8.3 C
New York
Thursday, March 28, 2024

Weekly Wrap-Up

So we finished the week up about 50 points on the Dow but the S&P was flat and the Nasdaq about the same.

It was a tough way to get there but we've been looking for consolidation with a rotation out of financials and energy and, to some extent, that's what we got but a stampede out of financials on fear of a collapse wasn't exactly the healthy rotation we were looking for.  The week started with an FBI investigation of CFC and 15 other lenders for securities fraud and Barrons came out against FRE last weekend (this weekend it's BSC of course) and Fitch downgraded 8 banks.  The fact that the XLF finished the week down just 2% is pretty amazing!

We made fantastic progress in our virtual portfolios as we were lucky enough to be in a buying mood on Monday, as we discussed in last week's wrap-up and on Monday morning I noted "can sentiment really get any worse?"  We decided to move into more Long-Term Virtual Portfolio style plays and what a great week for that it was as our LTP gained 10% on the week, very much in line with AAPL 2010 $100s at 44.12 we picked that morning (now $48.15).  I cannot emphasize enough how well the LTP strategy can protect you in uncertain times like this, as I explained in Monday's post, it's a great way to stay in the game while you wait for the market to turn.

Monday evening both Sage and I coincidentally wrote articles about the evils of commodity infation although, it wasn't really a coincidence as it should be the thing that bothers investors most about the economy.  Runaway commodity inflation is the one thing that undermines my bullish premise of global growth as NO economy is doing well enough to pay $150 a barrel for oil.

Tuesday the Fed finally stepped in (we had been waiting for this shoe to drop since last week) and we had a nice 400-poiint day but we decided not to get too excited about it without some follow-through.  We made a terrible play on SIGM which we rolled down to the Jan $25s at a 32% loss but sticking with BA the same day is starting to make up for it.  My Tuesday eveing advice was: " Let’s not go overboard here, we’re still going to keep our fingers on the sell button and take profits off the table.  If this is a real rally, we have 1,000 points to go so we won’t miss much by getting to cash once in a while."

That was our week right right there, maintaining a cautious attitude as we gained another 100 points on Wednesday morning is what gave us a terrific week.  AET was our second public LTP play that payed off big this week and our plan to dump out of our March calls was right on the money as we finally learned to act on the pattern of Wednesday giving us the week's high – the reasons may change but the chart remains essentially the same each week.

It was "Whiplash Wednesday" as the markets took a nasty turn but we hit it on the button and made some very nice day trades for some quick cash.  Thursday morning was the usual thump but, knowing Paulson was coming on and expecting a boost, we took out the callers and recovered on the run-up, giving us another nice boost!

You can make fantastic money trading a range-bound market like this, it's simply a question of fininding the right stocks to trade as they peak and trough and managing our positions.  We went to more day-trading to take advantage of this a few weeks ago and the LTP strategy let's you buy and sell callers, but with the buffer of having the long calls to cover you if they get away.

As I said on Thursday night, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good and I think everyone in the small virtual portfolios realizes how lucky we were with Thurdsay's turn of events that allowed us to escape from our key play on the Russell with a proffit.  There was no way we could have predicted Friday's news but having the good discipline to be happy to get even saved us from going back to square on on Friday morning, when the Bear (Stearns) hit the fan.

My comment from Thursday's Wrap-Up was: "While I still think we can expect further action from the Plunge Protection Team ahead of the weekend, I was concerned that Paulson’s morning conference caused 300 points of short covering and our failure to retake yesterday’s highs turned me a bit bearish as we faced the last 90 minutes of trading.'

We hoped for follow-through on Friday morning but, as I often say to members, hope is not a strategy but I was willing to put my foot down at 2:30 and lighten up on our covers, leaving us with a lot of open calls and some pretty large index puts as a general cover into the weekend.  My overriding logic is that if we have a bottom, then we'll be glad to let the positions run and, if we don't, then cash will once again be king.

It was, on the whole, a really good week and we closed 99 positions with a 51% average gain (as it was our goal to buy out callers we were 50% ahead on, this is no surprise) and we finished the week still back heavily in cash as this remains NOT a market you want to be leaving money in.  Cash gains were, as usual, dominated by our index puts but Google finally stepped off the sidelines and contributed for the first time in quite a while.

Index puts and good timing put our Short-Term Virtual Portfolio up 18% for the week and we are left with 20 uncovered longs, mainly losers along with 10 covered calls and 6 puts.  We are still over 80% cash and looking for a reason to put some money to work but that reason would have to be a "rally" that lasts more than 36 hours.

Activity in the STP was very low as I have shifted my attention to our new Day Trading Virtual Portfolio and and we've been very busy there in our second week, pulling in a spectacular 51% gain over 5 days coming pretty much entirely from our DIA puts, GOOG calls and Thursday's Russell calls, which gaiined 167% in 3 hours – not bad for a day's work!  Let's keep in mind that last week we were barely even so we took a lot of early exits but, now that we have more cash ($122,930) than the $100K we staked the virtual portfolio with, I'm willing to play a little looser than I was last week when we were in danger of going negative on a bad play. 

The Long-Term Virtual Portfolio is, of course, all about patience and we are back in good stead with a 10% gain on the week that brings us back to 51% for the year-to-date.  Much the same as last week, we took a chance and went fairly uncovered into the weekend (but with lot's of DIA puts in the STP to cover) with 29 open calls and just 13 covered calls (some of which are 1/2 covers of our open positions).  We did a full LTP review on Monday so it's a great opportunity for members to go back and review how the plan for the week went (of course, that was very early and there are still moves to trigger next week).

Our $10,000 Virtual Portfolio is almost back to $10,000 – $9,873 to be exact and I am thrilled as we are mainly (1 cover left) out of our Russell play and sitting with $5,423 in cash.  This virtual portfolio had a dreadful start and I am grateful we get a chance to make some new plays while leaving in some comfortable covered plays.

The $25,000 Virtual Portfolio was just a bit more flexible and our extra cash allowed us to take out all the Russell callers at the bottom and the comeback of CROX made our week as we headed back to $28,657, a spectacular 40% gain on the week (and it got worse before it got better!).  We have $15,332 in cash so we're pretty much ready for anything next week but with expiration day on Thursday, we are most likely going to sit tight and manage the 5 positions we have.

The Stocks Virtual Portfolio went nowhere but nowhere is good as we're up 32% for the year and 2/3 in cash.  We were hard pressed to find anything we really loved in this market and our plays on ABK and DAL were really just taking advantage of good front-month premiums more so than out of love of the stocks.

Complext Spreads were the start of the week with a solid 55% gain over last week although we took a big chance leaving Google uncovered into the weekend (Apple is 1/2 covered) but, then again, this is the high-risk Google and Apple virtual portfolio so we get what we play for.  Much of the cash gain came from crushing the hopes and dreams of our short-term GOOG callers as no good rally went unpunished and, after our nice $25 run on Tuesday, we were rewarded for being cautious with a $20 dip late Wednesday to Thursday and again from Thursday's close to Friday when we decided to "go fo it."

All in all, it was a very exciting week, it's a fantastic market to watch mainly from the sidelines but our plays are turning more profitable so the tempation is getting stronger to put a little more money to work, most likely after we get a good look at the holiday weekend.

Stock

Description

Type

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

$RUT 20 Mar 2008 680.00 $RUT CALL (RUYCP) LC  $  13,020 3/14  $  15,380 3/14  $     2,360 18%
$RUT 3 Mar 2008 700.00 $RUT CALL (RUTCT) LC  $      300 3/11  $    1,050 3/13  $        750 250%
$RUT 5 Mar 2008 670.00 $RUT CALL (RUYCN) SC  $    3,310 3/7  $    6,240 3/13  $     2,930 89%
$RUT 5 Mar 2008 660.00 $RUT CALL (RUYCL) LC  $    8,750 3/7  $  10,500 3/13  $     1,750 20%
$RUT 5 Mar 2008 700.00 $RUT CALL (RUTCT) SC  $    1,660 2/20  $    1,750 3/13  $         90 5%
$RUT 20 Mar 2008 680.00 $RUT CALL (RUYCP) LC  $    6,910 3/13  $  18,490 3/13  $   11,580 168%
$RUT 3 Mar 2008 720.00 $RUT CALL (RUTCD) LC  $    4,825 2/20  $        95 3/11  $    (4,730) -98%
$VIX 80 Mar 2008 27.50 $VIX PUT (VIXOY) LP  $  17,610 2/5  $  19,990 3/12  $     2,380 14%
AAPL 20 Mar 2008 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVCE) SC  $  10,510 3/3  $  17,390 3/14  $     6,880 66%
AAPL 60 Mar 2008 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVCE) SC  $  18,010 3/13  $  29,990 3/13  $   11,980 67%
AAPL 20 Mar 2008 125.00 AAPL CALL (APVCE) LC  $    4,010 3/10  $    4,290 3/12  $        280 7%
AAPL 30 Mar 2008 120.00 AAPL CALL (QAACD) SC  $  15,010 3/10  $  16,490 3/11  $     1,480 10%
AAPL 20 Mar 2008 130.00 AAPL CALL (QAACD) LC  $  12,150 3/6  $  11,490 3/10  $       (660) -5%
AIG 25 Mar 2008 45.00 AIG CALL (AIGCI) SC  $    1,885 3/8  $    6,865 3/10  $     4,980 264%
AXP 40 Mar 2008 42.50 AXP CALL (AXPCV) SC  $    2,610 3/5  $    7,190 3/10  $     4,580 176%
BA 60 Mar 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BACO) LC  $    5,710 3/13  $    2,390 3/13  $    (3,320) -58%
BA 20 Mar 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BACO) SC  $    1,110 3/11  $    2,390 3/13  $     1,280 115%
BA 10 Mar 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BACO) SC  $      560 3/12  $       890 3/13  $        330 59%
BA 60 Mar 2008 75.00 BA CALL (BACO) SC  $    4,510 3/11  $  13,190 3/11  $     8,680 193%
BA 40 Mar 2008 80.00 BA CALL (BACP) SC  $    1,610 3/7  $    7,590 3/10  $     5,980 371%
BA 40 Mar 2008 80.00 BA CALL (BACP) SC  $    1,610 3/5  $    7,790 3/10  $     6,180 384%
BA 6 Apr 2008 80.00 BA CALL (BADP) LC  $    2,350 3/5  $       980 3/10  $    (1,370) -58%
BA 10 Apr 2008 80.00 BA CALL (BADP) LC  $    3,810 3/4  $    1,640 3/10  $    (2,170) -57%
BG 20 Mar 2008 95.00 BG CALL (BGCS) SC  $    1,610 3/13  $    6,190 3/13  $     4,580 285%
BIDU 30 Apr 2008 270.00 BIDU PUT (BDUPW) LP  $  60,010 3/13  $  83,990 3/13  $   23,980 40%
BIDU 10 Jun 2008 280.00 BIDU CALL (BDUFX) LC  $  34,010 2/15  $  35,990 3/12  $     1,980 6%
BIDU 10 Mar 2008 250.00 BIDU CALL (BDUCJ) SC  $  10,010 3/10  $  10,690 3/11  $        680 7%
BIIB 30 Mar 2008 60.00 BIIB CALL (IHDCL) SC  $      760 3/7  $    5,990 3/11  $     5,230 688%
BMY 15 Mar 2008 22.50 BMY CALL (BMYCX) SC  $      250 2/19  $    2,030 3/10  $     1,780 712%
BSC 10 Mar 2008 35.00 BSC CALL (BVDCG) LC  $    4,510 3/14  $    6,590 3/14  $     2,080 46%
BSC 100 Apr 2008 70.00 BSC CALL (BVDDN) LC  $  24,310 3/11  $  42,990 3/12  $   18,680 77%
BSC 20 Apr 2008 80.00 BSC CALL (BVDDN) LC  $  10,410 2/1  $    9,990 3/11  $       (420) -4%
BX 3000 Blackstone Group LP (The) (BX) LS  $  46,510 2/25  $  49,940 3/13  $     3,430 7%
BX 30 Mar 2008 15.00 BX CALL (BXCC) SC  $    1,660 2/25  $    4,490 3/10  $     2,830 171%
C 50 Mar 2008 20.00 C CALL (CCD) SC  $    4,110 3/16  $    7,490 3/14  $     3,380 82%
C 80 Mar 2008 22.50 C CALL (CCA) SC  $    1,210 3/13  $    5,190 3/13  $     3,980 329%
C 50 Mar 2008 22.50 C CALL (CCA) LC  $    4,260 3/5  $    3,990 3/12  $       (270) -6%
CAT 20 Mar 2008 70.00 CAT CALL (CATCN) SC  $    2,310 2/19  $    5,190 3/10  $     2,880 125%
CCJ 10 Mar 2008 40.00 CCJ CALL (CCJCH) SC  $      110 3/7  $    1,090 3/10  $        980 891%
CME 5 Mar 2008 500.00 CME CALL (CNMCT) SC  $    3,510 3/13  $    8,490 3/13  $     4,980 142%
COH 10 Mar 2008 30.00 COH CALL (COHCF) SC  $      210 2/19  $    2,360 3/10  $     2,150 1024%
CROX 7 Mar 2008 20.00 CROX CALL (CZLCD) SC  $      430 3/5  $    1,327 3/10  $        897 209%
DIA 300 Apr 2008 120.00 DIA PUT (DAWPP) LP  $  90,010 3/13  $139,190 3/14  $   49,180 55%
DIA 60 Apr 2008 120.00 DIA PUT (DAWPP) LP  $  22,210 3/6  $  28,490 3/14  $     6,280 28%
DIA 300 Apr 2008 120.00 DIA PUT (DAWPP) LP  $  87,610 3/6  $143,990 3/13  $   56,380 64%
DIA 100 Apr 2008 123.00 DIA PUT (DAWPS) LP  $  37,230 3/13  $  59,990 3/13  $   22,760 61%
DIA 200 Apr 2008 122.00 DIA PUT (DAWPR) LP  $  78,010 3/5  $  94,990 3/11  $   16,980 22%
DIA 300 Mar 2008 118.00 DIA PUT (DAWON) SP  $  37,510 3/11  $  74,990 3/11  $   37,480 100%
DIA 150 Mar 2008 115.00 DIA PUT (DIAOK) LP  $  19,810 3/10  $    9,290 3/11  $  (10,520) -53%
DIA 60 Mar 2008 120.00 DIA PUT (DAWOP) SP  $    7,220 3/7  $  16,780 3/11  $     9,560 132%
DNDN 50 Mar 2008 7.50 DNDN CALL (UKOCU) LC  $      660 2/22  $       340 3/12  $       (320) -49%
DRYS 20 Mar 2008 65.00 DRYS CALL (DQRCM) SC  $    6,010 3/11  $    7,390 3/11  $     1,380 23%
FRE 20 Mar 2008 17.50 FRE CALL (FRECW) LC  $    6,610 3/7  $    3,390 3/10  $    (3,220) -49%
FXI 30 Mar 2008 140.00 FXI CALL (FAHCH) LC  $  10,090 3/13  $    5,390 3/14  $    (4,700) -47%
GFI 2000 Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) LS  $  28,370 2/27  $  33,170 3/14  $     4,800 17%
GFI 20 Mar 2008 15.00 GFI CALL (GFICC) SC  $    1,510 2/27  $       990 3/11  $       (520) -34%
GOOG 60 Mar 2008 440.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCH) SC  $  20,110 3/13  $  89,990 3/14  $   69,880 348%
GOOG 40 Mar 2008 440.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCH) LC  $  28,490 3/13  $  49,990 3/13  $   21,500 76%
GOOG 5 Mar 2008 440.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCH) SC  $    5,010 3/13  $    7,490 3/12  $     2,480 50%
GOOG 20 Mar 2008 430.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCF) SC  $  20,010 3/10  $  24,990 3/11  $     4,980 25%
GOOG 30 Mar 2008 430.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCF) SC  $  30,010 3/10  $  37,490 3/11  $     7,480 25%
GOOG 10 Mar 2008 420.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCD) LC  $  14,260 3/10  $  17,990 3/11  $     3,730 26%
GOOG 30 Mar 2008 450.00 GOOG CALL (GOPCJ) SC  $  15,010 3/8  $  44,990 3/10  $   29,980 200%
GS 10 Mar 2008 165.00 GS CALL (GPYCM) LC  $    4,510 3/13  $    6,290 3/13  $     1,780 40%
GS 10 Mar 2008 170.00 GS CALL (GPYCN) LC  $    2,820 3/10  $    4,980 3/12  $     2,160 77%
GS 5 Mar 2008 160.00 GS PUT (GPYOL) SP  $    1,510 3/10  $    4,990 3/12  $     3,480 231%
GS 10 Mar 2008 160.00 GS CALL (GPYCL) SC  $    5,710 3/11  $    8,590 3/11  $     2,880 50%
GS 5 Mar 2008 150.00 GS PUT (GPYOJ) LP  $    1,820 3/10  $    2,490 3/10  $        670 37%
HOV 60 Mar 2008 10.00 HOV CALL (HOVCB) SC  $    1,510 3/3  $    9,590 3/10  $     8,080 535%
HUM 10 Apr 2008 55.00 HUM CALL (HUMDK) LC  $      760 3/11  $       240 3/12  $       (520) -68%
HUM 20 Apr 2008 55.00 HUM CALL (HUMDK) LC  $    1,510 3/11  $       490 3/12  $    (1,020) -68%
IBM 15 Mar 2008 115.00 IBM CALL (IBMCC) SC  $    1,560 3/3  $    5,380 3/13  $     3,820 245%
INFY 20 Mar 2008 40.00 INFY CALL (IUNCH) SC  $      310 3/7  $    1,990 3/10  $     1,680 542%
INTC 60 Mar 2008 20.00 INTC CALL (NQCD) SC  $    3,210 2/21  $    7,190 3/11  $     3,980 124%
ISRG 20 Mar 2008 260.00 ISRG CALL (AXVCX) SC  $  26,010 3/11  $  23,990 3/13  $    (2,020) -8%
LVS 25 Mar 2008 80.00 LVS CALL (LVSCP) SC  $    2,510 3/13  $    5,440 3/13  $     2,930 117%
MCD 40 Mar 2008 55.00 MCD CALL (MCDCK) SC  $    1,810 3/11  $    3,990 3/13  $     2,180 120%
MCD 25 Apr 2008 52.50 MCD CALL (MCDDX) LC  $    5,155 3/7  $    8,240 3/10  $     3,085 60%
MSFT 30 Mar 2008 27.50 MSFT PUT (MSQOY) SP  $      160 2/11  $    2,990 3/12  $     2,830 1769%
NEM 50 Mar 2008 50.00 NEM CALL (NEMCJ) SC  $    6,010 3/8  $  12,490 3/10  $     6,480 108%
NYX 10 Mar 2008 60.00 NYX CALL (NYXCL) SC  $    1,410 3/10  $    1,240 3/11  $       (170) -12%
PEP 20 Mar 2008 70.00 PEP CALL (PEPCN) SC  $    1,410 3/3  $    2,990 3/10  $     1,580 112%
QID 20 Mar 2008 51.00 QID CALL (QIDCY) LC  $    5,210 3/13  $  10,390 3/13  $     5,180 99%
QID 30 Mar 2008 55.00 QID PUT (QIDOC) LP  $    5,370 3/7  $  10,470 3/12  $     5,100 95%
QID 100 Mar 2008 55.00 QID CALL (QIDCC) LC  $  26,010 3/10  $  34,990 3/10  $     8,980 35%
SHLD 30 Mar 2008 95.00 SHLD CALL (KTQCS) LC  $    6,610 3/13  $    2,990 3/13  $    (3,620) -55%
SHLD 15 Mar 2008 95.00 SHLD CALL (KTQCS) SC  $    1,810 2/19  $  10,190 3/11  $     8,380 463%
SNDK 40 Mar 2008 25.00 SNDK CALL (SWQCE) SC  $      210 3/3  $    3,990 3/11  $     3,780 1800%
STX 40 Mar 2008 22.50 STX CALL (STXCX) LC  $    5,410 3/8  $       590 3/13  $    (4,820) -89%
TASR 80 Mar 2008 12.50 TASR CALL (QURCV) SC  $      410 3/7  $    1,990 3/10  $     1,580 385%
TXN 20 Mar 2008 30.00 TXN CALL (TXNCF) SC  $      210 3/8  $    1,490 3/11  $     1,280 610%
USO 20 Apr 2008 83.00 USO PUT (UNAPE) LP  $    7,170 3/5  $    7,190 3/12  $         20 0%
WM 50 Mar 2008 11.00 WM CALL (WMCY) SC  $    4,260 3/11  $    5,490 3/13  $     1,230 29%
X 10 Mar 2008 110.00 X PUT (XOB) SP  $    1,010 3/13  $    3,990 3/13  $     2,980 295%
X 10 Mar 2008 105.00 X PUT (XOA) SP  $    1,010 3/10  $    4,990 3/12  $     3,980 394%
X 10 Mar 2008 105.00 X PUT (XOA) SP  $    1,510 3/11  $    4,990 3/11  $     3,480 231%
XLF 200 Mar 2008 25.00 XLF CALL (XLFCY) LC  $  11,020 3/14  $    9,980 3/14  $    (1,040) -9%
XLF 20 Mar 2008 23.00 XLF CALL (XLFCW) SC  $    2,650 3/10  $    3,630 3/13  $        980 37%
XOM 40 Mar 2008 85.00 XOM CALL (XOMCQ) LC  $    7,930 3/6  $    8,390 3/11  $        460 6%

 

 

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