Courtesy of Doug Short.
Every month the Wall Street Journal surveys a few dozen economists to get their opinions on a variety of hot topics. The survey also asks for forecasts on a regular set of economic indicators: 10-Year Yields, Fed Funds Rate, GDP, CPI, Unemployment Rate, Housing Starts, Crude Oil, Payrolls, and Home Prices.
Now that the August survey results are available (in Excel format here), I spent a few minutes this morning reviewing the forecasts for GDP and 10-year yields. The chart below illustrates the responses of the 55 economists solicited in the August survey. The number responding per question ranged from 44 to 47.
WSJ Economists’ GDP Forecasts
For more perspective on GDP, see the following:
WSJ Economists’ GDP 10-Year Yield Forecasts
At Friday’s close, the 10-year yield stood at 2.24%. That’s 59 basis points below the average of the economists’ forecasts for year-end 2011, 96 basis points below 2012 mid-year and 130 basis points below the year-end 2012 average forecast. We’ll review these estimates from time to time.
For more perspective on Treasuries, see the following:
