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Which Way Wednesday? Fed Edition!

Fed day, party time, excellent!

Hopefully the free money party has come to an end.  Can Helicopter Ben change his evil ways or will will this groundhog continue to see a recessionary shadow and throw more money down the hole, giving us 6 more weeks (until the June meeting) of high inflation?

I ran down my expectations on key earnings in the Wrap-Up so we’ll move right along to the good stuff (and I’m way behind this morning so I’ll keep this short).  CMI came through for us, and, as predicted, FSLR had blow-out numbers and gave good guidance so we’ll ge our shorting opportunity as planned (but let’s stick with Cramer as he sticks another load of bag-holders with this one this evening!).  GRMN I was wrong on as they had a miss but profits are up 6% so we’ll stick with them and sell more calls.  GM ONLY lost $3.3Bn in the quarter against their $12Bn market cap so they are, of course, up 5% pre market.  HES had good numbers and I’m back to being glad we were too scared to short them.

NOV did well but not well enough to worry me on the June $60 puts with a penny beat on record prices.  Woe unto these companies if revenues fall off with costs at this level!  PG, SI and KFT all did well – what kind of recession is this?  TWX was not good but they are spinning off the cable unit and maybe AOL if they find a buyer so they are still flattish, which was our bet. 

Actually it turns out we’re NOT in a recession so the pessimists can say we have further to fall but, as I’ve been saying since last Summer, if we can have a $400Bn mortgage crisis and all it does is knock growth to 6%, then everything these bozos in the media are saying is wrong and there are Trillions of dollars on the wrong side of this bet and we could be heading right back to 14,000 (my prediction from 12/31 was a pullback below 12,000 and 14,500 by year’s end).  If anyone wonders how we make money, just re-read those predictions when you have the chance and think how much money anyone can make when you get a call that right!

Asia had a mild pullback and the BOJ held rates steady at 0.5% (and the Japanese have the world’s highest savings rate!).  Generally, they had the same commodity driven sell-off that we did yesterday and we love those so everything looks good over there.  Europe perked up considerably on our GDP report and GM’s bright spot was – small cars, which makes global automakers happy and should continue to worry the oil bulls.  Only 25% of the mergers in Britain last year were preceded by suspicious stock trading, which sounds awful unless you look at the shenanigans that go on ahead of 75% of our deals while our SEC gently sleeps.

Nothing really matters until the Fed this afternoon but we are muscling back to Monday’s opening level in pre-market so let’s see what sticks.

Have fun out there!

 


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  1. GM Phil.


  2. Phil, are you getting out of GRMN here, or waiting for a gap fill?


  3. Phil,
    I plan to wait until after the Fed tomorrow but assuming AAPL stays where it is and reading your posts yesterday regarding rolling up AAPL what are your thoughts on my positions. I would like to take some money off the table if I can so I can use this to reposition later if AAPL drops but it may make sense to keep it all in play. Should I roll up to the Oct 165′s and roll my callers to the May 170′s?
    12-AAPL Oct 140’s- Basis $22 now $43
    6 short May 155’s-Basis $13 now $21
    6 short May 160’s-Basis $10 now $16.5


  4. Phil,  We’re not officially in a recession, but that GDP report is terrible once you get past the headline number. Look at the details:
    http://tinyurl.com/2d5zdv

    Inventory builds were large, which accounted for much the "high" GDP number. About the only good things were the (slightly) lower core consumer price number, and export growth that is still strong (but slower than last Q). Consumer spending, durable goods spending, and non-durable goods spending all grew at a significantly slow pace. Business investment fell significantly, service spending decreased, and of course the housing sector is a disaster.
    Ugly.


  5. 8:45 *U.S. APRIL CHICAGO PURCHASERS INDEX AT 48.3 AFTER 48.2


  6. wow GOOG 570!


  7. V going mad again – going to have to roll my caller again !


  8. Phil, I didn’t get the AUO DD at .80 - Any recommendations?


  9. Phil,

    AAPL is going to fly away for our Appleflyer. The short now have more value than we paid premium for.
    Do we wait for a pullback to buy out the callers even?
    NDAQ I´m glad that I got some premium in the last days so sell. This won´t turn up.

    Thanks


  10. phil, i am feeling greedy with my goog and aapl calls. do youthink i should sell or ride till afternoon?
    thanks


  11. GRMN – fully covering with $40 callers (stop on 1/2 at $4) and rolling down longs.  XXX

    AAPL/Calch may never come down at this rate!  You really need to roll your callers up to the $175s at this point so let’s say 24 of those will cost you $5 per current contract and rolling yourself to 24 Oct $170s would cost you $5 per current contract but you owe your callers $10+ anyway so if you can do this now it could save you money later.  If not, you can roll the callers straight out to the Jun $175s which is about +$5 to you on that end making the whole move even.  You can work out a variation of this without the 2x that won’t cost too much but that’s the gist of it.  With $8 of premium collected per month, rolling to the $170s at $25 ($17 premium) with 3 months to sell is not a terrible risk, especially since your cash-out now is "just" $28K (not a bad profit) and if you get away clean with 24 Oct $175s you’re looking at $60K.


  12. PHIL…….CALM with nice bounce this am


  13. XLF got a hit. JOSB already down


  14. GDP – of course it’s terrible, we’re in a recession, but it’s the wimpiest recession ever and if commodities do ever come down for more than a day (thank goodness we sold the naked puts – other than CVX, which we will add to) that plus a change of sentiment can burn off those inventories fast.

    GRMN – note that even now you can get $2.75 for the $40s, this is how you need to react when your stock has bad news, grab the premium and think about it later, this is selling into the volatility before unrealistic callers regain their senses.  If the stock comes back, so what?  We still get + $2 in premium plus the money we got from the higher callers.  Lowering stops on 1/2 to $3 of course!  XXX


  15. AAPL- With the risk of making Film mad, AAPL hit Mark’s and my target of $178.  Sold May 165s and some of May 170′s


  16. phil
    been reading your suggestion on aapl options but don’t know what to do with mine.
    i have 2 175 june call +2 right now
    short 2 180 may call -1.5 right now
    what do you suggest i do with them?
    thanks


  17. "GDP – of course it’s terrible, we’re in a recession"  Oh, o.k., glad we agree then, hee hee.


  18. Phil – which month/strike are we rolling down our GRMN $25kp longs into?


  19. BBD – what is your take on MOS after the POT comments yesterday?


  20. Phil – I’ve need to adjust my BA position. I would like to know your opinion on my plan. I have
    16x Jan 75 @ 9.10
    -4x May75 @4.50
    -8x May85 @1.17
    May 75 are useless at this point. I plan to roll 4xMay75 to 8x Jun85 4×430 which I can pay for by rolling some of the Jan75 to Jan80 which have about 1.70 more premium.


  21. Phil:
    may USO puts are just about worthless.
    Are you going to get June puts or even July ?


  22. mck – FSLR – like I posted yesterday about MA… see how 8 min ema catches up with it… buy quickly if you’re day trading (ATM options) and look for it to get tired… this one isn’t as explosive as MA’s was, so has less momo…  will test 34 and if that don’t hold then pressure is on.


  23. BBBY  I’ve got a call calendar spread where I’m currently long the Jan ’10 30s and short the May ’30s.  Any suggestion on an adjustment since my caller has lost almost all it premium?


  24. Hi Phil, 
    Been busy with work lately and need some advice re my WMT LTP type play.
    Long Jan 09 50′s basis 7.77 now 10.70 
    May 55 caller sold for 1.68 now 3.77.
    Do you suggest a 2x June 60 and 2x jan 60 play ? Or just a Jan 50 roll to 60 and June 55 to 60? Any suggestions are greatly appreciated.


  25. FSLR – CNBC pointing out they are selling at 23x SALES.  Forget earnings, four quarters like this and they get to $200M, a PE of 120 if everything goes great for 12 months!  Puts are tempting but way too expensive.  Best for us would be a few days up here then get next Q puts and sell against them.

    AUO – I wouldn’t pay more than .80 for the DD, no point.  It might come back and don’t get too excited about anything until we see the Fed (who I am praying will pause).

    AAPLfly – we still have to wait for the Fed.  We will have to adjust but time is on our side.  GOOG callers are killing us in DTP but $575 should hold through the Fed but, after that, it’s a wildcard. 

    Lindsay – If you are not covered then you are way greedy!

    CALM on a commodity bounce only.

    XLF down on likely Fed pause, I don’t see how they justify a cut right now.

    JOSB – good, we need the break on our spread! 

    AAPL/DrLuong – Your spread is just right at this level, not a problem until Apple hits $185.  Worry more about the downside if Apple heads lower.  You can always roll to the $175 calls, which have the same premium and more protection.

    GRMN – there’s no roll in $25KP, that is just a loss if you are in May $50s naked (which I am).

    GOOG/Marek – good plan after the Fed and you are sure there will not be a pullback.  Otherwise it’s nice protection until you are ready to roll to June.  Trying to "win" every penny in lieu of protecting yourself is the biggest mistake option sellers make.


  26. Phil,
    WFR : What do you think of Jan10 65s and sell 1/2 May 65s?


  27. When my Garrmin Nuvi  broke I just started using the GPS on my blackberry
    Is widespread use of Cell  GPS gonna hurt?

    Also Opt. do you pick your target as religiously as picking your stop and assessing your R’s on the Golf course? LOL


  28. XLF could also be down because of Citigroup capital raise


  29. CMI rockin!

    USO/RMM – We cashed out naked May puts (well all May puts were naked) yesterday specifically just in case we got a bounce back like this.  Now you know why!  I’m just going to be very happy to work out of my remaining puts but I did grab XOM $90 puts again for $1 as we planned.  The XLE puts are a safer way to play XOM earnings but you can’t short oil on that GDP report  unless the Fed rallies the dollar by coming through inflation hawkish in words and actions.

    Inventory report in 5 mins of course.  Expecting +1.6M oil and -800K gasoline.  I didn’t get the distilate number.  Don’t forget they settled with just 27Mb for May delivery so the Cushing count will be 13Mb short so we could get a huge draw in crude either this week or next – that’s when I will take out my putters and roll up again.

    GOOG testing my target.


  30. "April 30 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, boosted the size of its stock offering by 50 percent to $4.5 billion, taking advantage of investor demand to bolster capital depleted by a $5.1 billion first-quarter loss.
    Today’s increase was in response to “strong demand from a broad base of investors,” Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden said in the statement."

    Yeah, investors are snapping those shares up right and left this morning, LOL


  31. VLO $50 calls at $1.50, nice mo play if we get a drawdown in gasoline over 1mb.  XXX  30 in DTP.


  32. Lance – I think if apple puts a GPS in their upcoming 3G phone it’s probably going to start to hurt a bit.  I just got to use a GRMN a month or so ago and was impressed enough that I was considering buying my parents one for their anniversary, but now I’m not so sure.


  33. 9:30 *DISTILLATE INVENTORIES ROSE 1.13 MLN BARRELS, U.S. EIA SAYS
    9:30 *GASOLINE INVENTORIES FELL 1.48 MLN BARRELS, U.S. EIA SAYS
    9:30 *CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ROSE 3.85 MLN BARRELS, U.S. EIA SAYS


  34. Energy Report

    Crude   +  3.8
    Mogas  – 1.5
    Distillates  + 1.1


  35. Woo Hoo – 3.8M barrel build in oil, gasoline with a draw of 1.5M (good for VLO)  Distillates up 1.1M.  On the whole this will send oil down as this is a net 3M build, 4x expected so we are perfect – bad for XOM and good for VLO but keep tight stops on both!  XXX


  36. There was also a report that ATT will drop the iphone price to around $200 by subsidizing 200$ in costs and trying to acquire more customers. This would be available only in ATT stores.


  37. AAPL 178 again… trying to be bought up.  tech popping while energy getting crushed and materials following.  Financials popping off this bottom a little.


  38. Energy
    The other factor that isn’t caught in the headline is the total feedstock supply.  I’ve been watching and it’s been jumping, as an example the total was up 10 million barrels for the week.  The difference is in "other oils" and "unfinished" inventory (another +4 million).  We know they play games with the report but this bears watching.


  39. WMT/Jeff – I only like to use a 2x if I’m really blown out or I am POSITIVE that the stock is not going down.  You have a long time and you have gains to protect so unless you intended to expand your position, the June $57.50s will cost you $1 to roll near expiration and give you another $1.50 in premium while continuing to cover 25% of your position.  I would not move the Jans to more premium unless you really need the money.  The main reason you would want to roll up your leaps is becasue the calls you sell don’t give you a comfortable amount of coverage.

    WFR/CMan – yes but I’d take the longs first and risk the Fed.

    C held up pretty well on that raise.


  40. OIl $114.50!!!!


  41. ltjay
    I have been playing MOS May 125 everytime it went below 3 yesterday.  Traded it 3 times.
    POT- I think I have beaten this to death so I will leave the comments to Phil


  42. Man, XOM is barely budging on the inventory numbers. THere must just be a lot of people expecting a blowout tomorrow. Hope they aren’t mistaken — erm, well yes I do.


  43. Shortages Threaten Farmers’ Key Tool: Fertilizer
    Ms. Nha, her face weathered beyond its 51 years, said her growth was stunted by a childhood of hunger and malnutrition. Just a few decades ago, crop yields here were far lower and diets much worse. Then the widespread use of inexpensive chemical fertilizer, coupled with market reforms, helped power an agricultural explosion here that had already occurred in other parts of the world. Yields of rice and corn rose, and diets grew richer. Now those gains are threatened in many countries by spot shortages and soaring prices for fertilizer, the most essential ingredient of modern agriculture.


  44. Phil – What is your strategy for CVX& XOM puts?

    -->


  45. AAPL- up 50% in the last couple months….it needs to pullback, right?


  46. BBD – thanks. I picked up some yesterday afternoon for a quick trade – looking for 124.


  47. POT – If the Fed cuts, they are a buy but I still think they move with commodities.

    CAL loving the report, congrats to those flying with me!

    BIDU totally asleep against GOOG move, one or the other will come towards the middle.

    I’ve gotta get HUM off my screen, every time I see them I get angry!


  48. POT – speaking of which, hanging out at it’s 20 dma again…


  49. VLO
    Backwards reaction…refiners down….integrateds up.  I like the refiners on a feedstock pullback.


  50. Mark – FSLR – got it, swee. ok, now that price has dipped 8min, I can see premiums dropping fast esp. if looking at short 310 callers….


  51. MOS – following along 34 ema nicely, failing at R2 a couple times, but still looking good.  failing 34 now looking to test 89 as next support… if it breaks R2 then 124+just around the corner.  Scary to play anything fed day IMHO…


  52. RIG- eyeing again


  53. mck – YES.  so tested 34, popped off then back below… broke 89 at the same time now trying to keep $300 which is a big number… i.e. it could change the day trading trend if "they" don’t want it below 300… but if that doesn’t hold (big bar volume takes it down) then look for 200 min ema or $295 test.


  54. AAPL keeps testing 34 ema, keeps popping off and above.  looks strong so far.


  55. Phil:
    my AAPL  covers are 4 may 170 and 2 may 175, quite a bit ITM,
    stock is now 178,
    Bernanke speaks when, I speculate no change in interest rate(if there is an intellect left in the man),
    this all could mean further drop in oil, and good for tech ?
    How do you see this ?


  56. WFR at least reacting well at the momment..


  57. AAPL- mid bollinger is 159ish, this is also the support of a channel i can draw that started in mid MAR…yes, i have callers eating me up.

    my best chance is a hawkish FOMC. i predict they cut 25bps and start talking about ending the party. in this case, i can expect everything to soften (tech, financial, commodities).


  58. big buy program.  volume on futures huge.


  59. aapl callers starting to get some very long teeth and loud growls.


  60. A few random observations as we get ready to exhale at 2:15 p.m. Eastern time:

    * Liquidity will be thin and volatility fierce on either side of the announcement. Keep that in mind if you’re trading and reduce the size of your positions in kind.

    * The first move following the FOMC’s announcement is typically the false move.

    * The path of maximum frustration in equities may include a false breakout by the SP

    * The rotation out of commodities should continue, particularly if the dollar catches a bid due to the perceived pause in the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.

    * The oil drillers and gold miners may have double jeopardy as a function of underlying commodity weakness and retail traders often using them as a proxy for exposure to the space.

    * The financials enjoyed a relief rally after the market machination didn’t completely seize up. At a point, investors will shift their focus to the massive issuance in the sector and its dilutive effect on earnings.


  61. bought out my aapl callers early this morning. back in with a 50/50 mix of 175′s @ $8.00 & 180′ s @ 5.25


  62. C- huge volume in the JAN10 30s (21k traded, yet OI is 86.5k, so whatever)

    also, comparable volume in JUN & MAY 27.5s (OI 56k & 90K respectively)


  63. aapl has r2  @ 179 and change


  64. Banks and brokerages are picking up steam.


  65. Valero Energy-VLO downgraded to Neutral from Outperform@FBCO (pre-open) :


  66. Phil:

    looks, maybe, market anticipates no cut, equities are attractive again, except oil-related issues:

    now, assuming that oil-related stuff will drop further:
    which positions are best in your estimation:
    I know you like:
    short XLE, XOM, (these are refiners)
    what about USO (oilo itself, or DUG.
    Would appreciate to hear your view.


  67. take notice !! aapl hugged the bottom og the bollenger bands all the way down and has been hugging the top of the bollenger bands all the way back up !!


  68. RMM
    You are making a big mistake if you think  XOM and XLE are just refiners.  VLO, TSO are refiners, XOM is an integrated oil company.


  69. bbd
    Saw the downgrade of VLO earlier today.  Sold some puts to see if I can gain entry again.


  70. SU clinging to $110, 50dma of $105 next support?


  71. Feedstocks – good point Fred!

    XOM – don’t say you didn’t get a chance to buy the puts, they keep rallyig back up!

    VLO stopped out.

    XOM is a day trade and if I make .25 I’m out, otherwise I’ll risk earnings.  CVX is June so I’m happy to add some at $1.27 (gives me an even $1.50 basis). 

    AAPL/Xian – you are basing a pullback assumption on the idea that there was some sort of validity to the sell-off but there was not.  I would suggest looking at their chart as if the entire drop to $120 was a bad data-point and assume that the bottom of the previous uptrend, let’s say $190 should be the new mid-point.  Since that would pull the 200 dma up to $170, I think it’s a pretty safe bet that $170 will hold as a floor and $210 will be the next major breakout..  Interestingly, using the 5% rule with $120 as a base, $210 is exactly a 75% move up which means we’d look for significant consolidations at $150 (yes there was), $180 (here we are) and $210, above which we should get to $240 before the next correction.  If you look at Apple’s usual weekly behavior along the 200 dma, you’ll note that it does tend to bottom out $10 above the 200 dman so that, again, would be $180 against my corrected 200 dma at $170.

    AAPL/RMM – I agree re. Fed and I will be all over Bernanke tonight if he cuts but I’m not moving most of my stuff until I see the whites of the bull’s eyes after the Fed. 

    XOM I have faith in going down with Oil staying low.

    Volume on futures – Yes, remember our plan was to buy the SPY calls if we broke 1,400 but it’s very scary to do ahead of the Fed so I will just have my finger on the trigger. 

    I see MUR, FWLT, FTEK, DO, ECA, HOC, USO… all weak.  Gold going down, oil now $113.  Gosh this makes me happy!


  72. Are the oil service companies as vulnerable as the rest of the oil patch?   I’m specifically in SLB and HAL and looking for an entry point for long-term buy.


  73. interested I meant


  74. C – yes, great chance to get in on those leaps (although I"d stay in the money to sell).

    Oil puts – CVX is a gift up here.  All due to GS upgrade and all their sheep piling in on two terrible days for oil.  USO is, of course fun but (as you well know RMM) very dangerous and XLE is a good way to play the sector down.  I mentioned a couple of others that were still up in my earnings reports (BP June $70 puts XXX).

    ELN making new highs.


  75. What time does cramer pump FSLR (in PST)


  76. VLO   getting slammed… down 6 %


  77. Oil service – real lagging indicator but a RIG rig is only worth $500K a day if the oil is at $100 a barrel.  At $70 a barrel, that rig rents for $250K again. 

    Cramer is on 2:30 EST for his random pumps.  I can’t imagine him not foaming at the mouth over FSLR but I’m already pissed I didn’t buy the puts earlier – they were expensive for a good reason!


  78. CROX heading back to the dirt.  You can still sell $10s to cover for .90 and you should!  XXX


  79. Phil:
    I believe I learned from you  (thyank a lot) some very important actions to be taken:
    assuming I still believe in the stock,

    • don’t just suffer thru a loss, (I tended just to wait too long), roll closer to ATM
    • don’t let it drop too far, how much you pay for the roll is important
    • get some $ back by selling shorts against the long position.

    If this is all correct, then I need to repostion my oil and NG related stuff as just about all are down.
    That is what I will do ?  You agree with this strategy ?


  80. MSFT – some blogs reporting that they will have a response to YHOO’s "defiance" later today.
    The Times of London online site reports that (based on a Wall Street Journal report) MSFT is proposing a list of alternative board of directors, thus putting on hold the need for a full hostile takeover until July 12. The date that YHOO must hold it’s annual meeting and elect a new board of directors..
    Any idea if this is what’s fueling MSFT rise in the stock today?


  81. I have a general question about CS. I’m long with ’10 LEAPs on a couple of (what I hope are) slow steady growing companies (BBBY, WFMI, PAYX) that are relatively low-priced.   When the caller goes ITM, sometimes it is hard to roll-up for a credit.   Do you tend to skip a month on your roll in order to get a credit, or do you roll one month/one step even if it costs you a debit?   If the answer is "it depends" what factors do you consider.  Feel free to save for AH or point me to the K-1 section if it’s easier.


  82. FRED- Thanks for the Oil grid yesterday.    Goodluck tonight.  Any reason why the games start so early today?
    Lester pitched a gem last night


  83. Phil Thx for CVX/XOM plan. I have 1/3 of my position of MSFT ($28.9) in Jan 10 $25 with base of $8.8. Do you think that adding another 1/3 at this time at price of ~$6.8? My intention is to place GTC order for $6.2, which is roughly equivalent to $28 current price that is on a support level. Thx,

    -->


  84. Phil, MDT caller up 50% in 25KP (although was a half cover)…. take him out here or wait for the fed mtg.


  85. mck – you playing FSLR puts?  nice break at 300 and fail of it’s 89 and 34 again around 11:15ish… it’s been slowly testing the other MA’s and failing all the rest of the day.  Now sitting on it’s calculated R2 from yesterdays’ info.  Let’s see if it acts as support or if the MA’s telling the truth (down).


  86. NVDA rewarding our patience now.

    SNE ’09 $50s at $4 XXX  Can sell June $50s for $1 but I’ll risk it to .75.


  87. BBD, phoenix deserved to loose.  Steve "turnover" Nash.  Dantoni is on his way out – that’s the local rumor.


  88. I’m sure you already saw this but:

    10:53 *BA EXPLORES `OPPORTUNITIES’ WITH AMERICAN AIRLINES, CONTINENTAL


  89. bbd
    Celts, early?  I have 8:00 PM….Lester was fantastic and so was Halladay until the 9th.  What a conflict they are both on my fantasy baseball team, good night for ERA & WHIP though.


  90. I love ToS.  This is Prophet.  A charting system that let’s you extrapolate trends.  This is what I do on paper.  I still have the first one I did on AAPL in 2004 because my steepest trendline was annihilated to the upside.  Anyways, this is what I see for AAPL longterm.  When you zoom in on the nearterm, you see that AAPL is coming up on the trendline I have drawn, but that trendline is totally arbitrary as it needs to eventually be anchored to a high point.  We are still looking for that highpoint.  I do agree that we are damn near the top, BBD.  But on the daily chart, it looks like we are probably there.

    So, do your worst, but the prudent thing is probably to cover as the daily channel requires a breakout from here to go higher, and a pullback can go to 160 this afternoon and not break trend. 

    GOOG, I haven’t done the same workup on yet for the NT, but this is why I am in a Jan ’10 950/1100 call spread.


  91. Potter
    VLO…yes that’s ugly.  I sold a bunch of May & June puts on the downgrade this morning.  If oil comes down it will help the refiners especially Valero and this is the time of year to own refiners, if ever.  Also, they still have $3.8 billion to buyback authorized and they are selling some of their underperforming refineries so I think they have some great upside.  TSO results will be really ugly this quarter.


  92. FSLR
    Darn it, I missed my short by  $2.


  93. How did we miss shorting RIMM yesterday?

    $10KP – stuck for now.

    $25KP – annoying yo-yo action.  Out of ADBE at $3, CROX covered, NVDA out at $1.40, buying back MDT caller for .50


  94. FRED- First game is at 5:00 CST.  That is early for me.
    Jomama-It might be a race to see if it is he or Johnson that goes first.


  95. RIG,
    Most of these day rates are locked in for some time and the long term cycle is positive for rates even if oil retraces unless you believe oil is going back to sub $60.


  96. GRMN making a comeback…could be another V


  97. RIG- Has the same longterm contracts that BA is enjoying.   I thought that is why BA was a longterm buy?  But it is oil related so it must be different.


  98. okay, I’ve tried to figure it out so I’ll just ask…what does Phil mean with XXX on certain posts?  I know he’s not blowing us kisses (at least I hope not), but my best guess is that it represents an actual trade for one of the ports.   Am I right?  Anyone, anyone, Bueller…?


  99. well the question for the day is will aapl & dow break below their respective r1′s ??


  100. phil/AAPL- thanks for feedback…very nice perspective on the abberant trading at 120. my only problem is MAY 160 callers that r 9.00 ahead on me. i can roll the slightly ITM guys w/o too much doubt, but the deep ITM callers is where i get a skittish b/c of the payout. 

    i’m long JAN 130s and up 35.00 on them, so i’m thinking rolling up to JAN 160s for 20.00 credit, waiting for a dip to roll the MAY 160s to MAY 175s for 10.00 debit. 

    is that a good adjustment? its a busy day, so i can wait until AH- but i’ll b rolling up now anyway b/c of the rallying. thanks again.

    BA- if they get into operating airlines in anyway, i think that’s a huge mistake…unless the plan is to have a monopoly and gauge us all to profititability- but still, y b a miner when u can sell tools in a mining town.


  101. PhiL;
    another roll for me, see what you think:
    DNA had a bad drop on news of a drug not working, I like the future of DNA,
    have 10 jan85, base 4.30, sell these for 2.2 and buy 15 jan70 for 6.9$, then sell may70 for 1.4$..
    Is that ok?


  102. Mark – FSLR, I was shorting the 300 calls at 12, now 7.40, may still be a good deal.


  103. Phil,  has your thesis (thoughts) on WFR changed.  Are you considering dumping your leaps or do you think this is just a little hic-cup.  I realize that your basis on your/our Leaps is way down.  thanks.


  104. DTP – Taking $3 for ADBE. OIH – rolling May $200 puts to $195 puts ($3.75)

    General – I’m moving to mostly 3/4 covers ahead of the Fed, essentially with 1/2 covers that means buying the covers I would want to roll my lower covers into.   This gives me some money to roll the original 1/2 covers up to a higher strike if the Fed is good and, of course, gives me a little more coverage if they disappoint.  I’m worried that a commoditiy crash could pull down the markets as XOM and CVX have miles to fall and can cost the Dow 100 points and the financials may not like a pause (no more loan crack spread) and financials + oil + other commodities are over 1/2 the S&P  XXX


  105. mck – great play my friend.  all MA’s still pointing down.  busted thru all R’s.  Look for test of yesterdays’c close at 285 esentially…  otherwise don’t think it’ll go much lower curently.


  106. eph
    it means a recommended trade.  if it doesn’t specify a portfolio than it’s for the DTP or STP.  don’t jump in until you understand this strategy.


  107. Mark – nice call on FSLR, you’ve got a knack !


  108. Mark – MA is still pretty hyped, 290s went for 5 this am, now 3.5.


  109. film- nice AAPL stuff, i was about to ask for ur crystal ball predictions. i c mad support at 160ish as well- now all i need to c is a pullback.


  110. mck – the 310′s correct?  very nice, but look for a pull back here IMHO.


  111. correction, that question should have been r1 for aapl and r2 for the dow ? sorry !


  112. thanks windy


  113. GRMN != V.


  114. mck – MA was good to take a little profits, but sitll a strong company.

    FSLR – pop pop… on the nose…


  115. bought back my aapl callers @ aapl’s r1 point for nice gain on both $180′s and $175 50/50 mix. now naked again !


  116. phil,
    what was that big spike up on aapl ($180 @ 12:33 am). someone tyring to trigger auto stops ?


  117. JLL.   I’ve been watching it for a while and it got hammered on an earnings miss (although revenue was good).  I haven’t listened to the CC, but I wonder if anyone here follows it.


  118. Mark - FSLR 310 calls, you’re right, they are coming back up. Also MA 290 calls. All short.


  119. general question on rolling- on the average, when is it best to roll up the long postions that r profitable: during a rally or a sell-off?

    i would think a rally.


  120. any thoughts on MA July puts in the 240-250 range?


  121. 180 AAPL print – I think someone just wanted to print the gravestone doji to mark the top of this move, I guess we’ll see how it goes


  122. YHOO in the green following MSFT.
    Speculation ahead of an announcement?


  123. Phil – Should we close NVDA in 10KP too?


  124. occam,
    you might be right. aapl almost had a doji at the top of the teacup handle on 4/8 !


  125. Mark,

    When you have a moment can you explain your rationale for the 8, 34, 89 moving averages?  These are all minutes correct?


  126. MA and V:

    what will happen to these if Bernanke does not cut??

    Up or down ?


  127. FOMC- i think they’ll b balanced by throwing a bone (25bps cut), but using very hawkish language and outlook.


  128. …what’s 25bps among friends? (oh yeah, billions and billions- i forgot)


  129. WFR:  any opinions on WFR’s future ?


  130. Phil – yesterday, by misunderstanding and unintentionally, I have almost done the opposite of your intended trade. Please clarify for me: if you say “Taking $3 for ADBE” do you mean that you are closing position for $3, or you are “taking” (opening) new calls for $3? Thx.


  131. I put in orders to cover my AAPL leaps with May 175′s if I can get $10 for them today (approx $182 stock price).  Sometimes you just have to be greedy….  But, I see a possible resistance point at 182 if there is any sort of Fed rally.  I can live with an uncovered pullback, and this gives me a chance if there is a strong rally to not have to chase.


  132. Phil, I have the Sep / May 62.5/70 spread on V at a basis of 7.9. Any adjustments or keep on selling the front month calls at higher brackets?


  133. FilmFlam,
    what would be wrong with covering w/ $180′s @ $7, we still have 17 days to expire ? btw to what degree are you going to cover 50/75/100 ??


  134. Newbie in need of a  lil’ help from Capt. Phil please:
    -1 AAPL MAY $165 CALL with basis $7.45, current price $14.85
    +1 AAPL JAN 2009 $170 with basis $25.35, current price $31.58
    Question:  where to roll short callers?
    -1 V MAY $75 CALL with basis $4.90, current price $8.60
    +1 V JAN 09 $70 CALL  with basis $13.70, current price $19.60
    Question:  where to roll short callers?
    Stephen (OptionRider)


  135. Rockfeller family move to alternative fuel — interesting as the Rockfellers are one of the largest private landowners in the US  --Will XOM trade as a solar stock???  :)


  136. Hey Fred – the best explaination I have is here.  As far as why do I use specficially 8, 34, 89, and 200 min ema’s on a 1 min tick chart… ?  That’s a great question.  Here’s the best answer I can give: the standards are what your system automatically uses (5, 20, 50, 200 whether it’s intraday or LT).  So a lot of people start off with that… but everything moves differently.  8 is not as fast as 5 and gives you a better indication for quick change… watching for fast MA’s to move thru / around slower MA’s will give you more "force" to your idea behind the current trend.  Since MA’s are not magic but simply an average of price over time, they’re great indications of, IMHO, where price is going.  They don’t lie, they simply SUPPORT the trend (i.e. tell you which way it’s going).  So if price is breaking thru one way or the other a short, then longer, then longer MA… price will keep confirming "that" way.  Does that make sense?

    Those 8, 34, and 89 min MA’s are imporant b/c big boys watch those for their trading… ;)


  137. Nothing wrong, just determined that I would make more money on a pullback to 165 by selling more ITM.

     I was just looking at the GLD and DZZ charts, again with the wedges.  Both pushing hard into resistance.  Think I am going to close that DZZ trade, too.  Up 5% in a few days on an ETF.  That is good enough.  Feel like a dollar rescue started with a FEd announcement seems highly unlikely.  More likely, we get Fed governors talking it up over the next few weeks.  Just going to play my perception of the odds.

  138. RMM – All correct and with oils you are behind on, best to go back in time, wait to see what the Fed does and be ready to sell puts against your longer position if they rally oil. If oil can’t hold $114 today, they are in big trouble.  Nat gas inventory tomorrow, a build there over expected will send the whole group lower (not to mention the devastation that would be caused by XOM not having great earnings).

    Rolling/Eph – Of course it depends!  Mostly on what you think the next month will bring.  I am happy to pay $2 to roll my caller $5 off the money if I don’t think I need protection at that level.  Say you sold the WFMI $30s that are now way in the money at $3.50 with almost no premium.  I would spend .75 without question to roll them to the June $32s, that’s a $1.20 return on my .75 and I’m still covered for $2.75.  If I were more bullish, I might spend another .55 to roll them to the June $33s, but that’s spending .55 for my next dollar in position and only putting them into .40 more premium – very much diminishing returns! 

    MSFT/Bronek – I would add the Jan $27.50s for $3.75 at this point.  You already have the $25s and the stock is near enough $30 that these are looking very attractive and they accomplish your main goal of allowing you to sell more calls against your existing $25s while keeping some extra for an upside.  If you buy those and fully cover the $25s (which are almost all in the money) with May $29s, then June $30s, that’s 150% of the premium on the new calls back ($1.50 x 2 as you have 1/3 new and 2/3 old) and you still get the full upside benefit on 1/2 of your position.  AFTER you get nicely ahead, then you can roll back and relax.

    MDT – as above, not really taking a too bullish stance into the Fed.  If they give us a huge rally I will buy SPY calls for the move up and deal with rolling later.

    BA (British Air)/CAL – that we knew.  BA has cash and the dollar is low, it’s very much worth them looking.

    VLO – I do like them but no one else does so the heck with it!

    RIG – are you sure they are locked with no peg to oil?  Would be a very foolish contract for an oil company to sign and I don’t think they were that desparate for rigs.  Yes they were in demand and expensive but the oil companies weren’t in a frenzy to pump oil, it was just a trading bubble.

    Oh there goes HES!

    XXX is a trade I would recommend, whether in a portfolio or not.  Sometimes I already have something, like GOOG and I’m not buying more but if I see something good I’ll XXX it.  Then there are the many times I discuss a trade and sometimes I am telling someone a good way to position and it occurs to me that it would be good for anyone in that trade or entering new.  The reason we do the XXX is so people who check in once in a while can put XXX in their finder and it quickly takes them to any "important" comments (and this post with 5 XXX’s in it must be driving them nuts!).

    AAPL/Xian – You have Jan $130s with $10 in premium.  You can collect $15 to roll up to the $150s which have $15 in premium so it’s pretty much costing you $5 to get $15 (not to mention the $20 of intrinsic value you are giving up).  I would have to say it’s a $10 loss for you to roll there.  So the question is, what are you getting that’s so great that you are willing to pay $5 in premium and give up $20 in position?  If the answer is $15 in cash, that might not be too smart…
    Now you owe your $160 caller $17 intrinsic and $1 in premium.  You could spend $7 to roll him to the $175s, which have $2.50 intrinsic and $5 in premium.  Now you are getting back $15 of the $20 you gave up in position and $4 of the $5 in premium you gave up.  BUT, you got $15 on your end and you can afford to roll 2 of his callers up for each one of yours that you roll up – NOW we are getting somewhere!  So now you are giving up $20 of your own position and taking on $5 in premium in exchange for having 2 callers give up $15 in position ($30) and taking on + $4 in premium ($8) so this is a good roll and you get to keep 1/2 of your positions in the $130s or you can roll them up on the next run. 

    Those are some of the factors I look at (in answer to an earlier question).

    DNA – Beware of downgrades to follow.  I would not sell so fast, you just lost the money, it may bounce and, if it gets worse, then your roll down is cheaper (the call you want to roll to will lose value faster than you).  Rather than spend $4.50  to roll to the Jan $70s, I’d rather roll to 2x the June $70s at $3.05 (was $5.50 on Monday) and sell $70s for $1.50.  This takes you from $4.30 invested to $8 invested (the $6 for 2 June calls less the $2 you get for your dead calls) but then gives you back a quick $3 ($5) which can be rolled to the June $75s no worse than even which will leave you in with a $5 spread at which point you can keep the vertical or roll yourself back to the Sept $75s, now $3.30, which would give you an excellent chance to get even (and you would be at least 50% covered with a 3 month spread).

    WFR – I do still like them but now I’ll roll my Jan $85s down (because it got cheap) and cover more.  The roll to the Jan $70s is just $5 and I can sell the $65s for $2.50 in premium and an easy roll to the June $70s worst case so the diagonal is only temporary.  XXX


  139. mark- i’m starting a studies sets in my tos platform w/ 8, 34, 89 min MAs- thanks for sharing. can i ask where u learned about these non-standard MAs and the big player affinity for them?


  140. Wow!  That AAPL commentary for Xian is great stuff.  It makes the monthly payment seem all the more worth it.
    Now, I just need to read it a few more times.


  141. hey xian – I learned from a futures buddy of mine (he makes a lot more money than me LOL).  He’s crazy technical, but insisted I put these on my charts.  I asked him why these, and he did not explain… said something to the effect "b/c that’s what matters".  Don’t forget the 200 min ema. 

    He said 8 and 34 best on a 5 min chart, but useful on 1 min tick.  And to watch 89min on a 13min tick chart.  All good for trend changes.


  142. Mark
    I think I would go nuts watching one minute charts.    I have drifted into a trading style that allows me more freedom to travel and play golf.


  143. Phil-  

    Need the assist on two more "f’d up" deals….learning process of course:
    Jacked up Applefly-

    2 AAPL JULY $165 CALL with basis $14.10, current price $21.00
    -3 AAPL JUN $160 CALL with basis $16.04, current price $22
    -1 AAPL MAY $170 CALL with basis $6.80, current price $10.88
    2 AAPL JUN $170 CALL with basis $10.70, current price $15

    Question:  where roll callers…and other moves if need be?

    Dangerous short Puts on Pot-smoker-

    -1 POT MAY $180 PUT with basis $9.35, current price $7.80
    1 POT JUN $200 PUT with basis $19.40, current price $26.20
    -1 POT MAY $185 CALL with basis $7.85, current price $8.10
    1 POT JAN 2009 $200 CALL with basis $43.00, current price $28.70

    Question:  where to roll the short Put and thots on calls?

    Runnin’ Away VISA:

    -1 V MAY $85 CALL with basis $1.30, current price $2.55
    1 V SEPT $85 CALL with basis $6.80, current price $8.80

    QUESTION:  Stand-pat on caller or roll him up to May $90 for $1.12?

    THANKS….READING K-1 PROJECT IS UNREAL BUT INSANE AMOUNT OF DATA…..K-1 is the Sheet!!!


  144. Phil:

    what is your take on V and MA:

    if Bernanke does not cut, what will these do ?


  145. SS – ha!  it’s not for everyone.  But I’m a day trader… caveat: I DO NOT BUY LEAPS AND SELL FRONT MONTHS.

    In fact I don’t really play options at all.  Stocks / options / FI professionaly, futures personally.

    Also b/c I have 34, 89, and 200 min ema’s on my chart, I watch the tick but not by the minute… by the 34 min… or 89 min… same way as someone watching a 5 min / 15 min / 30 min tick chart… I just use my trends to tell me when thing will change.

    For instance my FSLR comment to mck at 12:33… that was a clear bottom to me… pop pop pop.  Don’t know if he got out of his short down there or not, but it was close to the "perfect" spot at that time.

    1 min isn’t scary… it’s just a more detailed version of the charts you guys watch.


  146. AAPL spike – You mean 12:53?  I don’t see anything that unusual, may have just been an innocent schmuck putting in a market buy unlucky enough to not find any sellers (this is why I always ask for crazy numbers – sometimes you get them!).  Based on the 5% rule (as discussed above) $180 should be natural resistance (and it doesn’t have to be exactly $180) off the move from $150 so a 20% pullback (to $174) is expected before they head back up.  Of course note that the spike at 12:53 (on the 1 min chart) topped out at $178.33, which is were a doulbe test was put in at 12:02 and 12:04 and again at 13:15 so don’t think those spikes are totally meaningless, they find something!

    Hey that Fed is creeping up on us!  I buy 1 share of SPY June $143s, now $2.42 as it’s quicker for me to reorder if I’m in a hurry.  That will be my upside buffer as the S&P is poised to make a run to $145 if they crack up from here with strength.  On the downside, I’m already well covered.

    Bought GOOG $560 puts at $9, just figure good risk/reward inot the Fed.  XXX (dangerous of course).


  147. phil, u the man- thanks again for the great feedback.

    BA- DERRR!!!! brit air makes so much more sense, sorry for the confusion.


  148. CVX just ran up a buck from its low


  149. xian
    if you roll your may 160 up to 175 wont that cost you about 11.5,  not 7?  Was reviewing the comments and this part was confusing me.


  150. and SS – if I was retired, I would have your trading style too LOL. 

    In futures you can pretty much know your S/R at the beginning of the  day… set your limits, stop loss, trailing stops, etc.  Out the door at 10 with the knowledge that you’ll either lose $200 today or gain $5k.  It is what it is.


  151. XOM-High of the day


  152. mark- thanks ‘bruh, u add a lot to this board. excellent info as i’m looking to build daytrade skills/techniques. right now all i got is the 5MA style, which is brilliant, so thanks Opt for sharing that (where ever u r)


  153. GOOG – Phil, I did a 1:2 roll from a goog OTM spread a week ago to jan/may 550s. Now with goog at 580, the 36 premium I rolled my caller into is now 7+. I think you said you wait till near .05 – .10 premium on your rolls, any different in this case? Should I take comfort in your GOOG put play?


  154. CVX – breaking thru to the other side?  Pull up a 2 year chart of that bad boy…


  155. Mark – please sign me up for the -200 or +5k program, especially if I can golf all afternoon.


  156. Mark…follow your TA on GS….do you see it making a run ..I see a reseistance level here in the $193.70 range..thanks


  157. Mark
    I appreciate your sharing too.  I am more of a swing trader but that is all what day trading is but a few different setups etc to watch.  I have heard futures is where yo want to be .  John Carter’s book seems to have a fairly good take on it all but have not practiced it yet. nothing beats experience.


  158. Mark – on your FSLR bottom, you nailed the turn after just 5 minutes post bottom. That’s nice but could you cut it down to say 2 minutes? Better yet, let us know about 10 minutes before it happens. Nice work chief! :)


  159. aapl vol creeping up !


  160. steve- true that. i guess that changes the deal from a 1:2 roll (ie i roll up 1 long and 2 shorts) to a 2:3 roll…poor phil, he’s trading for all of us. (well, not too poor…LOL)


  161. levost – 200 dma is 193.80 right now… GS has been going up of late on no volume…  It ALL depends on the fed with banks.  if it breaks 200 ma then $200 I’d look for $220 easily


  162. ok all sectors being bought up into fed.  7 min and counting.

    mck – ha!  not always that accurate, but that was "clear" to me.


  163. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120957280992056647.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

    NVDA
    I don´t see any Outflow of money on the Volume Flow Indicator

    Or with what a indicator can you see it?


  164. Rolling/Xian – your lower calls have intrinsic value and. as long as the premium of the higher calls isn’t too crazy, then you want to roll while your value is up.  The main thing you should be looking at is (as in above example) what are you giving up (positon, taking on premium, time) vs. what are you getting and what use can you put that money to.

    MA – I really think they are going to get tagged with a hyena attack based on CC regulations before expiration but betting against them is very tough!

    NVDA – yes, sorry, all closed!  $10KP too.

    ADBE/Bronek – I meant closing our existing position for $3.  I am very big on taking round numbers when offered (if I think we’re toppy) and selling round numbers when I can, especailly when I can get $1 for a call on a cheap leap that is mainly premium.

    V/Arindam – let’s see what sticks.

    AAPL/Rider – I’d wait until the Fed and don’t worry as you can roll the caller to the June $175s for near even.  NEVER sell callers who are lower than you unless you have an amazingly good plan to bail yourself out!  
    As to the V play – See how much better it is when you have a lower strike?  Same waiting until Fed but the $75s can be rolled to June $80s for very little so no worries there either.

    XOM is off in fantasy land IMHO.  CVX is there too but at least on that one we know it’s GS sheep propping them up.

    Rider – 1:35 set too close to Fed, you’ll have to remind me later.

    MCK – GOOG is different due to massive strike amounts, I’m stuck with some low callers too but time heals all wounds with Goog, ask after the Fed.

    Not to dis Mark’s very good system but  come on guys:  FSLR opens at $277, runs to $307 (+$30) and pulls back to $287 ( -$10) for a neat 1/3 retrace.  You need to learn to look for these things without having to bury your head in calculators.  Also, note that the spike low at that time was exacalactly yesterday’s high of the day.  Try using a chart that has candles longer than 5 minutes and these things can look pretty obvious to you.  Like the fact that the bounce from $287 to $294 took 50% longer than the fall so indications are it won’t break $295.50 which is a 1/4 length stick of the 30 point run and I’m sure some physics guys can explain that as it pertains to an object losing momentum and casting a downtrending trajectory with each subsequent bounce so we look for a retest of $287 and a failure to make it back to $290.50 for a very strong signal to short this thing down to $275.


  165. Mark etal.
    For what it’s worth, 5,8,13, 34, 89 are all Fibonacci numbers. As are 21 and 55. Either because of the intrinsic ratio between them or because so many traders use them they are self fulfilling.


  166. markets at HOD, AAPL is not…..hmmmm or noise?


  167. Oops that was, of course, $294.50 ($7.50 from $287).


  168. GS popping off R1… above 200 dma…


  169. Holy cow with HES!


  170. interesting that option spreads widen so much before the announcement, I had never taken notice of that before



  171. Colombian peso says they are cutting


  172. 13:15 *FED SAYS `SUBSTANTIAL’ EASING TO DATE SHOULD PROMOTE GROWTH
    13:15 *FED CUTS FEDERAL FUNDS RATE BY QUARTER-POINT TO 2 PERCENT
    13:15 *FED SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY `REMAINS WEAK’
    13:15 *FED REITERATES EXPECTATION FOR INFLATION TO MODERATE
    13:15 *FED DROPS REFERENCE TO DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH
    13:15 *FED TO ACT `AS NEEDED’ TO PROMOTE GROWTH, PRICE STABILITY
    13:15 *FED SAYS CREDIT, HOUSING TO WEIGH ON GROWTH FOR A FEW QUARTERS


  173. bbd- was it u who had a good site for watch the champions league live? what was it? i’m searching, but thought urs was tried and true- thanks.

    phil- nice way to sum up the critical factors- learning a lot today (i love that feeling of "aha!")


  174. BP still way up there, June $70 puts are fun. 

    Oh a cut!   They suck!  And another cut in the discount rate…  Very negative outlook.  "Expect inflation to moderate" but they are going to cut like fiends while they wait.   At least they say they are concerned about inflation and there were two dissenters so it is possible they will stop here but the discount window cut was ridiculous, more taxpayers bailing out banks.

    I am however buying more XOM $90 puts for .85 and I’ll give up if they hold $84 for more than 10 mins. 

    Markets do like it on the whole, we should get through 13,000, let’s see if we hold it!


  175. Not buying SPYs on this, statement was too wishy washy and my bull premise requires a strong dollar, this is not it.


  176. XIAN- sorry I will be watching on ESPN2


  177. Phil,

    Do you have any changes on the naked TASR Jun 10 in the 10K?

    Thanks


  178. Phil,
    Based on today’s FED announcement, do you think it would be good to buy some NEM calls?  Any thoughts, since the outlook for a strong dollars wasn’t that evident from the FOMC statements.
    Thanks.


  179. It looks like XLF don´t like the cut


  180. AAPL- volume is anemic w/ 23M traded  w/ 40M 50dMA (on an FOMC day!)


  181. Okay Phil, you’ve now officially brought this long-term oriented investor over to the trading dark side!  I bought 10 XOM 90 puts for .80.   Why do I hear heavy breathing in my ear, and who is this Luke guys he’s talking about?!


  182. Phil’s comment – he’s right in every case.  If you notice I’ve posted multiple times 1 day, 2 day, 5 day, 10 day charts… even said that’s what I look at over and over.  It’s not rocket science (in fact it’s "rather" simple) just needs to you to study some charts and understand how different stocks behave around different points (pivots, highs, lows, closes, MA’s, etc).  Everybody has their "thing"… this is mine.  Not a system, there is no system to it… just reading the market is all I do.  It only takes me 10 sec to scroll thru 10 charts and see what I need to in a stock.  Fact is if the market says up you can bet pretty damn sure I’m making money off of it for my clients.


  183. Bernanke and the Fed stink.


  184. Phil,

    I know you are a oil bear now. But this move of the Fed will led into +120$ Oil.

    VLO 50$ calls at 1.2 still a good buy?


  185. haksawmusic – (which BTW, reminds me of this band) – that doesn’t surprise me.  Most TA is def self fulfilling… hence why it works ;-)


  186. Mark,
    YOu didn’t strike me as a fan of Klezmer music!


  187. phil
    is fslr puts still a hold?


  188. why does LVS love the cut so much?


  189. And, of course Esignal crashes again as soon as volume picks up!

    PNRA flying.

    CVX new ATH.

    TASR/$10KP – no, we are stuck with it (80 June $10s, .54 basis, now .15).

    Someone thinks XOM is going to have great earnings.  I’m just going to get out on the pullback when I’m even I think, $4 is a long way from $90 and I need a $5 drop just to get even once the premium drops.  XXX  They got oil to $114.70 but it was a LOT of effort to get it there with a $1 run into the close.  USO, strangely, is not buying the move and is still at the LOT so you know there’s shenanigans when people are dumping USO despite a rise at the NYMEX.

    NEM calls – No, this was a statement that no one likes.  The Fed says the economy still sucks so inflation will moderate based on the fact that no one is buying anything.  Despite that, 2 governors didn’t even want to do this cut so the banks have nothing to look forward to (1/4 point was baked in) .  We’re getting a huge commodity bounce on that Fed statement but I don’t think anything changed from this morning and reality will return ahead of he weekend but I’m certainly not going to bet on it…


  190. Oh, great time to take out DIA putters and roll up!


  191. Just catching up.  When comments were first made by Mark about BA and AMR CAL talking, I thought of Boeing doing with the airlines what Pullman had with the railroads.  Could be interesting.  Boeing could own the planes and operate the cabin space, while the airlines would sell the seats and fly the planes.


  192. Fertilizer is taking off.  POT   MOS and ag stocks up


  193. ABX, NEM moving.


  194. Phil- thanks for info on previous AAPL and V positions.  Here is my reminder you requested on my 1:35pm post and pasted again below (these are separate positions from my 1.10pm):

    Phil-  
    Need the assist on two more "f’d up" deals….learning process of course:
    Jacked up Applefly-
    2 AAPL JULY $165 CALL with basis $14.10, current price $21.00
    -3 AAPL JUN $160 CALL with basis $16.04, current price $22
    -1 AAPL MAY $170 CALL with basis $6.80, current price $10.88
    2 AAPL JUN $170 CALL with basis $10.70, current price $15
    Question:  where roll callers…and other moves if need be?
    Dangerous short Puts on Pot-smoker-
    -1 POT MAY $180 PUT with basis $9.35, current price $7.80
    1 POT JUN $200 PUT with basis $19.40, current price $26.20
    -1 POT MAY $185 CALL with basis $7.85, current price $8.10
    1 POT JAN 2009 $200 CALL with basis $43.00, current price $28.70
    Question:  where to roll the short Put and thots on calls?
    Runnin’ Away VISA:
    -1 V MAY $85 CALL with basis $1.30, current price $2.55
    1 V SEPT $85 CALL with basis $6.80, current price $8.80
    QUESTION:  Stand-pat on caller or roll him up to May $90 for $1.12?


  195. crammer just drove jny up 6%


  196. haksawmusic – fantastic!  I’m a huge fan of Neutral Milk Hotel.  Good lawd Aeroplanes is one of my top albums of AT.   Also love me some Beirut.  My musical tastes range all over from Charlie Mingus to Sam Cooke to MGMT to Georgie James to White Denim… even any cock rock from the 80′s LOL.  Hell give me some John Farnham or Dweezil Zappa any day!  ROFL.


  197. xom
    headed to all time high tomorrow


  198. newparadigmz/LVS – Earnings is scheduled for later today and most likely accounts for the recent run-up


  199. FXE and FXB raising .. so guess $ Falling isn’t it


  200. Design..thanks…weird…briefing was saying May 5th a few days ago…

    also…is PBR reacting to this news or something else?
    EWZ iShares Brazil: Brazil’s credit rating raised to investment grade at S&P – Bloomberg (87.98 +4.07)


  201. finally a pullback.  just what i was hoping for!  my callers have been eating not just my lunch, but breakfast and dinner too.


  202. AAPL – going for the intra-day reversal!


  203. Ok Now is it the real movement ?? .. whayta breakdown .. man


  204. newparadigmz/LVS – Looks like the conference call is scheduled for 1:30PM PT today:
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=185629&p=irol-irhome


  205. WTF just happened to AAPL?


  206. check out the ratio of AAPL may calls to puts – ridiculous levels in some cases 8:1; but I have etrade, and many price quotes have been off; but huge ratio that’s just asking for punishment


  207. Welcome to the Dark Side Eph!  I’m out at $1, maybe leave some for fun but now that the Fed is dropping more dollars, I’m not comfortable with having just 2 weeks to be right.

    VLO – I do still like them but that’s a balance to my puts.  All commodities loving this Fed news now – they do totally suck, it’s unbelievable.  How does a .25 cut that sends oil back to $120 help anyone?  That’s $7 x 20M barrels a day is $140M per day or $51Bn a year x 2 for the other stuff that goes up along with oil so Bernanke just gave $100Bn of our money to XOM et al while saying "inflation is moderating."  And people wonder how revolutions get started…

    FSLR – moving with the commodities.  Damn GS, they had the playbook didn’t they, that’s how they could upgrade oil companies while oil was topping out, they knew they would be right on Wednesday!   It’s amazing how quickly money is rotating right back to the energy sector and gold…

    LVS – the cut means people can borrow even more money to buy gas to drive to vegas with their rebate checks.

    Rider:  AAPL – look at it drop, this is why we waited for the Fed.  They just took $100Bn out of consumers hands and gave it to XOM, took it from Apple and retailers (see SHLD pull back from a nice run, WMT, TGT looks like it was assasinated!)…  POT – I think you are fine, you have a while to go and lots of premium to work off on the callers.   V isn’t even at $85, what on earth are you worried about.  Worry about needing the $80s, not the $90s!

    JNY – that man is disturbed!  They were already up 10% in two days and NOW he puts people in it?  What a total son of a bitch he is!


  208. MOS- sold
    AAPL- bought


  209. Go Google puts!

    My whole OXPS front page has old data on it, havfe no idea what things are worth!


  210. windyw,
    is now the time to make your apl adjustments?


  211. Phil, hanging onto HOV calls in 25KP?


  212. etrade’s site not working accurately, beware.


  213. Money flying back to bonds!


  214. AAPL- DIE! the anemic volume was a tell. i’m sitting on my hands and will digest all of phil’s ideas.

    USO- DIE!

    C- take it easy, u can do no wrong in my eyes.

    MCD- that’s one tough cookie, so DIE! (please)

    alright folks im off to the mellow mushroom to catch the game-

    thanks for all the cool exchanges- going to re-read today’s posts a few times.

    film- i never been to the north pole


  215. We should have known that the FED -up is part of the Oil Kartel!


  216. Phil I screwed up this morning and rolled my may 160 callers to june 175′s, would you roll those back to lower mays?
    I have all low calls july and jan expiration


  217. HOV calls – may as well give them until tomorrow.  Homes are commodities too.

    2% Fed funds rate and we’re still paying 6% for a 30-year mortgage.  Who are these people helping??


  218. aapl still in noise level even after hyenas burned a lot of stock to drive it down way past the dow & nasdaq !!


  219. goooooo…

    13:56 Mavericks Fire Avery Johnson After First-Round Playoff Loss


  220. treasury buying – no doubt!  Everyone should really bring up two charts at all times: ES and ZB.  You can SEE the volume moving from one to the other.  insane. 

    “The market doesn’t think that easing is over,” said Lou
    Brien, a strategist at Chicago-based DRW Trading Group, which
    uses its own capital to make markets on interest-rate
    derivatives. “It seems that the Fed intends to pause, but
    definitely has an easing bias.”


  221. Mark,
    Thanks for the links. I’l see your Mingus, raise your Dweezil to papa Frank, throw in some Ali Farka Toure and the Ramones.


  222. highlander
    thanks.  i’m inclined to wait a bit and see where the dust settles.  not the least of which is due to etrade’s numbers all coming in way off their mark.


  223. Jomama- Johnson gone.


  224. aapl trying to move back over pp


  225. aapl popped thru pp and mark’s 8 & 34 indicators have flattened out !


  226. WFR-going out of business?


  227. Should I buy back short AAPL 175′s sold for 4 now 5.5?


  228. Woo hoo on XOM!  I’m ashamed to tell you how many puts I have as I ended up DD all the way to .68!   Still getting the hell out, glad for a profit!   Added more CVX puts at $1.10.

    AAPL/Bigs – Yes I would roll down as it’s the same premium with $3 more downside protection.


  229. haksaw – ahh the greatness of music.  It’s all good.  If we’re going the Ramones you need to throw in Television too then.  And the Devil Robert Johnson.  Dude, did you know Shia LaBoef has / is trying to buy rights to a Ramones movie?  Rad…


  230. just roll down the junes?  Or roll back to mays?


  231. Remember, the only reason the Dow is up is XOM and CVX, both at 2.5% rule, X also up big, GM up 10% – Imagine how bad the rest of the Dow must be doing…


  232. Anyone:  what is keystroke for finder?  Thanks.


  233. phil, what about picking up some long term WFR?


  234. Man this XOM market maker is a crook!  I put in a sell for 400 puts at $1 and immediately he raised XOM up over $94, the second I cancelled the sale he gave up and dropped it back down.  Now there should be some pent-up sales that will drop it back to $93.50 where I’ll get him to hold it again!  8-)


  235. phil,
    about half of dow is green, half red with c being down the most. why is c reacting this way ?


  236. Now I’m going to ask for $1.10


  237. marc
    ctrl f


  238. paradigms, thanks for the EWZ headsup.  Grabbed 1000 for 5 minutes and made $1500.  Should have been $3000, but got greedy.


  239. well aapl now back up btwn dow and nasdaq !


  240. See!  On the button!   There must be a law against this!  Ok, when he gets to $93.75 I’m going to cancel again.


  241. Mark

    What do you mean with ES? EnergySolutions, Inc.?
    Or ZB?
    Do you have any symbol for OXPS Prophet or Google Finance?

    Thanks


  242. Phil, when you got cold feet on XOM you not only turned me into a ST Trader, but a DAY trader.  I guess making $30 in a few minutes is not bad, but I’ve gotta avoid these 40% commissions. :-)


  243. Phil – In spite of your efforts I am not clear what are you doing with XOM puts. I see that as of 4/28/08 you had 90 May$90P in DTP and 60 Jan’09 $100P.
    @ 11:32 you said “…XOM is a day trade and if I make .25 I’m out, otherwise I’ll risk earnings…” That is your day trade goal –I-presume.
    @ 2:19 you said “…I am however buying more XOM $90 puts for .85 and I’ll give up if they hold $84 for more than 10 mins.” – This cannot be a DT in my opinion and is not a LT either.
    @ 2:38 you said “…I’m just going to get out on the pullback when I’m even I think, $4 is a long way from $90 and I need a $5 drop just to get even once the premium drops.  XXX “  
    @3:23 “..I have as I ended up DD all the way to .68!   Still getting the hell out, glad for a profit! …”
    OK in summary what have you done?


  244. Cancelled


  245. Thnx Singapore Steve


  246. Now we see who loses their nerve first!


  247. XOM PUTS- nice buy at the bottom.  .68 LOL
    PBR- Heeber said he liked it again on CNBC


  248. Alex – sorry brutha:

    ES = ESM8 = S&P 500 emini futures
    ZB = ZBM8 = US Treasury 30 year long bond futures. 

    Each system may look at different things, but these are both futures.  The generally move in opposite directions of each other, so you can watch where hte volume goes / comes from many times.


  249. sorry don’t mean "look at different things" writing too fast while trading here.  ES and ZB are the futures tickers in MOST trading systems.  FYI.


  250. What’s up kids, just checking in to make some adjustments, glad to see that Phil is in a pissing contest with someone…always a hoot.

    Mark, I’m looking hard at the QMM8′s right now on the drop.


  251. another aapl spike testing $178, be nice to know what they are really doing in these cases. should be some way to make $. hard to believe schwab’s lame story that somebody just made a mistake. mm’ s use this as a probe of some kind and then remove the order as a click mistake !!


  252. ooo, picking up some AAPL Jul 175′s
    adding some DE 85′s to my position


  253. Phil,
    Nice call on LFG,  I got out too early though.


  254. DDAY- I am glad it isn’t me today.  LOL.  How you doing still on Vacation?


  255. Hey Phil:  watchinhg you screw with this XOM market maker is worth the price of admission, very entertaining (and educational, or it would be if I actually understood what is going on),.
    I took two more very small put trades DIA May 130s and ALGN May 12.50s this morning in addition to the QQQQ Jun 46 puts I’ve been holding since last week just for insurance against the rest of my all bullish positions.  I think I’ll hold them over night in case we get our usual Thursday Thump tomorrow.  ALGN up 20% today, just too much on no big news other then a share buy back.


  256. dday – long oil eh!  man it’s come back nicely no?


  257. Eleven minutes left--here comes the money--go Phil!


  258. WFR – let’s wait and see what’s up.

    C was down anyway over capital raise.  Fed was no help to anyone but commodities and Najerian says that’s a "fools rally" right now on CNBC.

    XOM is  a great stock to day trade.  Bronek – XOM puts are out of the DTP, I’m just reporting my personal trading.  Don’t forget my STP is $3M so wen I trade 1,000 XOMs up and down I’m just messing around.  Right now I’m driving the poor MM nuts, which is real fun!  I may give advice like get out even, which is very good advice for normal people but I may then buy 1,000 more – this is not something I want anyone to do with their own money….

    Speaking of which, I took .85 for 1/2 as time is getting tight, now I can mess around back to .75 and still be out even.

    BBD – it’s easy to buy right at the bottom when I bought at $1.04, .98, .82 and .68.  If .52 would have been the bottom I would have bought then too!

    Ha, I’ve got you now sucker!

    LFG – worse than I thought!


  259. Oh yea, vacation is good, been travelling quite a bit..  I’m back home for now, I coach little league baseball…but I’m preparing for my Kentucky Derby bash I throw every year.  Just went and picked up a couple of briskets to throw on the smoker for Saturday morning.  I’ll have some freshly made Mint Juleps for anyone in the greater Montana area :)


  260. Mark,  crude has been treating me well.  I hardly trade any of the ES anymore because of the nice crude action.  I’m starting to get the hang of it more and more…and LIKING it lots.


  261. 100 at .90


  262. GOOG over 200 MA.


  263. A lot of selling presure on Lehman.


  264. Phil – XOM. Poor me. Now I have my head backwards. It was fun –though.


  265. dday – beautiful my friend.  futures are a BEAUTIFUL thing wouldn’t you say?  Love me some margin… ;)


  266. BBD – Are your Stars going to do the clean sweep in Hockey tonight??? I need to check the over/under.  I love playoff hockey.


  267. Any chance XOM will miss their number? Selling down into the close, maybe just Phil’s magic touch.


  268. Wow one whole day with no Bush bashing!!!


  269. dday – I’m not in the greater Montana are, but I want to have cocktails with you someday.  You sound like a character!
    In fact a lot of guys (and gals) here sould like they’d be a hoot to have a few drinks with.


  270. Mark – what do you do and how do I get your job? 
    You seem to be extremely relaxed for someone trading on behalf of others…kudos


  271. Done at about $105, still have 25 that are free rides but that was way more work than I like to do!

    Well that sure was a lot of work to get nowhere today!


  272. dday- I’m salivating like Pavlov’s dog. I made a smoker last year and I’m learning to make briskets. Marinate for about 5 days with a dry rub. My O My- sure am good!


  273. Mark
    Yes, very addictive.  I thought options were fun but I personally think futures are easier to play.


  274. XOM – I doubt they miss but I do think earnings won’t excite.

    Bush/Rebel – hey, that guys sucks!


  275. rebelatl – don’t get them started, the day isn’t over yet and Phil doesn’t need much reason to get cranked off on Bush!  ;-)


  276. well at least gw & uncle ben did not do some sort of tag team on the market today !!


  277. dday – went to the Stars game last night.  I can barely talk right now I screamed so loud. 

    cbtc – dear gawd that sounds good.

    Ryan – lot’s of POT my friend LOL.  I trade millions / billions… all sector / dollar neutral (natural hedging, no options / futures)… when you trade those amounts over time it becomes… a job?  boo hahahahaah like playing a video game with your pension plan money LOL.


  278. Greg
    Anytime pal.  I had drinks with BBD, Mark, JBL and aussie once in Dallas.  Was a good time and I hope to do it again with some more members in my travels.

    cbtc – check out the forums on http://www.virtualweberbullet.com.  Those are a great bunch of people that smoke food and share what they do.  Many of those cats smoke food in competitions as well.  I have met many of them and they can throw a helluva smokeout.


  279. LOL,  Still better than any Clinton aka" the guy who lost the nuclear bomb codes one day".


  280. Phil- XOM. After few days I have in my DTP May90P with base of @1.5. Any suggestion for tomorrow?


  281. Hey if he leaves me alone I leave him alone…  For a guy who promised to get government out of our lives, I’ve never seen more government!

    SBUX only as bad as we thought, it’s actually helping them…


  282. 15:05 *LAS VEGAS SANDS FALLS $8.22, OR 11%, TO $68 AT 4:04 PM NY
    15:04 *LAS VEGAS SANDS 1Q SANDS MACAU REVPAR $271             :LVS US
    15:04 *LAS VEGAS SANDS 1Q PALAZZO REVPAR $193                 :LVS US
    15:04 *LAS VEGAS SANDS 1Q VENETIAN LAS VEGAS REVPAR $250      :LVS US
    15:01 *LAS VEGAS SANDS 1Q EPS 7C ADJUSTED                      :LVS US

    15:01 *AKAMAI 1Q REVENUE GREW TO $187.0M                      :AKAM US
    15:01 *AKAMAI 1Q EPS 41C `NORMALIZED’                         :AKAM US
    15:01 *AKAMAI 1Q REVENUE $187M                               :AKAM US
    15:01 *AKAMAI 1Q REVENUE $187M                               :AKAM US


  283. QQQQ, DIA & SPYs all closed below Optraders famous 5MA today.  Glad I put a few puts on as partial cover.  Tomorrow could be ugly, and it is a Thursday too.


  284. 15:07 *PRUDENTIAL 1Q ADJUSTED OPERATING EPS $1.65; ANALYST EST. $1.82


  285. speaking of politics… let the games begin:

    April 30 (Bloomberg) — Hillary Clinton targeted oil
    companies that are “making out like bandits” on rising gasoline
    prices and said her proposed gas-tax moratorium was only the
    first step of a plan to end subsidies for producers.
    Campaigning in Indiana, which holds its presidential primary
    May 6, Democrat Clinton said her role model in taking on the oil
    industry is Republican President Teddy Roosevelt.
    “I have no illusions about how tough this will be,” the
    New York senator told about 30 employees of a steel products
    manufacturer in South Bend. “But you’ve got to start
    somewhere.”


  286. rebelatl - I figured out who the last world leader was to ignore the Genova Convention through a legal brief --Adolph Hitler during the invasion of the Soviet Union.  Um, so I guess the fact that we are now ignoring the G.C. is maybe not such a good thing--hey, maybe that’s why Europe is not as crazy about us as they used to be!!


  287. ROFL Bronek!  I suggest you got out with a small loss yesterday or this morning or even with a 30% loss just now but you now have an all or nothing bet on earnings in the morning!    On the bright side, at least they are $1 closer to your target than before. 

    LVS – very nice, that should get rid of our callers without too much damage….

    Occam – I think they are now called the "Geneva Guidlines" according to the Bush/Chenny Newspeak Dictionary.


  288. In response to Hitler’s revocation of Geneva Convention laws, Nazi Military Intelligence responded:  "fundamental provisions of international law demanded it was inadmissible to kill or maim prisioners.  Every belligerent has moreover the interest of ensuring that his own troops are protected from bad treatment if they are made prisioners of war."  
    -- it’s a pretty strange echo of similar legal opinions today


  289. Eric Schmidt doing a very good job stating the case for GOOG.  This guest spot explains why the stock was up so much today.  Probably a let-down if he says nothing new. 

    Hey Mark, do you guys have anything that tracks corporate media appearances during the days?  That would be a good list to play off!


  290. Ryan – just realized what I wrote sounded extremely cocky, and i’m not (I’m confident, but not cocky).  Frankly when I have sh*t to do I’m on here all day spamming the boards.  When you don’t see me on it’s b/c we’re working a big program or setting up trading for the next day (or traveling for clients).  We’re not salesmen (have those) or ops just sell side traders… so I wait until the business comes to us (nice).  When us traders ain’t trading we’re sitting around on facebook, blogs, etc… just shoot’n the sh*t.  When trading comes we don’t get up to use the restroom.  When the market closes we’re out the door 30 min later.  It is what it is. 

    Phil – hmmm… I’ll have to check on that, but wouldn’t be surprised if bloomie’s got something like that.


  291. James – TRN

    15:13 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES 2008 ANALYST EPS EST. $3.37         :TRN US
    15:13 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES 2Q ANALYST EPS EST. 86C             :TRN US
    15:13 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES 1Q ANALYST EPS EST. 73C             :TRN US
    15:09 Trinity Industries-TRN trading halted, pending news
    15:08 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES SEES YEAR EPS CONT OPS $3.20-$3.45  :TRN US
    15:08 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES SEES 2Q EPS CONT OPS 85C-90C        :TRN US
    15:05 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES 1Q EPS CONT OPS 81C                 :TRN US
    15:05 *TRINITY INDUSTRIES, 10% GROWTH IN EARNINGS FOR 1Q-BACKLOG IN
    15:05 Trinity Industries, Inc. Reports 10% Growth in Earnings for


  292. Phil – is there a any secret handshake or a font that indicate that a specific trade is you “messing” with a MM?


  293. Mark,
    I’m jealous you got to go to the Hockey game.  I might travel the next round to go to a game somewhere, I was hoping the Avs would win since Denver is drivable and my son wants to go….but that’s not happening.


  294. Mark – no worries. I am a fellow coxman.


  295. dday – got lucky really.  My associate here had an extra ticket… booya!

    Phil – found this but not sure if it’s what you’re looking for exactly.  All bloomie specific maybe (I can click on it and it’ll give me the "whatever" it is I’m looking for:

    5/ 1  7:00?14) US Nymex Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1  7:30?15) US Tyco Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1  7:30?16) US Comcast Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1  7:30?17) US Cigna Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1  7:30?18) US CVS Caremark Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1  8:30? 1) US Revlon Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1  9:10? 2) US Ore of ISM Discusses April U.S.Manufacturing Data
    5/ 1 10:00? 3) US Eastman Kodak Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 10:00? 4) US Exxon Mobil Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 10:00? 5) US Prudential Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 12:00? 7) US Pipas of Ford Reviews April U.S. Sales: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 12:00? 8) US AvalonBay Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 12:00? 9) US Murphy Oil Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 12:00?10) US FirstEnergy Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 12:30?11) US Clorox Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1 13:00?12) US Apache Executives Review Results: Teleconference
    5/ 1 13:00?13) US Marathon Oil Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 13:00?14) US GM Executives Discuss April U.S. Auto Sales
    5/ 1 13:30?15) US Tim Hortons Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 14:00?16) US Duke Realty Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 14:30?17) US Chrysler Executives Discuss April U.S. Auto Sales
    5/ 1 15:30?18) US Immunogen Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 15:30? 1) US Wynn Resorts Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 15:30? 2) US Sun Microsystems Executives Review Results
    5/ 1 16:00? 3) US Automatic Data Executives Review Results
    5/ 1 16:00? 4) US Cirrus Logic Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 16:00? 5) US KKR Financial Executives Review Results: Teleconf.
    5/ 1 16:00? 6) US Monster Executives Review Results: Teleconference

    Don’t forget I have these in CST time.


  296. Alright Happy Hour, CU kids.


  297. Any Hypermilers here? Lol

    Hypermiling can even make fuel-sipping gas-electric hybrid cars more efficient. Chuck Thomas, 50, a computer programmer from Lewisville, Texas, said he has been getting 71 mpg from his Honda Insight, a hybrid whose EPA rating is 58 mpg, in the two years since he has been hypermiling.

    Among Thomas’ techniques is "pulse and glide" in which he accelerates and then coasts with the engine off until around 15 mph when he kicks the engine back on and accelerates again. "It’s the automotive equivalent of skateboarding," he said.


  298. bush/hitler parallel is not outlandish- daedalus is the journal of the american academy of arts and sciences- probably the most sober and respected publication in the land- it’s not a place for hyperbole. sanford levinson is among the finest constitutional lawyer available (that’s y he writes in daedalus)

    i have the article somewhere but the main idea is that "there r no norms applicable to chaos"- which is a fancy way of saying leaders can do whatever they want when people the r scared.

    In the summer 2004 issue of Daedalus, constitutional law professor Sanford Levinson writes that Carl Schmitt, the leading Nazi German philosopher, is the real source of inspiration of the Bush regime. Prof. Alan Wolfe of Boston College described Schmitt as the intellectual guru of the Bush administration.

    fun fact- daedalus was icarus’ father who designed the wings. daedalus also built the labrynth to trap the minotaur.


  299. Anyone here watching the Chelsea-Liverpool game? Thats’ crazy!


  300. i was opt but got called in, whats the clock say?


  301. Film, Are you uncovering more AAPL now?


  302. Paulson Says U.S. `Closer to the End’ of Credit-Market Crisis
    By Peter Cook and John Brinsley
    April 30 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the credit crisis probably is more than half over and retained his forecast for the U.S. economy to keep growing.
    “We are closer to the end of this problem than we are to the beginning,” Paulson said in a Bloomberg Television interview today in Washington. “I also believe there inevitably will be some more bumps in the road before we get through this.”
    The Treasury chief said a government report today showing the economy grew 0.6 percent in the first three months of the year hadn’t altered his assessment. The figures indicated that only an increase in stockpiles of unsold goods prevented a contraction in the period.
    “Despite these headwinds and despite some of the things that we’re going through, this economy is still growing, albeit modestly,” Paulson said. He conceded that “we’re in a tough quarter right now.”


  303. Orion, I bought back in right after earnings into July 170′s and Oct 200′s.  I sold my July’s today.  My leaps have been and are staying uncovered unless we pop to 182.  The question for me is when to buy more.  Which I guess to some is uncovering.  But, I will be watching the indexes for signs that I need to chase it up here, but I think consolidation between 180 and 165 is on order for the next 2 weeks.  At 168 I will buy back my July’s and at 164, I will buy ATM June’s.  At 160 I will buy May’s.  I will also be expecting a rally the last 2-3 days of expiration.  When AAPL is trending up, it rallies into expiration Friday’s.


  304. Anyone know what the Circus Calendar Spread Strategy is?  Never heard of this one.


  305. Singapore…
    re: Circus Spread….
    Excellent opportunity to make a Washington Joke involving Clowns, Elephants, Donkeys, Balancing Acts and a Circus Ring leader that shall remain nameless….


  306. i was watching the chl/liv game when i was in the gym just now – was the clock really at 108min+??


  307. What’s going on with YHOO all of a sudden?


  308. Peter
    CBOE has a webinar on it.  I figure it must be something with 3 rings to it.


  309. Singapore….
    A google search led me to this enigmatic description…
    Circus Calendar Spreads are calendar spreads using high probability rolling strategies! (whatever that means!)
    I saw a brochure advertising a seminar in Las Vegas…It only costs $299,00 to find out what rolling strategies they are referring to….
    I’m sure Phil has probably heard of them….
    Well….speaking of Hockey..(I know we weren’t!), I’m off to see my beloved Montreal Canadiens beat the hated Philadelphia Flyers in game 4 of their playoffs, at a local establishment with a very large, high definition Television…


  310. Circus Calendar Spreads: Not sure what it is but my guess is that it is a fancy way of describing the P/L chart of a double calendar/diagonal spread (often referred to as a circus tent).
    Looks like CBOE has a seminar scheduled on 5/15 that discusses this strategy:
    http://www.cboeoptionsinstitute.com/aboutcboe/eventcalendar.aspx


  311. Rolling strategy .  That is what we do here.  That makes Phil our Ring Leader.  He’s going to love that.   CBOE  webinar is free.
    Hockey , I love hockey. Played some college and traveling goon hockey all over the midwest. It was just like the movie slap shot.



  312. Film, thanks for the strategy. Now that I’ve dealt all my POT  it’s time to focus on AAPL (fly and leaps)


  313. Mark – I was out and about during the big event (the FED and more) and missed the TRN results when you sent them so here is a belated THX.  Looks like they are up 3% AH.  Unfortunately, I decided NOT to play them.  However, I saw that turnaround on GRMN this morning and jumped on it for quick buck before lunch.I hated not having a screen in front of me at 2:15 but I have a new working gig and am going to need to get used to it.  I might sell TRN tomorrow as a DT (morning only) though, I just don’t have a lot of faith in them.  Any thoughts about Greenbrier (GBX)?  They might go up on the TRN report.


  314. Go Pens   3-0 vs ???? (who are those guys?)


  315. Phil,
    What’s your opinion on ICE ahead of earnings?


  316. Seriously, how are you going to beat this guy in a debate?  He is going to win in a landslide.

    http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/gasprices1


  317. Well, Firefox apparently can’t find the site, so no neat link tricks for you all.

    Do you see the trade in this?  I think I have a good one.
    http://www.japanprobe.com/?p=1678)

    Very important AAPL news:  http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/warner_bros_to_release_movies_for_apple_tv_on_day_and_date_of_dvd_release/


  318. Somewhat unsual to find this in ComputerWorld…
    ISRG
    Report: For heart surgery, robot beats a surgeon


  319. Anyone around?


  320. am here


  321. dittos


  322. Hey Phil, I tried http://www.inspectd.com.  I got to $308K in 11 trades.  At 21 trades, I was up to $550K.  But, after 31 trades, I settled at $458K.  That is a fun site.


  323. Film – Nice! How much capital did you commit to each trade and what the time frame?


  324. Good Morning everyone.

    UK down slightly this morning -0.2%. Dollar a bit stronger against the pound.

    Rest of Europe on holiday today so I think things will be a bit slow.  US futures seem flat everywhere.


  325. The Bank of England thinks banks are overstating their losses.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7375881.stm


  326. Here we go!

    7:01 *EXXON MOBIL 1Q EPS $2.03; ANALYST EST. $2.13            :XOM US
    7:01 *EXXON MOBIL 1Q REVENUE $116.85B                         :XOM US
    7:00 *EXXON MOBIL 1Q NET $10.89B                              :XOM US
    7:00 *EXXON MOBIL 1Q EPS $2.03                                :XOM US


  327. XOM missed!


  328. 7:04 *EXXON LIQUIDS PRODUCTION 1Q 2,474 KBD, DOWN 272 KBD     :XOM US
    7:03 *EXXON OIL EQUIVALENT BASIS PRODUCTION DOWN 5.6%         :XOM US
    7:03 *EXXON SEES PEAK OUTPUT FROM MONDO/SAXI/BATUQUE 200,000 BOE/D
    7:03 *EXXON 1Q UPSTREAM EARNINGS $8.79B                       :XOM US
    7:03 *EXXON FALLS 2.1% TO $91.13 AT 8:02 A.M. IN NEW YORK


  329. XOM:: You would think this would be around 85 .. instead it is around 91 :(

    MUR: why isnt there a reactio to earnings?


  330. dilbert. XOM increased their dividend 14% to 40c. Might be one reason.


  331. All you commies wearing RED and doing the highstep to work??


  332. simmer down mccarthy


  333. XOM
    If I were them I’d have done everything possible to keep earnings down given the political climate.  Better to keep buying back shares and increasing the dividend.


  334. Commies?
    Some of my best friends from the People’s Republic of Cambridge wear the red armband.  Of course around here they could be Bloodsor Crips.


  335. rebelatl – what?  I agree with FILM, you are funny.


  336. DB
    Bank earnings…Dick Bove (bank analyst) was on this morning.  He indicated $16 of $30 billion written down in Q1 by the largest U.S. banks is vapor i.e. increased reserves.  Just think of the impact if they can write-up a portion of this in the future.



  337. fred – was just about to saying something to DB on that.  I mentioned early last quarter this would be a GREAT time for a "big wash".  If I were a company, and the whole market was selling off, I’d get rid of all my losses all at once and just lay it on the line.  Then you look like a champion comeback king next earnings… just sayin.


  338. I did the same thing at http://www.inspected.com .  Each trade is $100K that rolls over and is for a 20 day time frame, as it grows you invest the aggregated balance, (the whole account).  Lot’s of fun.  I stopped when they asked me to register, but I think it’s free anyway.


  339. fred, you can just keep hitting the close window button.  I went up to 50 trades without registering.  I was on the default settings, too.

    What happened to the dollar?