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S&P 500 Snapshot: Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 popped at the open, faltered briefly, and rallied to an intraday high up 1.35% from yesterday’s close. But after about three hours of sideways motion, the index gradually gave up the gains and closed with a fractional loss, down 0.17%.

The index is in the red year-to-date at -4.42%, which is 11.85% below the interim high set on April 29.

From an intermediate perspective, the index is 77.7% above the March 2009 closing low and 23.2% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 


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