Archive for September, 2011

Russ Certo: “Fire In The Hole”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Gleacher’s head of rates, Russ Certo

Fire In The Hole

Not rocket science but perusing my launchpad observing bleeding indicators which reveal more carnage (than usual) today which are the underbelly of seemingly contained or benign moves in headline equity indices. First notable observation is that commodities are getting whacked.  Wheat down 7.22%, corn down 6.32%, sugar, copper down 3.5% and the list goes on… This likely represents CHINA slowdown.  We talked about this in earlier notes and watch out for that Chinese PMI print tomorrow that you won’t get to trade til Monday.

Oil just broke below $80/barrel AGAIN.  Guessing some stops running and could continue.  Been down here before. It feels like it can break lower and I’m thinking of Copper down 25% ish in a month due to economic slowdown/increased chances of recession. 

Kodak on the verge of filing, and lost 27% of its market cap.   But good stuff getting hit like Tiffany. This concerns me as U.S. GDP is 70% consumption and high net worth would likely be 68% of that, decidedly not WalMart.  Some times you hit bids that are fully valued and despite silver being up today the gold/silver/metals space has been liquidated for a variety of reasons recently and from a variety of players, but its all about liquidity.  Like Tiffany?  Retail stocks today and recently? Like selling Alt-A at par or moving your shorts up the capital structure or coupon stack years ago versus hitting a down CMBX or ABX synthetic index.  Sell what you can, what is fully valued to extract alpha.

International banks/financials getting trashed as UBS/ING down 8+% and the rest of the lot following suit.  Any number of Basil capital requirements, financial transaction surcharges, or collateral damage of operating businesses.  Just a note on this topic as U.S. financials not faring well either but something is brewing in quarter end.  It is clear that BWICs in subprime or ABS space are validating or exposing dysfunctionality in banking, balance sheets and markets.  Even vanilla pass-thrus LAGGING by anywheres of 20 ticks today.  Homebuilders are homely today, down as much as 6% selectively. 

If the equity crowd only knew how difficult it is to trade financial instruments in secondary markets (or primary markets with IPOs non-existent and IG…
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Coach Options Embossed With Bearish Paw Prints

Today’s tickers: COH, BIG & MOLX

COH - Coach, Inc. – Concern that growth may be slowing in China sparked selling pressure in shares of luxury goods retailers such as Coach, Inc. this week. Shares in the largest U.S. luxury leather goods seller fell 0.90% to $53.51 on Friday afternoon, adding to Thursday’s losses of roughly 6.0%. A three-legged options trade initiated on the stock this morning suggests one strategist expects shares to continue to decline in the next couple of months. The trader may be assuming an outright bearish or protective stance on Coach ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report on October 25.

The investor appears to have sold 1,100 calls at the Nov. $57.5 strike for a premium of $2.50 each, in order to offset the cost of buying the 1,100-lot bearish Nov. $43/$50 put spread purchased at a net premium of $2.20 per contract. The trader pockets a net credit of $0.30 per contract on the transaction, which he keeps in full as long as shares in Coach fail to rally above $57.50 at expiration. Additional profits are available to the investor should COH’s shares fall 6.6% from the current price of $53.51 to breach $50.00. Maximum potential profits of $7.30 per contract, including the net credit of $0.30, pad the investor’s hand-stitched fine Italian leather wallet if the stock drops 19.6% to settle beneath $43.00 a share at November expiration.

The bear put spread normally limits an investor’s maximum loss potential to the net premium paid, however, the addition of the short calls introduces additional risk to the position. If…
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Occupy Wall Street: Rise Up and Burn This System to the Ground

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Long before a tidal wave ever hits, it starts off as a ripple event, an ocean apart from its eventual impact. Over the vast expanses, it gains speed and power. It picks up, essentially, support from every molecule of water it rolls over, until finally — BOOM — it crashes, unexpectedly into the world.

The Occupy Wall Street movement is building in much the same way, and will have much the same impact on Wall Street, on Washington, and on the elites in America who control the wealth and believe they have an iron grip on the lives and fortunes of the citizens of America.

For decades, starting with Ronald Reagan’s election, the wealthy right wing in this country has used any means necessary to plunder wealth and financial security from Americans, poor or middle class, black or white.

They have broken union after union; they have spent vast fortunes of money — our money — bailing out the very banks who have conspired to rig the system against you. They have raped the environment because clean air isn’t profitable. They have polluted oceans and rivers because regulations “cost jobs”. They have moved millions of jobs overseas because, well, because they can. Congress lets them. The President lets them.

They throw people out of work and then call them bums for needing unemployment insurance. They cut off the insurance, refuse to hire anyone currently unemployed, and call them lazy. They cut health insurance and then complain that their workers are sick and miss work.

They cut wages and then act surprised when citizens ask government to supplement their minimal existence. They reap record profits (literally, record profits) and then cut wages, refuse to hire, and give themselves lavish bonuses. The average CEO now makes more in a year than you will in your entire lifetime.

They demand increased worker productivity and then keep every penny of those increases. They freeze wages, inflate prices, and laugh as Americans blame themselves for an economic predicament not of their choosing.

And now, they’re coming after your retirement fund and your old-age health insurance fund. They refer to Social Security as a welfare program and a Ponzi Scheme, when in fact, it is a retirement…
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KoDaK’S LaST MoMeNT

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

LAST KODAK MOMENT

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Is Kodak on the Brink of Bankruptcy?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

With the Wall Street Journal reporting today that Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) has hired law firm Jones Day for restructuring advice, concerns are increasing from investors that a turnaround is unlikely.

As of 14.40 on Friday, EK was trading at $0.60, A loss of well over 50% from the $1.69 it was trading at yesterday.

According to the WSJ, “Kodak, whose operations burned $847 million in the first half of the year, had $957 million in cash on June 30. It aims to have $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion on hand at the end of the year, but that target presumes successful asset sales, patent income and improvements in the company’s businesses.”

“We’re a large company, and we employ a number of outside consultants. We don’t itemize who those consultants are or what they do for us,” Kodak spokesman Gerard Meuchner told WSJ. “As we sit here today, the company has no intention of filing for bankruptcy.”

Business Insider ranked EK at number 3 in its 15 Companies Most Likely To Declare Bankruptcy feature, and that predictions seems to be edging ominously closer.





Presenting Eastman Kodak’s Main ‘Value Investors’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As EK is halted on news that it is considering patent sales and potential bankruptcy (very much in line with the expectations CDS markets have had for a while), we present the professional falling-knife-catchers (sorry value investors) who owned the most at the end of Q2. Has anyone heard from Bill Miller today? Largest holder was LMM LLC (yes that Legg Mason). Or is Bill Miller preparing for a speech at some Value Investing Shindig?

With the short-dated bullet bond trading $44 – down 50% on the week – it seems the events have caught a lot of people by surprise…though CDS cracked on Monday and has shifted from 35/36% upfront to 64/65% upfront now – seems like equity-holders clung to ‘hope’ just a little too long.

Chart: Bloomberg





POMO…. It’s BAAAAAAAAACK

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

You didn’t think the Fed would let more than a few months pass without the much beloved and dearly missed near-daily POMOs now did you. The FRBNY’s Brian Sacksters just released the October schedule of $44 billion in long-dated purchases, and $44 billion in short-dated sales. Since the net effect to banks is one of derisking, the offsetting rerisk will be implemented in the form of more stock purchases. Hopefully their prop desks (which no longer exist, right, after all the whole Volcker Rule thing and the UBS fiasco…) will know how to trade Netflix this time around better than last time.

POMO buy dates and amounts:

And POMO sell dates and amounts.





Wall Street Protest: Time for Conservative Endorsements

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Big Liberal Endorsements for Wall Street Protest

Given that numerous unions (and see this) and progressive luminaries like Cornell West, Michael Moore, Bernie Sanders and Russel Simmons are joining the Wall Street protest, this may be painted by some as a “left-wing movement”.

Conservatives Support Protests

Of course, United Airlines pilots are not a particularly liberal group, but they joined in.

Indeed, conservatives such as Dylan Ratigan, Karl Denninger, and supporters of Ron Paul have also joined in to the protests.

The Divide-And-Conquer Technique Is Failing

I’ve repeatedly warned that there is a scripted, psuedo-war between
Dems and Repubs, liberals and conservatives which is in reality a
false divide-and-conquer dog-and-pony show created by the powers
that be to keep the American people divided and distracted. See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this and this. (In fact, the Founding Fathers warned us about the threat from a two party system.)

The Tea Party was quickly co-opted by the Republican Party:

Remember that one of the founders of the Tea Party – Karl Denninger – has slammed
the current Tea Party (which was quickly co-opted by the mainstream
GOP) for serving the rich and the Republican party instead of fighting
against the giant banks, and is calling for non-partisan, Gandhi-style nonviolent resistance to take on the banskters.

Don’t let the Wall Street protests get hijacked by the mainstream Democratic Party.

Time for Big Conservative Endorsements

This is not a liberal or a conservative cause … it is both.

It is time for some big conservative endorsements, to rally around the non-partisan issues important to all Americans.

The Tea Party should endorse the protests, but so should the Oath
Keepers, taxpayer rights groups, conservative Christians, limited
government groups, and all other conservative groups.

A sign from the Wall Street protest shows that the people on the ground get it:

WSsign2 Wall Street Protest: Time for Conservative Endorsements





Buffett Says European Bank(s) Have Asked Him For Money

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Buffett hemmed and hewed in his usual populist rhetoric, discussing how multi-billionaires can afford to be generous with other people’s tax rates, all of it completely unremarkable and highly hypocritical, the Octogenarian did release, whether by accident or on purpose, something quite critical, namely that European banks have approached him with requests for money.  From Bloomberg: “They need capital in their banks, in many of their banks,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive officer, told Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu on “In the Loop” today. “We would not be a good prospect,” he said in an interview from the New York Stock Exchange. He’s received “very, very few” calls about putting capital into European banks. “Not quite none at all,” he said, declining to name any institutions.”And that, as they say, is a word out of place, because while one my pretend that borrowing $500MM from the ECBs Fed swap line is really just an (inverse) arb on Libor or some other useless excuse, a bank begging for Buffett to take a bath can not be explained away.

Furthermore, since something tells us La Troisieme Banque d’Avignon does not have Warren on speed dial. So yeah, now begins the great scramble to figure out just who it is that can not even rely on the Fed or ECB for funding, but has to rush all the way to the”Really Poor Man’s” central bank, located in downtown Omaha. And the inevitable risk flaring in Europe which will result once this latest data is processed will certainly lead to even more weakness for Bank of America. Which begs the question: why is Buffett trying to push his own investments lower with careless words: accelerate dementia or an attempt to double down on BAC shares at even lower prices?

As for bank [X], the Oracle had bad news:

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Warren Buffett, who has sold most of his company’s holdings of European sovereign debt, said his firm isn’t interested in helping to bail out lenders on the continent.

 

Berkshire sold most of its European holdings about year and a half ago, the billionaire said today on CNBC. A German reinsurance unit still holds some bonds from that nation, and Berkshire is “fine” with the investment, he


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‘Real’ Disposable Income Per Capita: Down 0.4% from Last Month

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier today I posted my monthly update of the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. My focus was on PCE data as a measure of inflation.

Now let’s look at the PCE data to understand what the latest numbers are telling us about a key driver of the U.S. economy: "Real" Disposable Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000.


 

 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) use the average dollar value in 2005 for inflation adjustment. But the 2005 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let’s compare the nominal and real growth in per capita disposable income since 2000. Do you recall what you we’re doing on New Year’s Eve at the turn of the millennium? Nominal disposable income is up 46.6% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up a mere 13.9%.

In fact, real disposable personal income is at a level first attained in October 2006 and remains about 1.2% below the level at the beginning the 2007-2009 recession. Real DPI has remained essentially flat for the past 12 months, down 0.5%.

 

 

The mainstream media focuses on nominal disposable income with little or no attention to population or inflation adjustment. Thus today’s business headlines speak of a 0.1 percent MoM decline in disposable income versus the 0.4% decrease when population and inflation are included. The “real” story in the latest PCE data is one of continued economic weakness.


Note: My source for the recent data is the BEA Table 1 in the full release available here. Earlier data is from FRED, the St. Louis Federal Reserve database: available here.

 

 

 

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Has E.T. Gone Home?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

UFO sightings have been making headlines again lately, notably with The New York Times running an interesting article about several U.S. Navy fighter pilots encountering mysterious objects near the southeastern coast of the United States.

That high-profile story remains unexplained and so do plenty of other UFO sightings reported by members of the public every year like strange lights crossing the night sky or orange disks hovering in the distance.

However, as Sta...



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Phil's Favorites

Food waste: using sustainable innovation to cut down what we throw away

 

Food waste: using sustainable innovation to cut down what we throw away

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Mehrnaz Tajmir, University of Bath and Baris Yalabik, University of Bath

Our appetite for food is a serious problem. The huge amount of energy, land and water used to fill our supermarket shelves mean that modern overproduction and excessive consumerism are rapidly depleting resources and damaging the planet.

Yet still, more than one-third of the world’s food...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper Is Pushing Higher Off 18-Year Rising Support, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold & Silver have been hot of late! Is Doc Copper about to do the same? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at Copper Futures over the past 27-years. Copper has spent the majority of that time inside of rising channel (1).

The decline over the past year has Doc Copper testing 18-year rising support and lows of the past 8-months at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- Copper is attempting to rally off of long-term support at (3). As Copper is testing the bottom of this support channel, smart money hedgers are making a bi...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 19, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Upgrades
  • For American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG), William Blair upgraded the previous rating of Market Perform to the current rating Outperform. American International Gr earned $1.58 in the first quarter, compared to $1.04 in the year-ago quarter. American International Gr's market-cap stands at $48,358,299,270. At the moment, the stock has a 52-week-high of $56.49 and a 52-week-low of $36.16. American International Gr c...


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Chart School

RTT Plus Chart Book (Sneak Peak)

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The magic of support and resistance channel lines and how they direct price. Here are some chart disclosed to members via the RTT Plus service. All charts are a few weeks old. 


XAU bound by parallel channel lines.


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Newmont Mining support from Gann Angles.



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US Dollar index (DXY) dominate cycle ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Suddenly Panic-Bid, Bitcoin Back Above $10k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following further selling pressure overnight, someone (or more than one) has decided to buy-the-dip in cryptos this morning, sending Bitcoin (and most of the altcoins) soaring...

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin surged back above $10,000...

Ethereum bounced off suppo...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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