Archive for 2010

IMF And The Greek Chorus

IMF And The Greek Chorus

Courtesy of Elaine Supkis at Culture of Life News 

Statues of lions, Terrace of the Lions, Delos, Greece

Bill Gross says that the biggest bubble we are in is a bond bubble.  He is, of course, not quite right.  It is a bubble but isn’t the biggest bubble.  The closely related bubble that is far bigger and grew the fastest is the Derivatives Beast Bubble.  This hellish monster is based on all the monetary/debt bubbles and is why they were able to grow massively, flooding the planet with easy debt.  The tide seems to be changing as faith in the Derivatives Beast is fading after it ate up trillions of dollars in ‘wealth’.

Right now, we are sailing past the many corporate and private defaults that has destroyed many trillions in dollars and are now entering the true danger zone: defaults of many sovereign nations.  The underpinning system here is the US dollar and the US government but these are leading the way to destruction as the US sucks down immense amounts of red ink.  Obama, this week, is doing what he promised he would not do: ask for ’supplemental funds’ for our expanding wars.  $33 billion this time around.

An astonishing fund!  Again, the GOP tried to stop $7 billion from going to the unemployed working class, claiming we need to tighten our belts.  The IMF forces nations to do this but US warmongers run the IMF and a great way to take over the IMF’s top slots is to be a US war criminal who spends money like a literal fiend.  Of course, the IMF is also Home Base to all good Bilderberg conspirators.  It is virtually one and the same. 

We will talk more about the IMF but first, some news:  EU, IMF Deal Reduces Greek Default Risk; Euro Rises – BloggingStocks


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Capitulation: Biggest Weekly Spike In S&P Large Contracts On The CFTC In History – $19 Billion In Index Shorts Covered

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

This is what capitulation looks like:

The chart above is an indication of the net speculative contracts on the CFTC as disclosed by the weekly COT report. In particular, this tracks the S&P Large contracts (x 250). Last week saw the single biggest weekly short cover in the history of this data set, indicating one of several things: 1) some large fund(s) capitulated and covered a major short position, 2) the ongoing forced short buy-ins by the State Streets of the world have finally yielded results, 3) someone is positioning for a massive move higher in the market by going net short to neutral. The net weekly change in contracts of 66,043 is a record, and involves a staggering amount of capital: the money involved is 1,150x250x66,000 or roughly $19 billion. A weekly move of this magnitude was only ever seen once before, on March 24, 2009, when the government had to cement the bottom of the market following the 666 low. As the Large uses Open Outcry, it explains why we were getting numerous emails from pit traders indicating that Goldman was buying up billions worth of S&P Large.

A comparison of the SPY and the weekly change in the S&P Large contracts can be seen on the next chart.

We let readers make up their own minds as to whether last week’s record short covering surge is a cause to the recent melt up in the market, or an effect to an imminent spike in the S&P.

 





MAUBOUSSIN ON INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY

MAUBOUSSIN ON INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY

Courtesy of Pragcap (and Credit Writedowns

Thanks to Credit Writedowns for pointing us in the direction of this excellent video on investor psychology.  Mauboussin is a money manager at Legg Mason and is always worth listening to:


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Here Comes the Debt Pushback (Where’s the Fed with the Firehose?)

Here Comes the Debt Pushback (Where’s the Fed with the Firehose?)

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

 Bernanke wobbles but he won’t fall down

Down go the dominoes. The out-of-the-loop financial media will probably blame this largely on the Fed ending its MBS program but let’s be honest about the real factor behind it: remedial economics. Surprise surprise; when the market is flooded with supply with few takers, you get bond auctions like we got last week.

It had to end at some point.

FT:

For more than a year, analysts have been warning that record sized debt sales by the US Treasury were at odds with a 10-year yield sitting comfortably below 4 per cent. This week, the yield on 10-year notes jumped from 3.65 per cent to a peak of 3.92 per cent on Thursday. On Friday it was 3.87 per cent.

I’m afraid someone has to point out the obvious here: credit markets don’t like getting the crack unceremoniously taken away, no more than the investors who have been buying into this ridiculousness thinking the free money will never end. Guess what? It’s over.

WSJ on last week’s wake-up call:

Mortgage investors got an unwelcome wake-up call last week after Treasury yields surged, a jolt that indicated that the Federal Reserve’s exit from the market may not go as smoothly as thought.

As the yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped, yields on Fannie Mae’s benchmark 30-year bond followed, rising to 4.45% from 4.33%. That sent mortgage rates above 5%.

It was an unsettling surge as the Fed prepares to end its $1.25 trillion program of buying mortgage securities on Wednesday. Many in the market had come to believe the Fed’s exit would have little effect on mortgage bonds. They reasoned there were enough investors hungry for extra yield that they would step in to buy once the Fed left.

Here’s what I see… the skittish Fed, scared to death to let markets work out their own kinks lest they allow the cancerous bits to rot off (that might put Fannie and Freddie in an uncomfortable position), backpedals on its plan to start unloading MBSs and instead holds on to (and/or increases) its holdings to wait out the expiration of the first-time homebuyer credit in April, despite dismal numbers after the December extension. If you call 180,000 new…
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What I’m Beating TLP With This Week

Here’s Jr. Deputy Accountant’s weekly reading assignment. She has a terrific sense of humor, the kind needed to keep a positive attitude while reading details. – Ilene 

What I’m Beating TLP With This Week

It’s been a long exciting week filled with Greece action, Obamacare, and failed Treasury auctions. Since JDA’s resident paperboy doesn’t believe the Fed is an evil institution and tends to read too much HuffPo and not enough Ron Paul, I’m grabbing the paper, rolling it up and whacking him (hard) with the following:

It’s Official – America Now Enforces Capital Controls Gee, think we should start reading the bill? (Zero Hedge)

Goldman Sachs’ controversial ‘mommy-track’ In fairness to TLP, he didread this one. You should too. (The Week)

Does Unemployment Insurance Cause Unemployment? It’s a legitimate question. Does the FDIC encourage moral hazard? Mmm hmm. (Wall St Cheat Sheet)

On Deficits And Debt-Financed Government Market Ticker is always good for a nice reality check. Especially one that comes out to $760 billion in interest expense alone – and yes, that’s American debt. (Market Ticker)

The “shop till you drop” economy "Who would want to invest in the United States when there are fiscally solvent, rapidly growing emerging economies to invest in?" Who indeed. (The Animal Spirits Page)

Throwing Gas On The Fire Wait a second, are the regulators the problem? (Bank Lawyer’s Blog)

Repo 105: Was Lehman’s Accounting Only Ticking Boxes? Or Is It A Ticking Box? I smell smoke, Jim Peterson smells something awry with financial reporting (as in journalism, not statements) and rules-based accounting. JDA humbly concurs. (Re:Balance)

Is InterOil Built on a Foundation of Fraud? InterOil better look out, you don’t want Sam Antar on your ass (I’m not scared, he’s afraid of me and I’m training him for his next bout) (White Collar Fraud)

TGIF – Greece Fixed AGAIN! Phil seems to think the EU is bipolar. Has the EU asked its doctor about Abilify? (Phil’s Stock World)

The Latest To Get Ripped Off By The Banksters? The States I’m shocked. Completely and totally shocked. (LOLFed


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Day Trading Wizards? Or Just Newton’s First Law

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

One of the most amusing side effects of the recent non-stop, free-liquidity, forced-covering rally, is a deja vu flash back to a decade ago: a surge in day traders. The New York Times presents a romantic look at this rare breed of traders which emerges every time the market is in melt-up mode, be it in the dot.com days, during the credit bubble, or now. And, just like so many times before, as soon as the market peaks, and subsequently crashes, these various “traders” evaporate, and the assorted business models associated with catering to the day trading clientele, be it heatmapping services by every discount broker, or assorted Twitter services, go the way of the dodo. Until the next bubble re-emerges. As for the fabled secrets behind day trading technique, the NYT is laconic: nothing more than Newton’s First Law of Motion. Alas, this is recipe for unmitigated disaster, when one considers that day traders are at the bottom of the information and transaction latency pyramid. And when one factors in transaction costs (sorry day traders, soft dollars work for hedge funds when the trading is with other people’s money; in your case money talks and BS walks). Of course, in the meantime, this strategy, just like any other concoction to suit the times, could very well be profitable. Until it isn’t. Then again, profitability instills a false sense of security. and the conviction that one will pull the plug on winning trades ahead of everyone else. Good luck.

While the full NYT article deserves the once over, here is the most amusing part:

“A common phrase in this business,” says Mr. Lindloff, “is ‘the trend is your friend.’”

The more you listen, the more you realize that for all the high-tech gadgetry behind Today Trader, at its core is a Newtonian principle formulated more than 300 years ago: a body in motion tends to stay in motion.

The problem is that stocks aren’t bodies and their motion is subject to forces Newton could never have fathomed. Some of those forces are hard for the Today Trader duo to fathom, too. Mr. Gomez says that day trading has become far trickier in recent years because of the rise of robo trading — the use of computers


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Day Traders…Wired and ‘Tired’.

Another view of the NY Times article recommended by Brett Steenbarger, New York Times piece on Day Traders 2.0 – ‘Wired, Angry and Loving it  - Ilene 

Day Traders…Wired and ‘Tired’.

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon 

I was emailed recently by David Segal of The New York Times because he stumbled upon Stocktwits.com in his research for today’s New York Times piece on Day Traders 2.0 – ‘Wired, Angry and Loving it . David got the wired part correct.

In the spirit of ‘all press is good press’, we spoke a few times at length about trading, the markets, Stocktwits.com and David asked for some intros to traders that use our product.

If you talk to me as long as David did, you will get some good soundbites. On my end, I am never sure about the context so I am always crossing my fingers. Here is one of the quotes he chose:…
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It’s unanimous: Propping up underwater mortgages is a bad idea

It’s unanimous: Propping up underwater mortgages is a bad idea

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

Families Are Evicted From Homes As Economic Crisis Worsens

What follows is a more comprehensive re-write of my take on the latest bailout proposals by the Obama Administration. I felt the original write-up was a bit rushed and one-sided. I have tried to outline the objectives of the bailout plans more dispassionately. And I have added some historical references from prior posts to demonstrate the basic merits of the idea.

Clearly the mindset will not change. It’s all bailouts, all the time in the Obama Administration, as it was at the end of the Bush Administration. I want to talk about the most recent bailouts, why they were proposed, what’s wrong with them and why bailouts generally don’t work. My remarks will concentrate on the principal reduction program since this is the newest bit.

Why bailouts won’t work

What should be clear to you as an observer by now is that these bailouts implicitly assume that government can stuff financial institutions full of taxpayer money and in so doing adequately recapitalize them so that they can lend again.

The thinking is that, these policies, while "deeply unpopular, deeply hard to understand," are necessary to prevent another systemic breakdown and a deflationary spiral.

Also implicit is the assumption that economic weakness depends in large measure on supporting home price values by increasing the supply of credit via bank lending and securitizations. But, as I argued 14 months ago when Barack Obama came to the White House, the financial system is so fundamentally unsound that bailouts are like catching a falling knife. The writedowns that needed to be taken – in the absence of serious house price appreciation – are just too large to be handled quickly via bailouts.

Moreover, it is the demand for credit which is critical here because households are over-indebted and reluctant to take on further debt. While I do believe officialdom can be successful in creating mild but brief cyclical upticks in consumer demand, weak consumer spending will last for years. The secular trend is clearly going to be toward increasing savings and reducing debt.

So bailouts alone cannot address the debt problem which is behind the reduction in credit demand growth. Nor are they likely to be adequate to deal with the scale of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets.…
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Greece [Will/Will Not] Issue 6%+ Debt This Week, Even As Evans-Pritchard Summarizes It Best: “Greece Is Drowning”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Something funny happened on the road to a Greek bailout: nothing. Well, a few exceptions: Germany and the ECB are now enemies, nobody knows what the hell the Maastricht rules really are, the ratings agencies are discredited beyond repair as even the ECB says its own internal bureaucrats can do a better job at modelling the Greek AAA rating… Yet Greek debt is still yielding 6%+. If anyone will recall, the primary concern that various administration George Pap[...]‘s had, was that Greek debt was “unfairly” yielding double where German debt is. So yeah, lots of talk, more non-bailout bailouts, and in meantime, Greek default risk is pretty much where it was two months ago. Which is why speculation that emerged toward the end of last week that Greece will promptly issue new debt, is now being squashed by G-Pap (fin min or FM, not to be confused with the prime min or PM). In the end, it is all irrelevant: as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says, the end is close for Greece.

The Telegraph reports:

Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou said no decision had been taken, playing down earlier reports. While Greece can undoubtedly raise the money, the issue is the interest cost.

It gets funnier:

The government said the rise in spreads since the crisis erupted has eaten up savings from budget cuts.

Yields on 10-year Greek bonds were still 6.18pc on Friday, down 30 basis points from their peak but still double German rates. Short-term debt is cheaper but Athens risks a roll-over crisis in 2011 unless it stretches out debt maturities.

Greek banks have been key buyers of state debt this year, using it as collateral for cheap loans from the European Central Bank. Simon Ward, of Henderson Global Investors, said ECB loans to Greek banks jumped by €12.5bn to a record €59.8bn in February.

Earmuff time for a recently downgraded into near default RBS:

A chunk has been used to cover “an incipient run on Greek banks”, which have lost €8.4bn in deposits since December. The ECB changed tack last week, saying it would continue to accept BBB- debt as collateral into 2011.

Greece is now openly trying to…
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Keys to Daytrading Success and Why So Few Traders Get There

Trader psychology expert Brett Steenbarger recommending NY Times’ article, "Day Traders 2.0: Wired, Angry and Loving It." – Ilene 

Keys to Daytrading Success and Why So Few Traders Get There

Businessman trying to catch money in a net

By Brett Steenbarger at TraderFeed

Thanks to several alert readers for sending me this insightful New York Times article on daytrading and the challenge of daytraders.

A while back, I posted on the topic of research concerning individual daytraders and how many of them are truly successful. That is worth reading or re-reading: it clearly indicates that most active trading is hazardous to traders’ wealth, but that a small group of participants are able to sustain success.

This is not like most career fields, where an average teacher, middle manager, or sales person can sustain a living. An average performance in trading is one in which the trader does not make money at all. The Times article cites research suggesting support for the often-cited statistic that 80% of daytraders lose money. 

More here.>>


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Zero Hedge

Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...



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Phil's Favorites

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in r...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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