Archive for 2010

A Great Short is Setting Up for the Euro

Courtesy of madhedgefundtrader

My guest on Hedge Fund Radio this week is Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at the esteemed Wall Street firm, Brown Brothers Harriman.

Marc says that the next big focus in the foreign exchange markets will be a strengthening US economy and another slow down in Europe.  After one last gasp, that could take the euro as high as $1.45, and a great shorting opportunity will set up that could take it as low as $1.10-$1.15 next year. We won’t see parity until the Fed announces a convincing exit strategy from its monetary easing, which is some time off.

Strong US growth in Q4, 2009 and Q1, 2010 combined with a major European identity and debt crises in the spring prompted many to predict the end of the Euro prematurely, the spot trading all the way down to $1.17 and change. But then a combination of innovation and institutional reform and a bout of weakness in the US saved the day, taking the European currency back up to $1.40.

But its troubles are far from over. The US elections will remove much uncertainty from the dollar just when American growth is reasserting itself, opening the way for another down leg in the euro. A double dip recession, quantitative easing, and better news in Europe are now fully priced in.

Quantitative easing is virtually a sure thing, thanks to a weak US economy. Banks are earning a risk free 25 basis points lending their money back to the government, so money is not making its way it to the main economy. Corporations are cash rich and don’t need to borrow, while small businesses don’t fit into a de risking, deleveraging world.

A lot of the good news is already known for the Australian dollar, including the interest rate differential, the health of the banking system, the commodities boom, and exploding trade with China. The market is running a large long position, and the next piece of positive news, like another interest rate rise in November by the Reserve Bank of Australia, could trigger a bout of profit taking.

The currency war is a myth, a media concoction, and is just rhetoric to get China to revalue its currency sooner. We are not seeing the downward spiral that brought drastic measures, like the Smoot-Hawly Tariff Act of 1930, which…
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Swing trading virtual portfolio – week of October 18th, 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. PLease click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

 

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio





Is the USD selloff poised to reverse?

Courtesy of naufalsanaullah

20101017





The Charts Told You These Stocks Were In Trouble

The Charts Told You These Stocks Were In Trouble

Courtesy of David at allabouttrends.net

Three names we’ve recently featured in our newsletter imploded Thursday. All of these were in the form of trendline breaks to the downside or bearish Pullbacks Off Lows (POL) patterns of stocks that were in overall big picture downtrends. 

CPLA — Capella Education (First featured as a short-sell set-up at 78.71)

COCO — Corinthian Colleges (First featured as a short-sell set-up at 7.19)

LINC — Lincoln Education LINC ( First featured as a short-sell set-up at 14.61)

All along these stocks have been former leaders that are now laggards and has beens — as in past market leaders in the last up cycle that that topped a long time ago. While on the subject of cycles this is always the way it works. A good rule of thumb when dealing with leaders is that of : “Last Cycles Leaders Next Cycles Laggards”

Case in point — CSCO, JNPR and QCOM and countless other tech stocks from the roaring 1999 climax run. Those stocks have never come back and probably never will.
 

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report — “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.”  David’s offering PSW readers a Special, two months at $10 a month. - Ilene     

*******

If signing up for Randy’s free webinar on options strategies (from Schwab), they require responses of $250K or more assets to invest and 36 or more trades per year. 





Reluctant Breadwinners, Downsized Housing; Demographic Pendulum in Motion

Reluctant Breadwinners, Downsized Housing; Demographic Pendulum in Motion

Courtesy of Mish 

ITAR-TASS 02: IRKUTSK REGION, RUSSIA. NOVEMBER 30, 2008. Early twentieth century German pendulum clock with a statuette of Mnemosyne, Greek goddess of memory, on display at the Clock Museum, Angarsk, Irkutsk Region, Russia. (Photo ITAR-TASS / Nikolai Ryutin) Photo via Newscom

Because of losses in construction and manufacturing, unemployment has taken its toll on more men than women. Please consider More Wives Head for Work

Angela Patterson is working as an insurance agent in New York while her husband looks for construction jobs in North Carolina. Diana Gomez had been staying home to care for an ill daughter. When her husband lost his job, she became an administrative assistant in a dentist’s office. Michelle, a social worker and mother of three young children in Baltimore, who asked that her last name not be used, switched from part-time to full-time work when her husband was laid off last year. She kept to that schedule after he found work earlier this year—at two-thirds his former salary.

They are the reluctant breadwinners: Women who wanted to stay home until their income suddenly became critical to the well-being of their families. In some cases they are increasing their hours to keep the bills paid. Others are taking up employment for the first time as their husbands struggle to find work. With the anemic recovery keeping the job outlook uncertain, the accelerated gender shift is likely to stick, creating new challenges for U.S. families.

In a study published this September in the journal Family Relations, researchers Marybeth J. Mattingly and Kristin E. Smith of the University of New Hampshire found that wives were more likely to enter the job market or increase their hours when their husbands were out of work between May 2007 and May 2008 than when their husbands were out of work amid prosperity four years earlier. These women were also three times more likely to enter the labor force than women whose husbands were working and 51 percent more likely to increase their hours. Smith says difficult times may push women to take jobs they wouldn’t consider when the economy is strong. "They have to work," she says. "As families lose their primary breadwinner, they’re making ends meet with a lower-earning spouse."

By now, the impact of the recession on the American male is well chronicled: Men accounted for more than 71 percent of the job losses as sectors like manufacturing and construction were crushed. Even when job losses spread to traditionally female-friendly areas like retail and education, women continued to fare better. The


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Smoking Gun: New Evidence of How Wall Street Shafted Pension Funds by Misrepresenting Mortgages; Rep Miller Calls for Full Audit of Fannie Mae

Smoking Gun: New Evidence of How Wall Street Shafted Pension Funds by Misrepresenting Mortgages; Rep Miller Calls for Full Audit of Fannie Mae

Courtesy of Mish 

Josh Rosner, who heads the research firm Graham Fisher, presents new proof that banks knew they were selling bad loans. The following video is as discussion between Rosner and Elliot Spitzer about the smoking gun and what to do about it. It’s well worth a listen.

Partial Transcript of "Inside Job"

SPITZER: What I would be doing right now would be to drop a subpoena on every investment bank saying, I want to track this information, these documents came from Clayton, the due diligence firm, see where in the company they went, who saw them, who knew about them, who had a conversation about them, and what did they do? And somebody who saw these documents, and as Josh said, saw that there was 29 percent noncompliance and still pushed these mortgages into the security, boom, charge them right there — failure to apply the rigorous standards. Charge them, recover all the money. And this time, I would hope the ax comes done, no bailout, we claim every…

ROSNER: Eliot raised an interesting question: What if the trading desk saw the due diligence documents, knew that 29 percent didn’t meet the underwriting standards, knew that those were sold as securities to investors and then with that knowledge traded against that by going short these securities.

SPITZER: Let me explain what you’re saying, because this is such a huge point. At the hearings and in this movie, there is an outtake of Lloyd Blankfein saying, we traded against the very documents and very mortgages that we sold to the entire investment community, meaning we shorted them, we were betting on them going down, not up. If they did that when they had knowledge from these documents that they we’re now talking about, that in fact they were going to blow up because 29 percent or more were not compliant, that is trading on inside information, could create critical liability. So again, the critical issue is who saw these documents, when, what did they do with that information? This is a swamp, a cesspool and somebody should be dropping 1,000 subpoenas right now on this.

ROSNER: And by the way, this information has been sort of floating around in the ether,


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Wells Fargo Prepares For Tsunami Of Loan Repurchase Demands

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Zero Hedge has obtained Wells Fargo’s brand new confidential protocol guidelines on loan repurchase demands by investors and mortgage insurers, sent out on October 15, and which becomes effective tomorrow. We have reproduced these below to see just how much more “streamlined” the process is, now that the bank is fully aware of the massive liability it faces as a “loan puttable” entity in a world that is suddenly replete with pervasive and rampant title fraud. Amusingly, in the CIM, Wells states: “Wells Fargo is committed – just like you are – to honoring contractual obligations with investors and mortgage insurance (MI) companies*. We want to ensure that the resolution process for Repurchase and Rescissions is as smooth and swift as possible.” And even so, Wells continues to refuse to halt foreclosures knowing full well it would face billions in impairments should it do so voluntarily, even though as we confirmed Warren Buffett’s pet bank was recently caught with its robosigning pants down as well (an event which was sufficient for everyone else to invoke a self-imposed moratorium, even Goldman, whose Litton Loan Servicing unit was rumored to have serviced about 4 or 5 mortgages in the past century… but not the California real estate monster). What is critical, is that Wells Fargo admits that should all avenues under existing legal guidelines be exhausted, and robofraud is certainly a dealbreaker that can not be “explained or validated away”, then the bank will be forced to repurchase the loan. In other words, starting tomorrow Wells is preparing for the loan repruchase tsunami to hit the fan as investors and insurers everywhere swamp the bank with tens if not hundreds of billions of repurchase and recissions demands. Suck it in, Wells investors.

Here is the simplified flowchart that will end up costing the bank pretty much all of its balance sheet cash. The only question is how soon.

Step 1

Wells Fargo receives a deficiency notice or demand from the investor
. Typically, Wells Fargo has 60 days to resolve the issue.

Step 2

Wells Fargo notifies the Seller and provides supporting documentation when available. At this time, the Seller is given twenty-one calendar days to provide an explanation, facts or documentation to demonstrate that the mortgage loan complies with the requirements. If the Seller does not respond within


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Has the Fed Painted Itself Into a Corner?

Has the Fed Painted Itself Into a Corner?

Courtesy of Yves Smith

[unclescrooge.jpg]A couple of articles in the Wall Street Journal, reporting on a conference at the Boston Fed, indicates that some people at the Fed may recognize that the central bank has boxed itself in more than a tad.

The first is on the question of whether the Fed is in a liquidity trap. A lot of people, based on the experience of Japan, argued that resolving and restructuring bad loans was a necessary to avoid a protracted economic malaise after a severe financial crisis. But the Fed has consistently clung to the myth that the financial meltdown of 2007-2008 was a liquidity, not a solvency crisis. So rather than throw its weight behind real financial reform and cleaning up bank balance sheets (which would require admitting the obvious, that its policies prior to the crisis were badly flawed), it instead has treated liquidity as the solution to any and every problem.

Some commentators were concerned when the Fed lowered policy rates below 2%, but there we so many other experiments implemented during the acute phases that this particular shift has been pretty much overlooked. But overly low rates leaves the Fed nowhere to go if demand continues to be slack, as it is now.

Note that the remarks by Chicago Fed president John Evans still hew to conventional forms: the Fed needs to create inflation expectations, and needs to be prepared to overshoot.

This seems to ignore some pretty basic considerations. First, the US is suffering from a great deal of unemployment and excess productive capacity. The idea that inflation fears are going to lead to a resumption of spending (ie anticipatory spending because the value of money will fall in the future) isn’t terribly convincing. Labor didn’t have much bargaining power before the crisis, and it has much less now. Some might content the Fed is already doing a more than adequate job of feeding commodities inflation (although record wheat prices are driven by largely by fundamentals).

From the Wall Street Journal, “Fed’s Evans: U.S. in ‘Bona Fide Liquidity Trap’”:

The Federal Reserve may have to let inflation overshoot levels consistent with price stability as part of a broader attempt to help stimulate the economy, a U.S. central bank official said Saturday.

“The U.S. economy is best described as being in a bona


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Weekly Recap, And Upcoming Calendar – Here Are The Main Events To Look For

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Week in Review – QE2 and Asian FX Stays in the Spotlight
Following the IMF and G7 meetings last weekend, most markets continued along the patterns seen in recent weeks. Stocks continued to grind higher, the Dollar weakened, and Asian currencies strengthened.
 
The main focus last week was again on QE2 with a number of key speeches strengthening the market view that significant additional easing will be delivered at the next Fed meeting. The likely implications on the US Dollar dominated FX related discussions. Within this theme, one highlight was the quarterly monetary policy meeting in Singapore which ended with the decision to accelerate the pace of trade weighted SGD appreciation. In light of recently weaker Singaporean data this was a big surprise and hence seen as one of the strongest signs that Asian policymakers may become sufficiently confident to do their bit to rebalance the global economy. Notably lower fixes in $/CNY added to this flavour, while the US Treasury decision on Friday to delay the publication of the semi-annual currency report adds to the political pressure ahead of the G20 finance ministers meeting next week-end. We remain short $/CNY in our tactical recommendations – but having reached our initial 4% return target last week, we have shifted to a trailing stop.
 
Last week’s data remained mixed overall. The US trade balance was wider, and initial claims higher than expected after a few weeks of small improvements. The preliminary reading of the U Michigan consumer sentiment was weaker, though US retail sales and the Empire survey surprised to the upside. Eurozone industrial production was stronger than expected. The batch of China data showed more lending, though external trade appeared to slow.
 
Week Ahead – More on QE2, Asian FX and Business Surveys
Four issues will likely preoccupy markets in the upcoming week. QE2, Asian FX, business surveys, and maybe French politics.
 
Market participants will continue to scrutinize any news relating to the upcoming Fed decision on QE2 and the extent to which the FOMC will manage to surprise markets, given that a fair amount of QE appears priced across asset classes. 
 
The upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting will be the second focus for FX markets. The evolution of daily $/CNY fixes will be key and the impact on the trade weighted CNY. We think the Chinese authorities need to show at least some genuine…
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ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS

ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Felix Zulauf provided some excellent macro thoughts in a recent interview with King World news. Zulauf believes gold is in a secular bull market, but that the near-term move is overextended. More specifically, Zulauf says the downside in the dollar is overdone and he foresees a dollar rally into the year-end. This will cause a correction in most assets – equities, commodities and gold. He says the correction in gold as a buying opportunity, however.

As always, Zulauf’s thoughts are a must listen.  You can see the full interview here:

Source: King World News 


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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