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Friday, May 3, 2024

Exhausted?

Alan Brochstein shares with us an amazing table, and without knowing the numbers prior to seeing this, certainly, the daily swings in the market have been incredible.  

Why You are Exhausted

Courtesy of Alan Brochstein at AB Analytical Services.

If you are like me, you probably feel like you are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.  I know that things are volatile, but this table of the S&P 500 over the past year sure puts things in perspective:

 

Extreme VolatilityDownload extreme_volatility.jpg

Note that five of the past six DAYS have had a bigger percentage range than the typical month this year.  To put things in perspective, July, which was an interim bottom, wouldn’t make it in the top 1/2 of the list if it were just a day in October.  Anyone remember the Bear Stearns’ implosion in March?  That whole MONTH was an average DAY in October.

What are we to make of this extreme volatility?  Besides the fact that we can all be both geniuses and idiots in the course of a day, one has to question the long-term implications for equity investors.  Of course the market will eventually calm down, but how long will it take for retail investors to regain their confidence in the market place?  With many hedge funds shuttering or moving to the sidelines, it could take a while before liquidity in stocks is restored.  So, while I don’t think we should count on many more 10% intraday moves, I do expect a lot of choppiness over the balance of the quarter.

Disclosure:  No stocks mentioned.

 

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