OIH getting hammered, interesting to see whogets sold off first.
X doing well, China messing around with the steel markets will probably drive up prices.
FSLR testing $100
Ideally, I wouldn’t mind seeing a run-up into oil inventories so we can recylcle our bets after lightening up last week but they’re having trouble holdin it together and the whole market looks shaky.
AAPL – there’s a big spread so those are pretty random numbers. Still I always put an order in to roll down $10 for $3.50 or less as a rule of thumb (it’s a guaranteed 65% gain on position for the 35% investment).
Covered the rest of my Apple calls at $7.40 selling the $130s
Credit no such thing as bullish on a number that’s 45 days old already – it’s a different world today and news can only be worse than expected.
Finger on trigger of DIA puts and out of calls if we turn down here (and we probably will).
SU $90 puts at $1.88 are fun in case OPEC releases more oil (that’s their competition).
SU $90 puts at $1.88 are fun in case OPEC releases more oil (that’s their competition).
Clank, clank but beware of a market clunk today.
I do recommend weighting to the downside on DIA or whatever plays right now. If the market goes up (other than a fed thing) it will be slow but down can come quickly.
Consumer credit was way down at $8Bn vs. $9.5Bn expected – that’s 20% and indicates the average analyst has NO CLUE what is going on in the economy!
Very bad not likely to bounce off this before 13,050.
DIA – last bought Sept $131 at $2 – that’s the rule, buy the one that’s about $2 but these are now mo plays, real money goes to Oct but you only buy those when you are heading the “wrong” way to save money. With just 2 weeks left to expire, these are strict 20% take the money and run plays and don’t complain about 10% either! Losing 10% is simply a bad idea on the Septs. My October puts are now the $130 puts at $3.25, that’s about the right price with 45 days to go – calls can use the same numbers but, at this particular moment, my goal is to buy the $132 calls, now $3.80 for $3.25 on a downturn.
Someone is messing with the Dow, the other indices aren’t confirming a bounce and oil is weakening – watch VLO, which is leading the way down.
The brokers are also holding up the markets ahead of next week’s earnings. If they fail the Nasdaq cannot support the market by itself.
HES off a cliff.
IBM continuing to fight the good fight.
AMGN – damn, Happy and I were going to put that in the 100 but I guess we’d better grab some Jan $52.50s for $4 XXX
Market up VIX up is sign of the apocalypse but VIX is an S&P measure, not a Dow measure and the S&P is down so the angry VIX is to be expected.
Now I see a pattern of solar plays failing and that indicates a long-term sentiment shift in oil prices (long-term for traders meaning longer than Wednesday) but X flipped on me big time which should concern everybody!
Duck AND cover folks!!!
BTU is best running energy play so the Oct $40s are fun at .70, let’s go for 10 in the $10KP with a stop at .50 looking for $1.10. XXX
LVS Oct $95 puts at $3.70 – you know they’re going down sometime!
Index – see happy’s chart on the SPX from the weekend.
BTU no I got the Oct $40 PUTS for .75, my bad. XXX
Mattresses, if you are committed to a position you should be taking up the $130 puts on the DIA right now at $1.70 and putting a stop on your $131 puts at $2.10 to net you the $130 puts at $1.60 which you would stop out at $1.40. Simultaneously, you should, if we drop 50, start rolling down your calls to the $131s when they hit $2. This is for the mo players – if all you are looking to do is protect your virtual portfolio, you should just tighten up the Octobers every 100 points.
IBM – I still like them but I’m selling the $115s for $2.58 against the Octobers, covering pretty much all psoitions for now. XXX
Janet Yellin speaks soon – watch out for upside surprise now – DIA $131s are the cover play to the upside. Normal tight stops rules apply for Sept calls you sold that you are ahead on or any Sept/Oct postion that can get burned on an upside reverse.
Yellen says big market turmoil but she is NOT convinced that means fed action required! That’s one of 4 Fed speakers missing the bull mark. “Lack of confidence in derivative could permanently cut credit.” “Return to NORMAL risk premiums can be very painful” They are trying to make this sound bullish on CNBC but IT IS NOT!
Oh – I won’t be here tomorrow, probably at all, maybe in the late afternoon. So my plan, with Bernanke speaking is to cover tightly with October calls and take my lumps if I have to on that end but generally still bearish because if the Cramer crew wants a cut, letting Bernanke know it tomorrow with a huge sell-off if he doesn’t throw them a bone may be their best chance – on the 18th it will be too late with the next Fed meeting on Oct 30th.
MCD holding up the Dow with a 1.5% gain. PG holding up too and INTC so look for that group to fail for the next leg down. XOM, CAT and AA need to lead a turnaround.
Oh – I won’t be here tomorrow, probably at all, maybe in the late afternoon. So my plan, with Bernanke speaking is to cover tightly with October calls and take my lumps if I have to on that end but generally still bearish because if the Cramer crew wants a cut, letting Bernanke know it tomorrow with a huge sell-off if he doesn’t throw them a bone may be their best chance – on the 18th it will be too late with the next Fed meeting on Oct 30th.
MCD holding up the Dow with a 1.5% gain. PG holding up too and INTC so look for that group to fail for the next leg down. XOM, CAT and AA need to lead a turnaround.
YRCW looking catastrophic – very bad sign for the general economy.
How my mind works – since I am going to be out tomorrow and I know that I will NEED to cover with additional DIA calls by EOD, I do start to initiate with the Oct $132s here at $3.40 as I don’t anticipate a much better price than $3.50 unless we make another leg down in which case I will spend another .45 to roll it. Accumulating, of course between now and 4 pm, if the market turns I swithch to the Oct $133s.
AMGN – I ran the numbers on them and I’m comfortable that worst-case still puts them over $55 (value-wise, sentiment-wise remains to be seen).
DNDN picks the funniest times to come off the floor!
AMGN – I ran the numbers on them and I’m comfortable that worst-case still puts them over $55 (value-wise, sentiment-wise remains to be seen).
DNDN picks the funniest times to come off the floor!
DNDN – I don’t even bother looking because it’s all noise. I have leaps and I just threw a few bucks at the Jan $7.50/Sept $7.50 in a 4:3 spread at .40 (net). If there was ever a poster child for Rule #1 (Always sell into the initial excitement) it’s these guys!
IBM – unless it gets too crazy (more than $118) I’ll probably take the premium but I’m likely to buy back 1/4 at each $1 breakout from here but time is most certainly on my side.
DNDN – tons of shorts trapped. I just trapped myself with 75 short calls! 
XOM/All oil – I’m half out on this nice dip ahead of the usual run-up into inventory. If it keeps crashing, there’s a long way to go but I’ve seen too many good gains wiped out to just ‘go for it” with oil puts.
Is holding out for a double greedy – er, yes! You don’t have to sell all but selling none is a bit much. You can always roll down to the $80 puts if you think it’s going to go down so far. That gets half your money off the table and still gives you most of the upside move as both positions have about the same vega.
DNDN – good trick actually now that I see what they’re doing. When they take the stock up on a 99% down day (which happens pretty much every time) it runs as one of the only greens in the market and pops up on a lot of scans so they get great bang for the momentum buck.
SHLD – thanks for reminding me! Jan ‘10 $140s at $31 are good for me! Hopefully I won’t have to sell $130s but, if I do, $3.50 premium is not bad for a first sale! XXX
IBM – too restrictive to the upside, I’m buying the IBMs because I think they will break $120, I’m just not sure when…
Filled SHLD at $30 right away, made me nervous!
SHFL I’ve got the ‘09 $20s, looking to DD at $1.80 but no takers yet.
SHLD is a pending LTP play but first it has to make me some money in the STP before I take that risk.
Posted September 10, 2007 at 1:02 pm Permalink (Edit)
Oil pulling up this afternoon, back at $76. NYMEX traders just want to be absolutely sure they bankrupt the country, not leaving anything to chance… Oil patch not buying it yet but if they cna get some upside mo than that break up may rally the markets (dumb as that is) so watch VLO to hit $68 and XLE to make it back to $70.
We’re holding 13,050 and NYSE 9,400 and S*P 1,440(5 for that matter) and Nas 2,550. All numbers we would have been thrilled with the week of the 20th… Watch the SOX, still positive due to Apple buying every chip on the planet…
Always remember if the Dow gets away from you to the upside, the FXI is a pretty good lagger to pick up.
NMX flying – something must have gone their way…
SHFL – I just have the leaps. I like them long-term so I have an ‘09 entry and will DD on bad earnings.
NMX – selling $130s for $5 if I can XXX if you have the margin for it. Should be very hard for them to break $135 by the 21st.
CHK – must put them into STP, I keep forgetting. Caller is in for $34.10 against my Jans and the stock is at $33.71, I have no reason to give him .40 and give up $1.20 of downside protection just now.
GS taking off so I covered my $175 puts with 3/4 $200 puts rather than take the loss. I need a $5 move for this to work so I’m looking to get out at $188 unless we are really taking off. XXX if you’re in that one.
