Courtesy of Doug Short.
This morning’s release of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index gave a positive spin to the economy, but the market apparently shared Mish Shedlock’s opinion of the data. The S&P 500 finished flat or, to be precise, down 0.04%. With four out of the five daily finishes in the red, the index lost 3.81% for the week. That’s the worst weekly performance in eight weeks.
The index is now down 3.34% for the year and 10.85% off the interim high of April 29. It’s about eight points above its 50-day moving average of 1206.78, which technicians would see as potential support.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 79.7% above the March 2009 closing low and 22.3% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
