Archive for 2010

Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of June 14th, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

 

Optrader 





Iranian Ships Prepare To Set Sail For Gaza Strip

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Even as the UN is formalizing its response to Iran, the Persian Gulf country is preparing to set sail three ships with aid for the Gaza Strip, AFP reported earlier and was cited by the Jerusalem Post. The ships are only awaiting for final permission from the Iranian Foreign Ministry, without regard for Israel’s potential retaliation should Iranian ships approach Israel territorial waters. And with over 100,000 Iranians having volunteered to sail onboard, this will unlikely be diffused with mere diplomacy. At least some of the escalation rhetoric this weekend was slightly moderated after Haaretz refuted an earlier report by the Times of London that Saudi Arabia has opened up an air corridor for an Israel strike is false: “Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi envoy to the U.K. speaking to the London-based Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, denied that report, saying such a move “would be against the policy adopted and followed by the Kingdom.” As for the Iranian overture, the piece de resistance is that Iran will also send a plane to Egypt, carrying 30 tons of medical aid, and forcing the involvement of even more third party actors who would certainly prefer to be impartial in this very unstable time. Once again, Gulf (the other Gulf) tensions are escalating, and there seems nothing on the horizon to set anyone’s mind at ease. But somehow headlines about the return of the global recovery are once again making the rounds.

From the Jerusalem Post:

The Iranian Red Crescent has equipped and loaded two ships with aid, and is waiting for permission from the Iranian Foreign Ministry to set sail for Gaza, AFP reported on Sunday. A third ship is planned for next week.

An Iranian Red Crescent official, Mojtaba Majd,  was quoted as saying that over 100,000 Iranians have volunteered to sail on the ships. He said that the problems involved may prevent Iran from sending volunteers, however “the important issue is that the people of Gaza know that more than 100,000 Iranians are ready to come to their help.”

One of the ships, which is carrying food and medicine is expected to leave this week.  The Red Crescent has promised to send two ships by Friday and a third next week.

A plane is also planned to fly to Egypt carrying 30 tons


continue reading





Canada Looking to Expand CPP

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis

Via Pension Pulse.

Bill Curry of the Globe & Mail reports, Flaherty seeks support for expanded CPP:

Jim Flaherty is urging the provinces to support a plan to increase mandatory CPP premiums, but the federal finance minister has stopped short of endorsing the kind of reform that some critics say is necessary to ease a growing pension crisis.

 

Mr. Flaherty faces an uphill battle on Monday, when he wraps up a series of meetings with provincial finance ministers, during which he must convince two-thirds of them representing two-thirds of the population to back his vision of an expanded Canada Pension Plan#001f5e ! important; padding-bottom: 0px ! important; color: #001f5e ! important; background-color: transparent ! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;”>.

 

While the Conservative finance minister said it is too soon to hammer out the details of any changes, he ruled out doubling CPP benefits, a proposal endorsed by several unions.

 

He also rejected a voluntary add-on to the CPP that would essentially compete with private mutual funds#001f5e ! important; padding-bottom: 0px ! important; color: #001f5e ! important; background-color: transparent ! important; background-image: none; padding-top: 0pt; padding-right: 0pt; padding-left: 0pt;”> – a central proposal of the federal Liberal party. “We have a Canada Pension Plan that’s the envy of the world,” Mr. Flaherty told reporters in Charlottetown Sunday in advance of meetings in Lakeside that wrap up Monday.

 

“We reject a voluntary plan because that would very much disturb the work of the Canada Pension Plan which operates on a different basis, but the plan can administer a modest, phased-in increase on the mandatory side.”

 

Pensions expert Keith Ambachtsheer, the director of the Rotman International Centre for Pension Management who sat in on many of the cross-country consultations conducted by the federal government, said there are two main ways to increase CPP premiums.

One is to increase employer and employee premiums on all earnings up to the CPP’s yearly limit, which is currently at $47,200. The second option would be to


continue reading





US "Discovers" Nearly $1 Trillion In Mineral Deposits In Afghanistan

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And there are those who wonder why the US has spent countless dollars and thousands of dead soldiers protecting a few desolate mountain passes in Afghanistan. And no, it turns out it is not just the opium trade. The NYT reports that “The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.” The article continues, “The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.” Ah yes – “previously unknown.” Yet the punchline of the piece : “The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists.” Because $1 trillion worth of minerals just lie there waiting to be discovered almost 10 years after the initial incursion. Next thing you know FCX already had an entire mining infrastructure in place just in case a contingency like this miraculously occurred. In the meantime, look for gold prices to plunge as the newly uncovered gold deposits are rumored to be “large” enough to once again refill Fort Knox and to push the supply curve three miles to the right.

More on this truly “stunning” discovery:

The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

he previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and Blackberries.

The vast scale


continue reading





US “Discovers” Nearly $1 Trillion In Mineral Deposits In Afghanistan

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

And there are those who wonder why the US has spent countless dollars and thousands of dead soldiers protecting a few desolate mountain passes in Afghanistan. And no, it turns out it is not just the opium trade. The NYT reports that “The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.” The article continues, “The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.” Ah yes – “previously unknown.” Yet the punchline of the piece : “The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists.” Because $1 trillion worth of minerals just lie there waiting to be discovered almost 10 years after the initial incursion. Next thing you know FCX already had an entire mining infrastructure in place just in case a contingency like this miraculously occurred. In the meantime, look for gold prices to plunge as the newly uncovered gold deposits are rumored to be “large” enough to once again refill Fort Knox and to push the supply curve three miles to the right.

More on this truly “stunning” discovery:

The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to senior American government officials.

he previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and Blackberries.

The vast scale


continue reading





Deflation? Try a Tale of Two Inflations

Courtesy of asiablues

By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

The crisis in Europe is causing concerns about deflation in the U.S. and other developed economies after weeks of financial-market turmoil. The fears are most pronounced in Europe, where a combination of spending cuts and tax increases could weigh on economic growth and feed into deflation.

Financial markets are reflecting a diverging expectation. Gold prices have been soaring—a potential indicator of inflation fears—while many other inflation indicators are going the other way.

In the United States, the loose monetary policy has not resulted in any significant rise at the consumer level or changes in inflation expectations, as evidenced by the sharply slowing Consumer Price Index and plunging M3 money supply.

Biflation… Not Deflation

Despite the seemingly tame headline inflation numbers, consumers never seem to see price declines in certain categories like education and health.  For instance, prescription drug inflation escalated to 5% from less than 3% in 2007 and 2008.

So, it is pretty obvious what we have here--biflation--instead of deflation. Biflation is a state of the economy where inflation and deflation occur simultaneously.  (Chart 1)

The price increase of commodities is caused by the increased money flow (via loose monetary policy) chasing them. On the other hand, the growth of economy is tempered with high unemployment and decreasing purchasing power. This has resulted in a greater amount of money directed toward essential items (inflation) and away from non-essential items and things required credit to buy such as house and cars (deflation).

Inflation In the Supply Chain

Furthermore, the price at the producer level paints an entirely different picture. Producer Price Index (PPI) for finished goods was up 5.5% year-over-year. Further up the supply chain, signs of inflation are even more worrisome.

The PPI for intermediate goods increased 8.6% year-over-year in April, while core PPI for crude materials, excluding food and energy, shot up 60% year-over-year in April (Chart 2).

Meanwhile, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) report shows manufacturing sector expanded in May for the 10th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 13th consecutive month. Backlogs are also increasing which further points to the inflationary pressure in the pipeline. (Chart 3)

A Tale of Two Inflations


continue reading





George Soros: "We Have Just Entered Act II Of The Drama" – Full Speech

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Three days ago we brought attention to Soros’ most recent outburst of negativity in a speech presented during a conference in Vienna, in which he said that “The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over. Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.” Below is the full text of Soros’ speech.

In the week following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008 – global financial markets actually broke down and by the end of the week they had to be put on artificial life support. The life support consisted of substituting sovereign credit for the credit of financial institutions which ceased to be acceptable to counter parties.

As Mervyn King of the Bank of England brilliantly explained, the authorities had to do in the short-term the exact opposite of what was needed in the long-term: they had to pump in a lot of credit to make up for the credit that disappeared and thereby reinforce the excess credit and leverage that had caused the crisis in the first place. Only in the longer term, when the crisis had subsided, could they drain the credit and reestablish macro-economic balance. This required a delicate two phase maneuver just as when a car is skidding, first you have to turn the car into the direction of the skid and only when you have regained control can you correct course.

The first phase of the maneuver has been successfully accomplished – a collapse has been averted. In retrospect, the temporary breakdown of the financial system seems like a bad dream. There are people in the financial institutions that survived who would like nothing better than to forget it and carry on with business as usual. This was evident in their massive lobbying effort to protect their interests in the Financial Reform Act that just came out of Congress. But the collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over.

Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama, when financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt. Greece and the euro have taken center stage but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide.  Doubts about sovereign credit are forcing reductions in budget deficits at a time when the…
continue reading





George Soros: “We Have Just Entered Act II Of The Drama” – Full Speech

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Three days ago we brought attention to Soros’ most recent outburst of negativity in a speech presented during a conference in Vienna, in which he said that “The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over. Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.” Below is the full text of Soros’ speech.

In the week following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008 – global financial markets actually broke down and by the end of the week they had to be put on artificial life support. The life support consisted of substituting sovereign credit for the credit of financial institutions which ceased to be acceptable to counter parties.

As Mervyn King of the Bank of England brilliantly explained, the authorities had to do in the short-term the exact opposite of what was needed in the long-term: they had to pump in a lot of credit to make up for the credit that disappeared and thereby reinforce the excess credit and leverage that had caused the crisis in the first place. Only in the longer term, when the crisis had subsided, could they drain the credit and reestablish macro-economic balance. This required a delicate two phase maneuver just as when a car is skidding, first you have to turn the car into the direction of the skid and only when you have regained control can you correct course.

The first phase of the maneuver has been successfully accomplished – a collapse has been averted. In retrospect, the temporary breakdown of the financial system seems like a bad dream. There are people in the financial institutions that survived who would like nothing better than to forget it and carry on with business as usual. This was evident in their massive lobbying effort to protect their interests in the Financial Reform Act that just came out of Congress. But the collapse of the financial system as we know it is real and the crisis is far from over.

Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama, when financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt. Greece and the euro have taken center stage but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide.  Doubts about sovereign credit are forcing reductions in budget deficits at a time when the…
continue reading





On Last Week's Underreported Failed Hungarian Auction

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Another important piece of news that was lost in last week’s “oilflow” in addition to the failed Chinese bill auction previously discussed on Zero Hedge, was the Hungarian 12-month bill auction on June 10th, which aimed to raise 50 billion Hungarian Forints ($214 million), of which the government only accepted HUF35 billion in offers. It is unclear if submitted bids actually topped 50 billion, yet the inability to find a mere $64 million at acceptable terms is very troubling. Fitch immediately stepped in to diffuse the situation, which is still very tense courtesy of the prior week’s commentary out of Hungarian politicians that the country is in dire a situation as Greece: “Fitch Ratings has said on Friday that while Hungary’s Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) was able to sell less 12-month discount Treasury bills than it originally planned yesterday, the undersold debt auction means no threat to the country’s financing ability, but it does highlight its vulnerability that was exacerbated by “misjudged comments” by members of the new government” as portfolio.hu reports. The failed auction, does “highlight Hungary’s ongoing vulnerability to global investor risk aversion, sharpened recently by misjudged comments by the new Hungarian government, and post-election uncertainty over the outlook for public finances in the context of an already high gross government debt burden.”

The full Fitch statement is as follows:

“Fitch says yesterday’s undersold HUF50bn (about EUR180m) government debt auction – the first since the auctions restarted following the signing of the EUR20bn IMF-led support package – does not threaten Hungary’s immediate financing ability, which is supported by access to substantial official external funds and large domestic deposits.”

“It does however, as previously stated by Fitch, highlight Hungary’s ongoing vulnerability to global investor risk aversion, sharpened recently by misjudged comments by the new Hungarian government, and post-election uncertainty over the outlook for public finances in the context of an already high gross government debt burden (for further details see, ‘Fitch: Tight Fiscal Policy Needed to Stabilise Hungary’s Ratings,” published on 9 June).”

What is surprising is that even with the ECB now openly monetizing any European government debt (and in the process debasing the Euro further), including primary auctions that are on the verge of failure, that some country could not find enough submitted bids to accept 100% of them…
continue reading





On Last Week’s Underreported Failed Hungarian Auction

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Another important piece of news that was lost in last week’s “oilflow” in addition to the failed Chinese bill auction previously discussed on Zero Hedge, was the Hungarian 12-month bill auction on June 10th, which aimed to raise 50 billion Hungarian Forints ($214 million), of which the government only accepted HUF35 billion in offers. It is unclear if submitted bids actually topped 50 billion, yet the inability to find a mere $64 million at acceptable terms is very troubling. Fitch immediately stepped in to diffuse the situation, which is still very tense courtesy of the prior week’s commentary out of Hungarian politicians that the country is in dire a situation as Greece: “Fitch Ratings has said on Friday that while Hungary’s Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) was able to sell less 12-month discount Treasury bills than it originally planned yesterday, the undersold debt auction means no threat to the country’s financing ability, but it does highlight its vulnerability that was exacerbated by “misjudged comments” by members of the new government” as portfolio.hu reports. The failed auction, does “highlight Hungary’s ongoing vulnerability to global investor risk aversion, sharpened recently by misjudged comments by the new Hungarian government, and post-election uncertainty over the outlook for public finances in the context of an already high gross government debt burden.”

The full Fitch statement is as follows:

“Fitch says yesterday’s undersold HUF50bn (about EUR180m) government debt auction – the first since the auctions restarted following the signing of the EUR20bn IMF-led support package – does not threaten Hungary’s immediate financing ability, which is supported by access to substantial official external funds and large domestic deposits.”

“It does however, as previously stated by Fitch, highlight Hungary’s ongoing vulnerability to global investor risk aversion, sharpened recently by misjudged comments by the new Hungarian government, and post-election uncertainty over the outlook for public finances in the context of an already high gross government debt burden (for further details see, ‘Fitch: Tight Fiscal Policy Needed to Stabilise Hungary’s Ratings,” published on 9 June).”

What is surprising is that even with the ECB now openly monetizing any European government debt (and in the process debasing the Euro further), including primary auctions that are on the verge of failure, that some country could not find enough submitted bids to accept 100% of them…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



more from Chart School

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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