Archive for April, 2010

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

Caution: Greatly Overvalued Stocks in the News

Courtesy of Ockham Research’s The Razor’s Edge 

As a long term focused valuation methodology, Greatly Overvalued is the most negative rating we can have on a stock.  In our view, this rating means one of two things: either the stock is too hot and has risen too quickly, or the stock has seen deterioration in underlying fundamentals that have not yet been reflected in their stock.  Just because a stock is overvalued doesn’t mean that it is due for a slide, but rather we think that it is not an attractive buy candidate and may be ripe for taking profits.  Essentially, these stocks are trading for higher levels of price-to-cash earnings and price-to-sales (among other fundamental valuation metrics) than has been normal throughout their recent history.

At Ockham, we recently released a new stock screening tool on our site that we now use daily around the office to more efficiently wade through our coverage of over 8400 stocks.  One interesting filter we used today was to see stocks that have our Greatly Overvalued rating, and also have been mentioned in the financial media within the last 30 days according to RazorWire.  These stocks represent a subset of our most negative ratings that are also attracting some attention lately either because of earnings releases or some other reason to be mentioned on business television or influential financial blogs.

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I am aware that the image of the screener is too small to read, so the list has been recreated below.  These stocks come from a variety of sectors but the highest concentration is in Basic Materials, Consumer Goods (particularly auto-related), and Energy sectors.  We are not saying investors in these stocks need to sell and plant their money on the sidelines, but it may be worthwhile to reexamine exit strategies because their prices have become a bit too stretched based on current fundamentals.  So, here are the 18 stocks that met the criteria listed in order of largest capitalization to smallest.

Greatly Overvalued Stocks with at least one RazorWire Capture in the Last 30 Days:

  1. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
  2. ArcelorMittal (MT)
  3. Caterpillar (CAT)
  4. Johnson Controls (JCI)
  5. PACCAR, Inc (PCAR)
  6. Vornado Realty (VNO)
  7. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
  8. Eaton Corporation (ETN)
  9. Fidelity National Info Services (FIS)
  10. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
  11. Cree, Inc. (CREE)
  12. Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)
  13. BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA)
  14. Autoliv, Inc. (ALV)
  15. M.D.C.


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Goldman Sachs Gets Thrown in the Briar Patch by the DoJ

Goldman Sachs Gets Thrown in the Briar Patch by the DoJ

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

First, before you read the WSJ bit, check out this video. It will put everything into context nicely.


(is that Eddie Murphy as Br’er Fox?!)

Finding out that a lather can easily be worked up in response to a regulatory bitchslap, the Department of Justice will be next to line up against Goldman Sachs, sort of like the couples skate of regulation. Awww!

WSJ:

Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. or its employees committed securities fraud in connection with its mortgage trading, people familiar with the probe say.

The investigation from the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s Office, which is at a preliminary stage, stemmed from a referral from the Securities and Exchange Commission, these people say. The SEC recently filed civil securities-fraud charges against the big Wall Street firm and a trader in its mortgage group. Goldman and the trader say they have done nothing wrong and are fighting the civil charges.

Prosecutors haven’t determined whether they will bring charges in the case, say the people familiar with the matter. Many criminal investigations are launched that never result in any charges.

Line up and get a piece while rage against the big bankers has reached its breaking point: the regulators are so desperate to get your respect back, they’re trying to take down the largest piece of prey they can find.

Before you let them park a wooden horse in your driveway, make sure you check the trunk for termites. 


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Is the Market Resting For Another Bullish Move?

Courtesy of Market Tamer

Improve Your Market Timing: The Bullish Engulfing Pattern

  • The Bullish Engulfing Pattern is a bullish reversal pattern and is considered a major candlestick formation.
  • The pattern is most effective when found at the bottom of a downtrend.
  • The pattern represents a change in investor sentiment and is characterized by an initial gap down from the prior trading day.
  • The stock will not follow through with the initial gap and will begin to trade up on increased volume.
  • The mature pattern will end the session with a close above the prior session’s open, thus engulfing the prior session’s real body.
  • The pattern is considered stronger when the stock trades up from a larger gap down and if it not only engulfs the real body but the entire trading range of the prior session.
  • Sometimes you will see a situation when the Bullish Engulfing Pattern wraps around and engulfs several prior sessions and that is a very convincing reversal scenario.
  • The Pattern is additionally effective when combined with a pre-defined level of support as represented by chart patterns, major moving averages, Fibonacci levels and trend lines.
  • Oscillators such as Stochastics or RSI can also confirm a changing sentiment from being oversold to becoming more bullish.

 

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S&P 500

Nasdaq





William K. Black on Bill Moyers’ Closing Show

William K. Black on Bill Moyers’ Closing Show

William talks about fraud, or "control fraud" and the criminogenic environment of the Wall Street-Washington world. The regulators themselves were a huge problem because when regulators who hate regulation are appointed, it leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy of failure, "anti-regulation." There’s much more in this interview, click on the picture to watch.  Transcription’s below. - Ilene 

H/tip Barry Ritholz


 

April 23, 2010

BILL MOYERS: Welcome to the JOURNAL. We’ll get to two big battles in Washington in just a moment — financial reform and the future of the internet. But first, I want to thank those of you who wrote after you heard me say last week that the JOURNAL will come to an end with next Friday’s broadcast. It’s true, and all of us here were touched by your messages of regret.

I will miss the virtual community of kindred spirits that has grown up around this broadcast — viewers like you, as we say, whose unseen but felt presence reminds me of why I have kept at this work so long. But it has been a long time, and that’s why I can assure you that my departure is entirely voluntary. Many of you wrote to say you were alarmed at the possibility that we are being pushed off the air — that higher ups or dark powers pointed to the door and said, “Go.”

You can relax; it didn’t happen. I’m leaving for one reason and one reason alone: it’s time. Believe me, it wasn’t an easy decision: I like what I do, cherish my colleagues and enjoy your company. But I’ll be 76 in a few weeks, and there are some things I want to do that the deadlines and demands of a weekly broadcast make impossible. So for me, it’s now or never. I informed public television of my decision more than a year ago, intending to leave back in December. But my colleagues at PBS asked me to extend the series four more months to give them time to prepare a new public affairs series. More on that next week.

Now to the big rumble of this week — and I’m not talking about that volcano in Iceland. I’m talking about the fight to reform our financial system.

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: There…
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Just A Reminder

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

By Nic Lenoir Of ICAP

In case politicians don’t understand what’s at stake, the market kindly gave them a little reminder with a nasty close for equities today. In the early morning it seemed people were quite willing to ignore GS’s misfortunes in its dealings with the ever more schizophrenic government. Washington simply cannot understand why it can’t destroy speculation and leverage yet keep the equity market up, as it is the only economic driver in the US since easy credit is no longer available. Tough indeed: since nothing or close to nothing is manufactured in the US we need our upper class’s investments to skyrocket so it is inclined to spend thereby providing service jobs. US politicians have a lot of work on their plate with the financial reform. Any measures too drastic in terms of balance sheet reduction will be tough on financial assets and curb lending, and any measures to curb speculation on commodities will hit this asset class hard and the commodity stocks along with them (miners are amongst leaders in US equities). European politicians have one fine mess to sort as well and money markets are pricing in higher Libor and funding difficulties ahead already. Without expanding too much on the subject, there is no one I would like less to depend on to make the right decisions.

While stocks were within reach of new highs to start the day in the US, it seems market participants felt like taking risk off before the brainiacs try to figure out what it is exactly they want to do, and by the same token give them a reminder as to the consequences of any stupid decision. S&P is pretty close to posting a H&S on the tops (though the neckline is slightly downward sloping which is not ideal) and the support zone is 1,175/1,180. Watch out below. Similar observation on the Nasdaq future with a neckline support at 1,990. The Nikkei joins in the H&S galore, and the Dax which seems to have been more resolutely bearish (understandable given that the epicenter of the main crapshow the market is focusing on is Europe). After a 61.8% or close retracement of the initial sell-off, if the Dax goes to make new lows next week the markets should in theory accelerate to the downside. For good measure, the French index (CAC) is…
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Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A week ago we were practically speechless when we showed that the Treasury had redeemed nearly $494 billion in Bills in April. A truly stunning number and an indication of just how much cash the Treasury needs to have access to to keep rolling its ridiculously short average maturity debt load. Today we stand even more speechless: according to today’s DTS, the Treasury has now redeemed $596 billion in Bills in Aprils: an all time world record, even when accounting for the Fed’s steroid abuse period of SFP 1 (we are currently in the second iteration). Add $47 billion in Notes and there are almost $650 billion in redemptions. This number is simply ridiculous. Forget the interest expense: this ever increasing roll is the number one danger to the US and world economy. Should the Treasury be unable to keep issuing shorter and shorter dated debt (and it already is skirting away from even the belly of the curve), it is for all intents and purposes game over.





US GDP growth rate is unsustainable; recovery will fade

US GDP growth rate is unsustainable; recovery will fade

Magnifying glass on line graph

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

The US turned in a fairly robust quarter in Q1 2010, with real GDP growth meeting expectations at 3.2% annualized. This comes on the back of a very robust annualized 5.6% growth in the previous quarter. This is the best growth two-quarter growth we have seen since 2003.

However, when one digs deeper, it is obvious this growth is unsustainable because it is predicated on a reduction in savings rates and a releveraging of the household sector. As a result, I expect weak GDP growth in the second half of 2010.

The problem with the BEA reported numbers is the composition of GDP growth. The BEA says in its data release:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 5.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 27, 2010.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, a downturn in residential fixed investment, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in PCE and a deceleration in imports.

So the gain in GDP was due to consumption, while GDP decelerated from Q4 2009 due to inventory, exports, residential investment, and state and local government spending. 

Young Couple Shopping at Shoe Store

Translation: These numbers are entirely dependent on an increase in consumer spending. Everything else is becoming a drag on…
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Net Euro Shorts Spike, Regain Record Highs, As Dollar Longs Surge To Highest Since August 2008

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

This week’s risk aversion trade is nowhere more evident than in the spike of Net eureo shorts for the week ended April 27, as reported by the CFTC. After having retreated to as low as 66k two weeks ago, the net speculative position in the european currency has surged, hitting record resistance in the 97k range. (see chart below). And even as Europe fears drove speculators to abandon the euro, the one currency which is sitting in no man’s land, the USD, this week saw net longs rise to the highest value since August of 2008. Feel free to oull up a chart fo the EURUDF pair and see when the last time it was preparing to blow out so wide was,





Distribution And Rotation, aka Sell Off

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The sectors that brought us to the ridiculous highs are getting sold off. The financial sector now faces a choice between offering a sacrificial lamb or becoming a regulated utility. We hope it opts for the first (we have  a few candidates in mind), as the latter will likely lead to the prompt realization that we never really emerged from the great depression v2. Goldman once again reminded everyone today who is still in charge. As for tech, say good bye to the stimulus wave. In fact, Q1 GDP will be merely the next point on a declining curve. Unless a new stimulus is instituted promptly, this is now the middle of the W. The same for the artificial and one-time bounce in GDP as we have been saying since April of 2009. The bears, for the first time in 13 months are finally smelling blood. And we have a weekend chock full of catalysts, number one and two being the Greek bailout and the resultant civil war, and Lloyd Blankfein on Charlie Rose, digging himself into an even deeper hole. The best damage control for the squid right now is silence. Pity that stooping to the level of the morts has always been the mollusc’s weakest side, and soon to be its undoing. Also add to that the Bund short-end screaming tighter, and the surge in the dollar, as in the sudden and dramatic evaporation of all carry trades, and you have set the stage for the Lehman unwind. Next week will be fun.





Bears bombard Massey Energy Corp. as FBI Investigates Mining Tragedy

Today’s tickers: MEE, CSTR, SMH & RTP

MEE – Massey Energy Corp. – News the coal producer is being looked at by the Federal Bureau of Investigation following the tragic explosion at one of the firm’s mines in West Virginia on April 5, 2010, fuelled bearish options trading activity today and pushed Massey’s shares down 5.9% to $38.90 as of 12:45 pm (ET). Earlier in the session Massey’s shares declined 9% to an intraday low of $37.43. Shares of the underlying stock are currently down 31% since April 5, 2010, when the stock touched a new 52-week high of $54.80 before falling on news of the mining accident. Investors piled into put options on Massey today, with trading traffic heaviest in out-of-the-money puts in the May contract. The May $35 strike attracted the most volume with more than 12,600 puts changing hands at that strike by 12:50 pm (ET). It looks like at least 6,700 puts were purchased there for an average premium of $0.97 apiece. Put-buyers make money if Massey’s shares fall another 12.5% from current price of $38.90 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $34.03 by May expiration. News of the FBI’s involvement, coupled with investors’ voracious appetite for puts on the stock today, boosted Massey’s overall reading of options implied volatility 22.5% to 64.53% as of 12:55 pm (ET).

CSTR – Coinstar, Inc. – Shares of the provider of diverse services, such as self-service coin counting and Redbox $1-a-day movie-rental dispensaries, are up more than 21.5% to $46.44 as of 12:10 pm (ET). Earlier in the session Coinstar’s shares surged 32% over Thursday’s closing value of $38.21 to attain a new 52-week and intraday high of $50.35. One options player reeled in hefty profits by selling a previously established long call position in the May contract. It looks like the investor initially purchased 600 in-the-money calls at the May $35 strike for an average premium of $2.83 apiece back on Monday April 26, 2010, when shares of the underlying stock were trading at a volume-weighted average price of $36.51. Today the trader sold the calls for $14.40 each, banking average net profits of $11.57 per contract. Perhaps expecting continued bullish movement in the price per Coinstar share, the investor established a fresh optimistic stance on the stock by purchasing 600 calls at the May $50 strike for an average premium of $2.20 apiece.…
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Phil's Favorites

Why are Atlantic and Gulf coast property owners building back bigger after hurricanes?

 

Why are Atlantic and Gulf coast property owners building back bigger after hurricanes?

Surf threatens beach houses on Dauphin Island, Alabama, September 4, 2011 during Tropical Storm Lee. AP Photo/Dave Martin

Courtesy of Eli Lazarus, University of Southampton and Evan B. Goldstein, University of North Carolina – Greensboro

U.S. coastal counties are densely populated and extensivel...



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Zero Hedge

Russian And South Korean Fighter Jets Face Off In "Mid-Air Confrontation"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian jets flying through South Korean airspace provoked the South Korean military into a "midair confrontation" that involved firing hundreds of warning shots. All told, South Korean jets fired 360 machine-gun rounds and at least 20 flares, Bloomberg reports.

Three Russian military planes (two Tu-95 bombers and one A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraf...



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Insider Scoop

The Daily Biotech Pulse: Acadia Schizophrenia Drug Fails, Viveve Plummets, Eisai Gets Breakthrough Therapy Designation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Here's a roundup of top developments in the biotech space over the last 24 hours.

Scaling The Peaks

(Biotech stocks hitting 52-week highs on July 22)

  • Acasti Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: ACST)
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: APLS)
  • Arcturus...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Crude Oil Sending a Bearish Message to the Stock Market?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil (NYSEARCA: USO) and the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP: .INX) have peaked and bottomed together several times in the past 9 months. See points (1) and (2) on the chart above.

In summary, the correlation between Oil and the stock market has been quite interesting and demands investors attention.

Crude Oil has been creating lower highs of late and is breaking price support at (3).

If the correlation remains the same, Crude Oil may very well be sending a bearish message to stocks.

Tricky spot for active investors – careful here.

...

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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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