Archive for 2010

Does “No Decoupling” Mean Dollar Set To Surge?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Earlier we presented Morgan Stanley’s traditionally bullish opinions on the economy as relates to the firm’s view on rates, which nonetheless translated into an opposite trade recommendation: one that goes against the very core of the bullish economic sentiment. Curiously, Morgan Stanley did a comparable bait-and-switch in its FX analysis last week, when it called for a spike in the recently beaten down USD, on the back of an expectation of US economic growth by 3.4% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4 (these numbers will shortly be revised lower as MS is way above consensus, see Exhibit 1, and even sellside strategists are finally becoming aware of the double dip), or economic data weakening elsewhere. In other words, no decoupling. With the EUR surging, and the recent strength in Europe’s manufacturing centers driven purely by a surge in exports, the likelihood that foreign economies are looking at a step function drop is pretty much guaranteed. Which brings us to a parallel observation, one we have brought up previously, namely that various governments will likely escalate the trade imbalances on an increasingly shorter timeframe, taking advantage of the record short-term volatility in key crosses, and ping ponging quarter after quarter between export strength and weakness, all the while hoping to ride the crest of the wave of recent strength beyond upcoming economic declines. In other words, borrowing a term from TV jargon, the economy will soon downshift from “progressive” to “interlaced” as instead of operating at full steam constantly, each developed economy will be in a quarterly On:Off regime, all the while hoping to remain in investors’ good graces when it comes to stock markets, and be punished aggressively when it comes to FX. Judging by the results in Q1 and Q2, and the interplay between Europe and the US in light of a surging then plunging dollar, it is working… for the time being. One wonders however how long the developed, overleveraged economies can hope to maintain this ruse, which is nothing short of another confidence game on risky assets and a bet for central planning.

Back to Morgan Stanley. Below is Stephen Hull’s view on why nondecoupling means it is time to take profits on USD shorts and unwind all those EUR longs.

Our core views from the remainder of 2010 remain unchanged,


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“THERE IS A BUBBLE FORMING IN GOLD”

“THERE IS A BUBBLE FORMING IN GOLD”

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Manpreet Gill, Asia strategist of Barclays Wealth says there is a bubble forming in gold prices and that investors should avoid the precious metal:

Source: CNBC

***

Interesting comment section too, for example, and including Pragcap’s thoughts on the subject:

Angry MBA 08/08/2010 at 2:15 PM

The man is on drugs. If not then it’s a pathetic attempt to scare investors away from the real money.

Gold isn’t money. I don’t know how you folks come to believe such nonsense, but it obviously isn’t.

The math is very simple: If the markets believed that gold was a substitute for money and fractional reserve debt, gold would be worth far more than it is now. There is simply not enough gold in the world to support global economic growth, which makes it obvious that the markets don’t share your enthusiasm for gold or your paranoia about real money, i.e. the money that you don’t like.

Gold is a traded commodity that rises and falls in value, just like everything else. The retail dupes who fell for this gold-is-sacred nonsense after the late 70′s gold bubble ended up getting their clocks cleaned.

  • Close-up of feathers of a peacock Horizontal

    TPC 08/08/2010 at 3:28 PM

    MBA,

    That will ruffle some feathers. The irony with gold is that, if anything, we are moving further and further from any sort of commodity or even a paper based money. We are evolving to the point where money is just a thing. It is becoming plastic and will soon be electronic. It will not even be tangible in 500 years is my guess. The “gold is money” argument is sold by the Glenn Becks of the world (who have a vested interest in pushing the product – literally) and other people who don’t understand how monetary systems changed in 1971 and have not studied the history of money. Nonetheless, there is no reason to expect these misconceptions to change.

    Money is effectively an IOU. Who cares whether it comes in gold form or paper form or electronic form? All have their weaknesses and none have really proven to serve society better than another (except in terms of transportability in which case gold is the obvious loser).


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Private Equity Emerging From the Deep?

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis

Via Pension Pulse.

David Currie, partner and chief executive at SL Capital Partners, reports in the FT, Most pensions need help with private equity investment:

Following the publication of the FTfm article, ‘Sceptical investors taking the more direct route’ (July 11 2010), discussions in the press have focused on the private equity fund of funds sector and the idea that pension funds will shift from investing via these vehicles to a more consultant-led or direct investment model.

 

Historically, pension funds have used a mix of strategies to deploy their private equity allocation depending on their own size and experience in the asset class. We agree that some of the largest pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have their own direct private equity strategies to deploy capital that involve a mix of direct and fund investments.

 

However, we are convinced the majority of global pension funds remain open to the idea that the additional layer of fees charged by private equity fund of funds represents a price worth paying to get the requisite access and the assurance over administration and compliance that an experienced manager can bring. Our pension fund clients engage us to provide a complete private equity solution for what is typically only ever up to 5 per cent of their total investment portfolio.

 

The majority of pension funds do not have the €100m (£83m, $132m) allocation to private equity that has been noted as the level that would allow them to invest directly in a structured long-term way into private equity. For these schemes, the hurdles of minimum allocation, administration of the investments and the risk diversification mean that a fund of funds is the only viable route.

 

In SL Capital’s fund of funds, the average commitment by a client is €12m, which would normally represent the pension fund’s entire private equity commitment, or at least its entire US or European private equity commitment. It is impossible to get true diversification, across at least 10 private equity funds, with a €12m allocation, as most funds require a minimum commitment of €5m.

 

It is also worth noting that the larger funds of funds sit on the private equity funds’ advisory boards as a matter of course. These positions are open


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Morgan Stanley On Why The US Will Not Be Japan, And Why Treasuries Are Extremely Rich (Yet Pitches A 6:1 Deflation Hedge)

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

We previously presented a piece by SocGen’s Albert Edwards that claimed that there is nothing now but to sit back, relax, and watch as the US becomes another Japan, as asset prices tumble, gripped by the vortex of relentless deflation. Sure enough, the one biggest bear on Treasuries for the past year, Morgan Stanley, is quick to come out with a piece titled: “Are We Turning Japanese, We Don’t Think So.” Of course, with the 10 Year trading at the tightest level in years, the 2 Year at record tights, and the firm’s all out bet on curve steepening an outright disaster, the question of just how much credibility the firm has left with clients is debatable. Below is Jim Caron’s brief overview of why Edwards and all those who see a deflationary tide sweeping the US are wrong. Yet, in what seems a first, Morgan Stanley presents two possible trades for those with access to the CMS and swaption market, in the very off case, that deflation does ultimately win.

Morgan Stanley’s rebuttal of the “Japan is coming” case:

There are many arguments that suggest the US is going the way of Japan, and while UST yield valuations may appear expensive, a regime shift has occurred and we should use the deflation experience of Japan as a guideline. We respect this point of view, and our colleagues in Japan provide some compelling charts.

In Exhibit 3 we show how the richening in the JGB 5y led to a significant flattening of the curve. Ultimately CPI turned negative and Japan did in fact move into a period of deflation. It makes sense for the 5y to outperform, as investors believed in a low rate and inflation regime for an extended period. Most money is managed 5 years and in, which thus makes the 5y point so attractive in low rate regimes because it represents the greatest opportunity for money managers to own duration, yield and return. The same is happening in the US as the 5y point is richening extensively as investors seem to be surrendering to a low rate and low return environment. But this may be premature.

Note that it took ~2-years before the JGB 2s10s curve started to flatten, predicated upon the richening of the JGB 5y on the 2s5s10s fly.  And


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Morgan Stanley On Why The US Will Not Be Japan, And Why Treasuries Are Extremely Rich (Yet Pitches A 6:1 Hedge In Case Of Error)

Morgan Stanley On Why The US Will Not Be Japan, And Why Treasuries Are Extremely Rich (Yet Pitches A 6:1 Deflation Hedge)

Japan.

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

We previously presented a piece by SocGen’s Albert Edwards that claimed that there is nothing now but to sit back, relax, and watch as the US becomes another Japan, as asset prices tumble, gripped by the vortex of relentless deflation. Sure enough, the one biggest bear on Treasuries for the past year, Morgan Stanley, is quick to come out with a piece titled: "Are We Turning Japanese, We Don’t Think So." Of course, with the 10 Year trading at the tightest level in years, the 2 Year at record tights, and the firm’s all out bet on curve steepening an outright disaster, the question of just how much credibility the firm has left with clients is debatable.

Below is Jim Caron’s brief overview of why Edwards and all those who see a deflationary tide sweeping the US are wrong. Yet, in what seems a first, Morgan Stanley presents two possible trades for those with access to the CMS and swaption market, in the very off case, that deflation does ultimately win.

Morgan Stanley’s rebuttal of the "Japan is coming" case:

There are many arguments that suggest the US is going the way of Japan, and while UST yield valuations may appear expensive, a regime shift has occurred and we should use the deflation experience of Japan as a guideline. We respect this point of view, and our colleagues in Japan provide some compelling charts.

In Exhibit 3 we show how the richening in the JGB 5y led to a significant flattening of the curve. Ultimately CPI turned negative and Japan did in fact move into a period of deflation. It makes sense for the 5y to outperform, as investors believed in a low rate and inflation regime for an extended period. Most money is managed 5 years and in, which thus makes the 5y point so attractive in low rate regimes because it represents the greatest opportunity for money managers to own duration, yield and return. The same is happening in the US as the 5y point is richening extensively as investors seem to be surrendering to a low rate and low return environment. But this may be premature.

Note that it took ~2-years before the


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US Payrolls to Rise 1.1mm Per Month in 2011 – SSTF to Congress

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The following is a graph that tracks percentage changes in GDP and the growth of SS payroll tax revenue from 1990 through 2010. While there is not a perfect correlation between the two data sets one can see that the lines do track each other. The exception is 2010. The economy has made a recovery from the 09 recession. But SS payroll receipts have actually fallen during fiscal 2010 (ends 9/30).

This is the dilemma facing the US economy. We are not creating enough new jobs. Based on history one could expect that job creation is not far off. But 2011 is unlikely to look like the past. I can’t think of a single economist or government-forecasting agency that believes we will see any significant job growth over the next twelve months. There is a very real (and growing) potential that we will actually see more net job losses.

The SS Trust Fund does not share this outlook on job growth. They think things are about to ramp up in a very big way. The following graph updates the prior one and shows a line in green that represents the Fund’s expectation for payroll tax receipts for 2011. They are expecting a YoY rise of $60b. This comes to an increase of 9%. That percentage increase has not been achieved in any year for the past 20 years. A slide using the projected data for 2011 from the SSTF 2010 Annual Report to Congress:

The data table from the 2010 SSTF report:

SS payroll tax is 12.4%. Therefore the $60b increase in 2011 receipts translates into $485b of increased total payroll. The question is how many jobs will this convert into. The answer is dependent on the average salary that all of the new workers will get. Average income in the US is $35,000 today. Using this number you back into the new jobs for the period 10/1/2010 to 9/30/2011 implied in the SSTF forecast is 13.8mm or about 1.1mm net new jobs a month.

The Trust Fund Report to Congress gave an overall rosy view of the future. By their calculation the net health of the Fund improved from 2009 to 2010. To arrive at that conclusion they…
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Albert Edwards Explains How The Leading Indicator Is Already Back Into Recession Territory And Why The Japan “Ice Age” Is Coming

Albert Edwards Explains How The Leading Indicator Is Already Back Into Recession Territory And Why The Japan "Ice Age" Is Coming

Greenland

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Albert Edwards reverts to his favorite economic concept, the "Ice Age" in his latest commentary piece, presenting another piece in the puzzle of similarities between the Japanese experience and that which the US is currently going through. A.E. boldly goes where Goldman only recently has dared to tread, by claiming that he expects negative GDP – not in 2011, but by the end of this year.  After all, if one looks beneath the headlines of even the current data set, it is not only the ECRI, but the US Coference Board’s Leading Index, Albert explains, that confirms that we are already in a recesion.

If one takes out the benefit of the steep yield curve as an input to the Leading Indicator metric, and a curve inversion physically impossible due to ZIRP and the zero bound already reaching out as far out as the 2 Year point (it appears the 2 Year may break below 0.5% this week), the result indicates that the US economy is already firmly in recession territory. Edwards explains further: "one of the key components for Conference Board leading indicator is the shape of the yield curve (10y-Fed Funds). This has been regularly adding 0.3-0.4% per month to the overall indicator, which is now falling mom! The simple fact is that with Fed Funds at zero, it is totally ridiculous to suggest there is any information content in the steep yield curve, which will now never predict a recession. Without this yield curve nonsense this key lead indicator is already predicting a recession."

All too obvious double dip aside, Edwards focuses on the disconnect between bonds and stocks, and synthesizes it as follows: "investors are finally accepting that what is going on in the West is indeed very similar to Japan a decade ago. For years my attempts to draw this parallel have been met with hoots of derision  but finally the penny is dropping." The primary disconnect in asset classes as the Ice Age unravels, for those familiar with Edwards work, is the increasing shift away from stocks and into bonds, probably best summarized by the chart below comparing global bond and equity yields – note the increasing decoupling. This is prefaced as follows:…
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Huge Battle Looms Over Public Pensions – Who Will (Who Should) Foot the Bill?

Huge Battle Looms Over Public Pensions – Who Will (Who Should) Foot the Bill?

Courtesy of Mish

Public pension plans are $1 to $3 trillion underfunded. I think the number is closer to $3 trillion and destined to get worse. However, even $1 trillion is a massive problem.

With so much at stake, a Battle Looms Over Huge Costs of Public Pensions

There’s a class war coming to the world of government pensions. The haves are retirees who were once state or municipal workers. Their seemingly guaranteed and ever-escalating monthly pension benefits are breaking budgets nationwide.

The have-nots are taxpayers who don’t have generous pensions. Their 401(k)s or individual retirement accounts have taken a real beating in recent years and are not guaranteed. And soon, many of those people will be paying higher taxes or getting fewer state services as their states put more money aside to cover those pension checks.

At stake is at least $1 trillion. That’s trillion, with a “t,” as in titanic and terrifying.

Given how wrong past pension projections were, who should pay to fill the 13-figure financing gap?

Consider what’s going on in Colorado — and what is likely to unfold in other states and municipalities around the country. Earlier this year, in an act of rare political courage, a bipartisan coalition of state legislators passed a pension overhaul bill. Among other things, the bill reduced the raise that people who are already retired get in their pension checks each year.

This sort of thing just isn’t done. States have asked current workers to contribute more, tweaked the formula for future hires or banned them from the pension plan altogether. But this was apparently the first time that state legislators had forced current retirees to share the pain.

The state’s case turns, in part, on whether it is an “actuarial necessity” for the Legislature to make a change. To Meredith Williams, executive director of the Public Employees’ Retirement Association, the state’s pension fund, the answer is pretty simple. “If something didn’t change, we would have run out of money in the foreseeable future,” he said. “So no one would have been paid anything.”

Meanwhile, Gary R. Justus, a former teacher who is one of the lead plaintiffs in the case against the state, asks taxpayers in Colorado and elsewhere to consider an ethical question: Why is the state so quick


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CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS

CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS

Shanghai Jade Buddha Temple November 2006 Photo: Roger Parker

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

We’ve often referred to China as a leading indicator of equities over the last few years.  Some sell side analysts have caught onto the trend as well (which likely means it will stop working now).  CitiGroup highlights China’s emergence as the “leading indicator of leading indicators” (via FT Alphaville):

“China is the biggest emerging market in the world, currently accounting for 18.6% of the MSCI GEMs index. We have noticed how, since the end of the last bull market in 2007, the Chinese market has often seemed to reach an inflexion point before other leading global market indices. As equity markets should act as a leading indicator of broader economic growth trends, it seems, therefore, that the Chinese equity market has recently become ‘the leading indicator of the leading indicators’. Given that the local Shanghai Composite index and MSCI China have both rebounded by 13-15% from their recent lows and our China strategist, Minggao Shen, has just turned more bullish on the market1, these events are a positive mix for global emerging markets as a whole. This is, therefore, a good time to consider the Chinese market’s role as a signaling mechanism for GEMs as a whole.”

china CHINA: THE LEADING INDICATOR OF LEADING INDICATORS


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All About Trends--Subscriber Weekend Newsletter

All About Trends--Subscriber Weekend Newsletter

Courtesy of David of All About Trends 

And the 60 minute charts strike again! Throughout this whole move off the July lows the Full Stoh’s and the green up trendline has basically nailed every peak and valley as shown beow in the S&P 500 chart.

In Friday’s Mid Day Update in the 60 minute S&P 500 chart we said: 

See why we stopped where we did? It’s trendline support and the stoh’s are oversold.

There is no doubt that the 60 minute chart and the green line are in play. A break of the green line signals a trend change, while the 1131 level to the upside so far is capping the move higher. 

For those not well versed in Elliott Wave nor care to be from here there are 4 things to really watch for:

1. Inability to bust thru 1131 to the upside then a break to the downside.

2. There is still the 1140 61.8% fib level hanging out there that MAY or MAY NOT get tagged (60 min chart says it could happen so be aware). 

3. The green uptrendline off the July lows. That line has held every pullback. As a result, odds favor when it breaks, it breaks hard. 

4. A termination of the GREEN RISING BEARISH WEDGE with a downside break as shown in the 60 minute chart.

So there you have it, next week I’ll be paying attention to the four things mentioned above.

For those of you who are into Elliott Wave Theory, there is a lot going on in the chart above.

1. You can see the Blue 1,2,3,4 and the pink 5 with us being in the 5th wave.

2. See the pink 5a, 5b, and the potential 5c,5d,5e subdivisions? We say potential as it is just that a potential wave count that could take us to the 1140 61.8 Fibonacci level , assuming we get there.

3 You can also see off of the July lows a RED A and B showing with us in C. This too is a potentuality to consider going into next week.

Bottom line the traditional Technical Analysis backdrop we’ve covered above and the Elliott Wave backdrop are all ending patterns to be aware of. They also signify a trend change is near. 

We know this thing keeps dragging out, doesn’t it?
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Zero Hedge

Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When most people think about oil and natural gas, the first thing that comes to mind is the gas in the tank of their car. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan notes, there is actually much more to oil’s role, than meets the eye...

Oil, along with natural gas, has hundreds of different uses in a modern vehicle through petrochemicals.

Today’s infographic comes to us from American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers, and covers why oil is a critical mate...



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Phil's Favorites

Assange's new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Assange’s new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

Courtesy of Ofer Raban, University of Oregon

Julian Assange, the co-founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with a slew of Espionage Act violations that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life.

The new indictment expands an earlier one charging Assange with conspiring w...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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