Courtesy of Doug Short.
Big day tomorrow! We get our first read on Q2 GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. What are the mainstream economists expecting? Every month the Wall Street Journal surveys a few dozen economists to get their opinions on a variety of hot topics. The survey also asks for forecasts on a regular set of economic indicators: 10-Year Yields, Fed Funds Rate, GDP, CPI, Unemployment Rate, Housing Starts, Crude oil, Payrolls, Home Prices.
The July survey is available in Excel format here. I’ve made a little snapshot to help us understand what these mainstream professional eoconomists are forecasting for quarterly GDP for the rest of the year. The chart below illustrates the responses of the 55 economists solicited in the July survey. The callouts show the average of responses for each of the three quarters. The markers are arranged from low to high for each quarter so we get a clear idea of the distribution of responses.
The 1.9 average estimate for Q2 puts us smack on the BEA’s Q1 Final Estimate of 1.9, but the range is rather striking — from 0.9 to 3.2. Also interesting is the inference we can make about the general optimism of the surveyed economists about the second half of the year. They see Q2 as a continuation of the Q1 soft patch but with with a strong rebound thereafter. In fact, the average GDP estimate of 3.1 for Q3 and Q4 is the top of the Q2 range, and a couple of cheerful economists see a 5 handle on GDP in the second half of 2011.
Tomorrow’s BEA release will have an added dimension of interest because it will also include GDP revisions for the past three years:
On July 29, 2011, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the results of the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) together with the advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2011. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2011, this “flexible” annual revision will result in revisions to GDP and some components back to the first quarter of 2003.
See this BEA PDF file (page 6) for more details.
