Archive for 2007

Bond Investing, James Bond That Is!

Well, we stuck to our guns and stayed short on the market and, painful though it was at times, we sure were richly rewared for it this week!

My long-time readers know I don't set out looking to be bearish – I never have fun shorting the market as I like to stay on the positive side of things but, as a fundamentalist, when I don't like the undercurrents that are forming in the markets I'm not so hopelessly optimistic that I don't shift the virtual portfolio to an appropriately negative stance.

One of the mistakes many traders make is they become attached to their positions and seek to defend them, despite new data coming in.  I suppose part of this is that a natural fondness you develop for a position that's "been good to you" in the past and the other part is that everybody hates to admit they are wrong – and selling something you bought, especially with a small or not profit, is an admission you made a mistake.

There's a James Bond marathon on one of the cable channels this weekend and it struck me that he would make a good trader.  Bond searches for clues, takes calculated risks, isn't afraid to get shot at once in a while and leads with his instincts but then questions his own decisions along the way.   James Bond isn't afraid to to commit to a position but he's always ready in case the ally he's with at the moment suddenly pulls a knife on him.  Bond forms temporary alliances with people (positions) he hates because he is focused on the big picture – solving the case.

In Octopussy, James Bond bids on a Faberge egg at an auction, not because he wants it, but to flush out who the real buyers are.  He then follows that egg around the world, picking up clues along the way but he is patient and, when the opportunity presents itself, he takes decisive action based on the best information he has available.  In one scene he is able to fight with a woman, make love to here and then arrest her and he's not ashamed or embarrassed by his changes of heart – this is how we need to be with our positions!  Sometimes we love them and sometimes we hate them and sometimes they are
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Bond Investing, James Bond That Is!

Well, we stuck to our guns and stayed short on the market and, painful though it was at times, we sure were richly rewared for it this week!

My long-time readers know I don't set out looking to be bearish – I never have fun shorting the market as I like to stay on the positive side of things but, as a fundamentalist, when I don't like the undercurrents that are forming in the markets I'm not so hopelessly optimistic that I don't shift the virtual portfolio to an appropriately negative stance.

One of the mistakes many traders make is they become attached to their positions and seek to defend them, despite new data coming in.  I suppose part of this is that a natural fondness you develop for a position that's "been good to you" in the past and the other part is that everybody hates to admit they are wrong – and selling something you bought, especially with a small or not profit, is an admission you made a mistake.

There's a James Bond marathon on one of the cable channels this weekend and it struck me that he would make a good trader.  Bond searches for clues, takes calculated risks, isn't afraid to get shot at once in a while and leads with his instincts but then questions his own decisions along the way.   James Bond isn't afraid to to commit to a position but he's always ready in case the ally he's with at the moment suddenly pulls a knife on him.  Bond forms temporary alliances with people (positions) he hates because he is focused on the big picture – solving the case.

In Octopussy, James Bond bids on a Faberge egg at an auction, not because he wants it, but to flush out who the real buyers are.  He then follows that egg around the world, picking up clues along the way but he is patient and, when the opportunity presents itself, he takes decisive action based on the best information he has available.  In one scene he is able to fight with a woman, make love to here and then arrest her and he's not ashamed or embarrassed by his changes of heart – this is how we need to be with our positions!  Sometimes we love them and sometimes we hate them and sometimes they are
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Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 22, 2007 at 9:22 am | Permalink (Edit)

Big Internet sector upgrade, let’s see if its a scam to help people out – the theme of the week has been push the horsemen while the big boys sell. Just a coincidence I’m sure!

Posted June 22, 2007 at 9:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

BX – the time to buy them is when they have a bad Q and drop off once they establish themselves. I can’t wait for the PSW IPO, I hope I’m not as old as Schwarzman when it happens! It is sooooo overprices, you would be mad to buy it other than a pure gamble.

Posted June 22, 2007 at 9:38 am | Permalink (Edit)

Best move at the moment is to have fingers on the trigger of DIA $135s at $1 in case BX rallies the Dow, I’m taking a bunch but will sell at .90 very quickly. XXX

Posted June 22, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

Rebalancing – non event usually but with 2000 stocks there’s always something exciting that happens.

GOOG exploding, taking out callers and my put, will restablish later. XXX

Posted June 22, 2007 at 10:01 am | Permalink (Edit)

Which months of OIH? Right now I’m very happy with the selling the naked $180 call for $5.20 but its a very high-margin play where I would flip them to 2x $185s and another 2x $190s if it keeps breaking levels on me but it’s a nice payoff if we ever get a pullback. You can play the Aug $185s for $5.70 and sell the July $175s for $8.40, also risky but more manageable margin-wise or the spread of the Aug/July $175 put is just $2 so you’d only be hoping it doesn’t drop too fast.

Posted June 22, 2007 at 10:11 am | Permalink (Edit)

Covering GOOG if it breaks below $521, very happy to gain ground on my callers. Will now sell $520 calls at no less than $16 ($1 trailing stop) getting $8K back rather than…
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TGIF!

The music must change!

"The music must change
For we’re chewing a bone
We soared like the sparrow hawk flied
Then we dropped like a stone
Like the tide and the waves
Growing slowly in range
Crushing mountains as old as the Earth
So the music must change"

That’s the song I have going through my head this morning because, so far, it’s been the "Same Old Song" all week and I remain unimpressed by market movements that have been full of sound and fury but, ultimately, have signified nothing.

So let’s get this week over with and get to next week where we have some real data.  Did I say data?  Sorry, I meant DATA!  Usually I wait until next week to post the Briefing.com Economic Calendar but I’m just so darned excited about next week I just can’t wait:

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior
Jun 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales May   5.85M 6.00M 5.99M
Jun 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun   105.5 106.0 108.0
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May   900K 925K 981K
Jun 27 08:30 Durable Orders May   -2.0% -1.0% 0.8%
Jun 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/22   NA

LOL! ===>

6902K
Jun 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q1   0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Jun 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1   4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Jun 28 08:30 Initial Claims 06/23   315K NA 324K
Jun 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May   29 29 29
Jun 28 14:15 FOMC policy statement

Cue

the

Scary

Music!

 
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Income May   0.6% 0.6% -0.1%
Jun 29 08:30 Personal Spending May   0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Jun 29 08:30 Core PCE Inflation May   0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Jun   58.0 58.0 61.7
Jun 29 10:00 Construction Spending May   0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jun 29 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun   83.7


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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 21, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

Oil crooks are getting greedy, this is no time to go for $70 but they want to establish high ground on the new contract.

XOM $85s are $1.40 and make a good cover IF it starts to run past $84 but I’m not selling until they show me the money at $70 (will DD and roll a few if given the chance as I cut back on all yesterday).

Posted June 21, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink (Edit)

Selling OIH $175s for $6.20 against Aug $180s for $6.30 – selling first and buying Aug at no more than $6.60 but hopefully enough less to put me in a credit spread. XXX

Posted June 21, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

BBY and SBUX (and everything) covered – I only hope they are covered enough!

OIH, if it keeps going down I may just take the money on the sold calls and not bother with the other end. XX

XOM still in denial, $80 puts back to .53 and worth a gamble XXX

Posted June 21, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink (Edit)

PTR getting a lot of sellers, worth selling the $145 calls for $8 XXX

Posted June 21, 2007 at 10:10 am | Permalink (Edit)

By the way – these are day tades with 15% trailing stops, just hoping for a nice downturn but don’t forget the gas report is at 10:30 so be ready to get out if they rally.

Posted June 21, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – what I am now doing is working into a spread of the $80 puts, now .47 and the $85 calls, now $1.40 in a 2:1 ratio. Given that there’s a month left, a $5 move either way would work out very nicely!

Don’t forget to roll DIA longs if you have them! – same collar concept.

Posted June 21, 2007 at 10:25 am | Permalink (Edit)


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Thursday Wrap-Up

Wow – a SOX rally!

Just what we always wanted! 

I wish I could get really and truly excited but I just don't see any real good reason for the sudden surge in SOX.   I really, really, REALLY want to forget my worries and enjoy the party but I'm just not drunk enough yet so the music still seems too loud and I keep looking out the window to see if the cops are coming and I'm worried someone is going to fall down and break something valuable in the living room.

The energy sector retraced about 2/3 of yesterday's losses and that's never a good reason to rally.  Neither is a sharp jump in the 10-year, back to 5.16%, filling the gap from last week and forming up for a possibly bullish break-out to last June's highs of 5.25% (it spiked at 5.32% last week when the Dow bottomed out at 13,275).  Trader Mike is calling today's action a "technical bounce" and I have to agree – there just wasn't much meat to it:

I said this morning it was all about the S&P and it was.  We held fast through the ups and downs as we waited for 1,520 to be broken but it turned out to be a weak break that came later in the day and we finished at 1,522, still 14 points below yesterday's open and just 9 points above yesterdays close.  45% is a nice start, but it's just a start and I maintain my 1,540 or BUST prediction for the week so anything less than an 18-point S&P gain tomorrow will have me going into the weekend with a bearish stance.

Today was another day where pretty much nothing worked, very annoying after yesterday when pretty much everything worked but at least today the markets were up and down often enough that we got to exit pretty much where we came in.

I made a very good bottom call at 10:17 to roll the DIA calls, which were up .50 by the end of day but also needed to be covered into the close (very fickle).   

The best news of the day was a better than expected Philly Fed report, the last bit of…
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Thoughtful Thursday Morning

This will be a good day to take a breath.

We don't want to get all bearish just because the markets gave back 150 of the 1,500 points it has gained since March 13th.  Another 150 points will only put us in a normal pullback and the 50 dma is 13,300 anyway so I'm not even looking for things to short until we break through there.  Below that we may have fun all the way to 12,500 but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Hong Kong is up 270 points this morning and the Shanghai Composite B-shares (the ones owned by foreigners) are down 2.25% while the A-shares (the ones reported by CNBC and the WSJ) are up 1.2%.  Our President has advice for CNBC viewers and Journal readers today.

The Nikkei was fairly flat with steel and trading companies leading the market there as they did in Hong Kong but the BOJ reported that corporate sentiment over there is growing more pessimistic as it seems inevitable that the BOJ will have to raise rates in the fallA Finance Ministry official said the downturn was likely due to more-pessimistic sentiment from auto and machinery makers hit by higher costs for metals such as steel and copper. The reading for large manufacturers went to minus 2.2 from 0.1 in the first quarter. The companies surveyed, however, expected the mood to brighten in the coming two quarters.

Europe is flying down as bond yields climbed, causing GS to downgrade rate sensitive stocks over there like NOK and LR (funny how they are silent on this side of the ocean – so far).  We have our own rate worried as there was a fresh upsurge yesterday but we are nowhere near last weeks levels – so far.  It's Philly Fed day so we'll see how depressing the picture is over there but Barry Ritholtz points to "Agflation" as a brand new negative indicator:

"As we noted this past weekend, the prices for commodities in general, and agricultural commodities in particular, had reached all sorts of highs: Wheat prices hit 11-year high; Oil Rises to Nine-Month High; Copper Gained; Gold, Silver Rise; Corn, Soybeans Rise; Cotton Extends Rally
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Always an Option – Newsletter Sample

Hi everyone,

We’ve been working really hard on getting the newsletter together, and we’re presenting our first sample issue here.  This is exclusively for members, so please don’t  distribute it.  The newsletter is in Adobe PDF format; if you can’t open the file you’ll need to grab the reader here.

Download Always an Option 1:1

The newsletter features picks and trade updates from Phil, an energy report from Zman, an educational article from OptionSage, technical analysis picks from HappyTrading, and an iron condor experiment from me.

We’re very keen to get feedback and criticism, so please let us know what you like and dislike and if you have ideas for future improvements.  You can leave comments here or email them directly.

Thanks,
Jared





Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 20, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink (Edit)

You guys can all laugh later but I’m doing a mon back on PTR $145 puts at $2.55! XXX

Posted June 20, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

FXI no, that was on the gamble that the HSI would tank. The Shanghai took a 2% hit but not the FXI basket. FMCN doing quite well though! Best for FXI is is to roll up if you don’t believe in the rally (I don’t) so I’m selling now and buying back a higher bracket (whatever I can afford) when it stops going up.

Posted June 20, 2007 at 9:55 am | Permalink (Edit)

I’m very serious about stopping out – I don’t care what it is but anything showing signs of weakness is getting chopped. XXX

RIMM – I’m short so no long entry from me! Of course I’m out of the puts I sold for overnight protection. XXX

Posted June 20, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink (Edit)

FXI had trouble at $128

GLW – not unless I get a compelling reason, tempting though it may be but I’m smelling that kind of smell when someone touches the grill – could be a bad burn coming for the market!

PTR – well if you want to set a stop for a day trade then 30-40% for 1/2 is best but maybe set a $2.15 back stop as that would likely be a strong break over $150.

Posted June 20, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink (Edit)

CRS – good call Bryan, looks like a breakout! Thinly traded $140s are $2.23, make a nice mo play with a .25 tstop. XXX

Posted June 20, 2007 at 10:42 am | Permalink (Edit)

That had to be the most bearish possible inventory report thay could have had. It is stunning that these oil companies can even support themselves here!

Posted June 20, 2007 at 10:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

ICE – very good for…
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Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Obviously, we had a great day.

The drop was just what we expected and was great for our virtual portfolios, which were pretty bearsih with very heavy positions in DIA puts, as well as the Jun $137 calls, which were used to offset our bullishly balanced Aug $138 calls.  In the morning, we stand ready to stop out of the June $137s, now .30 either on a reverse, where we will tighten up our calls or to roll down the June $136s should the market continue lower.

The bottom line is that  we take these protective puts generally to ride out the dips and, so far, this was a dip and nothing more.  Still it was a good excuse to move our weak positions to cash (great call by me, pat pat) and now we have to see which way the next wave is going to break before we get back on our board.

There is a tremendous effort being made by the press to blame BSC for the entirety of the sell-off.  Again, this is why I started keeping a blog of my market thoughts a couple of years ago, SO I COULD KEEP TRACK OF THE BS!  We identified this problem last Thursday so, either I’m 6 days smarter than Criminal Narrators who usually Boost Crude but also pump the market when their corporate masters yank their chain and the rest of the market OR they are simply full of it and just latching on to a scapegoat in order to deflect your attention from the real problems that beset the market..

Despite the fact that I’m 144 hours ahead of the World’s leading financial network I don’t let it go to my head.  I expected a drop and we got a drop but this isn’t a correction until we have follow through so we are back to a flexible, near neutral stance but ready to pull protects off either side as needed.  We got our drop in oil, which I have been saying could SAVE the markets (this is one of the reasons we short oil in a bullish virtual portfolio) but this too needs to give us follow through and we were 1/2 out of our oil puts as they bottomed this afternoon.

We had a fantastic series of good day trades today, just playing like fools in the rain:

  • Our morning call of selling


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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