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Saturday, May 4, 2024

World Markets Weekend Review: Downside Volatility

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Other than the strong 2.22% gain in the Shanghai Composite, the indexes in our international focus group finished in the red, with the DAX and CAC 40 posting 6% or greater losses. The other Euroland index, the FTSE, lost over 3%. The Nikkei and S&P 500 finished in the middle of the pack with losses of 2.5% to 2.75%. What a difference from the previous week, when our international gang of eight posted an average gain of 6%. The volatility around the world has been quite remarkable — this week to the downside.

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these seven major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai, Hang Seng) is readily apparent.

Check back next weekend for a new update.

 

 

 

 

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