Well, I’m out today with a family emergency.
Looks like a crazy day ahead. If the market can’t get it together with oil back at $120, I don’t know what’s going to help. Nobody thinks the Fed will tighten so nice surprise if they do (and nasty surprise for commodities too). Let’s keep in mind that we were at 10,800 on the Dow 2 weeks ago so holding 11,200 is good in the grand scheme of things and 11,100 was pretty much the floor last week.
On the S&P we look OK over 1,235, NYSE already in trouble at 8,250 so look for them to break first and the Nas needs to hold 2,260 or we have problems. Not that holding those pathetic levels means we don’t still have problems but it’s better than nothing. I’m setting up for a cover with DIA $116 puts, now $3.67 if we lose two of those levels and until we get them back as they have low premiums and I can cover them with $113 or $112 puts if I have to and then roll them back a month. In the LTP, it’s just faster and more flexible than covering individual positions.
Asia is going to get killed on the commodity sell-off but if Japan holds it together, that willl be a good sign. It is possible that commodities are tumbling because word is out that all the CB’s will be tightening in synch but that may just be wishful thinking on my part…
Have fun today, I’ll try to touch base later.
– Phil
