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Sunday, April 28, 2024

Japan’s Post-Bubble Rallies With a Postscript on Earthquakes

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: This update includes a postscript with charts highlighting the Nikkei performance since the earthquake on March 11, a bit over five months ago.


Here is a look at the Nikkei 225 which gives an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan’s secular bear market, now in its 21st year.


 

 

I’ve been posting weekly updates of a mega-bear market charts (here and here) that include Japan’s Nikkei 225. In addition, every few months I update an inflation-adjusted overlay of the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 bubbles.

The table below documents the advances and declines and the elapsed time for each cycle.

 

Nikkei 225 Advances and Declines

 

The Earthquake of 2011

The chart below shows the market reaction to the earthquake of March 11. I’ve started the chart in 2007 so that we can put the reaction to the quake in the larger context of the market behavior since the 2007 interim high prior to the Financial Crisis.

 

 

And to close this retrospective, here is the opening chart with two earthquakes highlighted — the 2011 event and the Kobe earthquake of 1995.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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