Bear Turns to Bull

During the Great Financial Crisis, I updated this chart overlay on a daily basis. I retired it over a year ago, but I continue to post occasional updates on request. So here it is again, this time in response to some discussion at Seeking Alpha.

Since inflation is a favorite topic on this website, I’ve also updated a set of charts to facilitate a comparison of the nominal and real declines. See also my logarithmic scale view of the “Four Bad Bears” comparison.

For charts of S&P 500 bear market and recoveries since 1950, see this series (see links at top).

For a better sense of how these cycles figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets, adjusted for inflation, in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.