Ballsy or Crazy? Where Are We On Inflation and Hyperinflation

February 7, 2011

70

For better or worse, in the financial blogosphere, I’m Hyperinflation Boy.

You decide.

I haven’t actually written that much on the subject: Only five posts from a total of 82 over the last year. I posted the most recent one back in late October—over three months ago—where I made a series of concrete predictions about inflation and hyperinflation of the U.S. dollar.

The predictions were either really ballsy or really stupid—even I can’t quite decide. But be that as it may, it’s only fair and right to revisit the subject, recapitulate my arguments, and then check to see if I was on the money, or full of shit.

To begin: Last August 23, I posted an article called How Hyperinflation Will Happen. I guess the piece must’ve struck a nerve, because between my site and a couple of other places where it was reprinted, it got over half a million page views.

My basic thesis was simple: If there is another financial crisis, I argued that capital would not flee to Treasury bonds—instead, it would flow to commodities. And this spike in commodity prices would lead to dollar hyperinflation.

This argument seemed not just counter-intuitive—it appeared to fly directly in the face of empirical evidence: In the Panic of ‘08, Treasuries shot the moon, as people exited equities and every other risk asset—including commodities and precious metals—and ran for the safety of Treasuries. As an added bonus, the U.S. dollar shot up, bouyed by this rush to a safe haven.

Therefore, in another market crisis, it would seem reasonable to expect a similar outcome: Capital flows exiting whatever asset class was considered risky—as well as a few that were clearly not risky—and going to the safety of Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.

However, my point was that—between the deteriorating U.S. fiscal situation, as well as the Federal Reserve’s fast-and-loose money policies—Treasury bonds were the likely source of the next global financial crisis.