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Monday Market Maelstrom

Well, it looks like Gustav is heading right for New Orleans.

3 years almost to the day after Katrina it’s about 65 miles south of the city (7:30 am) moving at about 16mph with winds as high as 115mph, luckily "only" a category 3.  The leading edge of the storm is just hitting the city, which has been pretty much emptied this time in a massive weekend evacuation.  Pretty much all of our gulf coast oil production has been shut down (1Mbd) as is about 10% of the US refining capacity (about 2mbd), neither is likely to be a factor unless an actual refinery is damaged or if the port is damaged and shut for a prolonged period of time.

That will all depend on how well the Bush administration did in rebuilding the levee system in New Orleans which is getting hit by it’s third "Storm of the Century" in 36 months, most likely due to that global warming that Bush/McCain still say does not exist.  Oil prices rose $2.54 to $118 in early trading but the storm is looking like a disasppointment for the oil bulls and oil fell back to $114.78 at about 7am. 

 

IN PROGRESS


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  1. Hi – Phil. Well we’re not all on holiday. It’s a working day in the UK. Hope you enjoy your day off. The UK is quiet, down 0.55%, off the lows of the day. And , as I said earlier, the US dollar is having a field day against the UK pound. Now at 1.800 up over 2 cents.


  2. Oil futures selling off sharply now – October contract down to 110.75


  3. Oil $110!  LOL….  Well, that’s what we figured would happen if the hurricane wasn’t devastating – now let’s hope the market responds as we expected as well.


  4. We might have to wait till tomorrow to see that 110 level being cracked!
    You can get the real time quotes for crude contracts here ..
    http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/


  5. what up peoples?

    looks like the only damage gustav will leave in his wake r the crude longs.

    category 2…could hurt u really bad, but nothing like katrina and the LA folks r so hyper aware of hurricanes right now that they surely prepared very well for this (lets hope).

    anyway…down w/ crude


  6. interesting blog run by an economist- pretty cool stuff…overcomingbias.com. small sample

    Yesterday I described three classes of deep problem with qualitative-physics-like strategies for building nice AIs – e.g., the AI is reinforced by smiles, and happy people smile, therefore the AI will tend to act to produce happiness.  In shallow form, three instances of the three problems would be:

    1. Ripping people’s faces off and wiring them into smiles;
    2. Building lots of tiny agents with happiness counters set to large numbers;
    3. Killing off the human species and replacing it with a form of sentient life that has no objections to being happy all day in a little jar.

    And the deep forms of the problem are, roughly:

    1. A superintelligence will search out alternate causal pathways to its goals than the ones you had in mind;
    2. The boundaries of moral categories are not predictively natural entities;
    3. Strong optimization for only some humane values, does not imply a good total outcome.

    But there are other ways, and deeper ways, of viewing the failure of qualitative-physics-based Friendliness strategies.

    Every now and then, someone proposes the Oracle AI strategy:  "Why not just have a superintelligence that answers human questions, instead of acting autonomously in the world?"

    Sounds pretty safe, doesn’t it?  What could possibly go wrong?


  7. sushi peoples

    Two high school students … took on a freelance science project in which they checked 60 samples of seafood using a simplified genetic fingerprinting technique to see whether the fish New Yorkers buy is what they think they are getting.  They found that one-fourth of the fish samples with identifiable DNA were mislabeled.  A piece of sushi sold as the luxury treat white tuna turned out to be Mozambique tilapia, a much cheaper fish that is often raised by farming.  Roe supposedly from flying fish was actually from smelt.  Seven of nine samples that were called red snapper were mislabeled, and they turned out to be anything from Atlantic cod to Acadian redfish, an endangered species.


  8. $100 oil price – Iran’s oil minister said on Sunday $100 a barrel was the lowest acceptable price for crude oil.
    Check the comments:


  9. Gustav now a Category 1 hurricane. Hopefully it will be a tropical storm soon. Good for us, bad for the evil bastards at GS, MS and OPEC.


  10. Well this all seems pretty good to me.  Minimal storm damage, decimated oil markets, day one of the Republican convention practically cancelled… lots of fun!  Hope you guys are all having a good day, my weekend was nice and relaxing.  Let’s hope Asia turns it around this evening so we can build up a little momentum into our open.


  11. ramana – I have seen some reports that there are 14 full supertankers in Irans ports with no destination for delivery. They no longer have the leverage to push prices higher. It will be interesting to see how they unwind the building oversupply of oil.


  12. Test