Courtesy of Doug Short.
Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages I track before the market opens on the last business day of the month. All of the S&P 500 and four of the five Ivy Portfolio ETF monthly moving averages are giving a “sell” signal. The one change from last month is that DBC, the commodity index, has flipped to a sell signal.
Note: The index updates are intended to illustrate the moving moving-average timing strategy. They also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, followers of a moving average strategy should make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not a broad index. Even if you’re investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard’s VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment.
The Ivy Portfolio
The top table previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio.
I’m also included the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests I’ve received to include this slightly longer timeframe.
After the end-of-month market close, I’ll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.
The bottom line, as we’ve pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They’re not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.
Note: See the Timing Updates for interim updates throughout the month.
