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Hemp Boca Portfolio Review – 9-17-2019

OK, so let's see if I can actually bring myself to shut down the portfolios.  We'll start with the Hemp Boca Portfolio as it's small and I should go on the show this afternoon (haven't decided yet).  

Hemp Boca Portfolio Review:  This portfolio is not as constrained as Money Talk as there's a show every Tuesday and I can go on when I want (PSW Investments owns 20% of Hemp Boca).  We started back on May 21st so it's 4 months old and we're up 8.2% but we were down about 20% at one point (same positions) so I'm not sure I want to risk Q4 in such a small and new portfolio.

The question is, as it will be with EVERY position in EVERY portfolio this month – do we, right now, want to be in this position if the market drops 20%?

  • IMAX – Worst case is owning IMAX for $20 and I'm generally fine with that but you have to keep in mind it's a $50,000 portfolio with $100,000 in ordinary buying power (we're assuming not IB as those guys are crazy!).  It's a conservative position that's in the money and we should have good support at $21 and $20.50 held on the last dip so hard to kill – especially as I expect Q4 to be huge box office for IMAX.  Max possible on the spread is $4,000 and now net $2,325 so $1,675 (72%) left to gain by Jan seems like


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Hemp Boca Portfolio Review – 08-20-19

Hemp Boca Portfolio Review:  $43,205 is down $6,795 (13.6%) since we started so not off to a good start but that's why we scale into positions.  The market sell-off has given us some good opportunities to add to our current positions as well as pick up new ones but we don't want to deploy too much cash until we see the positions we have begin to stabilize.

  • IMAX – We're about even on this one and $21 is our goal so, if all goes well, this trade will pay us $4,000 but the current net is only $1,450 so $2,550 (175%) left to gain if IMAX can hold $21 through Jan 17th – not bad!  

  • M – Macy's fell very much out of favor along with the rest of the retail sector but we like them as a real estate play.  I'm still happy with the $23 target – even though it now seems far away but we do have 16 months to get there.  For the moment, let's roll the 15 2021 $20 calls at $1.15 ($1,725) to the $15 calls at $2.65 ($3,975) so we're spending net $2,250 to roll $7,500 lower


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Monday Market Mania – Trade Talks and Shutdowns

Image result for no deal animated gifWell, we're still closed.

Today is, officially, the first day Government workers will actually not get paid.  Already we've seen TSA workers have sick-outs for protest and things are going to get much worse as Trump's Saturday and Sunday meetings with the new Congressional Leaders resulted in NO DEAL as Trump maintains his "wall or nothing" stance.  

Meanwhile, Trump has said he is going to declare a State of Emergency in order to fund the wall but he's already lost that court case by announcing that he's going to make up an emergency just to fund a wall – what an idiot!  I hope you enjoyed Friday's December Jobs number because, as of this morning, 420,000 people are working without pay and 380,000 people have been furloghed – a nice way of saying temporarily laid off.  

Trump has said he won’t sign any bill funding the government that doesn’t include $5.7Bn in border-wall funding that was part of a measure signed by the GOP-controlled House in December which THEY couldn't pass then, before Democrats took over the chamber. Two Democratic aides said Sunday that an afternoon meeting was delayed by 45 minutes because Republicans weren’t ready with documents to explain why that $5.7Bn amount was needed for the wall.  Keep in mind this is after two full years of sayinging they needed a wall.

The much bigger deal this week is the resumption of trade negotiations with China and we can expect a rumor-driven market until something official is announced, which could be a few MONTHS – if at all.  As you can see, Trump was tweeting out great progress on Dec 14th but that same day, as soon as China said they had no idea what he was talking about, the markets began their second 10% leg down – so be very careful trusting the President – not that you should need a warning about that by now….

We have 9 Fed speakers this week and the release of the last meeting's FOMC Minutes on Wednesday but not all that much data as the Government Shutdown is pushing back a lot of reports so we'll be flying fairly blind into earnings, which are…
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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – October 24, 2018

Speaking of trading, I am scheduled to be on BNN's Money Talk tonight at 7:30 which means it's time to adjust our Money Talk Portfolio.  We did a review last Thursday and the Portfolio was at $97,037 with the S&P at 2,802 and, as of yesterday's close, we had dropped $1,394 to $95,645 but that's still up $45,645 (91.3%) for the year so not terrible but it lets us know we need to do a bit more to lock in the gains (ie. more hedges).  

  • ALK – A short put we are confident in, should gain another $3,275 at maturity.  
  • SQQQ – A good hedge that's $6,760 in the money but only showing net $3,450 out of a $10,000 potential.  Hopefully we lose the $3,450 because the market does well as it's simply insurance and not a bet.  
  • ABX – A long-term bet on gold that pays up to $12,500 and is currently on track at net $2,225 so good for a new trade with another $10,275 (460%) left to gain at $15.  



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The PhilStockWorld.com Money Talk Portfolio – September 24, 2018

One year anniversary for the Money Talk Portfolio and we can't make any adjustments (as I only do them on the show) so here it is.  We haven't looked at it since I did the show back in July (17th) and we were at $84,300 and, since then, we've moved to $89,287 so up 78.6% for the year.  Keep in mind we went to much more CASH!!! last time as I didn't want to stay open for the summer and we have dogs like WPM, ABX, LB and GE left in the portfolio but, BECAUSE we keep plugging away and we keep selling premium – we just keep making profits!  

I would certainly encourage you to go back and read the last review and contemplate how conservatively we play this ultra low-touch (once a quarter, never in between) portfolio.  All year long we simply take off the maturing winners and add a new play each Q and, despite several very disappointing stocks – we make money anyway because we keep selling premium and we take non-greedy exits.

In fact, that $24,475 profit on short WPM calls was the short leg of a long spread but we CASHED out the long leg because $22 was the top of our expected range.  So we got more than the full expected profit on the long end and now we owe nothing to the short caller.  The new bull call spread was only set up to cover the short 50 calls, we didn't expect WPM to go that high.

All in all, I'm very happy with this portfolio – despite the restrictions. 





The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – August 20, 2018

BNN Money Talk portfolio - update 8/20/2018

We already have plenty of downside bets on our portfolios and, since Options expired on Friday, let's have a look at our hedge in the context of our public Money Talk Portfolio, which we feature on BNN's Money Talk about once a quarter.  We only make changes on the show, so it's a very low-touch portfolio and we're coming up on the one year anniversary on 9/6, as we only begin doing this one year ago but, already, the portfolio is up 86.8% from $50,000 to $93,370 as of Friday's close. 

Remember – every single trade AND adjustment was announced live, on TV, before they were made in the portfolio.  We're simply showing people how to use our Be the House – NOT the Gambler techiques and hedging strategies in real-time market situations:

We cashed out a lot of winners in July as I was too nervous about the summer markets to leave what were, as the time, $34,300 worth of gains on the table and we can't make any adjustments until the next time I'm on the show in September – so better safe than sorry…  We had $34,490 in cash at the time and, as you can see, we raised our cash holdings to $85,740 (91.8% of the portfolio's value) but we still managed to gain another $9,070 from our remaining positions in the past 30 days.  You do not need to keep a lot of cash in the market to make great gains if you know how to properly apply leverage! 

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Russians hacked into America’s electric grid. Here’s why securing it is hard.

 

Russians hacked into America's electric grid. Here's why securing it is hard.

File 20180410 566 1v4l0o8.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Hackers can interfere with everyday efforts to keep the lights on. pan denim/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Theodore J. Kury, University of Florida

Hackers taking down the U.S. electricity grid may sound like a plot ripped from a Bruce Willis action movie, but the Department of Homeland Security has recently disclosed new details about the extent to which Russia has infiltrated “critical infrastructure” like American power plants, water facilities and gas pipelines.

This hacking is similar to the 2015 and 2016 attacks on Ukraine’s grid. While DHS has raised the number of the Russian utility-hacking incidents it detected from dozens to hundreds, it still maintains that this infiltration has not risen beyond scouting mode. Russia denies having any role in the hacking, yet the specter of Russian sabotage in the U.S. now seems more realistic than it used to.

Clearly, there’s no time to waste in shoring up the grid’s security. Yet getting that done is not easy, as I’ve learned through my research regarding efforts in to stave off outages in hurricane-prone Florida.

 

A catch-22

There is no way to completely protect the grid. Even if that were possible, utilities tend to adopt new and better security procedures after mishaps, boosting the chance that some attacks will succeed.

Regulation at the state and federal levels makes it hard for utilities and regulators to work together to get this job done.

Utilities can charge their customers only what it takes for them to cover reasonable expenses. Regulators must approve their rates through a process that needs to be open to public scrutiny.

Say, for example, a power company is building a substation. The utility would disclose what it spent on construction, prove that it picked its contractors…
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Hot Chart: Buyback Season Approaches

 

Hot Chart: Buyback Season Approaches

Courtesy of 

I haven’t really seen anything like the chart below, which comes to us via Savita Subramanian’s group at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. They’re showing the seasonality of stock buybacks broken down by weeks of the year. Apparently, we’re headed into the thick of buyback season, and this past week was way above trend…

Buybacks by our corporate clients last week were the sixth largest in our data history since 2008. In particular, Tech companies’ buybacks were the fourth-largest in our data history.

In a reversal to recent trends, buybacks in Financials and Health Care stocks picked up last week. Financials saw the second-biggest buybacks (after Tech) by our corporate clients.

Josh here – what’s interesting to me is that the pace of buybacks historically spikes twice in the average year, in what looks like the 8th week (end of Feb) and then around the 34th week. If last week’s kickoff to the season was indicative of what the rest of the summer will look like, it’s not hard to understand why we’d be making new record highs soon.

By the way, regardless of what happens with buybacks this summer, I think it’s clear that, thanks to the tax cut, 2018 is going to be a year to remember. Here’s the post-crisis history of buybacks on a 4-week rolling average from the same report:

Source:

Here come the buybacks
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – July 24th, 2018





The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio – June 17, 2018 update

Money Talk Portfolio Review:   I am doing the show tomorrow so I have to put this together first.  Sadly, we dropped a lot since our June 14th review, when we were at $92,727 (85.5%) but now down to $84,300 (68.6%), mostly due to LB's pullback and our inability to roll SQQQ like we did in the STP/OOP.  Nonetheless, up 68.6% since Sept doesn't suck and now we can make some adjustments! 

I'm a bit concerned about the rest of the summer so we're going to be cautious – especially with these gains to lock in. 

  • ALK – I'm very confident in the next $51.80 entry so no change here.  Earnings are 7/26 so we'll watch those carefully but expectations are low (about $1.65) and they made $2.51 last Q2, so I'm only worried about guidance.  Anticipate making $3,725 more on this one.
  • IMAX – Lots of blockbusters ahead should be good for them but this spread is well in the money and can be cashed out for $8.80/4.10 for net $4.70 ($9,400) out of a possible $5 so it's not worth the risk as we can't make interim adjustments so we'll take the profit off the table.  
  • SQQQ – We still need a hedge and


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The PhilStockWorld.com BNN Money Talk Portfolio – September 6, 2017

The PhilStockWorld.com MoneyTalk Portfolio

We will be tracking our trade ideas in a the Money Talk Portfolio which we're starting with $50,000, giving us $100,000 in ordinary margin to play with.  We will update it monthly and post a link for our viewers to follow and we'll do live progress reports along the way.

Sept. 6, 2017 – (see original portfolio discussion here

Sept. 20th, 2017 Update:

November 9th, 2017 – Making great progress and discussed in today's Report:

To become a PhilStockWorld member and gain access to our other virtual portfolios sign up today

December 12th, 2017 – Chugging right along.  PSW Members went to CASH!!! into the holidays on our portfolios, this is the only open one left (see today's post for comments):

  • I'm certainly not worried about Apple (AAPL), which is a 3-time Stock of the Year champion.  Though the spread is already up $7,400 (113%) at $13,500 after just 3 months, the goal is to get back $30,000 so this humble trade is still good for another $16,500 (122%) of additional gains if AAPL is good enough to hold $165 for the year.  
  • IMAX should do very well this month with Star Wars out on Friday so the force should be strong for


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Phil's Favorites

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

 

So You Wanna Be a Stock Picker

Courtesy of 

The stock market has been a treacherous place for the last few months. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the indexes.

I wrote this opening salvo earlier in the week when the S&P 500 was hovering near all-time highs. This morning, due to a new variant in South Africa, stocks are selling off sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the people’s index, is down over 1,000 points, sitting 5% below the all-time highs from earlier this month.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen these names on the leader and laggard board and I was hoping to never...



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Zero Hedge

"The Omicron Variant" - Magic Pills, Or Solving The Africa Problem?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Yesterday the WHO labelled the sars-cov-2 variant B.1.1.529 as a “variant of concern” and officially named it “Omicron”.

This was as entirely predictable as it is completely meaningless. The “variants” are just tools to stretch the story out and keep people on their toes.

...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far

 

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far Scientists find variants by sequencing samples from people that have tested positive for the virus. Lightspring/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Prof. Wolfgang Preiser, Stellenbosch University; Cathrine Scheepers, University of the Witwatersrand; Jinal Bhiman, National Institute for Communicable Diseases; ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.