Top Trades & Earnings (7/22/2026)
Timeline
0:00 – Market perspective, patience, and investment timeframes
3:05 – Cyclical stocks and market rhythms
9:32 – Allegiant Travel (ALGT) trade review
15:04 – Planning for major stock moves and managing risk
19:13 – “Be the house” and the gambler’s fallacy
25:04 – Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) trade strategy
38:11 – Nike’s valuation and business strategy
46:26 – Top Trades portfolio review
50:25 – First-half 2026 Top Trades
59:38 – Changes to Top Trade recommendations and follow-ups
1:07:28 – Nike trade review and “buy low” strategy
1:12:56 – AGI Roundtable and finding actionable trades
1:15:01 – Pharmaceutical tariffs and Biogen
1:20:32 – Tesla earnings expectations
1:21:08 – IBM earnings trade
1:25:03 – Google, Reddit, and AI data licensing
1:28:08 – DigitalOcean and AI infrastructure pricing
1:29:04 – FTAI gas-turbine order
1:30:35 – AMD–Anthropic financing arrangement
1:36:29 – Monday.com layoffs
1:37:07 – Nike’s China strategy
1:41:49 – Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR)
1:42:10 – AI hacking and inadequate guardrails
1:54:21 – Cybersecurity investment thesis
1:57:00 – $700-a-Month Portfolio and margin rules
Transcript
Perspective, and Why a "Big Move" Isn't What It Used to Be
Perspective is always a problem — it's a lifetime problem for human beings. I grew up in the '70s and '80s, when the Dow was around 1,000. So when I see a 100-point move on the Dow today, it's baked into my brain that that's a big deal. It's not. The Dow is now at 52,000. A 100-point move now is like a two-point move back when I was a kid — the index is 50 times larger than it was when I was growing up. We're all victims of that kind of thing. It's true of a lot of things — temperature, time in general.
Think about it: when you're a little kid and someone tells you something is happening next week, you feel like you can't wait.
