Archive for 2008

Repeat the Past

Here’s an article from Financial Armageddon discussing the possibility that this time, it’s going to be worse, citing a piece from the Financial Times, "It Can Be Worse than the Great Depression." Courtesy of Michael Panzner.

Repeat the Past (and then Some)?

In a post I wrote last Tuesday, "Worse this Time," I highlighted reasons set forth by Jim Rawles over at as to why the current downturn could more than rival the one that took place nearly 80 years ago.

As it happens, it isn’t only bloggers who are discussing this possibility. Even some mainstream commentators are questioning the assumption that we are not doomed to repeat the past (and then some).

In an Op-Ed piece for the Financial Times’ Economists’ Forum, "It Can Be Worse than the Great Depression," Anders Aslund, an economist and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, offers up other reasons why the optimists might want to reconsider.

This is the worst global asset bubble and financial panic since the Great Depression of 1929–33. Still, almost all argue that it cannot become equally bad, because we have learned those lessons.

Analytically, that statement does not hold. True, our policymakers are not likely to repeat the same mistakes of the Great Depression, but they may commit other mistakes. Bank deposit insurance has come to stay for good, but not all advances represent progress, and many create new vulnerabilities.

One 1930s mistake was to defend exchange rates by all means. Today, most exchange rates float freely. Right now, we are seeing an unprecedented US dollar surge, which is not warranted by fundamentals but reflects a desperate search for a safe haven. The new hazard might be excessive and destabilizing exchange rate fluctuations caused by financial panic. If so, the major financial powers need to intervene to stabilize exchange rates.

Milton Friedman attacked the Fed for allowing the nominal monetary supply to contract sharply during the Depression, and John Maynard Keynes argued for more public expenditures through budget deficits, while the prevailing policy was budget surplus. The monetary expansion and budget deficits may become excessive this time.

Deficit spending and monetary expansion are supposed to boost demand, but people spend less in a financial panic, rendering increased public expenditures rather ineffective. We learned the limitation of Keynesianism in the 1970s. In

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World’s Most Efficient Solar Cells

Here’s a report, courtesy of Mish, on the most efficient solar cells created yet:

World’s Most Efficient Solar Cells Created

In the land down under, comes some positive news on the energy front: World’s most efficient solar cells created.

The University of New South Wales’ ARC Photovoltaic Centre of Excellence has reported the first silicon solar cell to achieve the milestone of 25 per cent efficiency.

The UNSW ARC Photovoltaic Centre of Excellence already held the world record of 24.7 per cent for silicon solar cell efficiency. Now a revision of the international standard by which solar cells are measured, has delivered the significant 25 per cent record to the team led by Professors Martin Green and Stuart Wenham and widened their lead on the rest of the world.

Professor Green said the jump in performance leading to the milestone resulted from new knowledge about the composition of sunlight. “Since the weights of the colours in sunlight change during the day, solar cells are measured under a standard colour spectrum defined under typical operational meteorological conditions,” he said.

“Improvements in understanding atmospheric effects upon the colour content of sunlight led to a revision of the standard spectrum in April. The new spectrum has a higher energy content both down the blue end of the spectrum and at the opposite red end with, dare I say it, relatively less green.”

Dr Anita Ho-Baillie, who heads the Centre’s high efficiency cell research effort, said the UNSW technology benefited greatly from the new spectrum “because our cells push the boundaries of response into the extremities of the spectrum”.

“Blue light is absorbed strongly, very close to the cell surface where we go to great pains to make sure it is not wasted. Just the opposite, the red light is only weakly absorbed and we have to use special design features to trap it into the cell,” she said.

Professor Green said: “These light-trapping features make our cells act as if they were much thicker than they are. This already has had an important spin-off in allowing us to work with CSG Solar to develop commercial ‘thin-film’ silicon-on-glass solar cells that are over 100 times thinner than conventional silicon cells.”

First Solar Thermal Plant in 20 Years Launches in CA

CleanTechnica is reporting First Solar Thermal Plant in 20 Years Launches in CA

By turning

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Zeitgeist: Federal Reserve

Tim Iacono at The Mess That Greenspan Made posted a portion of the longer Zeitgeist Movie, the Federal Reserve, on his blog.  It has interesting account of the history of the Federal Reserve, and then a bit of conspiracy theory. 

Zeitgeist – The Movie: Federal Reserve

After watching what has happened over the last year, it seems that conspiracy theorists give central bankers way too much credit for being able to manage things.


From Wikipedia:

The third part is called "Don’t Mind the Men Behind the Curtain", a reference to the 1939 film The Wizard of Oz. The four main wars of the United States’ 20th century are argued by the film to have been started or engaged in purely to further the economic strength of a group of men. Events attempted to be exposed as fraudulent or staged are the sinking of the RMS Lusitania, the Attack on Pearl Harbor, and the Gulf of Tonkin Incident; all occurrences which carried the U.S into the First World War, Second World War and Vietnam War respectively.

According to the film, the U.S. was forced by the Federal Reserve Bank to become embroiled in these wars not to win but to sustain conflict, as it forces its government to borrow more money from the bank, with interest attached, thereby increasing the nation’s debt and the profits of those who own The Fed. The film gives a history of the Reserve, claiming it engineered the Great Depression to steal wealth from the American population and was responsible for the attempts to assassinate Louis McFadden, a congressman who attempted to impeach the Reserve.

This section also explores the possibility that there is a clandestine movement, promoted by the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, to usurp the American constitution and US dollar, by merging the United States, Canada and Mexico into a North American Union that uses a single currency, the Amero, without the ratification of Congress. This currency union would create a super-state similar to the European Union, which together with the African Union and the proposed Asian Union would gradually be merged into a One World government. The movie concludes that under such a government, every human could be implanted with a RFID microchip which would be used to monitor individuals

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Face to Face

Here’s an update the progress of banks and homeowners facing foreclosures.  Courtesy of Michael Steinberg at Click Broker. 

JP Morgan Meets WaMu Homeowners Face to Face

Three cheers for JP Morgan (JPM)! I recently wrote "Banks Need to Show Respect to Delinquent Homeowners", complaining that Wells Fargo (WFC) was using third party non-profit organizations to assist in mortgage modifications, instead of dealing directly with their customers. The courts forced Bank of America (BAC) to deal directly with Countrywide mortgagees and FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair has led the way with IndyMac Federal Bank. Now Bloomberg “JPMorgan to Modify Mortgages to Limit Foreclosures” is reporting that JP Morgan will deal directly with Washington Mutual’s delinquent homeowners. (Bloomberg update.)

It is only fitting that JP Morgan shows deference to Bair when the FDIC gifted them with WaMu the bank, without the excess baggage and debt of WaMu the bank holding company. Bair has been far more vocal in demanding social responsibility and accountability from their bank merger beneficiaries than either Treasury Secretary Paulson or Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has shown better political acuity than his mega bank colleagues. Dimon has already taken his WaMu markdowns and has no need to hide behind HOPE NOW.

JP Morgan is establishing 24 counseling centers to assist WaMu customers face to face in high delinquency areas. The two year program is expected to modify $70B in mortgages for 400,000 families. JP Morgan claims it has already modified $40B in mortgages for 250,000 families. They will also donate or substantially discount 500 (of what are probably worthless) homes to community groups.

The program is limited to WaMu customers “showing willingness to pay” that “intend to honor their commitments”. WaMu’s “Need Help with Your Mortgage?” web page has the “Borrower Assistance Form” where customers can explain their circumstances. In homage to the Paulson-Bernanke team’s love of the opaque, JP Morgan does reveal its negotiating guidelines. The customer does not know in advance the rules of this game which is demeaning. In this case, JP Morgan is coming up short of Bair at IndyMac.

Disclosure: Author is long BAC and WFC.


Reminder:  Continue ignoring the 48 hour delay box, all articles in this section are immediately available and reprinted on the backup site along with our blogroll and place for comments. - Ilene


Crisis Approaching

Weekend reading; something to think about.  – Ilene

Crisis Approaching

"We may congratulate ourselves that this cruel war is nearing its end.  It has cost a vast amount of treasure and blood. . . .  It has indeed been a trying hour for the Republic; but I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. I feel at this moment more anxiety for the safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war. God grant that my suspicions may prove groundless."

The passage appears in a letter from Lincoln to (Col.) William F. Elkins, Nov. 21, 1864.

Source:  Excerpt from an essay by Rick Crawford. 

Why am I posting this?  My friend Elliott Eldrich sent me an email (below) which led me to do a search on the above quote.  We were discussing politics and the financial crisis.

Worst Supreme Court Decision ever, according to Elliott:

"County of Santa Clara vs. Southern Pacific Railroad."  You can read about it here.

From the wikipedia article:  "Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific Railroad Company, 118 U.S. 394 (1886) was a United States Supreme Court case dealing with taxation of railroad properties. The case is most notable for the obiter dictum statement that juristic persons are entitled to protection under the Fourteenth Amendment."

This was the beginning of the end for America. Once corporate personhood became established, the Republic was mortally wounded. As President Lincoln (himself a lawyer for the railroads early in his career, that’s how he made his money and was able to get started in politics) once wrote in a letter, "I see a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned. An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until
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Employee Bonuses

Andrew Horowitz has expressed his feelings on the outrageous plans for the bailout money to be spent on bonuses for individuals within the entities that have played such a large role in creating the global financial crisis.  With all the other additions to the bailout bill, there’s really no excuse for neglecting to prohibit the money from being spent on bonuses and pensions.

$50 billion of bailout going to employee bonuses

Courtesy of Andrew Horowitz, The Disciplined Investor 

As if the economic bailout by U.S. taxpayers isn’t enough to make you sick to your stomach, new information has come to light that several banks are planning to pay billions of dollars in year-end bonuses from the bailout funds they received.  Investigations are beginning into the nine banks that took in the first $125 billion -- the same $125 billion that was supposed to be used to unclog the credit system which was preventing banks from providing much needed funds for individuals and businesses.

There are many feathers in a ruffle over this and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and several congressmen are furious that over $20 billion has already been earmarked as bonus funds for management and employees. Unbelievably, that is just the estimates from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. There are six more banks that are also working on similar heists.

Here is their rationale for using that money: It is reported that the financial industry pays base salaries in the range of $80,000 to $600,000 and apparently that is simply not enough to keep some of the best and brightest working to keep their companies profitable. It seems that if they were paid only this meager amount, the company would risk mass defections. That would be a real problem…or would it?

Maybe it is time to peg annual bonuses to something meaningful like profitability. As I recall, not only are these the firms that have been losing money (as is evident by the need for a massive multi-billion dollar bailout) but they have also been shown to be the creators of securitization, derivatives, sub-prime mortgages and other toxic credit that is the root cause of this historic global economic catastrophe!

Maybe I am being too harsh? Perhaps management is entitled to hundreds of millions in bonuses for the hard work they do, day in and day out. You have to feel sorry
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Up 1,000 Points Weekly Wrap-Up

3-nov-v1.jpgWell, this was certainly better than last week!

In last weekend's wrap-up we noted the market could go either way and, after a poor start on Monday, we really pulled it together and ended up tacking on (officially) 947 Dow points (11.2%) – most of them (890) coming on Tuesday!  The "good" week did not quite save us from a terrible month where the MSCI World Index fell 19.1%, Emerging Markets Fell 27%, the S&P dropped 17% and the CRB fell 22%.  Even gold dropped 18.5%, the biggest monthly loss since 1983 so we need to keep this week's run in perspective until we see some real follow-through as we enter the traditional Santa Clause Rally season.

Yes the markets were oversold but the question now is – how oversold as there is very clear evidence of declining global growth which has popped the commodity bubble but also popped the Chicago PMI all the way down to 37.8 for October (down from 56.7 in September) and our GDP turned negative (-0.3%) for the first time since poppa Bush held office in 1991 so congrats to GW for getting this one in just under the wire!  Sadly, we are not alone in our suffering as the global picture is falling apart along with Japan (who has led the downturn) and the US (see chart below):

Even worse than the GDP data, is the Real Per Capita Personal Income which fell an amazing 9.6% in Q3, the largest decline since 1949.  This led to a decline in the PCE of 0.3%, news which the markets shook off on Friday and my concern is that the markets were poised to paint a gain on Friday and nothing was going to stop them but what will a weekend of reflection bring?

Last weekend, we didn't get any major government action to prop up the markets and the futures were limit down in the US on Monday morning.  We recovered nicely from that and finished the day down "just" 200 points and we spend the rest of the week trying to get back to the highs of October 21st but still less than halfway back to where we opened the month on most indexes.  I pointed…
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Carnival’s dividend suspension sends option volatility raging and shares to five-year low

Today’s tickers: CCL, AXP, WFC, HUM, PG, BUD, HIG & PRU

CCL – Carnival Corp. – It’s a pretty nasty squall economically speaking and cruise-line companies must be wondering about the affordability of winter cruises as well as the prospects for 2009. Today Miami-based Carnival announced the suspension of its first quarter dividend, which will save the company $1.3 billion. However, the statement highlighted the desperate straits ahead that will require the skilful and precise captainship of management to avoid the rocks. It’s hard to raise cash at present. Consumers are staying at home and one would imagine that luxury items such as cruise trips could easily be foregone. Investors punished Carnival despite its strong cash flow position for today’s prudence and sent shares lower by 16.6% to $24.00. Option investors were quick to pounce and chose to secure selling rights at the 22.5, 25.0 and 27.5 lines in November, while an equally large block of 1,195 contracts was bought at the December 22.5 line where only 263 positions existed ahead of today’s reading. Greater uncertainty surrounding the outlook gave option traders reason to boost implied volatility by 27% to 94% today as shares reached the lowest value in five years. It’s not all doom and gloom though as the well out-of-the-money calls are still trading to investors expecting a rebound. Today buyers lapped up calls at the 40.0 strike in December.

AXP – American Express – Shares in credit card lender Amex have been languishing at low levels lately and are rallying a small amount in response to a 10% reduction in workforce yesterday. Option traders today sense that a weaker share price might be ahead as they deploy defensive put option positions in the January contract. Amex has reported diminishing profits in the face of increasingly difficult conditions for consumers to repay credit card debt. There now faces the real possibility that credit card portfolio underperformance might deliver a ratings downgrade and push up the cost of wholesale funding at the company and further erode profitability. In the December contract, with shares trading at $27.75, investors bought the 17.5/25 put spread at a net premium of 2.40. That transaction in about 10,000 contracts involves the sale of the 17.5 strike and simultaneous purchase of the higher 25 strike. The maximum profit on the trade is 5.1 should shares fall to the lower strike by expiration.

WFC – Wells
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Spooky Friday Morning

I'm no longer apologizing for being skeptical into the rallies.

Yesterday was tough as I made a series of bearish calls in the afternoon as the Dow hit 9,200 which were ingenious at 3:45 as the Dow broke 9,050 but had us very nervous as the Dow went right back to 9,200 just 10 minutes later.  Still, we held fast as I have my overwhelming concern that the weekend will arrive as scheduled this afternoon and we have a tough data day today and, most importantly – we STILL have not made our levels.  A buy program or a sell program can only move the market so far until it runs into real resistance and that's what we take full advantage of with our intra-day trading.

David Fry summed up yesterday's action perfectly: "Yep, it was that kind of day. Was there any good news to account for an up day? Absolutely nothing, unless you think the GDP data falling a little less than expected was something to place bets on.  Nope, the market is just oversold and this is the end-of-month prop job mutual funds and a few others need…  So desperate are bullish tape painters they ignored San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen’s statement that “…recent economic data is deeply worrisome and the economy is likely to contract significantly in the fourth quarter.” Sure, that’s really bullish!"  I also strongly recommend linking to David's column as he has a great series of charts that give a nice overview of where we are at the moment.

We have some very scary Personal Income and Spending data hitting us at 8:30 followed by the downwardly creepy Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the gloomy Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October, which may be revised below 50, more than 10% down from September.  Also sending chills down my spine was a WSJ story on the conference of the Turnaround Management Association, who are expecting a banner year in '09.  "We're all salivating. Wait. Don't say that," said one bankruptcy lawyer. "This is clearly the most devastating economic situation I've seen in my 40 years. I would say there is some distress even among the distressed-debt community," said Henry Miller, co-founder of the turnaround firm Miller Buckfire. Revenue is up by about one-third this year, he said. "Many of the patients are getting to us
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Spreading the Wealth Around

With elections coming up and differences in economic philosophies being highlighted by recent events, the words "spreading the wealth around" sound like the beginning of a political post.  Except this topic goes well beyond political ideology and into basic core beliefs about human beings. 

So, here are a few excerpts from some recent articles I stumbled across at a website called Philosophy of Genetics by Will Frehley.

Spreading the wealth around


It’s human nature to believe you’re responsible for your own success.  So successful people resist any sort of government action that appears to resemble "redistribution of wealth" in the form of imposing higher taxes on the wealthy and providing subsidies and social programs for the poor.

If it could be proved with certainty that people with higher drive, energy, passion, charisma and intelligence are born that way, then most people would probably agree that government redistribution of wealth was fair.  Having these characteristics would often (although not always) lead to success, in the form of higher pay and social status.

 However, most people don’t believe there are innate differences in talent.  For the most part, people think we’re all responsible for our own success…

But in reality, we’re not only born with innate ways of understanding the world (and our strong belief in "free will" is one of those), but we also differ amongst each other…

…Ironically, we humans may never understand ourselves, if our capacity for self-understanding is itself innate (and inaccurate).  Our common sense and intuition evolved not for truth and rational understanding, but for survival of the species.  [My emphasis.]  That’s why there’s no moral outrage at the genetic inequity, because we’re not designed to consider it.

Full article here. 


Economics and Genetics

Where do our choices come from?

I’d tell you, but you’d probably disagree.  Most people are not hardwired to understand themselves.  Although we’re really genetic beings reacting to other genetic beings, we don’t see it that way.  We think of ourselves as rational actors, acting in response to other rational actors.

Most people think we have freedom of choice, to do anything we want.  The problem is, we don’t (and can’t) chose our “wants” themselves.  They are part of who we are, as genetic beings.  Our genes are not something we have.  They are something we are

As with quantum physics, it seems impossible to step outside the system to
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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid


Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...

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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...

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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.


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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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