as a play and not as protection?


  245. I used the bounce to reposition from DIA 133 puts to 131′s.


  246. wiki sounds sexy. Do it!


  247. mr-sparkle -
    funny you should mention sturgis – my daughter just graduated college and relocated to calif. from here (nj) —
    on her cross-country road trip she came upon the sturgis rally in the black hills… and was one of the ones that got gouged by the hotels – whe wasn’t pleased!

    but…she did ask me if i owned harley stock! ha !


  248. I built a custom Harley back in 2001 (hence the Kustomz), in the process of selling, taking that money and buying a HD Road King. I ride with a large group and most of the bikes are fairly new. 100% of them are serviced at a Harley dealership using Harley products. Is HD over priced in this atmosphere, of course but like i said its one to watch.

    The issue of money and people using their homes equity, i spent 3 months traveling in 04, France, Germany, Serbia, Romania, Greece (Crete), Israel. Spent 20k, can i afford to do that now, yes. Will I? Absolutely not. I would much rather spend my money here where it still has some value, will i stop having fun and enjoying life because subprime is affecting people that bought 300k homes with no money down, HELL NO!

    Most of the people i associate with feel the same way. We who trade the markets are up to our ears in all the bad news, sometimes it can make you too negative. I like good stocks that have great growth stories that get re priced, theres always China!!


  249. SBUX-What’s with everyone’s fascination with starbucks? I don’t go there it is always full! Sounds like something Yogi Berra might say. PS. I don’t have this one


  250. Greg, well done. In my opinion, stops are just the ONE thing you need to master in order to make money in the stock market.
    Especially with Qs, it’s pretty easy to get in and out on $0.01, so there is absolutely no reason to keep a position that is going against you. I just got in and out of Qs 5 times since the bounce started. These 100 points moves are just amazing.


  251. Optrader ? Really …. just based on price ? or something else ?

    As for the cover of Time reference, yes you may be right; however, keep in mind that I haven’t actually bought any of their stuff as yet !


  252. Damn I got out of those CME puts too early!

    Wiki – that would be fine Steve, as long as it’s secure but I do know Jared was setting up some server space so please do check with him first.

    GSF, SLB immune to the market? GS pretending they are too…

    Think there is an ulteriour motive to CNBC showing Barack Obama’s “Mansion” from a helicopter shot???

    Enering a new DIA play – if you are looking for long-term protection the best way to get started is to spread the Oct $129 puts, now $3.03 against the Oct $134 calls, now $2.90 in a ratio that is opposite your portfolio balance up to 2:1 one way or the other. Your goal is to work your way down to a $2.40 strangle in 2 weeks so anytime you can buy a few more on either side for less than $2.40, then that will make good progress.

    Not a buyer for miles!


  253. NYC riding. you need to come to Canada and let that thing rip on the countryside. Yamaha’s are always good, I’m glad you have fun with it.

    I’m a car person, I would rather a Mitsubishi Evolution over a Ferrari too. Real drivers rally, none of this driving in a circle business.
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=1xYAWEalTS0 (Top Gear – Bobsled vs Evo)


  254. Damn Phil, market dropped 20 points on cue at 11. Are you sitting in front of a crystal ball???


  255. 11 my time 2pm yours.


  256. Phil, I hope Jared is using Apple hardware for those servers.


  257. EVO hot… new model coming up


  258. Cap, really what? In and out of Qs? Yes, just price and 15 min chart. My main position is the 48′s, but today I have been daytrading the 47′s. Sometimes for only $0.03-$0.04. 300 contracts each time though.


  259. SBUX – Yogi would say “Nobody goes there because it’s always full.” When I’m old and famous I will make an effort to say things like that all the time!

    No announcement and the markets are heading south again, wait ’till the 18th when nothing happens….

    GS short better than an index put right now. GS $175 puts were $6.25 this morning, now $4.75 XXX


  260. Phil: did CNBC also show the empty lot next door to Barack’s “Mansion” that a lobbyist pal of Barack’s bought (at the same time Barack bought his Mansion and for almost as much $$ as Barack’s Mansion, from the same seller). Nothing fishy about that, is there?


  261. GS play is brilliant. At least it should be. You amaze me.


  262. oh yah I’m buying the Evo X if I could ever manage to get some cash and profits out of this market. It’s kinda funny being young…. Food money, loans, everything I have is in the market.

    SPY Channel again.
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/spy3.png


  263. SBUX – LOL. I’m talking about growth yogi.

    Get famous though, that’ll be hilarious… Then we can have a hedgefund that only makes money by selling Phil’s signatures and junk items over the internet… Plan is flawless.


  264. Demetrius..
    supra is coming back so is rx7 …


  265. Hey cap – not to kick a dead horse on Starbucks, but don’t all the people who go there look like loonie liberals to you? They do in my neighborhood, one more reason I can’t stand the place! ;-)


  266. On Sept. 6, Carlyle, which has more than $75 billion under management, said it had raised $7 billion to create a third European buyout fund. Carlyle Europe Partners III will invest in growth companies in aerospace, automotive and transportation, chemicals, energy and power, and health care, as well other sectors.
    http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2007/09/03/daily34.html

    Laughable, a measly 7B to spend in Europe, if Russia hasn’t bought it yet then its not worth the money.


  267. Yogi – With all the ‘wise’ points you earned I placed you around 1000 odd years, Phil :-)


  268. Added more IBM Oct $115s at $5 as Happy and I really like them and I can always sell the current $115s, now $2.72

    Buying reminds me of when people try to get a wave going in a half empty stadium when a sucky team is losing. A bunch of guys jump up then 1/3 that many in the next section then another third and by the time it’s 1/4 way around the stadium some guy jumps up by himself and feels like an idiot…


  269. PHIL- The quote was close enough for me. LOL
    VMW-acting very tough


  270. Bidon’t!


  271. Enering a new DIA play -

    Phil, how did you come up with the $2.40 number on this strangle?

    Brian


  272. Phil, what’s your thinking behind GS Sep 175 puts? Why not Oct 170 or 165?


  273. Phil,

    just trying to learn more about strategy..I asked this am about selling calls against those IBM Oct 115 from yesterday and your recommendation was not to do it..was that just not “selling into the initial excitement” or when would you jump on those Sep 115? if IBM falls through a certain level?

    thanks much for the lesson

    Zinger


  274. Phil, I agree you can get sub 5% rates with a flight to “quality”, but only if there are actual dollars seeking a home. We are net borrowers, day in and day out to the tune of over 2B/ day — uncle sam has no choice but to pay whatever our foreign friends ask. With a cratering doller, what will they demand? 5% for a twenty year note? Not for long…..


  275. AAPL 130 support held, is it time to cash in the insurance on the JAN 140 puts? up ~50% or better to hold them over the weekend?


  276. Motorcycles- I glad to see we have some riders here. Personally I love Ducati and when I was at the dealer buying a new Monster last month the salesman told me it’s been really slow. The dealership sells Ducati and BMW and are propably suffering the same issue as Harley.


  277. I think RIMM growth will slow with large financial sector layoffs, including investment banks and hedge funds.


  278. Cool – Do you know how long I’ve been waiting for that news… Skyline and the Evo are probably going to be the ones that are revolutionary… It seems like all the manufacturers are late on the ball… Like always….

    Why do old people learn so slow? I mean, nerds are the ones that think they control the future. But in reality it’s the younger hot shots that give the world direction…. Gates is a nerd, Jobs is a hot shot. Who do we like more? Nerdy funds think MSFT is a growth stock.

    They should’ve been all about the boy-toy cars as soon as they noticed that everyone had neon lights underneath their cars. Which was like a decade ago?! Fashion trends lasting that longer than that are rare. I feel the car scene is going back underground – therefore, unprofitable for the toys that don’t beat every single class.

    Take the Lotus for example, it’s a performer, but it’s just unpractical. The evo is like a sedan on drugs. 4 doors, and a trunk that pleases even the most concerning of the mafias. Has all of this, and still circles Ferraris on a dry track…. Never-mind on dirt, gravel, or snow.


  279. Unbelievable, my daughter just said “no” to Cramer, when he asked her if she would like to ask question during the lightning round tonight at USC. She’ll be sitting 3rd row with green top. So if you see a gorgeous girl…that’s my baby.

    j


  280. or maybe roll AAPL insurance to Jan 135s puts or 130s and pocket the difference?


  281. CRM looking strong on a bloody day


  282. bigs – also love rider discussion. Not a harley guy yet. I have a Yamaha Vstar. However, my buddy bought a Ducati 1098 when we returned from Iraq. I rode it home from dealership. That is one heck of a fun bike! I know I suprised a few soccer mom’s as I ripped past them! I can attest that it’s slow though. The harley dealers have new 06′s still on the floor.


  283. AAPL-Amazing how they are fighting for this $131 line.


  284. Booyah to your daughter Juliet.


  285. AAPL – yes, the day isnt over yet…


  286. Andrew
    I think RIMM growth will slow with large financial sector layoffs, including investment banks and hedge funds

    The large layoffs haven’t surfaced, yet.

    juliet, im going to record the show now. You sound like a very proud mommy, im a big fan of gorgeous girls. ;)


  287. OIH I continue to love selling those $185 calls. Now into month 2 of this working every time!

    DNA not going down (worth noting).

    $2.40 – that’s about the most I will pay to layer my calls or puts once we get within a month (now, 2 weeks out, it’s $2). Very important to note that the Sept index puts and calls are for day trading purposes, it’s the 45-day+ calls that I want to work into for commitments on a big move.

    GS – it’s pretty much just a mo pay. While the DIA stayed around $131.75 GS jumped up $5 making those puts attractive by comparison since they are both hoping for the same news.

    IBM – as I’m a strong believer in them, it’s hard for me to short but now that I have 20, I would consider selling 10 sept $115s for cover into the weekend but unless you have a specifc strategy, you don’t generally just cover a Oct with a Sept on the same level (as you wipe out any chance of a gain). If you have so little faith in a posiiton, then shouldn’t you be cashing it out?

    AAPL puts – yes, + 50% put money in our pockets that we apply to the basis which takes us out of danger from this dip so mission accomplished there.

    BMY getting killed, GS cut them to sell on Tues but nothing new that I see. Interesting chance to get into the Jan ’10 $30s at $2.80 or less here. I was in for $2.90 and sold the $30s for .65 so I’m up nicely at the moment. GS cut due to 2012 patent expirations, little chance of a buyer and set a $30 12-month target – this is all perfect for an LTP play but at this point I’d let them sell off a bit. I’m rolling my caller to the $27.50s to pick up an extra .30 in premium. XXX


  288. juliet- i’ll be watching for her. although that does mean i’ll have to watch cramer. times like this the mute button is my best friend


  289. Optrader – AAPL tell us if you know how this fight will end please?


  290. Here goes $131, should trigger another leg down in the market.


  291. I’m her biggest fan, she is not only gorgeous but very smart girl.
    j


  292. DNA def, strong buy volume on the 6th and 7th. Duly noted


  293. Ducati’s are unreal…. I don’t like harleys because they purposely bend the crankshaft to have that noise… They worse the bike, so it sounds louder…

    HOG was a good indicator for lux items, but I think the consumers are fading out of them and won’t return in the next boom cycle. We’re in an economy that’s driven by efficiency and carbon fiber -Two things a harley cannot have. For LUX, I think diamond dealers (like Tiffany or Nile) would be a better, more consistent indicator of spending. As diamond lasts for ever.

    Though I would have to do some work on it before I can attest to the whole diamond statement being true. Just a thought right now.


  294. 5% – yes RM, that’s the other side of the coin for sure. I was merely laying out the fact that between here and 2010 it’s not a 100% can’t lose strategy. I know logic dictates you’re right but logic also dictates RIMM shouldn’t be trading at 63 times earnings yet here we all are…

    Juliet – you should have had her ask why he never credits sage and I in his eductional segments!


  295. there goes XOM down


  296. Phil,
    As a new member, I have noticed that you have mentioned your “Fund” several times. Do you run a hedge fund or starting a fund? If the fund is open, are you accepting new investors?

    I’m sorry if e-one knows the answer but me, but I couldn’t find anything in previous posts.


  297. Juliet, that’s awesome about your daughter. I’ll be her #2 fan.
    Smart, gorgeous girls are always a plus.


  298. Demetrius,

    I also love all things that are fast and I’ve been eyeing one of these. Check it out….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaWoo82zNUA


  299. Q’s getting close to $48 again. Let’s see if it holds this time.


  300. selling pressure picking up now.


  301. ATOM YES. I absolutely love this car. It’s like a go-kart for adults.
    Did you see the Telsa? Finally a fast electric car. Lots of neat stuff in the car industry.


  302. Yea the Telsa is built on the Lotus Elise (which is another one of my favorites) platform.


  303. kustomz- that’s why it is a trading opportunity. If the layoffs were in the past, it would be priced in.


  304. Greg, I have no idea where it will end. I doubt anyone knows…I am just following price, that’s all, not trying to predict anything. Right now it is going down, but I am watching carefully. Qs bounced on 48 again. I am surprised that they did not even try to get the stops before the bounce, so I am very doubtful of it.


  305. yeah cap But Stocks seems to resist


  306. Bigsmokey, I wouldn’t mind having this either: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BO8jztWPPo

    SPY with a high volume reversal… I doubt it’ll last long


  307. AAPL insurance cashed out THANKS PHIL!!


  308. Hedge fund – yes, starts in spring. Contact me through admin for that.

    I see lots of support here in various inidices and I see the possibility for a manor chart reversal but I’ll let Happy make that call over the weekend. I’ve made enough money on the bear side that I’m inclined to go 60/40 bull on the calls into the weekend, probably anchored with 300 DIA $132s, now $1.90. XXX


  309. Evo, Elise. . . they dont come close to this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhEVlP87aH8


  310. CME puts – I also sold them way to early, but still made a profit so I’m not complaining. The CME play reminds me how limited the Scottrade functionality is. I would have held on to CME longer if there were some sort of automatic upward rolling STOP I could do within Scottrade.

    And I bought a few October IBM $115′s and that to reminds me how much I hate Scottrade as I can’t sell the September $115′s against the October in that account.


  311. Optrader, what is significance of bounce off 48 without trying to take out stops? It makes you doubtful of bounce or of downside conviction?


  312. I love how automatic windows are an OPTIONAL EXTRA on a 50k lotus. I haven’t seen that kind of weight savings since Porsche decided to replace their metal badging with a painted ones on the GT3 RS….


  313. I raise your Mercedes… with another Mercedes.

    Brabus. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4BvNUFSvEc

    Checkmate.


  314. Andrew, i think if your counting on layoffs to short RIMM your missing the fact that the stock is overpriced without them. Didn’t miss the principle of your statement.


  315. Nadir,

    All the AMG cars are great, I had a 2001 E55 AMG, but we are talking about pure sports cars

    P.S. I prefer the Exige to the Elise


  316. you guys and your fancy cars. i’d take a hovercraft over all them anyday


  317. Greg, makes me doubtful of bounce. That being said, I sold 1/2 my puts and will sell the rest if we bounce on the 15 min (which would be above $48.25). But I will go back to full position if we break 48 (and it’s not a fakeroo).


  318. BMY – thanks for the heads up.. I just rolled my caller down as well. this is a great spread!!


  319. AAPL hanging hard onto $131.

    j


  320. I drive a 98 volvo wagon with 120,000 miles on it.

    “It’s hip to be square” – Huey Lewis


  321. OIH- It failed $185 but acting strong considering!


  322. Demetrius,

    My next door neighbor has one of those!!!! I have a the 55, the 65 was way too much. you can get a Lambo with that kind of money

    You should have called “check”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD9tYkA8BKU

    Now thats checkmate


  323. Point taken about irrationality :) I’m not betting on a tlt collapse, just a spike in rates that I can sell against sometime in the next few months. Just got filled on another round — ’10 80′s at 1.70 — so we shall see.


  324. Phil are you keeping the CAT play over the weekend?


  325. Juliet…sounds like your daughter is keeping the high standards @ USC. Went to graduate school there in the 70′s.

    Market…been nibbling today on GOOG, DRYS, CAT Oct. calls & RIG stock, hoping not too early.


  326. That Merc is sweeeet, where in the world were they driving. Did you see the roads?? Now that would make for a great Friday night blast or a relaxed Sunday cruise.


  327. bigsmokey,

    From the perspective of pure sport, I must agree with you, the Exige gets my vote


  328. triple bottom at 145.50… If we break that, it’s going to be scary.

    I would stalemate.
    Brabus SLR McLaren
    http://www.rsportscars.com/eng/cars/brabus_slr_mclaren.asp


  329. QQQQ- looks like we may lose 48


  330. Friday – September – Bad jobs Numbers = rout


  331. Looks like we going to have -300 dow day at this rate.

    j


  332. RICK still flying, new ATH up 12% on the week.

    Tina’s a Volvo driving soccer mom too (and PTA President – please save me I’m a suburban sterotype!)

    CAT – yes because the weak dollar is good for them.

    Well this seals the deal for me, will end up with 300 DIA $132s, now $1.90 plus my Octobers vs. 200 $131 puts, now $2.25 plus Octobers XXX

    CME now really ticking me off!

    SOX holding 490 is youre looking for a bright spot. S&P should hold 1,450, Nas 2,550 is fine and Dow 13,075 is where we held for Aug 20-22 before making a run up to 13,400 and would represent a higher low than last week.

    Guy Adami agrees with me though so I may have to rethink my position… 8-)



  333. CLWR – Up almost 4% in this market! Some big volume trades between 3:25-3:35 seem to have driven it up 5%+ from being down with rest of tech. earlier. Anyone know something (there is no news)?

    I own stock in low 20s and money loosing Sep $30 Puts. It is a volatile stock, but not quite this volatile…


  334. “he’s going to keep sticking it to the music companies until he can buy one and rework the whole artist distribution model to give money directly to the bands and cut out the middlemen…. (oops, I wasn’t supposed to say that out loud – forget you heard that here). ”

    New Land Music got there first… http://newlandmusic.com/


  335. I’m out of BG.

    Is this Tina?
    Everclear – Volvo Driving Soccer Mom
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2z9HwTNQk


  336. No break of 48.


  337. CLWR – Anyone have a good options MO play? I think it is going to 27-28 – maybe even today!


  338. Demetrius,
    skyline looks like the old g35…. will consider rx7 or the rx8 Hybrid isn’t that cool.. rotary hybrid..


  339. Well, I think that’s it for me today. That was just amazing. BTW, for anyone interested, sold my QCOM puts as it was a momentum play. Sold at 42.40, very small profit.


  340. looks like higher opening for SPY on monday


  341. Cool, a hybrid won’t save it’s terrible gas mileage. Like c’mon.


  342. WOW – AIG being given away at $63ish, can’t wait for a good buy sign.

    BID’oh!

    TGT – didn’t they just have great sales that rallied the markets 48 hrs ago?

    Everclear – hey that’s great! She’ll love it – same exact car (but she only bartended at the strip club!).


  343. If spy closes at 146 that would be hilarious.


  344. phil, please email me about investing in your hedge fund. I sent you a message on the admin.


  345. from 15/18 to maybe 25/30 rotary rear wheel engines are fun to drive…


  346. plus
    i also ride my bike so that will offset the mpg… :-)


  347. I just loaded up with QQQQ 48 calls for the weekend…..to balance this weeks gains on my puts

    TGIF – Phil and all have a great weekend!


  348. grabbed DIA 132 calls for with the hope of a higher open monday for a short play. hope it works out


  349. Well that was super fun – I’m late for a meeting and, since it involves drinks, I’ve really got to go! We’ll try to figure out what happened over the weekend – have a good one everybody!


  350. Save me some scotch. Enjoy!


  351. add some grass too..haha. happy weekend..


  352. Great weekend to one all, Phil be sure not to drink and drive, i doubt they have Internet access in the county jail

    Juliet i know your all giddy, enjoy Cramer.


  353. Didn’t close exactly at 146, I was off a little. But wasn’t too bad move when we were at 148. Kinda neat how lucky I am sometimes.

    #
    Demetrius Michael
    Posted September 7, 2007 at 12:16 am | Permalink

    Some big news premarket tomorrow. Unemployment rate and non farm unemployment… Globalization taking jobs? We’ll see tomorrow.

    146 would be an interesting number for SPY if it does drop a lot tomorrow. If it breaks higher, that would be shitty for my shorts.
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70907/spy.png

    #
    Demetrius Michael
    Posted September 7, 2007 at 12:20 am | Permalink

    146ish can’t really proj well with Axis


  354. Drinking doesn’t get in the way of my driving.. *Cheers*… Have a good weekend.
    (joking)…

    If I were to drink and drive, I would drink Coke… Frig man, BBDO should hire me.


  355. Obama has a mansion too ? Can’t be in the same league as Gore or Edwards …

    Damn, Phil, maybe I really should become a Democrat.

    They all have mansions and drone on and on about the poor and the middle class while doing nothing but demagouging and spending our money.


  356. Have a good weekend all! Hey Happy my bro was saying and I completely agree with his thesis that shipping could be seen as a commodity when looking at the recent China Cosco shipping deal where they bought out an entire fleet!
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8XUvYKIlGsM&refer=asia

    They could be looked as a physical commodity so their is underlying value there or premium that is not factored in to book value.


  357. Optrader, I was asking about AAPL, not QQQQ’s (your view based only on price ?)


  358. Greg, in NY the Starbucks crowd is a bit mixed and depends on neighborhood. Lots of loonies for sure (won’t classify them as liberals, although in NYC probably 6 out 7 people are liberals anyway). Students, hipster doofuses, business folks. People do like to hang out there.

    There is like 1 on every block. I must have 5 or 6 within 2 blocks of my apartment.

    And the amazing thing is as soon as they open a new one; people show up and fill the joint. Cracks me up.

    Never did fully get it as I don’t drink the sludge, but I am happy to make $$ on the stock.


  359. Cap: making $$ off the liberal loonies that make SBUX so successful is the best revenge, you don’t have to hang out there just own the stock (options) 8-)


  360. liberals aren’t all that bad. They just have higher taxes so you can’t afford to throw things at them… But one day, one guy, could make a big difference in the world by having higher taxes.

    If he knew how to manage money, and has big dreams for the world, I could see the bar being raised. For the most part consumers are too dumb and easily manipulated to have freedom with their money.

    I would tax people 50% of their income, and those tax dollars would be locked it into their investment account for a minimum of 3 years. They can choose to manage it themselves, or hire a manager. This would increase efficiency in business development.


  361. CFC passing out some pink slips


  362. COUNTRYWIDE PLANS to reduce its work force over the next three months by 10,000 to 12,000 jobs. The largest U.S. home-mortgage lender sees its loan originations in 2008 dropping 25%. 5:24 p.m.


  363. Kustomz, saw my daughter’s faceshot during the beginning of the show and lots during the the first 15 minutes. Have a nice weekend!

    j


  364. I think it’s a threat to cut. If Countrywide did that, they wouldn’t be able to operate.

    “If you don’t cut, we won’t make any money”
    Great, what else is new?


  365. Juliet, that’s really neat that your daughter is on a tv business show when you trade at homebase. It’s like a family of traders. Pretty cool concept.


  366. Phil,

    That meeting isnt taking place on a cold linoleum floor, is it? :)


  367. Phil,

    Looking at FMD stock performance today …
    Do you know what are they going to present at Lehman Brothers Conference next week?

    At fool.com they are confident this stock is coming back. May be it’s now …

    Dim


  368. Demetrius (the Dem?)

    said….”liberals aren’t all that bad. They just have higher taxes so you can’t afford to throw things at them… But one day, one guy, could make a big difference in the world by having higher taxes.

    If he knew how to manage money, and has big dreams for the world, I could see the bar being raised.”

    Hey dude, you just described Phil, maybe HE should be our next Prez!!! Wadaya say, Phil? You’ve got my vote…

    ss


  369. CFC – Wow, again with the timing. Dear Fed – if you don’t cut rates we will slaughter 12,000 people… nice!

    There is nothing in this recent dowturn that’s the result of anything new, other than the government finally publishing the real jobs numbers (because we were incredulous at the last few great reports anyway). I know it seems crazy but this is the extent of the power of THEM to coordinate a massive attack on the economy that forces the Fed’s hand and, when they get their cut, THEY will reward the Fed with a huge rally to let them know they did the right thing but CFC will still cut 9,990 jobs and this country will still fall off a cliff at some point, but not until GS et al has time to get on that side of the trade, right now they are stuck too bullish and they’re willing to bankrupt this country to make sure they get out safely.

    Liberal looinies at SBUX – you guys are right, it turns out that only liberal loonies go to SBUX because the type of chairs they use there fail to accomodate the stick up your ass! 8-)

    Congrats on the new TV star J!

    Linoleum floor – the scary thing about Cramer is he’s not joking when he says that, people who worked with him tell me he goes pretty insane when he loses.

    FMD – simply moving on irrational (or in the bag) anticipation of a Fed cut. They borrow money at bank rates and lend it to kids so their whole business is about the margin, probably one of the purest plays to watch to guage rate sentiment. One side issue for these guys is that student loans are also asset-backed securities that are bundled and sold so legislation aimed at reforming housing may accidentally bite these guys too and that’s a good reason to be really careful trading them – because our lawmakers ARE that stupid!

    I would be VP – you seem to be able to do whatever you want in that job, President seems like a job that would totally annoy me as it’s non-stop BS appearances and meetings and endless ceremonies with little actual work being done. In fact, I’ve heard our current President hasn’t had time to read a book in 8 years!


  370. You don’t need higher taxes to fix the economy, Forbes is right in general, a flat tax of 25% with NO exceptions for housholds over the median and progressive but flat from $20-50K coupled with a VAT tax for corporations (a tax on goods and services they buy) to avoid all the crooked crap they do with their books could bring in about $3T a year by simply eliminating the cheating.

    That’s $500Bn more than we get now and if we wind down the war over 4 years (not being ambitious) that’s another $200Bn a year we save. Then I set up a rock stready earmark that guarantees $500Bn a year in payments to pay down the debt along with a serious balanced budget ammendment and I refinance the debt at 4% over 30 years, which people would jump on because the new structure would turn the dollar into a home-run currency (and don’t forget countries like China, Germany and Japan would love a stable place to dump the $10T they currently hold).

    Those 30-year notes would actually cost us “Just” $360Bn to service the interest so even if we don’t put anything more than the $500Bn a year into debt repayment (and this is not much more than we currently pay in just interest) we would still retire $4.2T worth of the debt over 30 years. Assuming a steady $11.5Bn a month were put into retiring the debt, then we would actually be down to less than $4T after 30 years through the magic of pre-payments!

    In 30 years, even with 2% economic growth, the remaining $4T will be VERY manageable.

    The next big deal is Social Security. We’ve taken care of the $1.9T we owe them as part of our debt but that’s not going to solve the problem of us having just 2 workers for each retired person in 2040 as 50M retired people getting $1,500 a month in benefits = $900Bn a year!

    Since we will eliminate 75% of the deficit by then we will have an extra $500Bn a year laying around by then anyway but that’s no way to plan a budget so we should begin a plan to have $22.5T set aside by then so 4% interest alone will be enough to fund the system. Luckily we just paid them back the $1.9T we stole from them so we can compound that out to $9.4T at just 4%, which means we’re short $13.1T, which can be handled by adding just $135Bn a year on the same 4% schedule (compounding monthly).

    Winding down the war alone would cover that with plenty to spare and, if not, it’s really just a 1% tax on the GDP to fix the system (AFTER we pay back what we stole). So remember that when morons on TV tell you it’s an unfixable problem and we should start screwing the poor people now and get it over with.

    Well that wasn’t so hard – I’ll see you later, I have to go fix the middle east! Perhaps I’ll start by placing a .50 per gallon tax on all fuel consumption (we were just paying that much a few months ago so it won’t “wreck the economy”), that’s $153Bn a year I’ll have earmarked for alternative energy research annually that me and the boys at OPEC can bat around. If they threaten to raise prices, I’ll threaten to raise the tax bring it up to $300Bn a year on research.

    Only 16M cars and trucks are sold a year so we’ve got (at just $153Bn) about $10K per car to make sure they’re more fuel efficient. Since Lexus charges just $3,500 more for the hybrid SUV than the regular, let’s say a $5K per vehicle allowance will allow us to raise mileage on new cars from 22mpg to 35mpg, which would save us 1M barrels of oil per day once we convert the US fleet (about 7 years). So that’s 1/2 of my $153Bn budget spent to immediately knock 1M barrels a wek off exports and another 1MB a week less every year for the next 7 year and I still have $76Bn left to play with!

    This is not a very ambitious program as the Honda insight gets 63 MPG and people in Europe pay $6 per gallon for gas and their economy is kicking our asses but I expect to get hundreds of millions in contributions from energy companies to go easy on them so I’m being nice! 8-)

    Since the entire market cap of PEIX is $500M and FSLR is $7Bn and SPWR is $6Bn, I figure we can get something done with $67Bn a year (and don’t forget, that’s just .25 per gallon). I know Al Gore was lauged out of Congress when he wanted to put a .075 per gallon tax on gasoline for energy research back in 1992 because it would drive up energy prices and destroy the country but I’m willing to take Congress on for this one…


  371. It makes too much sense Phil, it will never work.


  372. Yes logic isn’t allowed in our nations capital. The politicians live in their fantasy fairy tale world..everything is wonderful and tomorrow isn’t here yet. So drink the coolaid and be quite.
    It’s a wonderful day in the neighborhood wonderful day in the neighborhood.


  373. Fire Destroys Bush Presidential Library
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A tragic fire on Monday destroyed the personal library of President George W. Bush. Both of his books have been lost.


  374. Phil, We can’t afford to have you waste your valuable time in politics, but we need to find a proxy to run in your stead, and he can only voice your opinions, cleared by members ( majority vote) just to make sure you don’t go off the deep end.
    I am serious, how do we get your kind of common sense into our kids future and lead our country back to moral and ethical leadership?Jamie
    .


  375. Were they in the bathroom?


  376. Phil,
    Appreciate your response on USO vs integrated oils — certainly the better call to have puts on COP/XOM than USO yesterday… although the manipulation into the last 1/2 hour of NYMEX CL trading (2-2:30pm EST) in each of the last three days is almost unbelievable!

    My apologies for this “dumb” newbie question but I’m having a a bit of difficulty navigating your portfolio positions. Reading through your comments section from Thurs and Fri, I would have thought there would be IBM Oct 115 calls and COP Oct 80 puts in the portfolio but don’t seem to see them in the downloadable Excel spreadsheet. What am I doing wrong?


  377. Phil,

    Any thoughts on PGR ’10 20 Leaps @ 4.3 and the Sept or Oct 20′s at .3 or .8. Sounds pretty good long term.


  378. Phil et al.
    I am looking for a site that list historical values for calls/puts. I want to know what has been the history of an option at different stock prices so I can try to figure out what the “expected” prices might be. I am trying to not overpay for options. I have to take a big hit because I did not know the recent price of something and paid too much for too many options. I hate to lose money!!!!
    Thanks.


  379. RE: The 2 presidential books.. he was almost thru coloring one too.


  380. You guys are too tough on the old President. He is a busy man and just does not have time for that book stuff. Besides that is all that northeast liberal school stuff that he left behind after his MBA. What is so frustrating is that he actually received (I sure not earned) an MBA. He would have made a good baseball commissioner. He just missed his calling and too many of you all voted for the fool.


  381. For those of you who loves AAPL like I do, here is a great site to get all the news on AAPL.

    http://www.appleinvestornews.com/page-one.html

    j


  382. Politics – well I always did want to be the man behind the throne but Karl Rove made it seem so sleezy…

    LOL size!

    Spreadsheets – there are dates on them but generally they are updated weekly. Add-ons are made in chat and summarized in portfolio moves and exits are usually at the end of the wrap-up, as long as I have time (all this tedious stuff really drags me down during the week).

    PGR – I do like them down here but AIG got really attractive now so I’ll probably be waiting for those first in that sector (although, obviously, very different ends of it).

    I subscribe to Investools, which gives you historical option pricing – couldn’t live without it…

    LOL Don, that’s some pretty funny joke topping by you guys!

    If Bush were baseball commissioner I’d bet baseball would be a disaster.


  383. Agree about the disaster of baseball with Bush as commissioner but at least he would not be taking all down the drain with him, not counting the GI’s, Iraqi and world opinion. It is hard to understand how much worst baseball could be with Bushie but he does, I am afraid, exceed my imagination in f@#k#d up situations. Sorry about the politics but my son recently came back from Iraq, and he and I cannot understand what it is all about. However, he is going to Japan for three years, thanks to the Army, so over the winter need any inside information on Japan let me know.
    Will look into Investools. Thanks.
    How do you find time for just the simple things of life, not counting the required things, like eating, sleeping etc.? I am impressed with your stamina!!


  384. I think the only reason Bush agreed to be president is that someone told him it would look good on his resume for baseball commissioner.


  385. Phil, Tediuos stuff is for machines.

    Let me googling some this week, but on a first seen I think a possible solution would be.
    1) you only must standarize on a format e.g *b 250 GOOPY sept 07 130@12.5 --any comments would be here--* b=buy 250=#contracts sept 07=expiration 130@12.5=strike & price etc..
    2) Implement some logic in for example php with sed parser language if is gonna hold in a server, asigning elements to variables
    3) write those variables on a database e.g mysql
    4) connect the spreadsheet with some logic macros (mainly sum diference buy/sales symbols) to the database

    you can choose any format to be implemented the only mandate is you follow it and it will work well for you


  386. lol cars can’t be efficient, it’s an engineers oxymoron. Most of the combustion energy is turned into heat and never used… That’s why we have big intercoolers (turbo engines) and radiators (every engine, incl turbo’d) to cool our crap engines…
    If hybrids were taken seriously we would have hybrid diesel engines.

    With that said, batteries suck too much to be completely electric…. Sure GM had the tech to build a car that could travel trillion km on a single charge, but they’re not exactly ran on capacitors. The lifespan on a battery is like a minute, it weighs a ton, and recycling them is not fun either.

    Honda’s giving 62mpg is just a computer leaning out the air / fuel ratio, rather than any actual technological advance. Give me C16 gas and a 1.6L 6A10 Mitsubishi engine with aluminum internals, and i’ll give you a 100mpg car or a 400 hp race car (your choice).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_6A1_engine

    (google, the Kotsumi’s brothers about their little project with the 1.6L engine)

    Mileage is also pretty dependent on gearing, weight, drag, rotational mass, etc. Manufacturers can cheaply manipulate the numbers in their favor without actually improving on the tech itself. This is such a problem, because everyone’s fooled and the consumer is left with the bag.

    If anything I would focus more on rail technology…. Maglev transportation has some very interesting prospects. Cars would always be nice traveling intra-city, but inter-city / state / province / country transport would be more economical done by rail.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maglev_train

    —-
    this is a neat electric evo. http://car-reviews.automobile.com/Mitsubishi/concept/2005-mitsubishi-lancer-evo-ix-miev-concept/1462/


  387. Demetrius,

    Have you seen http://www.teslamotors.com/ ?

    Dim


  388. Irishred,

    Check this site out http://www.optionistics.com


  389. 98k to buy tesla motors… amount to combustion i have to do to make up that much money????


  390. I’m another recent member of the list, Hello to all. Lots of great things here.

    I hadn’t done any option trading till recently so much is new to me, though i’ve been actively trading gold/silver futures spreads for 18 months. At the moment I’m in Asia (12 hours difference) so I tend to drop off before EST lunch, though with the great market action of the last couple of weeks i’ve sometimes stuck it through to the close – luckily i don’t have to be up early.

    I’m gradually trying to read some of the old transcripts – there’s a lot of it so forgive me if there are things i’ve missed. I would echo comments made by other new members about ideas for collecting info in one place and also the difficulty of following trades.

    Phil, a couple of questions. I’m trying to implement some long leap, short front month spreads. It may not be an ideal time, but looking at say CAT, AAPL, WMT. Are the any metrics you use, or is it more a big picture thing?

    Also the IBM Oct $115s – is this a naked position as you said there is usually no point in buying Oct to sell the same strike Sept, or what are you covering with?


  391. 98k for testla – it is like if somebody offered you iPhone 3 years ago, but now it’s just 399 :-) So far this is just about “changing perception” …


  392. comparing iphone and cars.. com’on !!!!

    i rather buy a diesel car and then get the conversion kit for 10k and run it on unused vegetable oil for life..
    that is changing perception to me


  393. i dont even want to get in “changing perception”….
    if most people start driving manual their mileage would go up at least 5mpg.. but what do we want ‘comfort’ of automatic transmission.. and the cars under 20k if u buy manual trans it cost 1k-1.5k less than automatic transmission..
    there is so much more that can be done without even paying 35k for a hybrid..


  394. Phil,
    You said: “I subscribe to Investools, which gives you historical option pricing – couldn’t live without it…”. How do you use historical data of option prices as against the underlying stock price history?


  395. ss – I would vote for phil. But for my vote I would probably want a pet that could do tricks. I tried teaching my last dog to “sit”… Impossible.

    Dim – Tesla’s are very cool, and intelligently built. They run off of 500Kgs worth of Li-ion AAs. Well I lied, but it’s something very similar to a AA, the actual dimensions are bit bigger than a AA. The neat thing is that every Tesla built would be virtually the same in charge capacity and reliability. The shitty thing is that the batteries are expensive and heavy… For now at-least…. To a thousandaire.

    Denis – Why not Target instead of Walmart?… I’ve heard better things, but you would have to check up with phil on that.

    Cool – Porsche’s tritronic (or whatever it’s called) has better mpg than manual’s…. Btw anyone seen the new GT2!!!!!

    All hail the GT2.
    http://www.porsche.com/microsite/911gt2/usa.aspx


  396. I changed my mind about bribing phil for a pet… I want a GT2. It’s okay though, because he could always hedge that purchase with buying oil.


  397. and hey denis! Welcome to the investment club… I’m newish too, but it’s easy to catch up.

    Nadir, I went to that site, clicked on “picking winning stocks” and they gave me this quote: “The probability of a stock going up is equal to it going down.”… How much do you trust this site?


  398. Phil to sweeten the deal, I would even let you have your own colour as part of your campaign. America will make it official, and your kids could say “my dad’s my favorite colour” and it’ll make sense!… Try teach Asia english now!

    Jay-Z even did that with “Jay-Z blue”
    http://www.hiphopdx.com/index/news/id.4784/title.jay-z-blue-the-new-color-for-gmc

    I don’t get it either.


  399. Thanks Rank, I think we’re going to set up an easy way for me to send alerts straight from comments so let’s see what the design guys come up with. Meanwhile all these requests have set us back yet another week and we’ll never get the new system up at this rate so perhaps we should put it up first before everyone decides how much we need to change it.

    Right now a draft version is up at http://philstockworld.webdesignid.com/ and I sure would like to hear everyone’s comments. One change we’re already making is when you click on a specific article the sidebar will get smaller so we have more room (the same as we have now).

    Efficient cars – you’re right about that but that’s why we need to set acheivable standards. The goal I set is nothing more than Europe has now and it cuts our gasoline use by better than 20% over 7 years. There are 100 other things we could do with a strong commitment to change, including hydrogen fuel cells but the trick is to make it pay and have our top scientists working on solving this problem instead of how to ad a 6th blade to a razor.

    Out of my $68Bn a year I’d take $11Bn the first year and set up a prize that offers major prizes each month for the best energy saving ideas in the country. We set up a foundation/think tank and select winners on a state by state ($250K), regional ($5M) and national ($25M/$15M/$5M) in a kind of national talent competition that we could televise weekly to raise energy awarness in the country (kind of like America’s Got Talent for scientists). Do that for 5 years and I bet you get a few more kids studying science in school and a lot more companies funding a little R&D and a hell of a lot of good ideas to save energy.

    We have plenty of money left over for the for profit wing of my foundation to fund the best ideas and bring them to the marketplace. If we could knock off just 2% of our national fuel consumption for 7 years, that’s 14%, another 3M barrels a day we won’t need, that would correspond to weekly builds of 21M barrels, plus the 7M barrels we save on fuel, 28M barrel builds at each energy report should probably keep prices down.

    If we run my policy (which requires just a .50/gallon tax on fuel) it would cost Americans no more that we paid in the spring but if we can work the savings through the system and drive oil back to $40, it will still save us $14 per barrel off our current $75, which puts $102Bn a year back in consumers’ pockets, even after paying the tax and buys America an energy independent future, better national security and a cleaner environment.

    Weclome Denis!

    CAT/APPL/WMT – Got ‘em, Got ‘em, Need ‘em. My long-term plays have two main criteria, I want a stock that I feel strongly will beat the strike + premium in X amount of time WITHOUT dropping more than 10% and my anticipated premium sales must exceed the value of my contract. Usually I will plot out what I feel is the most likely path for the next 6 months and anticipate my next 6 sales. Then I track the first 3 months very closely to see if I am “on plan.” Once I get past 3 sales, usually there is enough profit in the trade that I no longer have to worry about it.

    IBM – I don’t cover everything but if we get another rejection about $118, THEN I would sell the Sept $115s. my real objection was selling it for $2.50 when it was over $4 just the day before. In this particular trade we were looking for IBM to break over $118 on it’s second attempt for the week, it didn’t and, although I pressed the trade, it is now suspect and needs to be watched closely.

    I’m waiting for the Telsa SUV. Jay Leno makes an excellent point in his review of the car – a 200 mile range is really a 100 mile range because you have to come back. This is the chicken and egg problem we have with new technology and laissez-faire capitalism. The vested interests of Telsa motors (that there be charging stations in parking lots around the country) is not only very difficult to justify economically but puts them in opposition to the embedded monopoly of fuel providers who have a $547Bn/year (just the $75 US barrel price, NOT including the 68% markup you pay at $3 a gallon) head start on Telsa and can lobby them out of existance by simply NOT providing for charging stations.

    It’s so easy NOT to do something. That’s the game of politics (which our current administration plays like pros with energy and environmental policies – even the war policy, not that they’ve thrown us in it is NOT to make hasty changes) as doing something takes an effort and requires sacrifice and recourses (the kind we rallied after 9/11) but not doing something requires change, even to try to put things back the way they were before you made a mistake (kind of like when you take a hit to exit a position). By the time we realize the cost of doing nothing exceeds the cost of doing something, it is often far too late to do anything without admiting that everything you did so far was a mistake, and most people/traders/governments can’t handle that.

    Historical option pricing – the further back you go, the less useful it is because time decay is too much of a factor but when I’m looking at the IBM calls we discussed above and I check the movement of that contract for the week compared to the movement of the stock, that helps me pick a good buy and sell point.

    TGT is better than WMT but WMT is more beaten down (35% below TGT’s 1-year performance) and not worth not getting just because they’re not as good (as a long-term play).


  400. Oops, I do have WMT, I have the Jan ’09 $50s, which I bought at $3.65, now $2.95 and intend to roll to the ’09 $45s, now $4.90 and wait a bit to see if we get a bounce.


  401. Demetrius,
    Not too much, I just use it for the data it provides on a specific option symbol, it chart theoretical prices of specific options over time, ang also shows the different greek values, its the closest thing I have to hitorical option pricing.


  402. I like the organization of the new site. One thing I didn’t see is a “forums” section. Is this something that will be left out of the new site or am I just not seeing it?

    I always felt the forums section of the current site was underutilized and would be a great place to post specific examples of your different trade strategies (calendar spreads, mo’s, etc.). I was envisioning something like,

    Topic: Phil’s LTP play – BMY

    Why you like BMY for the LTP?
    Why the Jan 2010 for $2.88?
    Why sell the Sep 30s for $0.65?

    And then a continuous update of the post as your ideas about the position change.

    I know you already provide this information in the comments section, but over time the lessons become scattered and are eventually lost.

    Just an idea. Keep up the great work.


  403. Excellent market commentary & TA – You Tube clip on the Madd Money site http://maddmoney.blogspot.com/


  404. I was just scrolling through stocks, and just wondering what you think. I’m not really an experienced technical trader, but I learn pretty quick, so any advice I would appreciate.

    JPM – Looks like it’s in a channel. how about a short near 44.20 and stop out if it closes above?
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70909/jpm.png

    PFE – Might get a retrace to 24.4. how about short, with a short stop if the touches an intra-day 24.7, or closes above last bar?
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70909/pfe.png

    SBUX – I’m thinking short around 27.3, cover if over last bar high. I see it dropping to 26.5.
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70909/sbux.png

    SPY – This one is really confusing, so I threw in a 150 EMA to make things a bit clearer. It looks like it could be a reversal,but the fundamentals are pretty bad. I’m already shorting this, maybe stop out if I get a close above the 150EMA or a high over 147.1. If it breaks down, maybe add to the shorts?
    http://web.mac.com/dem_z/PSW/70909/spy.png


  405. Demetrius

    Porsche tritronic.. i was talking about the average American .. if i could afford porsche i would rather buy the Tesla :-)


  406. Phil, many thanks for detailed explain of the leap spreads and IBM trade.

    The new site looks slick but as WD3 and RX say in detail I think the key to it is linking information about specific trades and strategies so it’s easy to find again. The database or wiki ideas sound on the right track – forums and blogs are hard to navigate, but I appreciate it’s much harder to implement.


  407. Phil, on friday you wrote

    “As I previously announced, Happy and I will be combining our styles and teaming up to make a new Happy 100 (for $100K) folder, which we are going ahead and launching for the members, even though the market stinks, as we figure now is the time people need it the most. We’re going to run it through the end of the year and track it on the public site (although intra-day alerts will be for members only), more on this over the weekend.”
    Now, I understand that Happy sends email alerts on his member site, will your intraday alerts regarding “Happy 100″ take that form too or will it be as now?
    I am holding back from entering any new LTP till the launch.


  408. The new site looks great, but I hope it’s not in sacrifice of functionality. I like this site, it’s simple and it works.


  409. You would buy a Tesla over a porsche? What about practicality?

    “Hi welcome to Best Buy”
    “Yah, I’m looking for about 7 thousand AA batteries for my car”
    “Ummm we only have Panasonic left”
    “No Duracell?”
    “No sorry”
    “NOOOOOOOOOOO”


  410. Nadir

    Thanks for the address. Looks like it might be just what the doctor ordered. Phil had recommended a site but it was a pretty steep fee of 149 dollars/month. I am not at the level where I can justify that much. You must walk before you can run, as I try to remind myself everyday. Eventually I may use his site but not just yet.

    That is what I love about this site. You all are the eyes/ears of the market. You do drive me a little nutty when we get off message but thanks regardless.
    Let’s make some money!!


  411. coolkid, Tesla looks like a real nice car, but I’ll never change my Porsche for that one. My ultimate dream car is Ferrari 599 GTB. She’s a beauty.

    http://cache.jalopnik.com/cars/assets/resources/2006/09/Ferrari-599-GTB.jpg

    j


  412. I drove that, it’s a good car. It’s basically an F430 for old people. The Hamann version is a bit nicer…


  413. whoa that came out really bad, it’s an excellent car, I’m not saying you’re old at all. It’s just unusually comfortable for such a sports car.


  414. juliet,

    even though Tesla is not porsche it will be one a kind.. lots of head turning, cuz hardly seen on the street….

    my dram car
    2008 shelby mustang 600hp…. holy s***..

    also Cadillac sixteen 1000hp.. man i will definately be in jail riding that monster.


  415. coolkid, that is so true. Tesla is a one of a kind and beautiful as well.

    j


  416. I’m not a big fan of the Fool, but I agree with this guy:
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/09/18/say-good-night-lendie.aspx